Eight "D" answers in a row? Really?

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Smiddywesson

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Eight "D" answers in a row? Really?

Postby Smiddywesson » Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:21 pm

I know there's ten forms of the test, and the non-equator questions are all scrambled, but I just had a flashback I want to run by people. During the February 2019 bar, I distinctly remember eight "D" answers in a row. At first I thought, "That's not very random." Then I thought "Shut up idiot, that's EXACTLY what happens with random numbers." Then I had this inner argument, DURING THE TEST, about what an egg head PhD Mathematician would do. Would they change the arrangement of the answers to appear more random, or let the streak play out randomly? Did anyone else notice this?

Torte

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Re: Eight "D" answers in a row? Really?

Postby Torte » Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:45 pm

Ummm I don't remember 8 D's in a row but definitely remember a ton of D's and C's. Afternoon session specifically.

janindustries

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Re: Eight "D" answers in a row? Really?

Postby janindustries » Wed Apr 03, 2019 3:12 pm

If anything I remember there to be a ton of c’s in a row and depending on which version you had (morning or afternoon) C was a common answer. D was popular in the other but not as much as C imo

lawgirl3521

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Re: Eight "D" answers in a row? Really?

Postby lawgirl3521 » Wed Apr 03, 2019 3:46 pm

I did not have eight Ds in a row, but there are 10 different versions of the test so don’t sweat it!

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KunAgnis

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Re: Eight "D" answers in a row? Really?

Postby KunAgnis » Wed Apr 03, 2019 5:42 pm

I mean technically every iteration is just as likely as another . . . so unless the bar examiners have previously manipulated the series so that there wouldn't be consecutive letters, I don't see why 8 D's is a bad sign.

Nightcrawler

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Re: Eight "D" answers in a row? Really?

Postby Nightcrawler » Fri Apr 05, 2019 10:55 am

Smiddywesson wrote:I know there's ten forms of the test, and the non-equator questions are all scrambled, but I just had a flashback I want to run by people. During the February 2019 bar, I distinctly remember eight "D" answers in a row. At first I thought, "That's not very random." Then I thought "Shut up idiot, that's EXACTLY what happens with random numbers." Then I had this inner argument, DURING THE TEST, about what an egg head PhD Mathematician would do. Would they change the arrangement of the answers to appear more random, or let the streak play out randomly? Did anyone else notice this?


At its beginnings, Apple modified the random function of its iPod shuffle's mode after receiving complaints that some of the songs were repeated while others were ignored. This actually made the random function less random but more suitable for iPod users.

I highly doubt that the bar examiners go through this kind of "adjustment". On the contrary, they probably get excited thinking about a panicked applicant after bubbling eight Ds in a row. If you are a psychometrician, you probably get off with that stuff.

With that said, I noticed similar "patterns" in the J18 examination but still passed the MBE with a 150+ score. Consider noticing letter patterns a complete distraction. Don't use your brain power (especially during the test) to think about it. Instead think "ah, that's what those losers want" and move on with the idea that it will be your last time taking the test!

Smiddywesson

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Re: Eight "D" answers in a row? Really?

Postby Smiddywesson » Fri Apr 05, 2019 3:47 pm

Nightcrawler wrote:
Smiddywesson wrote:I know there's ten forms of the test, and the non-equator questions are all scrambled, but I just had a flashback I want to run by people. During the February 2019 bar, I distinctly remember eight "D" answers in a row. At first I thought, "That's not very random." Then I thought "Shut up idiot, that's EXACTLY what happens with random numbers." Then I had this inner argument, DURING THE TEST, about what an egg head PhD Mathematician would do. Would they change the arrangement of the answers to appear more random, or let the streak play out randomly? Did anyone else notice this?


At its beginnings, Apple modified the random function of its iPod shuffle's mode after receiving complaints that some of the songs were repeated while others were ignored. This actually made the random function less random but more suitable for iPod users.

I highly doubt that the bar examiners go through this kind of "adjustment". On the contrary, they probably get excited thinking about a panicked applicant after bubbling eight Ds in a row. If you are a psychometrician, you probably get off with that stuff.

With that said, I noticed similar "patterns" in the J18 examination but still passed the MBE with a 150+ score. Consider noticing letter patterns a complete distraction. Don't use your brain power (especially during the test) to think about it. Instead think "ah, that's what those losers want" and move on with the idea that it will be your last time taking the test!


LOL, I am so overcome with dread while I wait for grades, I am not thinking clearly. I don't know the odds of eight random D answers in a row, but the random odds of eight coin flips landing heads is 1 in 256 (Maybe with four answers, the odds of eight Ds is 256 x 4?). Inasmuch as slightly less than 70k people take this test every year, that's a lot of sequential answers.

GIVE ME MY DOGDAMN GRADES or I'm going to jump off this ledge.......OK, here goes AAAAAAAHHHHHHGGGGGG!

I'm back, I gained so much f#cking weight prepping and waiting for grades, I bounced.

anonymous5491

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Re: Eight "D" answers in a row? Really?

Postby anonymous5491 » Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:03 pm

I noticed a bunch of “C”s in a row, and it definitely freaked me out at the time.

But all is well as I received notice that I passed in a fly over state today. Granted, I might have just crushed the essay portion as it was fairly straightforward.

JoeSeperac

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Re: Eight "D" answers in a row? Really?

Postby JoeSeperac » Sat Apr 06, 2019 10:34 am

The answer streaks happen every exam. For example, some old comments on it are pasted below. For anyone who noticed the streaks, did you count your A, B, C and D choices for each session to see if they were ultimately key-balanced (i.e. about 50 As, 50 Bs, etc)?

I had like 7 Ds in a row in the PM session. I was just like "fuck it"

Also - did anyone have an exorbitant amount of A's in a column? I had a streak of almost 7-8 in the afternoon session.

Anyone else get a SHIT TON of "d" answers in one of their collums? Plz.

I wound up picking the same letter D three times in a row—break—three times in a row again—break—then five times in a row.

I had 32 D's in PM. Almost 1/3 where 1/4 would be equal distribution. 11/20 in one column. I feel a little better reading this thread unless we're all wrong together or answered different questions with D.

anonymous5491

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Re: Eight "D" answers in a row? Really?

Postby anonymous5491 » Sat Apr 06, 2019 3:20 pm

anonymous5491 wrote:I noticed a bunch of “C”s in a row, and it definitely freaked me out at the time.

But all is well as I received notice that I passed in a fly over state today. Granted, I might have just crushed the essay portion as it was fairly straightforward.


127 on the MBE and still passed.

Definitely must have crushed the essays in my 50/50 state.

Note that 127 was at the 30.6 percentile on this examination.

Nygmen

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Re: Eight "D" answers in a row? Really?

Postby Nygmen » Sat Apr 06, 2019 10:25 pm

anonymous5491 wrote:I noticed a bunch of “C”s in a row, and it definitely freaked me out at the time.

But all is well as I received notice that I passed in a fly over state today. Granted, I might have just crushed the essay portion as it was fairly straightforward.





Scores are already coming in? Anyone know when MA will post???? I too remember D’s and C’s!

Smiddywesson

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Re: Eight "D" answers in a row? Really?

Postby Smiddywesson » Tue Apr 09, 2019 10:05 am

Nygmen wrote:
anonymous5491 wrote:I noticed a bunch of “C”s in a row, and it definitely freaked me out at the time.

But all is well as I received notice that I passed in a fly over state today. Granted, I might have just crushed the essay portion as it was fairly straightforward.





Scores are already coming in? Anyone know when MA will post???? I too remember D’s and C’s!


There were released on April 27, 2018 so unless there's been a change, it will be a little while more.

Smiddywesson

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Re: Eight "D" answers in a row? Really?

Postby Smiddywesson » Tue Apr 09, 2019 12:46 pm

Nygmen wrote:
anonymous5491 wrote:I noticed a bunch of “C”s in a row, and it definitely freaked me out at the time.

But all is well as I received notice that I passed in a fly over state today. Granted, I might have just crushed the essay portion as it was fairly straightforward.





Scores are already coming in? Anyone know when MA will post???? I too remember D’s and C’s!


This is more like what you want, it gives you more of a range. Deceptively Blond posted this on her website:

Massachusetts
February 2016 - April 25, 2016 (Monday)
July 2016 - October 14, 2016 (Friday)
February 2017 - April 21, 2017 (Mailed April 19, 2017) (Monday)
July 2017 - October 11, 2017 (Wednesday)
February 2018 - April 26, 2018 (Thursday)
July 2018 - October 12, 2018 (Friday)

Smiddywesson

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Re: Eight "D" answers in a row? Really?

Postby Smiddywesson » Tue Apr 09, 2019 4:24 pm

Did a little research on the randomness of the MBE. Quite a few people reported that there were 15 D's in a row on the July, 2016 MBE. I'm sure there's a coin flip calculator out there to figure these odds, but that's not very interesting. I now believe the examiners, being egghead Math PhDs, don't tinker with the distribution of the answers, they really are random. I remember reading about how the IRS uses a software program to look for numbers in returns that are too random, and then they audit the return, figuring there should be at least some pattern in the chaos. My take away is don't change a thing, if it's 15 in a row, it's just a coincidence.



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