J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

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dabigchina

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby dabigchina » Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:37 pm

dabigchina wrote:So is it for sure that this would negatively impact scaling? For instance, the mean score might be lower, but the decrease in scores may not be caused by "leveller" questions they use to establish the difficulty of the exam?

Nevermind. Realized my question makes no sense.

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby Findedeux » Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:47 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
TheJuryMustDie wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:
TheJuryMustDie wrote:It does look like this July's MBE mean is the lowest in about 30 years.


The July 2018 MBE mean of 139.5 is the 3rd lowest July mean since the MBE was introduced in 1972. The lowest was July 1972 (137.9) and then July 1984 (139.2).


Joe, out of interest, do you have an idea what the average July mean in New York? I understand the essays are scaled to the jurisdiction's MBE mean.


Not any more. I could figure it out for the pre-UBE exam, but not with the current exam. From my data, the July NY mean is an average of 2.2 points lower than the July national mean. For example, in J13, the national MBE mean was 144.3 while the NY MBE mean was 142.25.


Seems odd that NY is lower than national mean given that most of the law schools in NY are pretty good as compared to many states with some pretty crappy ones.

TheJuryMustDie

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby TheJuryMustDie » Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:00 pm

Findedeux wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:
TheJuryMustDie wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:
TheJuryMustDie wrote:It does look like this July's MBE mean is the lowest in about 30 years.


The July 2018 MBE mean of 139.5 is the 3rd lowest July mean since the MBE was introduced in 1972. The lowest was July 1972 (137.9) and then July 1984 (139.2).


Joe, out of interest, do you have an idea what the average July mean in New York? I understand the essays are scaled to the jurisdiction's MBE mean.


Not any more. I could figure it out for the pre-UBE exam, but not with the current exam. From my data, the July NY mean is an average of 2.2 points lower than the July national mean. For example, in J13, the national MBE mean was 144.3 while the NY MBE mean was 142.25.


Seems odd that NY is lower than national mean given that most of the law schools in NY are pretty good as compared to many states with some pretty crappy ones.


I think that might be because NY has a considerable amount of foreign takers compared to other jurisdictions.

estefanchanning

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby estefanchanning » Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:21 am

Okay maybe I'm slow, but I don't understand why a 2.2 drop is *so* significant? Are we assuming that the average MBE score will necessarily be lower than the mean? I read this thread twice and I'm still confused...

Can someone explain the significance of this in layman's terms. Please.

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby JoeSeperac » Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:11 am

estefanchanning wrote:Okay maybe I'm slow, but I don't understand why a 2.2 drop is *so* significant? Are we assuming that the average MBE score will necessarily be lower than the mean? I read this thread twice and I'm still confused...

Can someone explain the significance of this in layman's terms. Please.


Take a look at the below graph. It compares the July pass rates nationwide from 2017-1996 (I just added 2017) to the mean MBE for that July exam. As you can see, when the mean MBE goes down, pass rates also go down. Over these 20 years, the lowest MBE mean was 139.9 in 2015 which resulted in a national July 2015 pass rate of 63%. In contrast, the 20 year July average pass rate was 70% with an average MBE mean of 142.6. This suggests the J18 pass rate will be lower than the J15 pass rate since the July MBE mean hasn't been so low since 1984.

Image

estefanchanning

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby estefanchanning » Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:51 am

JoeSeperac wrote:
estefanchanning wrote:Okay maybe I'm slow, but I don't understand why a 2.2 drop is *so* significant? Are we assuming that the average MBE score will necessarily be lower than the mean? I read this thread twice and I'm still confused...

Can someone explain the significance of this in layman's terms. Please.


Take a look at the below graph. It compares the July pass rates nationwide from 2017-1996 (I just added 2017) to the mean MBE for that July exam. As you can see, when the mean MBE goes down, pass rates also go down. Over these 20 years, the lowest MBE mean was 139.9 in 2015 which resulted in a national July 2015 pass rate of 63%. In contrast, the 20 year July average pass rate was 70% with an average MBE mean of 142.6. This suggests the J18 pass rate will be lower than the J15 pass rate since the July MBE mean hasn't been so low since 1984.

Image


Thank you! I understand. I guess I have a follow-up question:

Do we know what's causing this adverse relationship between MBE mean and pass rate? The only thing I can think of is there is a huge disparity between high- and low- scoring takers. I e., An inverted bell curve where the score of the average taker is below the mean.

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby JoeSeperac » Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:25 am

estefanchanning wrote:Do we know what's causing this adverse relationship between MBE mean and pass rate? The only thing I can think of is there is a huge disparity between high- and low- scoring takers. I e., An inverted bell curve where the score of the average taker is below the mean.


The relationship between the MBE mean and pass rate is generally positive, meaning when the mean goes up, pass rates go up and when the mean goes down, pass rates go down. However, this is not always the case (for example, in 2016 the MBE mean went up but the pass rates went down to 62%).

As to why the MBE mean is going down, it is likely because there are less-able first-time test-takers (based on corresponding LSAT averages) and there are more retakers (who typically score lower on the MBE). Also, there is also downward pressure due to the increased number of foreign examinees (they represented 13% of total NY examinees in 1995 versus 35% of total NY examinees today).

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby b290 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:47 pm

This is NOT good news if you were in the 255-265 UBE range last July. Wasn’t the difference for that made Feb 2018 so horrific only 1.8 points? Factoring in the amount of July takers, my rudimentary math says that is pretty bad.

Can we argue that this is the NCBE’s reaction (intentional or inadvertent) to law schools’ “open the floodgates” admission policies? Remember that exams (& their changes) are planned years in advance. So the stuff being introduced now (175 graded questions, Civ Pro) must’ve been on the table by 2014-2015. That roughly coincides with when those admitted under the “new” standards started graduating.

Also, with the increased amount of repeaters & foreign takers, wouldn’t there be more reliance on finding ways to “game the MBE” (i.e. shortcuts) instead of overall knowledge? That’s basically the whole premise of the 150 MBE/autopass strategy. Maybe no conspiracy, but to make an exam “fairer”, you also have to make it harder for those “gamers” to pass.

With admissions standards even more watered down, I’m afraid this is the “new normal”

My $.02

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby jennimarcy » Mon Oct 01, 2018 4:01 pm

I've read the posts here and I'm devastated on some days but on most I'm just determined. I've already started my bar review for FEB 2019. It will be my SIXTH try. Granted, I'm slow, my scores in college BA 2.99, law school 2.5 and my scores on each administration of the CBX have improved. So, the July test I decided to use adaptibar and did 1984 questions, 63 was my average the final week prior to taking the bar exam. I also signed up for Barexam Dr and did 10 performance tests (avg 58) and 10 essays (avg 63) in a simulator setting with a fabulous grader giving me tips on improvement.

Here's my history, I graduated in 2015 from Concord Law School (CLS) and sat for the bar exam Feb 2015. I was working full time and did not study as hard as I should have. First mistake, after receiving my result in May, just continued doing the barpassers self study (which is now merged into BarBri) and took the exam again in July 2015. I'm embarrassed to release my results here but I will at the end of my post. Then my dad got sick, I quit my job and helped mom take care of dad then took the exam again in July 2016. I did better while caring for my dad but still not good enough for California, and sadly a very low score. Dad passed away in 2017 and I decided in Oct of 2017 to try again for Feb 2018. I failed again and did not start studying until May and reluctantly, when I saw improvement in my score the MBE was LOWER than my 2016, I was really bummed because I thought I would do better than I did. FAST forward to right now - I'm not waiting for my results, I'm studying NOW because, I took Adaptibar seriously, I also signed up for Barexam Doctor to help with my writing skills and I think if I should be a little bit closer to passing. Who knows, I was stressed and two of the essays did not complete but I may have done enough to at least get a decent fail grade compared to my embarrassing scores when I started this journey.

So, here's my scores Feb 2015 1213.21, July 2015 1227.50, July 2016 1288.56, Feb 2018 1318.35.
The MBE scaled F15 1239, J15 1259, J16 1415, F18 1337.
For the written - RAW 540 for F15, J15 and J16 the scaled was different on all but still, NONE of my essays or the PT's were passing.
Fast forward to this year and my first two day test the RAW in F18 405, scaled 1299 - so my self study improved my writing score, I actually passed one essay and the PT grade 60.
The CA bar gave me the MBE percentages for local and national, Civ Pro and Con Law were my worst areas and I figured I needed help, so I spent the money for Adaptibar and the BarExam Doctor essays, did help me improve my writing skills but I don't think it was enough to pass.

My conclusion from all of this? I'm not stupid, but I am slow, so because I'm not the best test taker, as I had to sit twice for the FYLSE since CLS is nonaccredited and the second time I passed the FYLSE by ONE POINT (my professors were not impressed but I was pleased I got to continue my studies). I will NOT give up, I am a really good researcher and I will make a good lawyer, so, I don't care if the bar exam is harder now, it does not speak to the lawyering skills needed to be a good lawyer, it merely speaks to answering quickly, knowing the law and being able to write rules, analyze and conclude so why am I writing this? To encourage those waiting for their results in Ca. Never quit, if you have gone to law school and want to practice law, this barrier is passable for those who are challenged, like me.


OK, I've fooled around long enough - back to some more practice questions out of Strategies and Tactics.

b290

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby b290 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:21 pm

estefanchanning wrote:
Do we know what's causing this adverse relationship between MBE mean and pass rate? The only thing I can think of is there is a huge disparity between high- and low- scoring takers. I e., An inverted bell curve where the score of the average taker is below the mean.

We now have an MBE that's almost 50% of available points on almost every bar exam, an MBE mean that's used to scale written portions, and (especially for the UBE), an MBE that provides subjects for essays. So when the NCBE "plays around" with the MBE, it'll have a massive effect.

More graphs. Lower mean AND lower amount of test-takers. NOT good:

http://www.ncbex.org/news/july-2018-ave ... s-decrease

My $.02

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby FinallyPassedTheBar » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:29 pm

jennimarcy wrote:I've read the posts here and I'm devastated on some days but on most I'm just determined. I've already started my bar review for FEB 2019. It will be my SIXTH try. Granted, I'm slow, my scores in college BA 2.99, law school 2.5 and my scores on each administration of the CBX have improved. So, the July test I decided to use adaptibar and did 1984 questions, 63 was my average the final week prior to taking the bar exam. I also signed up for Barexam Dr and did 10 performance tests (avg 58) and 10 essays (avg 63) in a simulator setting with a fabulous grader giving me tips on improvement.

Here's my history, I graduated in 2015 from Concord Law School (CLS) and sat for the bar exam Feb 2015. I was working full time and did not study as hard as I should have. First mistake, after receiving my result in May, just continued doing the barpassers self study (which is now merged into BarBri) and took the exam again in July 2015. I'm embarrassed to release my results here but I will at the end of my post. Then my dad got sick, I quit my job and helped mom take care of dad then took the exam again in July 2016. I did better while caring for my dad but still not good enough for California, and sadly a very low score. Dad passed away in 2017 and I decided in Oct of 2017 to try again for Feb 2018. I failed again and did not start studying until May and reluctantly, when I saw improvement in my score the MBE was LOWER than my 2016, I was really bummed because I thought I would do better than I did. FAST forward to right now - I'm not waiting for my results, I'm studying NOW because, I took Adaptibar seriously, I also signed up for Barexam Doctor to help with my writing skills and I think if I should be a little bit closer to passing. Who knows, I was stressed and two of the essays did not complete but I may have done enough to at least get a decent fail grade compared to my embarrassing scores when I started this journey.

So, here's my scores Feb 2015 1213.21, July 2015 1227.50, July 2016 1288.56, Feb 2018 1318.35.
The MBE scaled F15 1239, J15 1259, J16 1415, F18 1337.
For the written - RAW 540 for F15, J15 and J16 the scaled was different on all but still, NONE of my essays or the PT's were passing.
Fast forward to this year and my first two day test the RAW in F18 405, scaled 1299 - so my self study improved my writing score, I actually passed one essay and the PT grade 60.
The CA bar gave me the MBE percentages for local and national, Civ Pro and Con Law were my worst areas and I figured I needed help, so I spent the money for Adaptibar and the BarExam Doctor essays, did help me improve my writing skills but I don't think it was enough to pass.

My conclusion from all of this? I'm not stupid, but I am slow, so because I'm not the best test taker, as I had to sit twice for the FYLSE since CLS is nonaccredited and the second time I passed the FYLSE by ONE POINT (my professors were not impressed but I was pleased I got to continue my studies). I will NOT give up, I am a really good researcher and I will make a good lawyer, so, I don't care if the bar exam is harder now, it does not speak to the lawyering skills needed to be a good lawyer, it merely speaks to answering quickly, knowing the law and being able to write rules, analyze and conclude so why am I writing this? To encourage those waiting for their results in Ca. Never quit, if you have gone to law school and want to practice law, this barrier is passable for those who are challenged, like me.


OK, I've fooled around long enough - back to some more practice questions out of Strategies and Tactics.


Kudos on your determination!

I passed the CBX...on my eighth try!

mathandthelaw

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby mathandthelaw » Tue Oct 02, 2018 12:46 pm

Admittedly, I think analyzing the numbers statistically is helpful. In fact, it is necessary.

I must say, regarding the MBE, I found the multiple choice to be rather difficult. The way the questions were worded in some regards was different than usual, repeatedly asking questions about obscure subtopics for which most test takers had not put much effort into memorizing. There were so many important topics within the various subjects that were not tested at all, but should have if the goal is trying to determine competency of the prospective attorney. Many people seemed to hate the questions that ask what an attorney would do in that position. I had not practiced those types of questions, but I was okay with them on test day because I was confident in my ability to "advise a client" based on my knowledge of the law and internship experience. I consider myself a pretty solid practical thinker. I was okay with those curve ball questions, but I just hate obscure questions. There should be a few to be sure, but not a significant amount.

I did past MBE questions from years ago (because to my knowledge, the most recent years have not been released, but I could be wrong), and I found them to be easier (at least for me). I was getting around 80-85% correct on those, whereas, with Barbri, I was getting 63-70% correct. I'm a really good essay taker and consider my self a decent (above average) multiple choice test taker. So, while we can analyze the numbers, such as past MBE score trends, as well as LSAT scores being down, I personally have found that the most overlooked issue is that the multiple choice have gotten significantly harder.

My opinion is that many out there discussing the bar don't seem to be talking enough about how more difficult the multiple choice have gotten. I think the essays in CA have eased up a bit from asking less obscure essay questions, but instead rewarding those who follow the formula of "practice makes perfect" and "memorizing the rules." I'm personally sick of hearing that students' LSAT scores are lower and therefore so are MBE scores. Please. My LSAT score was decent but not top law school material, however, I killed law school, even though I was surrounded by really smart people. I'm okay with multiple choice being difficult, but I think they can ease up a bit. The biggest beef I have is when they ask multiple questions about an obscure topic hardly anyone studied that is not very important in regards to testing the competency of the test taker. I don't see the value in those kind of questions.

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby Nightcrawler » Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:39 am

mathandthelaw wrote:Admittedly, I think analyzing the numbers statistically is helpful. In fact, it is necessary [...] So, while we can analyze the numbers, such as past MBE score trends, as well as LSAT scores being down, I personally have found that the most overlooked issue is that the multiple choice have gotten significantly harder.

My opinion is that many out there discussing the bar don't seem to be talking enough about how more difficult the multiple choice have gotten. I think the essays in CA have eased up a bit from asking less obscure essay questions, but instead rewarding those who follow the formula of "practice makes perfect" and "memorizing the rules." I'm personally sick of hearing that students' LSAT scores are lower and therefore so are MBE scores. Please. [...] The biggest beef I have is when they ask multiple questions about an obscure topic hardly anyone studied that is not very important in regards to testing the competency of the test taker. I don't see the value in those kind of questions.


Thank you. I keep saying this...

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby Wild Card » Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:03 am

JoeSeperac wrote:
dabigchina wrote:
TheJuryMustDie wrote:
dabigchina wrote:Wow so this isn't just low, this is one of the lowest ever. Interesting that the correlation between CA and mbe mean decoupled in 2017 after they moved to the 2 day exam.


It does look like this July's MBE mean is the lowest in about 30 years.

Makes me think they fucked up the psychometrics. The drop is way too big.


It's substantial, but I would guess that NCBE would triple check an abnormally low MBE such as J18s. Unfortunately, corresponding LSATs have been dropping for years, which implies lower MBE when that class goes to take the bar. From the LSAT data, it will actually get worse.

Image


Wow, that range is tight: is it because everybody uses the same resources to prepare for the exam?

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby mathandthelaw » Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:42 am

Yeah, I just don't understand how CalBar can correlate lower LSAT scores with lower bar passage when the questions have gotten significantly higher and they added Civ Pro to the MBE (rightfully so, Civ Pro should be an MBE topic).

I wish I took the bar ten years ago. Granted the job market was terrible at that time but I would have just killed the MBE then with the 80-85% I was getting on past bar questions.

That can also be another factor as to why the law is not as saturated as it was ten years ago.

It is unfortunate to me as well that a lower overall mean (even scaled) MBE actually hurts bar exam takers who are above average of the mean but end up failing because their essays/PT were not enough to make up for it.

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby b290 » Sat Oct 06, 2018 4:26 am

mathandthelaw wrote:Yeah, I just don't understand how CalBar can correlate lower LSAT scores with lower bar passage when the questions have gotten significantly higher and they added Civ Pro to the MBE (rightfully so, Civ Pro should be an MBE topic).

I wish I took the bar ten years ago. Granted the job market was terrible at that time but I would have just killed the MBE then with the 80-85% I was getting on past bar questions.

That can also be another factor as to why the law is not as saturated as it was ten years ago.

It is unfortunate to me as well that a lower overall mean (even scaled) MBE actually hurts bar exam takers who are above average of the mean but end up failing because their essays/PT were not enough to make up for it.

True. Then you could pass, but the job market was garbage. Now, the job market's finally letting up but, for passing, the struggle is real.

Another fair point. Now, with Civ Pro + 175 questions, and the MBE's new weight, people now are literally taking a different exam. Last time I checked, it isn't the test takers who keep tinkering with the MBE every few administrations.

My $.02

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby mathandthelaw » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:49 am

b290 wrote:
mathandthelaw wrote:Yeah, I just don't understand how CalBar can correlate lower LSAT scores with lower bar passage when the questions have gotten significantly higher and they added Civ Pro to the MBE (rightfully so, Civ Pro should be an MBE topic).

I wish I took the bar ten years ago. Granted the job market was terrible at that time but I would have just killed the MBE then with the 80-85% I was getting on past bar questions.

That can also be another factor as to why the law is not as saturated as it was ten years ago.

It is unfortunate to me as well that a lower overall mean (even scaled) MBE actually hurts bar exam takers who are above average of the mean but end up failing because their essays/PT were not enough to make up for it.

True. Then you could pass, but the job market was garbage. Now, the job market's finally letting up but, for passing, the struggle is real.

Another fair point. Now, with Civ Pro + 175 questions, and the MBE's new weight, people now are literally taking a different exam. Last time I checked, it isn't the test takers who keep tinkering with the MBE every few administrations.

My $.02



Yeah, that's the way I think about it--if I do pass, then it is good that it was so hard because there is way less competition here in California. On the other hand, if I don't pass, then it would be extremely unfortunate that we are having to take such a difficult bar. On top of that, we are getting criticized for supposedly being "dumber" because our "LSAT scores are lower." I find it insulting.

I mean, Harvard, Georgetown, and Columbia aren't even requiring the LSAT anymore. You can take the GRE! So if the LSAT was so important, why are some of the top law schools in the world not requiring it?

I really wish I could have taken the GRE. I always did outstanding in math and writing standardized testing portions. Plus, I feel like it operates more like the bar since it involves memorization. Granted, I think the LSAT is important and tests important skills for being a lawyer, but so does the GRE I think.

Regarding the MBEs, Civil Procedure isn't actually that hard if you really know it. The problem is, there are no practice questions on them from past bars (at least I never found access to them), so it is very difficult to prepare for the types of questions you will get.

To me, the fact that a lower MBE scale will result in lower pass rates is really unfortunate. The curve should help students, not hurt them!

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby b290 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:41 am

mathandthelaw wrote:Yeah, that's the way I think about it--if I do pass, then it is good that it was so hard because there is way less competition here in California. On the other hand, if I don't pass, then it would be extremely unfortunate that we are having to take such a difficult bar. On top of that, we are getting criticized for supposedly being "dumber" because our "LSAT scores are lower." I find it insulting.
...
Regarding the MBEs, Civil Procedure isn't actually that hard if you really know it. The problem is, there are no practice questions on them from past bars (at least I never found access to them), so it is very difficult to prepare for the types of questions you will get.

To me, the fact that a lower MBE scale will result in lower pass rates is really unfortunate. The curve should help students, not hurt them!

Agreed. But CA isn't helping with its exceedingly high passing score either.

As has already illustrated, a lower MBE mean, correlates with a lower scale, while also correlating with lower passing rates. The picture's already starting to come into place:

Image

The big swings are really in smaller states where there aren't as many test takers (highlighted in yellow on the far left). But the trend is clear. The last time we had such a drop in the MBE mean was July 2015 - note the sea of red in the far right column. It's also telling that when there was a huge jump in the MBE (July 2017), many test takers were beneficiaries as passing rates jumped (see the sea of green). Unfortunately, July 2018 - with the states that've reported their rates so far - it's almost an exact mirror of July 2015. Only Florida and Vermont have had increases so far. The effect's even more pronounced, since many states have increased their MBE percentages to 50% of available points.

Whatever the NCBE is doing to the MBE, we're seeing the results :shock:

My $.02

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby mathandthelaw » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:39 pm

b290 wrote:
mathandthelaw wrote:Agreed. But CA isn't helping with its exceedingly high passing score either.

As has already illustrated, a lower MBE mean, correlates with a lower scale, while also correlating with lower passing rates. The picture's already starting to come into place:

The big swings are really in smaller states where there aren't as many test takers (highlighted in yellow on the far left). But the trend is clear. The last time we had such a drop in the MBE mean was July 2015 - note the sea of red in the far right column. It's also telling that when there was a huge jump in the MBE (July 2017), many test takers were beneficiaries as passing rates jumped (see the sea of green). Unfortunately, July 2018 - with the states that've reported their rates so far - it's almost an exact mirror of July 2015. Only Florida and Vermont have had increases so far. The effect's even more pronounced, since many states have increased their MBE percentages to 50% of available points.

Whatever the NCBE is doing to the MBE, we're seeing the results :shock:

My $.02



This is really interesting! Yes the high passing score definitely hurts. Could you explain to me what the score of 288 for California (which seemed to be the highest) means? Like what are those score numbers. For some reason, I couldn't figure it out.

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby MovedToNevada » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:47 pm

Nevada's results were released yesterday and the pass rate (57%) was lower than July 2017 (66%). Nevada uses an MBE cutoff of I believe 138 but the MBE counts for only 33% of total score.

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby smile0751 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:30 pm

Massachusetts results are released tomorrow. After following this thread and my own gut feeling, I'm really really nervous and worried.

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby b290 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:02 pm

MovedToNevada wrote:Nevada's results were released yesterday and the pass rate (57%) was lower than July 2017 (66%). Nevada uses an MBE cutoff of I believe 138 but the MBE counts for only 33% of total score.

Isn't Nevada the state that requires a certain score for some essays - in addition to the overall passing score? That's harsh - even worse than Cali :shock:

mathandthelaw wrote:This is really interesting! Yes the high passing score definitely hurts. Could you explain to me what the score of 288 for California (which seemed to be the highest) means? Like what are those score numbers. For some reason, I couldn't figure it out.

So the 288 = 72 percent of 400. The 400 point scale is what many states are using so other states' scales were converted to that. They're largely there for comparison.

The states are on the far left (obviously); those in blue administered the UBE as of July 2018. Those highlighted in yellow are smaller states (i.e. those with less than 300 test takers); Connecticut usually is around 300. As we know with small sample sizes, usually = exaggerated changes. It also means that a few test-takers could buck the trend by passing/failing.

The left columns are test administrations as per year; the blue-shaded ones were UBE administrations. The MBE means for each administration are at the top of each of those columns - color coded as per increase/decrease. While July 2015 was the first "new" July exam (i.e. Civ Pro MBE), 2014 was also included for reference (for the record, the July 2014 mean was down from the previous year too).

The right-hand columns are percent changes from the previous July administration. Green and red are obvious, but the golden numbers are changes between -1% and 1%. That's practically negligible change. You'll see some outliers (like Mississippi's continually declining rates), and there are some things that could've affected results (like the Examsoft 2014 debacle or delays - like what happened in Colorado) But it's crazy seeing the correlation with a point+ increase/decrease. Expect the MBE (and the mean)'s importance to magnify as more states adopt the UBE (aka the MBE+ Exam)

smile0751 wrote:Massachusetts results are released tomorrow. After following this thread and my own gut feeling, I'm really really nervous and worried.

I've been there and it's not obv fun. If it makes you feel a little better, almost everyone I knew (that passed) thought they failed it the night before. Hang in there! 8)

My $.02

mathandthelaw

New
Posts: 26
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2018 12:23 pm

Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby mathandthelaw » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:07 pm

b290 wrote:
MovedToNevada wrote:Nevada's results were released yesterday and the pass rate (57%) was lower than July 2017 (66%). Nevada uses an MBE cutoff of I believe 138 but the MBE counts for only 33% of total score.

Isn't Nevada the state that requires a certain score for some essays - in addition to the overall passing score? That's harsh - even worse than Cali :shock:

mathandthelaw wrote:This is really interesting! Yes the high passing score definitely hurts. Could you explain to me what the score of 288 for California (which seemed to be the highest) means? Like what are those score numbers. For some reason, I couldn't figure it out.

So the 288 = 72 percent of 400. The 400 point scale is what many states are using so other states' scales were converted to that. They're largely there for comparison.

The states are on the far left (obviously); those in blue administered the UBE as of July 2018. Those highlighted in yellow are smaller states (i.e. those with less than 300 test takers); Connecticut usually is around 300. As we know with small sample sizes, usually = exaggerated changes. It also means that a few test-takers could buck the trend by passing/failing.

The left columns are test administrations as per year; the blue-shaded ones were UBE administrations. The MBE means for each administration are at the top of each of those columns - color coded as per increase/decrease. While July 2015 was the first "new" July exam (i.e. Civ Pro MBE), 2014 was also included for reference (for the record, the July 2014 mean was down from the previous year too).

The right-hand columns are percent changes from the previous July administration. Green and red are obvious, but the golden numbers are changes between -1% and 1%. That's practically negligible change. You'll see some outliers (like Mississippi's continually declining rates), and there are some things that could've affected results (like the Examsoft 2014 debacle or delays - like what happened in Colorado) But it's crazy seeing the correlation with a point+ increase/decrease. Expect the MBE (and the mean)'s importance to magnify as more states adopt the UBE (aka the MBE+ Exam)

smile0751 wrote:Massachusetts results are released tomorrow. After following this thread and my own gut feeling, I'm really really nervous and worried.

I've been there and it's not obv fun. If it makes you feel a little better, almost everyone I knew (that passed) thought they failed it the night before. Hang in there! 8)

My $.02


Thank you! So that means a scaled score of 72% is passing in California if I'm understanding correct. That would mean the 288 is the highest.

PuzzleBubble

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Posts: 7
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:02 pm

Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby PuzzleBubble » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:27 pm

mathandthelaw wrote:
b290 wrote:
MovedToNevada wrote:Nevada's results were released yesterday and the pass rate (57%) was lower than July 2017 (66%). Nevada uses an MBE cutoff of I believe 138 but the MBE counts for only 33% of total score.

Isn't Nevada the state that requires a certain score for some essays - in addition to the overall passing score? That's harsh - even worse than Cali :shock:

mathandthelaw wrote:This is really interesting! Yes the high passing score definitely hurts. Could you explain to me what the score of 288 for California (which seemed to be the highest) means? Like what are those score numbers. For some reason, I couldn't figure it out.

So the 288 = 72 percent of 400. The 400 point scale is what many states are using so other states' scales were converted to that. They're largely there for comparison.

The states are on the far left (obviously); those in blue administered the UBE as of July 2018. Those highlighted in yellow are smaller states (i.e. those with less than 300 test takers); Connecticut usually is around 300. As we know with small sample sizes, usually = exaggerated changes. It also means that a few test-takers could buck the trend by passing/failing.

The left columns are test administrations as per year; the blue-shaded ones were UBE administrations. The MBE means for each administration are at the top of each of those columns - color coded as per increase/decrease. While July 2015 was the first "new" July exam (i.e. Civ Pro MBE), 2014 was also included for reference (for the record, the July 2014 mean was down from the previous year too).

The right-hand columns are percent changes from the previous July administration. Green and red are obvious, but the golden numbers are changes between -1% and 1%. That's practically negligible change. You'll see some outliers (like Mississippi's continually declining rates), and there are some things that could've affected results (like the Examsoft 2014 debacle or delays - like what happened in Colorado) But it's crazy seeing the correlation with a point+ increase/decrease. Expect the MBE (and the mean)'s importance to magnify as more states adopt the UBE (aka the MBE+ Exam)

smile0751 wrote:Massachusetts results are released tomorrow. After following this thread and my own gut feeling, I'm really really nervous and worried.

I've been there and it's not obv fun. If it makes you feel a little better, almost everyone I knew (that passed) thought they failed it the night before. Hang in there! 8)

My $.02


Thank you! So that means a scaled score of 72% is passing in California if I'm understanding correct. That would mean the 288 is the highest.


Delaware

smile0751

Bronze
Posts: 467
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2014 11:40 pm

Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby smile0751 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:07 am

MA's results are out!! I ended up passing!! :D :D ;D I'm absolutely floored and thrilled. Thanks for the support and this data!



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