The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

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JoeSeperac

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Sat Apr 28, 2018 12:15 am

testtaker123456 wrote:If you know, what is the UBE out of if not 400? I saw you tell someone else that the highest possible score would have been around a 363 and I'd really like to understand that math.


It's really just a guesstimate on my part. For example, MO releases statistics on the highest UBE score per exam and I think the highest ever was 358. Pennsylvania releases stats about the highest MBE score which has sometimes reached 190, but I find it unlikely that an examinee who scores a 190 on the MBE would similarly score a 190 on the MEE/MPT to get a 380 (which is probably the highest conceivable maximum score, not 400) because examinees that perform that highly at the MBE usually do it at the expense of the MEE/MPT. Yes, there are examinees that score 170 in both sections, but getting 190 in both sections means getting maybe 1 MBE question wrong and writing 6 or 7 model answers for the MEE/MPT (and usually a model answer is written at the expense of another answer). Thus, the most realistic maximum score to me is around 360-365.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Clayton100 » Sat Apr 28, 2018 9:18 am

Hi @JoeSeperac, if you have the time I would really appreciate your wizardry on my score as well! My total score on the NY Bar was 326 with a scaled MBE score was 165.3.

I finished the entire Barbri class and focused heavily on making sure I understood why I got MBE questions wrong so that I wouldn't make the same mistake twice.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby onionhead » Sat Apr 28, 2018 10:27 am

JoeSeperac wrote:
Krissynateylee wrote:
jrstephens1991 wrote:Can we just go ahead and make this a thing? :lol:


The guy is a genius and can answer pretty much any question that has to do with a mathmatical breakdown of you MBE and MEE scores.

@JoeSeperac do you mind?


So i played around with your calculator, foreign educated-DC Bar etc etc and every mpre grade i put in no matter how high its still an automatic fail... Why is that? So Foreign educated are bound to automatically fail?


Did you read the caveat on the UBE Score Estimator page?

CAVEAT: This calculator is less accurate for foreign examinees and for multiple re-takers. The calculator determines the mean total score for a particular demographic and then adjusts based on other criteria such as MPRE/UGPA/LSAT/LPGA. For foreign examinees, the only adjustment that can be made is with the MPRE. However, foreign examinee generally have a pass rate of 50% or less on the bar exam (meaning these examinees are more likely to fail the exam than pass it). Since foreign examinee demographic means are usually below passing, with the absense of other adjustments, the calculator often has the average foreign examinee failing the exam. For multiple re-takers, there is simply not a lot of data from NCBE or the state bar examiners. Once I collect more data, I expect future iterations of this calculator to be more accurate. However, as discussed above, your MBE practice scores, assuming the MBE practice questions are of sufficient difficulty and representative of the topics tested, will give you the most insight as to whether or not you will pass the UBE.


Unfortunately, there is no data on foreign examinees regarding the UBE exam, so I am relying on whatever data I have from NY, which is very little. The problem is that almost all foreign examinees are more likely to fail than pass, with the exception of examinees from Canada, Australia and Germany. To improve the calculator, the most helpful thing examinees can do is submit the form with their information (including email) and then I follow up after the exam to see how accurate the estimate was. Each iteration will make it more accurate than the last, but since it will generally be based on small samples, there will always be problems with its reliability. At a minimum, use the calculator to motivate you. For example, the overall pass-rate for all foreign examinees taking the F18 NY UBE was 31%. The historical average from 2004-2018 is 28%. So without driving it down into other demographics, only 1 out of 3 foreign examinees pass in February in NY and I would expect this to be similar in any other UBE state that has a pass rate of 266.


Im a foreign taker. Didnt study in America. Feel free to let me know if you need any stats from me. :)

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Krissynateylee » Sat Apr 28, 2018 11:17 am

onionhead wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:
Krissynateylee wrote:
jrstephens1991 wrote:Can we just go ahead and make this a thing? :lol:


The guy is a genius and can answer pretty much any question that has to do with a mathmatical breakdown of you MBE and MEE scores.

@JoeSeperac do you mind?


So i played around with your calculator, foreign educated-DC Bar etc etc and every mpre grade i put in no matter how high its still an automatic fail... Why is that? So Foreign educated are bound to automatically fail?


Did you read the caveat on the UBE Score Estimator page?

CAVEAT: This calculator is less accurate for foreign examinees and for multiple re-takers. The calculator determines the mean total score for a particular demographic and then adjusts based on other criteria such as MPRE/UGPA/LSAT/LPGA. For foreign examinees, the only adjustment that can be made is with the MPRE. However, foreign examinee generally have a pass rate of 50% or less on the bar exam (meaning these examinees are more likely to fail the exam than pass it). Since foreign examinee demographic means are usually below passing, with the absense of other adjustments, the calculator often has the average foreign examinee failing the exam. For multiple re-takers, there is simply not a lot of data from NCBE or the state bar examiners. Once I collect more data, I expect future iterations of this calculator to be more accurate. However, as discussed above, your MBE practice scores, assuming the MBE practice questions are of sufficient difficulty and representative of the topics tested, will give you the most insight as to whether or not you will pass the UBE.


Unfortunately, there is no data on foreign examinees regarding the UBE exam, so I am relying on whatever data I have from NY, which is very little. The problem is that almost all foreign examinees are more likely to fail than pass, with the exception of examinees from Canada, Australia and Germany. To improve the calculator, the most helpful thing examinees can do is submit the form with their information (including email) and then I follow up after the exam to see how accurate the estimate was. Each iteration will make it more accurate than the last, but since it will generally be based on small samples, there will always be problems with its reliability. At a minimum, use the calculator to motivate you. For example, the overall pass-rate for all foreign examinees taking the F18 NY UBE was 31%. The historical average from 2004-2018 is 28%. So without driving it down into other demographics, only 1 out of 3 foreign examinees pass in February in NY and I would expect this to be similar in any other UBE state that has a pass rate of 266.


Im a foreign taker. Didnt study in America. Feel free to let me know if you need any stats from me. :)


:)

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Sat Apr 28, 2018 5:31 pm

Clayton100 wrote:Hi @JoeSeperac, if you have the time I would really appreciate your wizardry on my score as well! My total score on the NY Bar was 326 with a scaled MBE score was 165.3.

I finished the entire Barbri class and focused heavily on making sure I understood why I got MBE questions wrong so that I wouldn't make the same mistake twice.


Based on your scaled MBE score of 165.3, your estimated raw MBE score was about 147/175 correct (based on F13 scale). This means you answered about 84% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 98.2% percentile for the MBE. This means that 1.8% of Feb examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 165.3 (based on F16 data). Based on a total score of 326, this means your written score was 160.7 which would have placed you in the 95.9% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 4.1% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT).To pass the F18 exam in NY, you needed to be better than 38% of the examinees taking it, and you ended up scoring better than about 97% of them (based on national stats).

Thanks for the comment. Focusing heavily on making sure you understood why you got MBE questions wrong so you wouldn't make the same mistake twice is absolutely one of the most important things you can do for the MBE (more important than the source of the questions).

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Sat Apr 28, 2018 5:38 pm

onionhead wrote:Im a foreign taker. Didnt study in America. Feel free to let me know if you need any stats from me. :)


Thanks. If you don't mind answering the following:

How long did you study for the Feb 2018 exam (e.g. how many days and how many hours per day on average)?
What percentage of your study-time did you spend on the MBE?
How many MBE questions did you answer in practice?
What was your overall % correct on these practice MBE questions?
What was your main source of MBE practice questions (e.g. Adaptibar, Barbri, Kaplan/PMBR, Themis, Strategies and Tactics, etc.)?

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby onionhead » Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:29 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
onionhead wrote:Im a foreign taker. Didnt study in America. Feel free to let me know if you need any stats from me. :)


Thanks. If you don't mind answering the following:

How long did you study for the Feb 2018 exam (e.g. how many days and how many hours per day on average)?
What percentage of your study-time did you spend on the MBE?
How many MBE questions did you answer in practice?
What was your overall % correct on these practice MBE questions?
What was your main source of MBE practice questions (e.g. Adaptibar, Barbri, Kaplan/PMBR, Themis, Strategies and Tactics, etc.)?


1. I studied from mid-December. average of around 1-2 hours per day? sometimes more, sometimes less. But i have the advantage/disadvantage of being a full time litigator in a commonwealth country. so some of the concepts e.g. contract, evidence are similar, if not identical, to what i already know. I focused more on subjects which were entirely foreign to me e.g. constitution (I remember thinking to myself why do you americans have so many rights) and subjects which were totally different from what I am familiar with (e.g. some parts of civ pro).

2. 30%? Unfortunately, I thought that the MBE weighed lesser than the essays. I only realised my mistake really close to the exam. But i think my studying for the MEE also helped with the MBE.

3. I cannot recall. I did the MBE questions on Barmax. And I shared the account with a couple of friends. So i dont really have stats on this.

4. I didnt complete one full practice exam at one go. Only did the questions by subjects. But probably 50-55%?

5. Barmax.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Nightcrawler » Wed May 02, 2018 2:53 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:MBE question [...] consist of a pre-determined mix of Very Easy, Easy, Average, Harder than Average, and Extremely Difficult questions. For example, on a typical exam form, examinees can expect that 13% of the questions will be Very/Extremely difficult. [...]


Hi Joe, do you know how many questions will be apportioned to the other categories? There are approximately 13% of Extremely Difficult questions on the MBE, but how about the Very Easy, Easy, Average, and Harder than Average categories? Thank you, always enjoy your info.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Wed May 02, 2018 5:31 pm

Nightcrawler wrote:Hi Joe, do you know how many questions will be apportioned to the other categories? There are approximately 13% of Extremely Difficult questions on the MBE, but how about the Very Easy, Easy, Average, and Harder than Average categories? Thank you, always enjoy your info.


Without going into greater detail, examinees can expect 56% of the graded MBE questions to range from Very Easy to Average while 44% of the MBE Questions to be Harder than Average to Extremely Difficult. Generally, I regard the released NCBE questions as representing the Very Easy to Average difficulty questions that are on the MBE exam. This is why examinees should use multiple MBE practice sources – otherwise they may not have enough exposure to the Harder than Average to Extremely Difficult questions expected to represent 44% of the MBE. Sorry to be intentionally vague on this, but unfortunately others take my work/research/materials and then try to pass it off as their own.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Wed May 02, 2018 5:34 pm

onionhead wrote:But i think my studying for the MEE also helped with the MBE.


Thanks for the followup. In regards to your statement above, I find this to be very accurate. It also works the other way - for example one examinee told me that an MBE practice question he did was exactly the same as one of the F18 MEE Contracts issues.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby nada123 » Thu May 03, 2018 12:19 am

JoeSeperac wrote:
onionhead wrote:Im a foreign taker. Didnt study in America. Feel free to let me know if you need any stats from me. :)


Thanks. If you don't mind answering the following:

How long did you study for the Feb 2018 exam (e.g. how many days and how many hours per day on average)?
What percentage of your study-time did you spend on the MBE?
How many MBE questions did you answer in practice?
What was your overall % correct on these practice MBE questions?
What was your main source of MBE practice questions (e.g. Adaptibar, Barbri, Kaplan/PMBR, Themis, Strategies and Tactics, etc.)?


Hi Joe,

I’m a foreign taker too (no US LLM, common law country). If you need more stats here are my answers.

How long did you study for the Feb 2018 exam (e.g. how many days and how many hours per day on average)? Weekdays 3-4 hours after work, weekends about 5 hours. Started studying end of November, but only a few hours a week.

What percentage of your study-time did you spend on the MBE? About 80%

How many MBE questions did you answer in practice? About 400-500 in total
What was your overall % correct on these practice MBE questions? From 50-80% depending on the subject. Towards the end, around 65% correct overall

What was your main source of MBE practice questions (e.g. Adaptibar, Barbri, Kaplan/PMBR, Themis, Strategies and Tactics, etc.). Started off using Themis then switched to Adaptibar.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Nightcrawler » Thu May 03, 2018 10:59 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:Without going into greater detail, examinees can expect 56% of the graded MBE questions to range from Very Easy to Average while 44% of the MBE Questions to be Harder than Average to Extremely Difficult. Generally, I regard the released NCBE questions as representing the Very Easy to Average difficulty questions that are on the MBE exam. This is why examinees should use multiple MBE practice sources – otherwise they may not have enough exposure to the Harder than Average to Extremely Difficult questions expected to represent 44% of the MBE. Sorry to be intentionally vague on this, but unfortunately others take my work/research/materials and then try to pass it off as their own.


Thank you. Is that material calculated by you, I assume? Is there any way that it's accessible through your subscription program? Also, can you recommend valid alternative MBE resources other than NCBE released questions?

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Fri May 04, 2018 10:51 am

nada123 wrote:How long did you study for the Feb 2018 exam (e.g. how many days and how many hours per day on average)? Weekdays 3-4 hours after work, weekends about 5 hours. Started studying end of November, but only a few hours a week.

What percentage of your study-time did you spend on the MBE? About 80%

How many MBE questions did you answer in practice? About 400-500 in total
What was your overall % correct on these practice MBE questions? From 50-80% depending on the subject. Towards the end, around 65% correct overall

What was your main source of MBE practice questions (e.g. Adaptibar, Barbri, Kaplan/PMBR, Themis, Strategies and Tactics, etc.). Started off using Themis then switched to Adaptibar.


Thanks for the followup. I often tell examinees that passing depends more on the person than the materials. You are a good example. Other examinees will study 2x more than you did and fail. Most foreign examinees who answer only 400 MBE questions in practice usually have an MBE under 130. Enjoy the success!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Fri May 04, 2018 11:16 am

Nightcrawler wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:Without going into greater detail, examinees can expect 56% of the graded MBE questions to range from Very Easy to Average while 44% of the MBE Questions to be Harder than Average to Extremely Difficult. Generally, I regard the released NCBE questions as representing the Very Easy to Average difficulty questions that are on the MBE exam. This is why examinees should use multiple MBE practice sources – otherwise they may not have enough exposure to the Harder than Average to Extremely Difficult questions expected to represent 44% of the MBE. Sorry to be intentionally vague on this, but unfortunately others take my work/research/materials and then try to pass it off as their own.


Thank you. Is that material calculated by you, I assume? Is there any way that it's accessible through your subscription program? Also, can you recommend valid alternative MBE resources other than NCBE released questions?


Yes, the bar examiners also are sometimes intentionally vague when they release exam data, so I have to piece it together. For example, I took all the information in NYBOLE released studies from 2005-2007 and matched it up to determine MBE scores, final scores and pass rates for each of the different demographics reported. They had all this information scattered throughout the reports, but the information is much more meaningful when you put it all in a table. You can look at the chart I made here:
https://www.seperac.com/downloads/Seper ... 0order.pdf

I recommend a mix of MBE questions, but for each examinee it is different. It comes down to how well you are doing on the easy ones versus the hard ones. For example, a 125/175 raw resulted in a 140 MBE on the July 2017 MBE so about a 125/175 is what you probably need to get a 140 on the J18 MBE. Lets say you are 70% correct on the NCBE questions. That means you should get about 70% correct on the Very Easy to Average MBE questions on the exam (the more recent the questions, the more they fall into the Harder than Average category, such as the 2017 MBE Study Aid). So if you only practice on the released NCBE questions, you will not have a lot of exposure to the Harder than Average to Extremely Difficult questions expected to represent 44% of the MBE exam. So if 56% of the 175 graded MBE questions are represented in the NCBE questions you practiced on and you get 70% correct, then you will answer 69 correctly. If 44% of the 175 graded MBE questions are Harder than Average to Extremely Difficult and you get 50% correct, then you will answer 39 of these correctly. This adds up to 108/175, which is a bit short from the 125/175 you want. Again, these are just estimates. I see some examinees only use Adaptibar and get a 160 on the MBE while others get a 120. It really depends on the person, but the safest thing to do is to mix up your MBE practice so you have a better chance of encountering a wide range of question difficulties. I talk about this more in one of my older posts here:
viewtopic.php?f=41&t=285171&p=10287261&hilit=to+obtain+the+rationales+for+why+the+options#p10287261

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby pech71 » Fri May 04, 2018 11:30 am

What would 158.8 MBE and 155 MEE put me at Joe!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby bluegreen » Fri May 04, 2018 11:41 am

Are you able to provide similar feedback for Texas scores? Sorry if you mentioned this already.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Fri May 04, 2018 12:21 pm

pech71 wrote:What would 158.8 MBE and 155 MEE put me at Joe!


I'm pretty sure I just emailed you. Based on your scaled MBE score of 158.8, your estimated raw MBE score was about 139/175 correct (based on F13 NY scale). This means you answered about 79.4% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 94.6% percentile for the MBE. This means that 5.4% of Feb examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 158.8 (based on F16 national data). Based on a total score of 313.8, this means your written score was 155 which would have placed you in the 91.4% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 8.6% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT). Great job!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Fri May 04, 2018 12:40 pm

bluegreen wrote:Are you able to provide similar feedback for Texas scores? Sorry if you mentioned this already.


If you tell me your MBE and total score, I can convert your total score to UBE and give you some UBE stats although the essay estimation will probably be pretty off, especially since the MBE in TX is 40% instead of 50%. If 50 or so F18 TX failers send me their scores, I can figure out the raw essay scores for the 12 essays and make a calculator. I just need the data.

By the way, in examining the average pass rates in Texas over the past 20 years of reported information, the February Overall Pass Rate is 65.1% (16,265 Overall Passers/24,997 Overall Takers from 1995-2016). In F18 it was 45%. I expect bar exam pass rates to continue to decline until at least 2019. Bar exam pass rates are tied to the MBE (e.g. if the MBE average for an administration goes up, the pass rates almost always go up). MBE scores are correlated with LSAT scores. Thus, I use the 25th Percentile LSAT and 75th Percentile LSAT as a barometer for pass rates. If the Average LSAT for a class of matriculants drops as compared to the prior class, I similarly expect their bar exam pass rates to drop as compared to the prior class (the raw data can be viewed here: http://www.abarequireddisclosures.org). The 2013 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who took the bar exam in 2016) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 153.6 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 159.5. The 2014 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who took the bar exam in 2017) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 153.2 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 159.3. The 2015 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who take the bar exam in 2018) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 153.1 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 159.1 (even lower). The 2016 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who take the bar exam in 2019) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 151.2 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 157.2 (even lower). Thus, because the Full-Time Law School Matriculants are becoming statistically less capable with each passing year, it is reasonable to presume that the July bar pass rates will be lower each year.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby bluegreen » Fri May 04, 2018 12:51 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
bluegreen wrote:Are you able to provide similar feedback for Texas scores? Sorry if you mentioned this already.


If you tell me your MBE and total score, I can convert your total score to UBE and give you some UBE stats although the essay estimation will probably be pretty off, especially since the MBE in TX is 40% instead of 50%. If 50 or so F18 TX failers send me their scores, I can figure out the raw essay scores for the 12 essays and make a calculator. I just need the data.

By the way, in examining the average pass rates in Texas over the past 20 years of reported information, the February Overall Pass Rate is 65.1% (16,265 Overall Passers/24,997 Overall Takers from 1995-2016). In F18 it was 45%. I expect bar exam pass rates to continue to decline until at least 2019. Bar exam pass rates are tied to the MBE (e.g. if the MBE average for an administration goes up, the pass rates almost always go up). MBE scores are correlated with LSAT scores. Thus, I use the 25th Percentile LSAT and 75th Percentile LSAT as a barometer for pass rates. If the Average LSAT for a class of matriculants drops as compared to the prior class, I similarly expect their bar exam pass rates to drop as compared to the prior class (the raw data can be viewed here: http://www.abarequireddisclosures.org). The 2013 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who took the bar exam in 2016) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 153.6 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 159.5. The 2014 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who took the bar exam in 2017) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 153.2 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 159.3. The 2015 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who take the bar exam in 2018) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 153.1 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 159.1 (even lower). The 2016 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who take the bar exam in 2019) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 151.2 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 157.2 (even lower). Thus, because the Full-Time Law School Matriculants are becoming statistically less capable with each passing year, it is reasonable to presume that the July bar pass rates will be lower each year.


Useful info, thank you. Yeah the F18 pass rate was quite low. My scores weren't great but I passed. MBE 138.7, final score 689.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Fri May 04, 2018 1:37 pm

bluegreen wrote:Useful info, thank you. Yeah the F18 pass rate was quite low. My scores weren't great but I passed. MBE 138.7, final score 689.


Any pass is a good pass. Based on your scaled MBE score of 138.7, your estimated raw MBE score was about 112/175 correct. This is based on the 2013 New York MBE raw/scaled conversion (which is the most recent time a February MBE raw/scaled conversion was released by a state).This means you answered about 64% of the graded MBE questions correctly. Based on the F16 national statistics on the MBE (which serve as a good predictor of this exam’s percentiles), this places you in the 61.2% percentile for the MBE. This means that 38.8% of Feb examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 138.7. Your UBE score would have been about a 276 with a written score of about 137.3. Assuming that the MEE/MPT percentiles follow the national MBE statistics, scoring a 137.3 Scaled written score would have placed you in the 57.4% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 42.6% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the written). Again, this is a really rough estimate because your MBE is only 40% of your score. .

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby bluegreen » Fri May 04, 2018 4:18 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
bluegreen wrote:Useful info, thank you. Yeah the F18 pass rate was quite low. My scores weren't great but I passed. MBE 138.7, final score 689.


Any pass is a good pass. Based on your scaled MBE score of 138.7, your estimated raw MBE score was about 112/175 correct. This is based on the 2013 New York MBE raw/scaled conversion (which is the most recent time a February MBE raw/scaled conversion was released by a state).This means you answered about 64% of the graded MBE questions correctly. Based on the F16 national statistics on the MBE (which serve as a good predictor of this exam’s percentiles), this places you in the 61.2% percentile for the MBE. This means that 38.8% of Feb examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 138.7. Your UBE score would have been about a 276 with a written score of about 137.3. Assuming that the MEE/MPT percentiles follow the national MBE statistics, scoring a 137.3 Scaled written score would have placed you in the 57.4% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 42.6% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the written). Again, this is a really rough estimate because your MBE is only 40% of your score. .


Thanks for the info, I appreciate it! Agree, a pass is a pass.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby lawschool11111111 » Tue May 08, 2018 3:15 pm

Hi Joe,

I took the July 2017 CA bar exam. When I found out that I had failed I was almost certain that it was because I bombed the essays and PT. The exact opposite happened; I got a 154 scaled written score and a 131.6 scaled MBE score.

I left day 1 (essay/PT day) feeling completely demoralized. I felt like I BS'd most of my essays. And on top of that I was only able to spend 40 mins on the 90 minute PT. Much to my surprise I ended up getting a 67.5 on the PT, and I even received a score of 80 on the Community Property essay.

I was shocked to find out that I did very poorly on the MBE given the fact that I was doing well in bar prep (I took Kaplan). On the Kaplan MBE midterm and final I believe I got 130/200 and 135/200 respectively.

I think one mistake that I made was that in the several weeks leading up to the exam I stopped doing MBE questions, and focused strictly on the essays. Furthermore, when it came time for day 2 of the MBE I was almost certain that I had bombed the essays/PT. I left day 2 of the MBE thinking that the MBE was tough but never in a million years did I think I would have gotten a 131.56 scaled MBE score.

I took the February 2018 CA bar exam. This time around I spent most, if not all, of my preparation focusing on the MBE. When it came exam time, I felt much more composed during day 1 of the essays/PT (not to say I thought the essays were easier, but I had some idea of what to expect). And I was able to spend all 90 minutes on the PT. As a result, I went into day 2 of the MBE feeling much more composed. Although I must admit that I did leave day 2 of the MBE feeling unsure of my performance, and thinking that the MBE portion was more difficult than July 2017.

I am writing to gain some insight as to why you think there was a significant drop in my MBE score (from being on track to pass during Bar Prep to getting a 131.6), and whether you have heard of spoken with applicants who have had similar experience as me?

I guess if anyone knows why I under-performed it should be me...but I figure you might still have some valuable insight? My guess is that I severely under-performed on the MBE because I stopped doing practice questions in the weeks leading up to the exam and lost momentum + I was mentally unprepared going into day 2 of the MBE as I was almost certain that I had failed after day 1.

Thanks!

Nightcrawler

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Nightcrawler » Tue May 08, 2018 4:35 pm

lawschool11111111 wrote:[...]I got a 154 scaled written score and a 131.6 scaled MBE score.

I left day 1 (essay/PT day) feeling completely demoralized. I felt like I BS'd most of my essays. And on top of that I was only able to spend 40 mins on the 90 minute PT. Much to my surprise I ended up getting a 67.5 on the PT, and I even received a score of 80 on the Community Property essay.

I was shocked to find out that I did very poorly on the MBE given the fact that I was doing well in bar prep (I took Kaplan). On the Kaplan MBE midterm and final I believe I got 130/200 and 135/200 respectively. [...]


Hi, do you mind posting your scores on read and reread? Also, imo your MBE score was accurate compared to your practice scores. If you calculate that the average difference between raw and scaled (in a VERY approximate manner, Joe don't hate me) you may have scored around 115/175 on the MBE, which is 65%, like your Kaplan midterms. Did you use Adaptibar at all? And what was your average if you did?

However, yeah I feel like the MBE must be practiced constantly to keep you in the habit of approaching them quickly so for sure you could've gotten a few extra points if you kept practicing. Of course that may have penalized your written portion though, so don't let this get into your head. Good like with the results, hope you passed!

lawschool11111111

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby lawschool11111111 » Tue May 08, 2018 5:13 pm

Nightcrawler wrote:
lawschool11111111 wrote:[...]I got a 154 scaled written score and a 131.6 scaled MBE score.

I left day 1 (essay/PT day) feeling completely demoralized. I felt like I BS'd most of my essays. And on top of that I was only able to spend 40 mins on the 90 minute PT. Much to my surprise I ended up getting a 67.5 on the PT, and I even received a score of 80 on the Community Property essay.

I was shocked to find out that I did very poorly on the MBE given the fact that I was doing well in bar prep (I took Kaplan). On the Kaplan MBE midterm and final I believe I got 130/200 and 135/200 respectively. [...]


Hi, do you mind posting your scores on read and reread? Also, imo your MBE score was accurate compared to your practice scores. If you calculate that the average difference between raw and scaled (in a VERY approximate manner, Joe don't hate me) you may have scored around 115/175 on the MBE, which is 65%, like your Kaplan midterms. Did you use Adaptibar at all? And what was your average if you did?

However, yeah I feel like the MBE must be practiced constantly to keep you in the habit of approaching them quickly so for sure you could've gotten a few extra points if you kept practicing. Of course that may have penalized your written portion though, so don't let this get into your head. Good like with the results, hope you passed!


Well after receiving my Kaplan Final MBE score, Kaplan issued this e-mail to everyone who had taken the final "If you scored 125+, feel confident in your MBE performance, reinforce and refine, and don't ignore the written portion." I spoke to many of my Kaplan classmates and they stated that they scored in the 120s, with several scoring in the 130s, and most of them passed July 2017 (don't know how they did on each portion since they passed).

On First Read: I got 80, 65, 65, 55, 60 (65 on PT)
On Second Read: I got 65, 65, 65, 60, 60 (70 on PT)
Operant Score: I got 75, 65, 65, 57.5, 60 (67.5 on PT)

Nightcrawler

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Nightcrawler » Tue May 08, 2018 5:30 pm

Oh ok, I had no idea that Kaplan would send such an email. What Adaptibar says is that you can expect to score similarly on the MBE compared to your average on their program so I compared it to that. Thank you for posting your score!



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