Another cancellation thread.

What should I do?

Cancel
5
20%
Don't cancel
20
80%
 
Total votes: 25

vicuna
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Another cancellation thread.

Postby vicuna » Tue Jun 08, 2010 4:29 pm

Okay, so I have a 3.7 at an Ivy and I've been PTing around the 171-175 range. I am hoping for CCN. However, on the June 2010 test, I was tripped up by both the Mulch game and the Intern game. I ended up figuring out the Mulch game (though I could've missed one) but had to guess on the final three questions on the Intern game. To make matters worse, I uncharacteristically had to guess on the last two questions of RC. On the plus side, I felt pretty good about LR. Typically, when I PT, I miss 1-2 on RC, 2-4 on LR, and 0-2 on LG.

Do I even have a decent chance at a 170? Should I cancel? Does CCN average LSAT scores?

Please advise.

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bedefan
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Re: Another cancellation thread.

Postby bedefan » Tue Jun 08, 2010 4:42 pm

vicuna wrote:Okay, so I have a 3.7 at an Ivy and I've been PTing around the 171-175 range. I am hoping for CCN. However, on the June 2010 test, I was tripped up by both the Mulch game and the Intern game. I ended up figuring out the Mulch game (though I could've missed one) but had to guess on the final three questions on the Intern game. To make matters worse, I uncharacteristically had to guess on the last two questions of RC. On the plus side, I felt pretty good about LR. Typically, when I PT, I miss 1-2 on RC, 2-4 on LR, and 0-2 on LG.

Do I even have a decent chance at a 170? Should I cancel? Does CCN average LSAT scores?

Please advise.


If you assume worst reasonable case on all the sections, based on the numbers you supplied, that's -2 + -2 RC, -4 on LR, and -3 + -2 on LG. That puts you at -13.

If you assume best reasonable case, that's -2 + -1 on RC, -2 on LR, and -2 + 0 on LG, for a -7.

If you think you're between a -7 and a -13, then yes, you have a decent chance (50/50) of getting a 170 or higher, assuming a curve of -10. If the curve is easier, then you have a pretty good chance of getting a 170 or higher.

vicuna
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Re: Another cancellation thread.

Postby vicuna » Tue Jun 08, 2010 6:04 pm

That's a fair analysis. Moreover, on the positive side, one of the reasons that I had trouble finishing two sections is that I was especially meticulous when answering previous questions. Perhaps this will be to my benefit.
Last edited by vicuna on Tue Jun 08, 2010 6:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

jarofsoup
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Re: Another cancellation thread.

Postby jarofsoup » Tue Jun 08, 2010 6:13 pm

Don't cancel you had to guess on only 4?

So theoretically you could have gotten -3 and got 1 guess right.

vicuna
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Re: Another cancellation thread.

Postby vicuna » Tue Jun 08, 2010 8:46 pm

Could anyone who voted against canceling provide their reasoning? I'm currently leaning toward canceling. My rationale is that I never have to blindly guess on PT's, so it is unlikely that I score even at my average. And with a sub-170 score and a 3.7, my chances at the T6, much less the T10, are slim.

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TCScrutinizer
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Re: Another cancellation thread.

Postby TCScrutinizer » Tue Jun 08, 2010 9:04 pm

I would not cancel, and retake if I didn't like the result. You only guessed on four questions. You could be canceling a -4, and then you'd feel like a royal jackass.

vicuna
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Re: Another cancellation thread.

Postby vicuna » Tue Jun 08, 2010 9:31 pm

TCScrutinizer wrote:I would not cancel, and retake if I didn't like the result. You only guessed on four questions. You could be canceling a -4, and then you'd feel like a royal jackass.


I blindly guessed on five questions. There were a couple of others that I narrowed it down to two and took a swing at it. Even when this doesn't happen and I feel relatively confident after a PT, I usually fall into the 171-173 range. So, given these factors, I feel that my chances at a 170+ score are quite slim.

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TCScrutinizer
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Re: Another cancellation thread.

Postby TCScrutinizer » Tue Jun 08, 2010 11:03 pm

vicuna wrote:
TCScrutinizer wrote:I would not cancel, and retake if I didn't like the result. You only guessed on four questions. You could be canceling a -4, and then you'd feel like a royal jackass.


I blindly guessed on five questions. There were a couple of others that I narrowed it down to two and took a swing at it. Even when this doesn't happen and I feel relatively confident after a PT, I usually fall into the 171-173 range. So, given these factors, I feel that my chances at a 170+ score are quite slim.


You know yourself better than I do, of course. Unless you have your heart set on a school that takes an average, I still wouldn't cancel.

vicuna
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Re: Another cancellation thread.

Postby vicuna » Tue Jun 08, 2010 11:16 pm

Well, I really like NYU and Columbia, but apparently they both average. Which others T14 average?

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Richie Tenenbaum
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Re: Another cancellation thread.

Postby Richie Tenenbaum » Wed Jun 09, 2010 12:15 am

Hard to say. I was able to get a 174 on last years June test with 2 blind guesses and one 50/50 on LG and a few more than average 50/50 guesses on RC, but LR was always my best section and I usually missed between 1 and 3 questions on games (ended up getting -2 on test day since I got lucky with the random guess and missed the 50/50 one).

If you have the free time to devote to studying a lot this summer, then canceling might be a wise decision. Try to see if you can get a job with a test prep company that hires people with unofficial scores or try tutoring (both of these might be difficult to do without an official score, depending on your location).

NYU and Columbia say they still usually average, but both have taken plenty of people with 2 scores the past 2 cycles. Chicago says they put the greater weight on the higher score. I will say having 3 scores probably was one of the biggest factors in me getting WL'd at both Chicago and NYU (esp NYU, since they are more numbers based and Chicago may have just been turned off by my unknown undergrad and lack of softs).

I believe you would still have a shot at CCN with 2 scores on your record, even if it was something like 172 and 175. Applying with multiple scores does add a bit more stress and worrying to the process though since it's another variable you have to try and account for.

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Richie Tenenbaum
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Re: Another cancellation thread.

Postby Richie Tenenbaum » Wed Jun 09, 2010 12:19 am

vicuna wrote:Well, I really like NYU and Columbia, but apparently they both average. Which others T14 average?


The only other T14 (excluding HY) I remember saying that they typically average is GULC, but I think they might be full of it.

Wish I could give you a clear answer on whether I think you should cancel or not, but it really seems to close to call from an outside perrspective.

vicuna
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Re: Another cancellation thread.

Postby vicuna » Wed Jun 09, 2010 12:27 am

Richie Tenenbaum wrote:
vicuna wrote:Well, I really like NYU and Columbia, but apparently they both average. Which others T14 average?


The only other T14 (excluding HY) I remember saying that they typically average is GULC, but I think they might be full of it.

Wish I could give you a clear answer on whether I think you should cancel or not, but it really seems to close to call from an outside perrspective.


I've got a 50 hours a week job (not at a test prep company) from mid-June to mid-August. I go back to college in early September. Does that change anything?

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Ragged
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Re: Another cancellation thread.

Postby Ragged » Wed Jun 09, 2010 12:32 am

vicuna wrote:Okay, so I have a 3.7 at an Ivy and I've been PTing around the 171-175 range. I am hoping for CCN. However, on the June 2010 test, I was tripped up by both the Mulch game and the Intern game. I ended up figuring out the Mulch game (though I could've missed one) but had to guess on the final three questions on the Intern game. To make matters worse, I uncharacteristically had to guess on the last two questions of RC. On the plus side, I felt pretty good about LR. Typically, when I PT, I miss 1-2 on RC, 2-4 on LR, and 0-2 on LG.

Do I even have a decent chance at a 170? Should I cancel? Does CCN average LSAT scores?

Please advise.


I would not cancel if I were you. I think you have a good shot at 170+ unless something else went horribly wrong for you. I guessed on 8 and still not canceling.

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Richie Tenenbaum
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Re: Another cancellation thread.

Postby Richie Tenenbaum » Wed Jun 09, 2010 12:48 am

vicuna wrote:
Richie Tenenbaum wrote:
vicuna wrote:Well, I really like NYU and Columbia, but apparently they both average. Which others T14 average?


The only other T14 (excluding HY) I remember saying that they typically average is GULC, but I think they might be full of it.

Wish I could give you a clear answer on whether I think you should cancel or not, but it really seems to close to call from an outside perrspective.


I've got a 50 hours a week job (not at a test prep company) from mid-June to mid-August. I go back to college in early September. Does that change anything?


Yes it does. I would be much less likely to cancel then. Unless you think you would be able to find the time to not only keep up where you are currently at, but actually improve your performance in all sections, it might be better to see if you cracked 170 with this test. If CCN is your dream though, keep in mind you you should want at least a 171/172 for Chicago and NYU and at least a 172/173 for Columbia.

How much time do you think you could devote to studying again? You need to improve your LR range if you do find some free time.

vicuna
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Re: Another cancellation thread.

Postby vicuna » Wed Jun 09, 2010 12:55 am

Richie Tenenbaum wrote:
vicuna wrote:
Richie Tenenbaum wrote:
vicuna wrote:Well, I really like NYU and Columbia, but apparently they both average. Which others T14 average?


The only other T14 (excluding HY) I remember saying that they typically average is GULC, but I think they might be full of it.

Wish I could give you a clear answer on whether I think you should cancel or not, but it really seems to close to call from an outside perrspective.


I've got a 50 hours a week job (not at a test prep company) from mid-June to mid-August. I go back to college in early September. Does that change anything?


Yes it does. I would be much less likely to cancel then. Unless you think you would be able to find the time to not only keep up where you are currently at, but actually improve your performance in all sections, it might be better to see if you cracked 170 with this test. If CCN is your dream though, keep in mind you you should want at least a 171/172 for Chicago and NYU and at least a 172/173 for Columbia.

How much time do you think you could devote to studying again? You need to improve your LR range if you do find some free time.


I probably could only a manage a practice test a week while working this summer. During mid-August to early-September, I could put in 5-8 hours a day presumably, though I also have to work on my applications. I'm taking fewer classes that I normally do this fall, so I probably could do a decent amount of studying in September.

As far as prep goes, I took a Kaplan course from February-May (though it was kind of worthless and since I was in school, I didn't take the homework very seriously), went through both Powerscore Bibles, and completed nine practice tests total. On my last PT before the test, I made a 174, but with only -1 on LG and -2 on RC. I basically didn't start studying in earnest until mid-May, however. I feel like there is potentially room for improvement.

Though I'd really like to go to NYU, I would settle for something in the MVP tier or GULC. What are the chances that I could talk my way out of a poor score with NYU in an addendum?

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Richie Tenenbaum
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Re: Another cancellation thread.

Postby Richie Tenenbaum » Wed Jun 09, 2010 1:18 am

vicuna wrote:I probably could only a manage a practice test a week while working this summer. During mid-August to early-September, I could put in 5-8 hours a day presumably, though I also have to work on my applications. I'm taking fewer classes that I normally do this fall, so I probably could do a decent amount of studying in September.

As far as prep goes, I took a Kaplan course from February-May (though it was kind of worthless and since I was in school, I didn't take the homework very seriously), went through both Powerscore Bibles, and completed nine practice tests total. On my last PT before the test, I made a 174, but with only -1 on LG and -2 on RC. I basically didn't start studying in earnest until mid-May, however. I feel like there is potentially room for improvement.

Though I'd really like to go to NYU, I would settle for something in the MVP tier or GULC. What are the chances that I could talk my way out of a poor score with NYU in an addendum?


I would start digging through profiles on LSN after doing multiple scores only searches. Here's a starting place (last years cycle):
http://search.lawschoolnumbers.com/user ... Cycle=0809

NYU def has the most "weird" waitlists/rejections for people with multiple scores. There are def instances of people with numbers that should make them near auto-admit (since NYU is def way more #'s based then Chicago) that don't get in. Keep in mind there's a lot of people with multiple scores written in their profile, they just did not click the multiple score box.

What would you include in the addendum? The only good excuses I found are medical issues, family issues, or a major personal crisis. The excuse of "I didn't prepare well enough" is usually a bad one.

If you think you could get LR down between 0-2 or 1-3 and improve your accuracy a little on LG (having games as a fall back perfect section 90% of the time is a nice thing for those aiming for 175+), I would consider canceling. It actually might be the safer bet to hold off on canceling while planning on the retake, even if it does end up hurting your chances at CCN since you will have less pressure on the Oct test and be in alright shape if something comes up (or happens test day).

Feel free to yell at me if all I'm doing is increasing confusion.

edit: As an aside- I'm a pretty firm believer in the more time a person devotes to studying the LSAT, the more he or she can improve. I had a 174 on last June's LSAT, which was on the higher end of my PT average, and I am fairly confident after teaching and tutoring for the past year that I could get into the high 170's if I took a few weeks to brush up on my pacing. I think you are a far ways away from maxing out if you've only taken 9 PTs.

vicuna
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Re: Another cancellation thread.

Postby vicuna » Wed Jun 09, 2010 2:11 am

First, just to clarify, when I say a range of 2-4 on LR, that means both sections, not per section. Anyway, as a final pro-con list: here are my best arguments for each side:

Cancel: NYU, my top school, seems to definitely average. Moreover, based purely on the numbers, if you take my average practice test (probably 171) and add in five blind guesses, I'm going to end up with a score I don't like (perhaps as low as 167).

Don't cancel: Besides the LG disaster and the two RC misses, I felt pretty good about the test overall. Of all the tough LR questions that I've heard people discuss, I am confident that I got the correct answer on all of them. Also, one of the reasons that my timing was slower is that I was more meticulous in answering.




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