telef wrote:Why do you think this is, given the lower number of applicants this year, previously quoted by Mike?
It's all about timing. I think that many schools admitted earlier and didn't take them off the WL, but prior to it. That just leaves fewer spaces left to fill from the WL.
A bit more on this. When you look at the cycle data two things stand out:
1. The applicant and application count, which is down.
Total applicants 53,104 -7.4%, total applications 347,967 -8.6%
2. The applicants in the 170's, which is up.
170–174 2,189 7.4%
175–180 591 7.7%
So here is our best guess as to what happened, which Karen had alluded to. Early cycle schools saw the continued decrease in applicants and the data from the last cycle and made more admits, knowing they would need to. But, at the very top it did not quite shake out like that, and the schools at the top ended up sitting pretty well going into the summer. Take, for example, UVa which seems to have been able to all but pull up the draw bridge on admits off the WL, so much so they are already stocking next year's class with deferred admits from the WL.
WL movement often occurs as a classic domino effect. Schools in the top 3-6 take people, thus schools 7-14 lose people and take people, etc etc. That effect has not happened like it has in past years.
There definitively has been WL activity, it just has not happened in a few massive waves like one might expect. Such a wave could still happen, it would just be later than usual. In the meantime, there will still be plenty of schools, T14 and otherwise, that will continue to need to cherry pick off of the WL. Again though, it just might not come in massive numbers in sequential order.