MPRE/MBE Comparison

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Lawworld19

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MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby Lawworld19 » Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:00 am

Anxiously awaiting bar results. Ohio comes out this Friday. I know there probably isn't much correlation here but what was your MPRE and corresponding MBE?

I got a 98 on the MPRE this August and felt like I guessed on 70% of the questions. Half ass studied for a few days after work prior.

Reedy174

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby Reedy174 » Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:33 pm

I studied the same way as you and probably guessed just as much. Took MPRE the day after (celebrating) St. Patty's day and got an 84 or whatever you need to pass in all states.

Passed NJ with a 150 MBE, 302 overall. Doubtful there is a correlation, but your guessing skills sound top notch.

JoeSeperac

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby JoeSeperac » Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:56 pm

Lawworld19 wrote:Anxiously awaiting bar results. Ohio comes out this Friday. I know there probably isn't much correlation here but what was your MPRE and corresponding MBE?

I got a 98 on the MPRE this August and felt like I guessed on 70% of the questions. Half ass studied for a few days after work prior.


Based on your MPRE score of 98, you answered about 67% correct on the MPRE. According to NCBE, there is a moderately high relationship between MPRE scores and MBE scores (correlation of .58). This is understandable since both exams require you to choose a correct answer from usually two plausible choices. If you likewise answered 67% correct on the MBE, you should expect to see a scaled MBE score of about 142 (this is based on the 2013 raw to scaled MBE conversion in New York). NCBE also states that MBE scores are a surrogate for total bar exam scores since MBE scores are highly related to total bar exam scores.

http://www.ncbex.org/assets/media_files ... esting.pdf.

For example, in 2014, NCBE responded to complaints that the lower pass rates in July 2014 were somehow due to the MBE. To support their position that the decline in MBE scores (and therefore pass rates) was due to the quality of the candidate rather than the test itself, NCBE compared the MBE scores to MPRE scores. According to Erica Moeser, the President of NCBE: "I also looked at what the results from the Multistate Professional Responsibility Examination (MPRE), separately administered three times each year, might tell me. The decline in MPRE performance supports what we saw in the July 2014 MBE numbers. In 2012, 66,499 candidates generated a mean score of 97.57 (on a 50-150 scale). In 2013, 62,674 candidates generated a mean score of 95.65. In 2014, a total of 60,546 candidates generated a mean score of 93.57. Because many MPRE test takers are still enrolled in law school when they test, these scores can be seen as presaging MBE performance in 2014 and 2015."

http://seperac.com/pdf/830414-presidentspage.pdf

Here, NCBE is using this positive correlation between MBE scores and MPRE scores to support its argument regarding bar passage declines. Somehow this 2-hour test on attorney ethics correlates well enough with the MBE that NCBE relied on it to bolster their position. This of course begs the question, why is the MPRE positively correlated with the MBE? If there was indeed a weaker pool of candidates, why should they be expected to score worse on a test that involves a single subject and only a few days of study. What if these weaker candidates studied more than normal for the MPRE – shouldn't they then have higher mean scores? The only explainable difference is that if the quality of the candidate has decreased, this means there are fewer "good test takers" and good test-taking is a skill necessary for success on the MBE and MPRE. What exactly are good test-takers? Good test takers frequently take practice tests. Good test takers read test questions carefully but still analyze them quickly. Good test-takers recognize that the test is a game and approach it accordingly. Good test takers become familiar with how questions are asked and what kinds of answers are correct for those questions. Good test takers are able to avoid the "distractors" or "foils." Good test takers learn from their mistakes and are less likely to repeat them. In contrast, poor test-takers likely do worse on the MPRE for the same reason they do worse on the MBE – they have weaker reading comprehension skills, are more prone to choosing the appealing but wrong answer choices, and are more likely to repeat their mistakes.

Bottom line – if you can do well on the MPRE after a few days of study/practice, you will likely do well on the MBE after significant study/practice. Conversely, if your first attempt at the MPRE was poor even though you studied/practiced, this should serve as a signal that your MBE score may be problematic.

Findedeux

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby Findedeux » Sat Oct 20, 2018 2:51 pm

So it looks like MPRE and LSAT scores were about equally predictive.

That's surprising that MPRE scores are that predictive because in regards to stress they seem pretty different.

I had no anxiety on the MPRE; I got lots of sleep and while I wished I had studied a little bit more (I studied about 10 hours) I was very calm.

On the second day of the bar I was taking the MBE with almost no sleep and huge nerves.

Even so, a .58 correlation is not super predictive.

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Calbears123

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby Calbears123 » Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:00 pm

Hope there is correlation between my MPRE score and MBE.

I walked out of the MPRE after an hour and thinking there was a 50/50 chance I passed...got a 115

sammyveritas

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby sammyveritas » Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:32 pm

I really hope there's a positive correlation as well..I scored 119...gives me hope as I await these NY Bar results..thank you.... :D

Lawworld19

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby Lawworld19 » Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:40 pm

I really hope there is. On the MPRE I just got it down to two then pulled the trigger. Walked out not even stressed, just knew I would have to retake again. I felt like I just didn't know the detailed material well enough to pass. Guess I did though.

As for the MBE, the first half was ok. I didn't feel defeated. Second half there was a stretch of around it felt 25-35 questions in a row that I just felt like I was completely guessing. I am not sure if that was test anxiety/fatigue or the experimental. But it was for sure a stretch of that many my mind just was not computing. I finished both sections with roughly 15ish mins to spare.

Essays are another concern. Didn't feel like I nailed any. Every question there was a sub-part I was hesitant about or a few. It just is really going to come down with how hard they grade. I think I hit most of the main topics but a ton I missed. How much can you BS and pass?

Cop2lawyerNYC

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby Cop2lawyerNYC » Sat Oct 20, 2018 4:04 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
Lawworld19 wrote:Anxiously awaiting bar results. Ohio comes out this Friday. I know there probably isn't much correlation here but what was your MPRE and corresponding MBE?

I got a 98 on the MPRE this August and felt like I guessed on 70% of the questions. Half ass studied for a few days after work prior.


Based on your MPRE score of 98, you answered about 67% correct on the MPRE. According to NCBE, there is a moderately high relationship between MPRE scores and MBE scores (correlation of .58). This is understandable since both exams require you to choose a correct answer from usually two plausible choices. If you likewise answered 67% correct on the MBE, you should expect to see a scaled MBE score of about 142 (this is based on the 2013 raw to scaled MBE conversion in New York). NCBE also states that MBE scores are a surrogate for total bar exam scores since MBE scores are highly related to total bar exam scores.

http://www.ncbex.org/assets/media_files ... esting.pdf.

For example, in 2014, NCBE responded to complaints that the lower pass rates in July 2014 were somehow due to the MBE. To support their position that the decline in MBE scores (and therefore pass rates) was due to the quality of the candidate rather than the test itself, NCBE compared the MBE scores to MPRE scores. According to Erica Moeser, the President of NCBE: "I also looked at what the results from the Multistate Professional Responsibility Examination (MPRE), separately administered three times each year, might tell me. The decline in MPRE performance supports what we saw in the July 2014 MBE numbers. In 2012, 66,499 candidates generated a mean score of 97.57 (on a 50-150 scale). In 2013, 62,674 candidates generated a mean score of 95.65. In 2014, a total of 60,546 candidates generated a mean score of 93.57. Because many MPRE test takers are still enrolled in law school when they test, these scores can be seen as presaging MBE performance in 2014 and 2015."

http://seperac.com/pdf/830414-presidentspage.pdf

Here, NCBE is using this positive correlation between MBE scores and MPRE scores to support its argument regarding bar passage declines. Somehow this 2-hour test on attorney ethics correlates well enough with the MBE that NCBE relied on it to bolster their position. This of course begs the question, why is the MPRE positively correlated with the MBE? If there was indeed a weaker pool of candidates, why should they be expected to score worse on a test that involves a single subject and only a few days of study. What if these weaker candidates studied more than normal for the MPRE – shouldn't they then have higher mean scores? The only explainable difference is that if the quality of the candidate has decreased, this means there are fewer "good test takers" and good test-taking is a skill necessary for success on the MBE and MPRE. What exactly are good test-takers? Good test takers frequently take practice tests. Good test takers read test questions carefully but still analyze them quickly. Good test-takers recognize that the test is a game and approach it accordingly. Good test takers become familiar with how questions are asked and what kinds of answers are correct for those questions. Good test takers are able to avoid the "distractors" or "foils." Good test takers learn from their mistakes and are less likely to repeat them. In contrast, poor test-takers likely do worse on the MPRE for the same reason they do worse on the MBE – they have weaker reading comprehension skills, are more prone to choosing the appealing but wrong answer choices, and are more likely to repeat their mistakes.

Bottom line – if you can do well on the MPRE after a few days of study/practice, you will likely do well on the MBE after significant study/practice. Conversely, if your first attempt at the MPRE was poor even though you studied/practiced, this should serve as a signal that your MBE score may be problematic.


Joe,
What’s the correlation between Mbe and MEE scores?

maroon175

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby maroon175 » Sat Oct 20, 2018 4:35 pm

What's the MBE correlation to a 106 MPRE score?

JoeSeperac

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby JoeSeperac » Sat Oct 20, 2018 5:21 pm

maroon175 wrote:What's the MBE correlation to a 106 MPRE score?


Based on an MPRE score of 106, you answered about 72% correct on the MPRE. If you likewise answered 72% correct on the MBE, you should expect to see a scaled MBE score of about 148.5 (this is based on the 2013 raw to scaled MBE conversion in New York).

If you want more stats on your chances of passing, submit this:
https://seperac.com/zcalc-passcalc.php

JoeSeperac

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby JoeSeperac » Sat Oct 20, 2018 5:25 pm

Cop2lawyerNYC wrote:What’s the correlation between Mbe and MEE scores?


According to NCBE, “when corrected for the lack of perfect reliability, the correlation with the MBE is 0.76 for local essay questions, 0.78 for the MEE, and 0.58 for the MPT. These results show a moderately strong relationship between the MBE and the local essay questions, as well as between the MBE and the MEE, and a weaker relationship between the MBE and the MPT, as expected.”

NCBE also said that for the MEE to have the same reliability as the MBE, it needed to be 13.5 hours long with 27 different essay questions. This is why I would rather see a person fail the bar exam with a good MBE score and lower essays because based on statistics I can almost assure you that you will pass the bar if you persist but I can't say the same if you have great essay scores but lower MBE scores.

https://seperac.com/pdf/770308_testing.pdf

Ohnt

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby Ohnt » Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:23 am

Very interesting analysis Joe. Thanks. I love reading anything about score prediction during this wait period (ny).

JoeSeperac wrote:
Lawworld19 wrote:Anxiously awaiting bar results. Ohio comes out this Friday. I know there probably isn't much correlation here but what was your MPRE and corresponding MBE?

I got a 98 on the MPRE this August and felt like I guessed on 70% of the questions. Half ass studied for a few days after work prior.


Based on your MPRE score of 98, you answered about 67% correct on the MPRE. According to NCBE, there is a moderately high relationship between MPRE scores and MBE scores (correlation of .58). This is understandable since both exams require you to choose a correct answer from usually two plausible choices. If you likewise answered 67% correct on the MBE, you should expect to see a scaled MBE score of about 142 (this is based on the 2013 raw to scaled MBE conversion in New York). NCBE also states that MBE scores are a surrogate for total bar exam scores since MBE scores are highly related to total bar exam scores.

http://www.ncbex.org/assets/media_files ... esting.pdf.

For example, in 2014, NCBE responded to complaints that the lower pass rates in July 2014 were somehow due to the MBE. To support their position that the decline in MBE scores (and therefore pass rates) was due to the quality of the candidate rather than the test itself, NCBE compared the MBE scores to MPRE scores. According to Erica Moeser, the President of NCBE: "I also looked at what the results from the Multistate Professional Responsibility Examination (MPRE), separately administered three times each year, might tell me. The decline in MPRE performance supports what we saw in the July 2014 MBE numbers. In 2012, 66,499 candidates generated a mean score of 97.57 (on a 50-150 scale). In 2013, 62,674 candidates generated a mean score of 95.65. In 2014, a total of 60,546 candidates generated a mean score of 93.57. Because many MPRE test takers are still enrolled in law school when they test, these scores can be seen as presaging MBE performance in 2014 and 2015."

http://seperac.com/pdf/830414-presidentspage.pdf

Here, NCBE is using this positive correlation between MBE scores and MPRE scores to support its argument regarding bar passage declines. Somehow this 2-hour test on attorney ethics correlates well enough with the MBE that NCBE relied on it to bolster their position. This of course begs the question, why is the MPRE positively correlated with the MBE? If there was indeed a weaker pool of candidates, why should they be expected to score worse on a test that involves a single subject and only a few days of study. What if these weaker candidates studied more than normal for the MPRE – shouldn't they then have higher mean scores? The only explainable difference is that if the quality of the candidate has decreased, this means there are fewer "good test takers" and good test-taking is a skill necessary for success on the MBE and MPRE. What exactly are good test-takers? Good test takers frequently take practice tests. Good test takers read test questions carefully but still analyze them quickly. Good test-takers recognize that the test is a game and approach it accordingly. Good test takers become familiar with how questions are asked and what kinds of answers are correct for those questions. Good test takers are able to avoid the "distractors" or "foils." Good test takers learn from their mistakes and are less likely to repeat them. In contrast, poor test-takers likely do worse on the MPRE for the same reason they do worse on the MBE – they have weaker reading comprehension skills, are more prone to choosing the appealing but wrong answer choices, and are more likely to repeat their mistakes.

Bottom line – if you can do well on the MPRE after a few days of study/practice, you will likely do well on the MBE after significant study/practice. Conversely, if your first attempt at the MPRE was poor even though you studied/practiced, this should serve as a signal that your MBE score may be problematic.

mathandthelaw

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby mathandthelaw » Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:45 pm

I spent only a few hours out of one day studying and I passed not over 100 though. I took it during one of the busiest weeks and I didn't have much time to study. I heard from others that you could still pass only studying a few hours and they were actually right.

On the other hand, I studied hard for the bar really hard. So it likely only correlate for those who put in lots of effort right?

rwhyAn

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby rwhyAn » Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:56 pm

mathandthelaw wrote:I spent only a few hours out of one day studying and I passed not over 100 though. I took it during one of the busiest weeks and I didn't have much time to study. I heard from others that you could still pass only studying a few hours and they were actually right.

On the other hand, I studied hard for the bar really hard. So it likely only correlate for those who put in lots of effort right?


I agree with this 100%. I'm not sure if the scores are comparable. Most people I know that took the MPRE did minimal studying for it, but pretty much everyone I knew who studied for the bar studied their ass off. I studied maybe 8 hours for the MPRE the day before the exam and scored a 90. Meanwhile, I studied a ton for the MBE and scored a 162. Also, as someone noted in an earlier post, the anxiety levels between the MPRE and Bar Exam are much, much different.

mathandthelaw

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby mathandthelaw » Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:06 pm

rwhyAn wrote:
mathandthelaw wrote:I spent only a few hours out of one day studying and I passed not over 100 though. I took it during one of the busiest weeks and I didn't have much time to study. I heard from others that you could still pass only studying a few hours and they were actually right.

On the other hand, I studied hard for the bar really hard. So it likely only correlate for those who put in lots of effort right?


I agree with this 100%. I'm not sure if the scores are comparable. Most people I know that took the MPRE did minimal studying for it, but pretty much everyone I knew who studied for the bar studied their ass off. I studied maybe 8 hours for the MPRE the day before the exam and scored a 90. Meanwhile, I studied a ton for the MBE and scored a 162. Also, as someone noted in an earlier post, the anxiety levels between the MPRE and Bar Exam are much, much different.


Congrats on the 162 that's good! And this also gives me hope.

JoeSeperac

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby JoeSeperac » Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:15 pm

mathandthelaw wrote:I spent only a few hours out of one day studying and I passed not over 100 though. I took it during one of the busiest weeks and I didn't have much time to study. I heard from others that you could still pass only studying a few hours and they were actually right.

On the other hand, I studied hard for the bar really hard. So it likely only correlate for those who put in lots of effort right?

Yes, if you winged the MPRE and did well, it probably doesn't mean much about your future MBE score except that you are probably a good multiple choice test taker who can identify the better of two seemingly plausible correct answers. On the other hand, if you spent a of of time on MPRE study and still failed it, you really need to re-evaluate your study/practice methods before you take the MBE.

For the MBE, your MBE practice scores, assuming the MBE practice questions are of sufficient difficulty and representative of the topics tested, will give you the most insight as to whether or not you will pass the UBE. If you did 65% correct or better in MBE practice overall, you are in great shape to score a 140 or higher on the MBE, which puts you in a good position to pass most UBE states.

NY candidates will find out how they did soon enough (tonight is my guess for the release date).

MurdockLLP2

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby MurdockLLP2 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:18 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:NY candidates will find out how they did soon enough (tonight is my guess for the release date).


What time tonight Joe?

JoeSeperac

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby JoeSeperac » Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:41 pm

MurdockLLP2 wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:NY candidates will find out how they did soon enough (tonight is my guess for the release date).


What time tonight Joe?


My guess is no better than anyone else's guess, but I would say 10:30PM. That's the time they released last July. I can't speak for the bar examiners, but I wouldn't want to release when examinees are at work or driving home (some examinees who fail are devastated and then have to deal with being at work/driving home), but NY has released during the work day/5PM in the past, so I really can't rule it out.

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby Ramis00 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:49 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
MurdockLLP2 wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:NY candidates will find out how they did soon enough (tonight is my guess for the release date).


What time tonight Joe?


My guess is no better than anyone else's guess, but I would say 10:30PM. That's the time they released last July. I can't speak for the bar examiners, but I wouldn't want to release when examinees are at work or driving home (some examinees who fail are devastated and then have to deal with being at work/driving home), but NY has released during the work day/5PM in the past, so I really can't rule it out.


I’m hoping for a night/evening release because they released the Feb 2018 results at 2:54 PM and the drive home was absolutely awful for me. So here’s hoping. Thanks for your analysis Joe.

Ohnt

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby Ohnt » Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:06 pm

Thanks ! I hope so!

JoeSeperac wrote:
MurdockLLP2 wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:NY candidates will find out how they did soon enough (tonight is my guess for the release date).


What time tonight Joe?


My guess is no better than anyone else's guess, but I would say 10:30PM. That's the time they released last July. I can't speak for the bar examiners, but I wouldn't want to release when examinees are at work or driving home (some examinees who fail are devastated and then have to deal with being at work/driving home), but NY has released during the work day/5PM in the past, so I really can't rule it out.

Sancat

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby Sancat » Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:36 pm

maroon175 wrote:What's the MBE correlation to a 106 MPRE score?

I am not sure about correlation, got a 126 on MPRE and a 165 on MBE.

diatribe

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby diatribe » Tue Oct 23, 2018 1:06 am

Took SAT without studying= ~1670
Took SAT again without studying= ~2050

Took LSAT without studying= ~142
Took LSAT again without studying= ~163

Took MPRE studying only 3 days= 84 (CA requires 86)
Took MPRE again, this time studying for two weeks= 134
[given my pattern, I wonder whether I would have gotten the same score without studying]

Took CA bar studying 8 "billable" hours/day, 7 days a week from graduation to July 24

If my pattern succeeds, I'll probably get a 80 scaled MBE this time and a 180 scaled MBE next time around

maroon175

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby maroon175 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:08 am

JoeSeperac wrote:
maroon175 wrote:What's the MBE correlation to a 106 MPRE score?


Based on an MPRE score of 106, you answered about 72% correct on the MPRE. If you likewise answered 72% correct on the MBE, you should expect to see a scaled MBE score of about 148.5 (this is based on the 2013 raw to scaled MBE conversion in New York).

If you want more stats on your chances of passing, submit this:
https://seperac.com/zcalc-passcalc.php


Spot on! 148.3. Thanks, Joe! I'll be sending you a follow up with my complete stats.

MurdockLLP2

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby MurdockLLP2 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:05 am

@Joe, could you give me an analysis of my score? I scored a 308 with a 157.2 MBE (NY UBE). Thanks!

JoeSeperac

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Re: MPRE/MBE Comparison

Postby JoeSeperac » Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:15 pm

MurdockLLP2 wrote:@Joe, could you give me an analysis of my score? I scored a 308 with a 157.2 MBE (NY UBE). Thanks!

Congratulations on passing the J18 exam. Based on your scaled MBE score of 157.2, your estimated raw MBE score was about 138/175 correct (based on my estimate of the MBE scale). This means you answered about 78.9% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 81.9% percentile for the MBE. This means that 18.1% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 157.2 (based on July national data for the past 7 years). Based on a total score of 308, this means your written score was 150.8, which would have placed you in the 69.3% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 30.7% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT).



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