Should I cancel today--please advise

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nythinker
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Should I cancel today--please advise

Postby nythinker » Thu Dec 08, 2011 12:25 pm

Hello forum,

I'm desperately trying to decide whether to cancel my december score or keep it.

In past practice tests, I've hit high 170s--like, 176 or 177--typically leaving 1-3 guesses at the end of the logic games (I have trouble finishing them), but getting no more than 1-3 wrong on the rest of the test.

On this particular test, my logic games were worse: I made a mistake in game 3, fixed it, but lost too much time; on game 4, I answered, I think, the first two questions correctly, narrowed down the third--guessed on it rapidly and then guess-bubbled the remaining 4.

I believe the two logical reasoning sections (I had a third--not sure which was experimental) went well; I cannot recall any specific question I believe I got wrong, though one of the sections was more challenging than I've seen before--so I could definitely have gotten 1-2 wrong on it.

The reading comp was extremely hard--I managed, barely, to finish--but I know that I got one question wrong (thought about it later) and my guess on the last question was frantic and so is probably incorrect. I'm assuming there's a chance I got 3-4 wrong on the entire section, and a chance I got 1-2 wrong.

So, that leaves me with score ranging from 11 or so wrong (5 logic games, 3 reading comp, 3 lr) to 7-8 wrong (4-5 logic games, 2 reading comp, and a floater).

I was planning to apply to law school in January, but I'm open to another year of thinking/waiting. If I cancel, I cannot apply in January but could apply next year. I have a gpa of 3.97 from a well ranked school. I would greatly appreciate advice from the forum--to what extent do people feel that the lower end score (a 170, perhaps a 169 if I did worse than I thought) would affect my future chances, both in January and if I took the test again. If I canceled, I'd retake in June and prep more for the logic games in advance.

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JoeMo
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Re: Should I cancel today--please advise

Postby JoeMo » Thu Dec 08, 2011 12:29 pm

nythinker wrote:Hello forum,

I'm desperately trying to decide whether to cancel my december score or keep it.

In past practice tests, I've hit high 170s--like, 176 or 177--typically leaving 1-3 guesses at the end of the logic games (I have trouble finishing them), but getting no more than 1-3 wrong on the rest of the test.

On this particular test, my logic games were worse: I made a mistake in game 3, fixed it, but lost too much time; on game 4, I answered, I think, the first two questions correctly, narrowed down the third--guessed on it rapidly and then guess-bubbled the remaining 4.

I believe the two logical reasoning sections (I had a third--not sure which was experimental) went well; I cannot recall any specific question I believe I got wrong, though one of the sections was more challenging than I've seen before--so I could definitely have gotten 1-2 wrong on it.

The reading comp was extremely hard--I managed, barely, to finish--but I know that I got one question wrong (thought about it later) and my guess on the last question was frantic and so is probably incorrect. I'm assuming there's a chance I got 3-4 wrong on the entire section, and a chance I got 1-2 wrong.

So, that leaves me with score ranging from 11 or so wrong (5 logic games, 3 reading comp, 3 lr) to 7-8 wrong (4-5 logic games, 2 reading comp, and a floater).

I was planning to apply to law school in January, but I'm open to another year of thinking/waiting. If I cancel, I cannot apply in January but could apply next year. I have a gpa of 3.97 from a well ranked school. I would greatly appreciate advice from the forum--to what extent do people feel that the lower end score (a 170, perhaps a 169 if I did worse than I thought) would affect my future chances, both in January and if I took the test again. If I canceled, I'd retake in June and prep more for the logic games in advance.


are you trying to go to HYS or GULC? That can make all the difference.

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Samara
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Re: Should I cancel today--please advise

Postby Samara » Thu Dec 08, 2011 12:31 pm

Is this your first score? If so, don't cancel. A lot of people freak out thinking they bombed and then they get a nice surprise when their score comes back. If it's not up to your ability, retake in June and it's the same difference as if you canceled now.

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20130312
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Re: Should I cancel today--please advise

Postby 20130312 » Thu Dec 08, 2011 12:36 pm

Samara wrote:Is this your first score? If so, don't cancel. A lot of people freak out thinking they bombed and then they get a nice surprise when their score comes back. If it's not up to your ability, retake in June and it's the same difference as if you canceled now.


^ This. Don't cancel, OP.

nythinker
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Re: Should I cancel today--please advise

Postby nythinker » Thu Dec 08, 2011 1:06 pm

In response to all posters: yeah, I'm thinking about HYS. I'm not necessarily set on it--I live in NY and am not super invested in leaving the city, as I have a good life and pre-law career here I'd rather not abandon. But I would consider it for Yale or Harvard--in particular, for Yale.

I don't have to go HYS, but I'd rather not fail to get in because I insisted on applying this year rather than next year.

Assuming we're aiming for the top (HYS), what do people think is the difference between canceling and keeping and retaking? Let's assume that I'm going to get a lower score (like a 170--which I absolutely respect is a good score and do not mean for a moment to come off as a snob or elitist). Or even a lower score than that--a 168. To what extent do posters feel canceling vs. keeping will make a difference in the end analysis, and does anyone have a solid sense of the curve of this particular test?

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JoeMo
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Re: Should I cancel today--please advise

Postby JoeMo » Thu Dec 08, 2011 1:10 pm

nythinker wrote:In response to all posters: yeah, I'm thinking about HYS. I'm not necessarily set on it--I live in NY and am not super invested in leaving the city, as I have a good life and pre-law career here I'd rather not abandon. But I would consider it for Yale or Harvard--in particular, for Yale.

I don't have to go HYS, but I'd rather not fail to get in because I insisted on applying this year rather than next year.

Assuming we're aiming for the top (HYS), what do people think is the difference between canceling and keeping and retaking? Let's assume that I'm going to get a lower score (like a 170--which I absolutely respect is a good score and do not mean for a moment to come off as a snob or elitist). Or even a lower score than that--a 168. To what extent do posters feel canceling vs. keeping will make a difference in the end analysis, and does anyone have a solid sense of the curve of this particular test?


I'm with the others, don't cancel it. Those guesses could've been good guesses. And they take people with retakes so if it does come out bad then retake in June. There's that chance you might end up with a 176 though, so just wait and see. Good luck!

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Samara
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Re: Should I cancel today--please advise

Postby Samara » Thu Dec 08, 2011 1:14 pm

nythinker wrote:In response to all posters: yeah, I'm thinking about HYS. I'm not necessarily set on it--I live in NY and am not super invested in leaving the city, as I have a good life and pre-law career here I'd rather not abandon. But I would consider it for Yale or Harvard--in particular, for Yale.

I don't have to go HYS, but I'd rather not fail to get in because I insisted on applying this year rather than next year.

Assuming we're aiming for the top (HYS), what do people think is the difference between canceling and keeping and retaking? Let's assume that I'm going to get a lower score (like a 170--which I absolutely respect is a good score and do not mean for a moment to come off as a snob or elitist). Or even a lower score than that--a 168. To what extent do posters feel canceling vs. keeping will make a difference in the end analysis, and does anyone have a solid sense of the curve of this particular test?

Nowadays, retaking has no impact on your admissions chances. I have a friend at Yale who retook a 168 to a 172. Just sit tight and see what happens.

The TLS prediction is -12 on the curve. TLS predictions tend to be one or two points more pessimistic than the actual curve. Check out the waiting thread if you want more info: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=172929

nythinker
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Re: Should I cancel today--please advise

Postby nythinker » Thu Dec 08, 2011 2:06 pm

Are we certain retaking doesn't affect one's chances? I keep reading that HYS still average your top scores?

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Samara
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Re: Should I cancel today--please advise

Postby Samara » Thu Dec 08, 2011 3:10 pm

nythinker wrote:Are we certain retaking doesn't affect one's chances? I keep reading that HYS still average your top scores?

It's my understanding that they report your highest score to ABA/USNWR and thus that's the score that matters. I'm sure LSN has plenty of examples of YHS admits with multiple scores. Where are you reading otherwise?

nythinker
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Re: Should I cancel today--please advise

Postby nythinker » Thu Dec 08, 2011 3:19 pm

On their web-sites they say they average scores (Harvard and columbia do at least).

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Samara
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Re: Should I cancel today--please advise

Postby Samara » Thu Dec 08, 2011 3:25 pm

nythinker wrote:On their web-sites they say they average scores (Harvard and columbia do at least).

I'm not super familiar with YHSCCN practices, but it's my understanding that they say they consider your average, but then report your highest score. Thus, your highest score takes a lot of precedence. It's been discussed in threads like this: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=172681&p=4984613&hilit=harvard+average#p4984613 If you poke around with the search function or look at LSN profiles, you can find more confirmation.

The risks associated with retaking instead of canceling have been downgraded over the past few years to practical non-existence. I say don't cancel. With your GPA, you don't need a 176 to get into YHS anyway.

nythinker
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Re: Should I cancel today--please advise

Postby nythinker » Thu Dec 08, 2011 5:13 pm

But if I got a 171 or 170--to what extent would that keep me out of HYS?

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Samara
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Re: Should I cancel today--please advise

Postby Samara » Thu Dec 08, 2011 5:18 pm

nythinker wrote:But if I got a 171 or 170--to what extent would that keep me out of HYS?

With your GPA, you would still have a decent shot. I would say that it would then depend on your softs. Luckily, applying with a December score won't hurt your chances at Y, but H has already accepted a fair number of people. Either way, I say don't cancel and if you get a 170+ go ahead with your applications. If you don't like your cycle, retake in June, kill it (people improve an average of ~3 points on first retake), and enjoy YHS.

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20130312
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Re: Should I cancel today--please advise

Postby 20130312 » Thu Dec 08, 2011 5:21 pm

Samara wrote:people improve an average of ~3 points on first retake


Is this true? Sauce?

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Samara
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Re: Should I cancel today--please advise

Postby Samara » Thu Dec 08, 2011 5:28 pm

InGoodFaith wrote:
Samara wrote:people improve an average of ~3 points on first retake


Is this true? Sauce?

Oh man, I would have to go digging to find it, but someone posted a link to a study that LSAC did on retaking. It's actually a very comprehensive study and has lots of interesting information. IIRC, people improve by about 2-3 points on average for the first retake and about 1-2 points on average for the second retake. If you poke around the LSAC website, you should be able to find it.

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20130312
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Re: Should I cancel today--please advise

Postby 20130312 » Thu Dec 08, 2011 5:30 pm

Interesting, and sort of pushing me to retake since I'm one point below Penn's median :roll:

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Samara
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Re: Should I cancel today--please advise

Postby Samara » Thu Dec 08, 2011 5:31 pm

InGoodFaith wrote:Interesting, and sort of pushing me to retake since I'm one point below Penn's median :roll:

Retake is credited in virtually every situation. There's no downside beyond the cost and study time. DO IT.

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pupshaw
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Re: Should I cancel today--please advise

Postby pupshaw » Thu Dec 08, 2011 6:03 pm

Based on your estimates it sounds like 170 is a likely worst-case scenario. So you should keep it. If you decide you'd really like HYS and it comes out on the low end of your projected possibilities, you can always sit out and retake in June or October. But you might still come out significantly higher than that, in which case you're in good shape this year. And in either case, with your GPA, you're in great shape for CCN, I would think.

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ladybug89
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Re: Should I cancel today--please advise

Postby ladybug89 » Thu Dec 08, 2011 11:12 pm

If you're interested in the study, here's a link: http://www.lsac.org/LsacResources/Resea ... -11-01.pdf

LSAC has actually done a bunch of quite technical studies, which I was surprised about. Some even sound interesting!

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Samara
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Re: Should I cancel today--please advise

Postby Samara » Thu Dec 08, 2011 11:13 pm

ladybug89 wrote:If you're interested in the study, here's a link: http://www.lsac.org/LsacResources/Resea ... -11-01.pdf

LSAC has actually done a bunch of quite technical studies, which I was surprised about. Some even sound interesting!

Ah, thank you!

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20130312
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Re: Should I cancel today--please advise

Postby 20130312 » Thu Dec 08, 2011 11:53 pm

Samara wrote:
ladybug89 wrote:If you're interested in the study, here's a link: http://www.lsac.org/LsacResources/Resea ... -11-01.pdf

LSAC has actually done a bunch of quite technical studies, which I was surprised about. Some even sound interesting!

Ah, thank you!


Thanks! Mean retake improvement was 2.8 points so your earlier comment is credited.




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