I am not alone!

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Nicholasnickynic
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby Nicholasnickynic » Wed Oct 12, 2011 11:13 am

Sirhcyam wrote:
romothesavior wrote:
Sirhcyam wrote:Key word here is "seems." People used to make the same argument about college (maybe some still do). When you compare the medians for someone who gets a job right out of high school to someone who goes to a four year college and then gets a job, the high school graduate actually wins out (or, they are very close) in earnings for the first ten years. I once read that it works something like this:

HS: 30-30-32-34-36-38-40-40-40-40...
College: 0-0-0-0-38-38-42-44-48-50-55...
Law School: 0-0-0-0-0-0-0-45-45-55-60-75...

The numbers represent the salary in thousands, the dashes represent a new year.

For someone who demands STATISTICAL evidence, you sure do like to pull stuff out of your ass.

Is your college grad example working as a bartender, or is he just retarded? What the hell is he doing that he's only making 18k more than he was 7 years before?


A lack of fast-paced career advancement is common in a lot of careers. See accountant, nurse, teacher, etc. Seven years is nothing in a career that will last you forty.

http://www.payscale.com/best-colleges/degrees.asp

Also, would someone please respond to my argument about the bar exam. It's probably the most relevant thing I've posted, and none of you ever seem to consider it.


Look at the post above you. Also, you are an idiot.

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romothesavior
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby romothesavior » Wed Oct 12, 2011 11:17 am

Sirhcyam wrote:Also, would someone please respond to my argument about the bar exam. It's probably the most relevant thing I've posted, and none of you ever seem to consider it.

Its not even an argument. I mean, what is your point? That a person who passes the bar is more employable than someone who hasn't? No shit? You realize that passing the bar is a breeze for just about every student at a respectable school? Where are you going with this?

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Tom Joad
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby Tom Joad » Wed Oct 12, 2011 11:22 am

romothesavior wrote:Is your college grad example working as a bartender, or is he just retarded? What the hell is he doing that he's only making 18k more than he was 7 years before?


If he was a liberal arts major he is doing pretty well for himself.

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Nicholasnickynic
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby Nicholasnickynic » Wed Oct 12, 2011 11:24 am

romothesavior wrote:
Sirhcyam wrote:Also, would someone please respond to my argument about the bar exam. It's probably the most relevant thing I've posted, and none of you ever seem to consider it.

Its not even an argument. I mean, what is your point? That a person who passes the bar is more employable than someone who hasn't? No shit? You realize that passing the bar is a breeze for just about every student at a respectable school? Where are you going with this?



He isn't going anywhere. Its the chewbacca defense. Hence the link.

somethingsome
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby somethingsome » Wed Oct 12, 2011 11:30 am

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Nicholasnickynic
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby Nicholasnickynic » Wed Oct 12, 2011 11:38 am

Sirhcyam wrote:
romothesavior wrote:
Sirhcyam wrote:Also, would someone please respond to my argument about the bar exam. It's probably the most relevant thing I've posted, and none of you ever seem to consider it.

Its not even an argument. I mean, what is your point? That a person who passes the bar is more employable than someone who hasn't? No shit? You realize that passing the bar is a breeze for just about every student at a respectable school? Where are you going with this?


My point is simple: everyone whines about how hard it is to get a job as a lawyer in this economy. What they don't understand is that a key reason for why people are not getting jobs as lawyers may be because they have not yet passed the bar. When a statistic says that only 60% of a graduating class found jobs in law 9 months from graduation, it doesn't take into account that a huge chunk of the class may not have passed the bar. While it is true that most people at good schools pass the bar the fist time they take it, there is no way of knowing if this first time is within the first nine months after graduation or not. Also, isn't it true that most people who graduate good schools find jobs in law?

And to the chewbacca guy: if you can't follow this argument, then you're the real idiot.


Oh, I take it back. I understand it now.

Although, what about the fact that in 2010 there were 30k new jobs requiring a jd and 45k law grads?

There is an oversupply of lawyers. People don't get jobs because there aren't any there, not because they don't pass teh bar.

Most jobs are offered before people take the bar. If failing the bar was the cause of unemployment, you would hear lots of stories about people losing jobs after failing the bar.

I don't think I've heard one.

ETA: Since you seem to have a hard-on for stats:
http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jan/08 ... -2010jan08

somethingsome
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby somethingsome » Wed Oct 12, 2011 11:53 am

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Richie Tenenbaum
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby Richie Tenenbaum » Wed Oct 12, 2011 11:54 am

Sirhcyam wrote:
romothesavior wrote:
Sirhcyam wrote:Also, would someone please respond to my argument about the bar exam. It's probably the most relevant thing I've posted, and none of you ever seem to consider it.

Its not even an argument. I mean, what is your point? That a person who passes the bar is more employable than someone who hasn't? No shit? You realize that passing the bar is a breeze for just about every student at a respectable school? Where are you going with this?


My point is simple: everyone whines about how hard it is to get a job as a lawyer in this economy. What they don't understand is that a key reason for why people are not getting jobs as lawyers may be because they have not yet passed the bar. When a statistic says that only 60% of a graduating class found jobs in law 9 months from graduation, it doesn't take into account that a huge chunk of the class may not have passed the bar. While it is true that most people at good schools pass the bar the fist time they take it, there is no way of knowing if this first time is within the first nine months after graduation or not. Also, isn't it true that most people who graduate good schools find jobs in law?

And to the chewbacca guy: if you can't follow this argument, then you're the real idiot.


It would be unusual for a biglaw firm to rescind an offer based on you failing the bar once. Is it really embarrassing and harmful to your long-term future at that firm? Probably. Lots of small firms hire people after they've taken and passed the bar.

The root of all these law students not being able to find jobs is not connected to passing the bar. If this was 2006, there would not be as many doom & gloom people since firms were hiring more and you weren't as terrified going to a good law school at sticker. The bar passage rates haven't dropped drastically since then, but rather the amount of jobs is what has dropped.

Maybe your theory plays a role in why schools with shit bar passage rates have even shittier placement numbers than they should, but your theory does nothing to address why the law student going to a T30 school @ sticker and is top 20% is fucked for paying sticker. He's fucked bc the economy is shit, there is a glut of lawyers, and he should have prob not taken that 200k gamble.

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Richie Tenenbaum
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby Richie Tenenbaum » Wed Oct 12, 2011 12:02 pm

Sirhcyam wrote:Th 45/30 argument is stupid. No jobs require a JD. They either require bar admission or they do not. The number of people who get JD's each year is an irrelevant statistic. The number of people who pass the bar, therefore, is the only statistic relevant to employment. Whether or not this is over or under 30,000 is also irrelevant. You can always introduce competition into the market by opening up your own firm.


Your knowledge of how legal hiring works is atrocious. You get your biglaw job 2L year and at that point it's yours to lose (unless the economy shits on us). These are the relevant jobs to students with huge debt loads. This is why it is dumb to pay sticker at most schools these days, because only a small # of students can get biglaw. The end.

somethingsome
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby somethingsome » Wed Oct 12, 2011 12:04 pm

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Patriot1208
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby Patriot1208 » Wed Oct 12, 2011 12:12 pm

Sirhcyam wrote: While it is true that most people at good schools pass the bar the fist time they take it, there is no way of knowing if this first time is within the first nine months after graduation or not.

Yes there is.... ~99%, probably more, take it within the first nine months of graduation unless they know they are for sure not going to be practicing law.

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Richie Tenenbaum
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby Richie Tenenbaum » Wed Oct 12, 2011 12:16 pm

Sirhcyam wrote:
Richie Tenenbaum wrote:
Sirhcyam wrote:Th 45/30 argument is stupid. No jobs require a JD. They either require bar admission or they do not. The number of people who get JD's each year is an irrelevant statistic. The number of people who pass the bar, therefore, is the only statistic relevant to employment. Whether or not this is over or under 30,000 is also irrelevant. You can always introduce competition into the market by opening up your own firm.


Your knowledge of how legal hiring works is atrocious. You get your biglaw job 2L year and at that point it's yours to lose (unless the economy shits on us). These are the relevant jobs to students with huge debt loads. This is why it is dumb to pay sticker at most schools these days, because only a small # of students can get biglaw. The end.


Your knowledge of paying off loans is shit. You can still pay off 200K without a big law job. It just takes longer.


Why put yourself in that position in the first place? I am not opposed to people attending schools for cheap where they have a good chance of getting a legal job. (Many TTT's don't fulfill this later requirement.) But taking the biglaw gamble at most schools at sticker is just stupid. The backup of having a decade+ of debt to pay off isn't exactly the best back-up option (and if you imagine there are small firm jobs with nice incremental pay increases for all the people who miss out on biglaw, then you're just delusional).

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Tom Joad
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby Tom Joad » Wed Oct 12, 2011 12:19 pm

Sirhcyam wrote:
Richie Tenenbaum wrote:
Sirhcyam wrote:Th 45/30 argument is stupid. No jobs require a JD. They either require bar admission or they do not. The number of people who get JD's each year is an irrelevant statistic. The number of people who pass the bar, therefore, is the only statistic relevant to employment. Whether or not this is over or under 30,000 is also irrelevant. You can always introduce competition into the market by opening up your own firm.


Your knowledge of how legal hiring works is atrocious. You get your biglaw job 2L year and at that point it's yours to lose (unless the economy shits on us). These are the relevant jobs to students with huge debt loads. This is why it is dumb to pay sticker at most schools these days, because only a small # of students can get biglaw. The end.


Your knowledge of paying off loans is shit. You can still pay off 200K without a big law job. It just takes longer.


If you have $200,000 is student loans, and your interest rate is 5% you are paying $10,000 a year just in interest. Think of trying to service $200,000 in loans on a $40,000 salary. That would seriously ruin your life.

CanuckObserver
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby CanuckObserver » Wed Oct 12, 2011 12:21 pm

Sirhcyam wrote:
Richie Tenenbaum wrote:
Sirhcyam wrote:Th 45/30 argument is stupid. No jobs require a JD. They either require bar admission or they do not. The number of people who get JD's each year is an irrelevant statistic. The number of people who pass the bar, therefore, is the only statistic relevant to employment. Whether or not this is over or under 30,000 is also irrelevant. You can always introduce competition into the market by opening up your own firm.


Your knowledge of how legal hiring works is atrocious. You get your biglaw job 2L year and at that point it's yours to lose (unless the economy shits on us). These are the relevant jobs to students with huge debt loads. This is why it is dumb to pay sticker at most schools these days, because only a small # of students can get biglaw. The end.


Your knowledge of paying off loans is shit. You can still pay off 200K without a big law job. It just takes longer.


There is a big difference between "taking longer" and "not having the money to afford to do anything except pay loans". I work in small law (by choice for lifestyle/location/practice development/career goal reasons, and, I got the job before I passed the bar as FYI as most I know who started in small law did) and I am fortunate that my loans at graduation were only about $70-80K as I worked both before and throughout law school. My salary is not terrible (though no where NEAR Big Law salaries & bonuses!), but I would have been in trouble having to pay my loans, my rent, and so forth along with being the primary breadwinner in my home if it was $150-200K. As it is, the budget is tight and I am not paying my loans off aggressively.

I am lucky. I know many people (who HAVE passed the bar, some who experience and some who do not) who are still looking for work either since graduation or after being laid off. Even doc review is drying up these days with outsourcing and most people also know getting into doc review is the death of your imagined legal career.

And before you jump in with your usual "solution" - not all graduates can live with their parents. Some of us actually, you know, don't wish to impose further on our parents (who may have their own things going on like illness, financial issues, etc), may not live near our parents, may not have parents at all, may have unhealthy family dynamics, may be parents ourselves and/or have spouses, or may feel our parents deserve a break from raising children after ensuring we survived to adulthood and feel it is time to take responsibility for our own lives.
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romothesavior
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby romothesavior » Wed Oct 12, 2011 12:23 pm

Sirhcyam wrote:
romothesavior wrote:
Sirhcyam wrote:Also, would someone please respond to my argument about the bar exam. It's probably the most relevant thing I've posted, and none of you ever seem to consider it.

Its not even an argument. I mean, what is your point? That a person who passes the bar is more employable than someone who hasn't? No shit? You realize that passing the bar is a breeze for just about every student at a respectable school? Where are you going with this?


My point is simple: everyone whines about how hard it is to get a job as a lawyer in this economy. What they don't understand is that a key reason for why people are not getting jobs as lawyers may be because they have not yet passed the bar. When a statistic says that only 60% of a graduating class found jobs in law 9 months from graduation, it doesn't take into account that a huge chunk of the class may not have passed the bar. While it is true that most people at good schools pass the bar the fist time they take it, there is no way of knowing if this first time is within the first nine months after graduation or not. Also, isn't it true that most people who graduate good schools find jobs in law?

And to the chewbacca guy: if you can't follow this argument, then you're the real idiot.

Image

What is happening in here

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romothesavior
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby romothesavior » Wed Oct 12, 2011 1:04 pm

Apparently you are alone. Every person in this thread disagrees with you (as would most practitioners), and every post you've made exhibits a total lack of understanding of the legal market and legal hiring.

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caputlupinum
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby caputlupinum » Wed Oct 12, 2011 1:06 pm

romothesavior wrote:
Sirhcyam wrote:
romothesavior wrote:
Sirhcyam wrote:Also, would someone please respond to my argument about the bar exam. It's probably the most relevant thing I've posted, and none of you ever seem to consider it.

Its not even an argument. I mean, what is your point? That a person who passes the bar is more employable than someone who hasn't? No shit? You realize that passing the bar is a breeze for just about every student at a respectable school? Where are you going with this?


My point is simple: everyone whines about how hard it is to get a job as a lawyer in this economy. What they don't understand is that a key reason for why people are not getting jobs as lawyers may be because they have not yet passed the bar. When a statistic says that only 60% of a graduating class found jobs in law 9 months from graduation, it doesn't take into account that a huge chunk of the class may not have passed the bar. While it is true that most people at good schools pass the bar the fist time they take it, there is no way of knowing if this first time is within the first nine months after graduation or not. Also, isn't it true that most people who graduate good schools find jobs in law?

And to the chewbacca guy: if you can't follow this argument, then you're the real idiot.

Image

What is happening in here


awesome pic

OP 99% of people on here see the only way as big law. Most are extremely pessimistic about life in general. There is no point arguing with these people. The only attorneys that are worth anything in their eyes are the ones who work for a NLJ250/AIII/gov out of law school all others suck at life. Who cares let them think what they want. I may be crazy as hell but every time I take off at an airport I say to myself if I crash and burn now I know I tried to do everything I ever wanted to do and I had one hell of a time doing it.

somethingsome
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby somethingsome » Wed Oct 12, 2011 1:17 pm

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Curious1
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby Curious1 » Wed Oct 12, 2011 1:18 pm

OP 99% of people on here see the only way as big law. Most are extremely pessimistic about life in general. There is no point arguing with these people. The only attorneys that are worth anything in their eyes are the ones who work for a NLJ250/AIII/gov out of law school all others suck at life. Who cares let them think what they want. I may be crazy as hell but every time I take off at an airport I say to myself if I crash and burn now I know I tried to do everything I ever wanted to do and I had one hell of a time doing it.


You know the website is called "top"-law-schools.com, not "mediocre"-law-schools.com. You're inherently going to have a more competitive, gunner/type A personality crowd here.

That being said. OP's goal (as stated here and elsewhere) is to have a decent life with high income. He doesn't want to "help people" or "put bad guys in jail" (which is fine, neither do I or most people here). If he could get into BigLaw he would shit himself over it. What we're trying to tell him is that outside the T3, BigLaw is far far from a sure thing, and drops exponentially the lower you go down the list.

Pessimism about life is a sign of maturity. Law school is a huge risk even if you go to YLS. Those three years represent an enormous opportunity cost, so you better be damn sure you're not missing out on something better.

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Kilpatrick
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby Kilpatrick » Wed Oct 12, 2011 1:18 pm

I wish there was an alert system so I could get an email every time this guy makes a new thread. So far all of his threads have been hilarious. His track record is impeccable. He is like the John Cazale of TLS

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Richie Tenenbaum
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby Richie Tenenbaum » Wed Oct 12, 2011 1:20 pm

caputlupinum wrote:
romothesavior wrote: 
Image

What is happening in here


awesome pic

OP 99% of people on here see the only way as big law. Most are extremely pessimistic about life in general. There is no point arguing with these people. The only attorneys that are worth anything in their eyes are the ones who work for a NLJ250/AIII/gov out of law school all others suck at life. Who cares let them think what they want. I may be crazy as hell but every time I take off at an airport I say to myself if I crash and burn now I know I tried to do everything I ever wanted to do and I had one hell of a time doing it.


Lol. No. I would think the majority of ppl in this thread (or on TLS in general) would support the idea of attending a strong regional school with a full scholarship with the goal of PI or getting a job at a small firm. I personally think that's a pretty good goal if the person is sure that is the type of work he wants to do. Biglaw is a neccessary evil for most who pay sticker, bc of what just has been covered above.

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joeshmo39
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby joeshmo39 » Wed Oct 12, 2011 1:28 pm

The 1.5% unemployment among lawyers sounds like a flat out lie. I guess that's just counting people who self-identify as lawyers and there are others who gave up on the law and moved industries who are not included. That has to be it.

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romothesavior
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby romothesavior » Wed Oct 12, 2011 1:42 pm

caputlupinum wrote:OP 99% of people on here see the only way as big law. Most are extremely pessimistic about life in general. There is no point arguing with these people. The only attorneys that are worth anything in their eyes are the ones who work for a NLJ250/AIII/gov out of law school all others suck at life. Who cares let them think what they want. I may be crazy as hell but every time I take off at an airport I say to myself if I crash and burn now I know I tried to do everything I ever wanted to do and I had one hell of a time doing it.

This is such a gross, unfair characterization of what people ITT and on TLS generally think.

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Tom Joad
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby Tom Joad » Wed Oct 12, 2011 1:49 pm

romothesavior wrote:
caputlupinum wrote:OP 99% of people on here see the only way as big law. Most are extremely pessimistic about life in general. There is no point arguing with these people. The only attorneys that are worth anything in their eyes are the ones who work for a NLJ250/AIII/gov out of law school all others suck at life. Who cares let them think what they want. I may be crazy as hell but every time I take off at an airport I say to myself if I crash and burn now I know I tried to do everything I ever wanted to do and I had one hell of a time doing it.

This is such a gross, unfair characterization of what people ITT and on TLS generally think.


Yeah I have to think the retake, shoot for a better school mentality shows an innate optimistic attitude that people can improve their lives. If I had to bet, a lot of people that post on TLS will have lots of success in their lives in the field of law and other areas. Look at Ken, he gets on MSNBC because he is such a boss.

LockBox
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Re: I am not alone!

Postby LockBox » Wed Oct 12, 2011 2:26 pm

Personally, I think the problem here is that people are saying the same things as each other, but differently. I don't think anyone would disagree with it being important to carefully consider job prospects, opportunity cost and debt (among other things) before embarking on law school.

Also, it would be unfair for a lot of you to say that law school is a poor choice/bad gamble as many of you have taken the lsat/plan on applying/attend law school or are practicing attorneys.

Thirdly, i'd like to say that I think it's important to have the 'doom and gloom' pessimists on these boards. It should give people who would otherwise romantically walk into law school with a dose of reality.

In the end, though, I realize that not everyone will or should be entitled to work after law school. A lot of factors that are out of peoples hands come into play. I just believe that over the course of a lifetime, if you work hard at it, your chances of a better life after law school can be considerably better. Note, I said chances and can...nothing is absolute.




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