The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

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lexingtonhr

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby lexingtonhr » Fri May 24, 2019 9:17 am

Hi Joe, do you also calculate CA bar scores?

I got a 1544 scaled written and a 1286 scaled MBE, total scaled score: 1415.

How many raw points did I get for the MBE and how much do I need to raise it?

we'rebothmenofthelaw

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby we'rebothmenofthelaw » Fri May 24, 2019 10:24 am

Curiosity and vanity have gotten the better of me—can you please tell me where a 169.2 MBE and 336 ube on the feb NY bar would place me?

As far as what I did:

About 70% of Kaplan, with maybe 600 questions plus the full length tests that they schedule. I also did a ton of graded MEE essays (maybe 25 or so) and about 4 mpt’s in addition to the scheduled ones. I found the MEE to be the hardest portion of the the test and so attacked it the hardest, while doing a steady stream of MBE q’s to stay fresh.

In the last two weeks, I read the shorter book outlines for both MBE and MEE (I think they’re called Bar Points) and found those really helpful—the big books were too long, and I didn’t take notes or outline during the class portion, and I thought the quicksheets didn’t have enough meat on the bones.

Biggest thing for me was staying focused and healthy throughout the process. Eating well, exercising, having some creative projects on the side, and staying a little bit social were crucial. Other than the chance to learn a little bit of law I didn’t have a chance to learn in law school, bar study is a pretty joyless experience, so having other things that made me happy were important.

Good luck to all retakers or future takers! You can do this!!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Sun May 26, 2019 5:03 pm

lexingtonhr wrote:Hi Joe, do you also calculate CA bar scores?

I got a 1544 scaled written and a 1286 scaled MBE, total scaled score: 1415.

How many raw points did I get for the MBE and how much do I need to raise it?


I think I just emailed you. If not, based on your scaled MBE score of 128.6, your estimated raw MBE score was about 107/175 correct (based on the last time an MBE scale was released in 2013). This means you answered about 61.1% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 30.3% percentile for the MBE. This means that 69.7% of Feb examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 128.6 (based on national data for the past 7 years).

I attempted to convert your Written and Total Scores to the UBE Scale. I estimate your Total UBE Score would have been 283. Based on a total score of 283, your written score was 154.4, which would have placed you in the 88.3% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 11.7% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT). This means you would likely pass the exam in most UBE states.

Although NCBE does not release percentiles for total UBE scores, if I average your MBE and written percentiles, this would place you in the 59.3% percentile among examinees nationwide based on your total score of 283 (meaning that 40.7% of examinees nationwide scored better than you on the UBE). Please keep in mind this is just an estimate and may be incorrect.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Sun May 26, 2019 5:15 pm

we'rebothmenofthelaw wrote:Curiosity and vanity have gotten the better of me—can you please tell me where a 169.2 MBE and 336 ube on the feb NY bar would place me?

As far as what I did:

About 70% of Kaplan, with maybe 600 questions plus the full length tests that they schedule. I also did a ton of graded MEE essays (maybe 25 or so) and about 4 mpt’s in addition to the scheduled ones. I found the MEE to be the hardest portion of the the test and so attacked it the hardest, while doing a steady stream of MBE q’s to stay fresh.

In the last two weeks, I read the shorter book outlines for both MBE and MEE (I think they’re called Bar Points) and found those really helpful—the big books were too long, and I didn’t take notes or outline during the class portion, and I thought the quicksheets didn’t have enough meat on the bones.

Biggest thing for me was staying focused and healthy throughout the process. Eating well, exercising, having some creative projects on the side, and staying a little bit social were crucial. Other than the chance to learn a little bit of law I didn’t have a chance to learn in law school, bar study is a pretty joyless experience, so having other things that made me happy were important.

Good luck to all retakers or future takers! You can do this!!


Congratulations on passing the F19 NY bar exam. Based on your scaled MBE score of 169.2, your estimated raw MBE score was about 165/175 correct (based on the last time an MBE scale was released in 2013). This means you answered about 94.3% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 98.8% percentile for the MBE. This means that 1.2% of Feb examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 169.2 (based on national data for the past 7 years).

Based on a total score of 336, your written score was 166.8, which would have placed you in the 98.1% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 1.9% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT).

Although NCBE does not release percentiles for total UBE scores, if I average your MBE and written percentiles, this would place you in the 98.5% percentile among examinees nationwide based on your total score of 336 (meaning that 1.6% of examinees nationwide scored better than you on the UBE). Please keep in mind this is just an estimate and may be incorrect.

Great job in your studies. Do you recall your MBE simulated exam scores and overall MBE % correct? I am guessing you were at 70-75% or better.

packer_22

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby packer_22 » Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:40 pm

Joe,

Mike Sims said in the Barbri Livecast today that the highest score on the MBE that he was aware of was a 194. Interesting- that would be 3.5 SDs over a typical July mean. Just wanted to give it to you as a data point. I read through this thread and I didn't see a MBE score over 175.

Thank you for all that you do!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Thu Jul 04, 2019 1:26 pm

packer_22 wrote:Joe,

Mike Sims said in the Barbri Livecast today that the highest score on the MBE that he was aware of was a 194. Interesting- that would be 3.5 SDs over a typical July mean. Just wanted to give it to you as a data point. I read through this thread and I didn't see a MBE score over 175.

Thank you for all that you do!

Thanks! The highest MBE I was aware of prior to that was a 186. Someone who scores that high must see the MBE the same way Neo sees the Matrix.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby HairySmokeball » Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:56 pm

Joe,

Perhaps you can clarify something for me. On your calculator https://seperac.com/zcalc-mbe-febjuly.php if I put in a % correct, it shows the "estimated" scaled score. As an example, lets say 65% correct. The scaled scores show:

Est. scaled MBE score based on the July 2018 scale 146.1
Est. scaled MBE score based on the July 2017 scale 141.0
Est. scaled MBE score based on the July 2013 scale 140.7


Est. scaled MBE score based on the Feb 2018 scale 133.7
Est. scaled MBE score based on the Feb 2017 scale 136.0
Est. scaled MBE score based on the Feb 2013 scale 139.4

So looking at this, it *appears* that for a given % correct, the scaled score seems to be higher in July...actually by a not so insignificant amount. As I understand scaling, this shouldn't be the case. Can you shed some light on this anomaly?

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:49 am

HairySmokeball wrote:Joe,

Perhaps you can clarify something for me. On your calculator https://seperac.com/zcalc-mbe-febjuly.php if I put in a % correct, it shows the "estimated" scaled score. As an example, lets say 65% correct. The scaled scores show:

Est. scaled MBE score based on the July 2018 scale 146.1
Est. scaled MBE score based on the July 2017 scale 141.0
Est. scaled MBE score based on the July 2013 scale 140.7


Est. scaled MBE score based on the Feb 2018 scale 133.7
Est. scaled MBE score based on the Feb 2017 scale 136.0
Est. scaled MBE score based on the Feb 2013 scale 139.4

So looking at this, it *appears* that for a given % correct, the scaled score seems to be higher in July...actually by a not so insignificant amount. As I understand scaling, this shouldn't be the case. Can you shed some light on this anomaly?

First, keep in mind that the recent scales (i.e. 2017-2018) are guesstimates as the last time NCBE released a raw/scaled MBE chart was in 2013. Next, you should look at the average because the scaled to raw scores vary every year. For example, I looked at 31 MBE scales from 1990-2013 where actual data exists. At 65% correct, the highest Feb scaled MBE was 150 while the highest July scaled MBE was 148. The lowest Feb scaled MBE was 137 while the lowest July scaled MBE was 139. The average Feb MBE was 142.8 while the average July MBE was 143.2. So for the upcoming exam, if you average 65% correct on the 175 graded MBE questions, your scaled MBE score could range between 139-148 with an expected score of about 143.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Navy22 » Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:31 pm

Hey Joe,

Any idea of what J19 expectations should be for the curve? Do you think it would be closer to J18 or previous ones? I am trying to get a 260, I sat last week and just need my score to be good for transfer purposes.

Thanks!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Sun Aug 11, 2019 2:17 pm

Navy22 wrote:Hey Joe,

Any idea of what J19 expectations should be for the curve? Do you think it would be closer to J18 or previous ones? I am trying to get a 260, I sat last week and just need my score to be good for transfer purposes.

Thanks!


The national pass rate for First-Time examinees in July is 78% (based on NCBE data from 1995-2017) meaning only about 2 of every 10 First-Time examinees fail. Bar exam pass rates are tied to the mean MBE (e.g. if the MBE average for an administration goes up, the pass rates almost always go up) and MBE scores are correlated with LSAT scores. The 2014 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who took the bar exam in 2017) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 152.5 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 158.7. The 2015 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who took the bar exam in 2018) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 152.4 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 158.4. The 2016 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who took the bar exam in 2019) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 151.2 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 157.2. The 2017 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who take the bar exam in 2020) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 152.7 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 158.6. Finally, the 2018 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who take the bar exam in 2021) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 153.6 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 159.4.

Thus, because the 2016 Full-Time Law School Matriculants appear to be less knowledgeable than the 2015 Full-Time Law School Matriculants, it is reasonable to presume that the July 2019/Feb 2019 bar pass rates will be lower than the July 2018/Feb 2018 bar pass rates. After that, I expect pass rates to increase because the corresponding LSAT percentiles increased. However, no one really never knows. For example, I have seen where pass rates went up even though the corresponding LSAT percentiles went down, so it really is anyone’s guess.

To me, the best predictor of whether you will pass are your demographics along with your MBE practice scores while studying. To determine whether you are at-risk of failing, enter your information into my UBE Score Estimator:

http://www.seperac.com/zcalc-passcalc.php

The calculator does a good job of estimating the scores of First Time Domestic examinees because there a lot of solid data available. The calculator is much more unreliable with repeaters and foreign examinees because there is much less data for these demographics. As I collect more data from examinees, the calculator should get more reliable, but currently only 3% of examinees who use the calculator follow up with me with their results so it will be a while.

If the calculator estimates you to pass by 20+ points, you are likely going to pass assuming you are doing all the things typical of a first-time examinee which essentially consists of studying full time for about two months and taking a reputable bar review course. If the calculator estimates you to pass by 20+ points and you are at 60-65% correct or better in overall MBE practice, I would expect you to pass comfortably. Basically, take the UBE Score estimate with a grain of salt, but look at your current MBE practice scores as the final arbiter. For example, if the calculator has you passing by 21 points and you were at 70% correct or better overall in MBE practice, you are in very good territory and the results will likely be on point. However, if you were only 60% correct overall in MBE practice, your results will likely shade down (making it possibly too close to call).

I expect it to get harder and harder to understanding the scoring/scaling of the exam as I am finding the bar examiners are moving towards the release of less and less exam information (e.g. NJ used to release the individual essay scores but stopped doing so in July 2015 which makes it impossible to figure out essay scaling).

To anyone who has failed the UBE exam, I am starting a project where I will figure out the scales for the reporting UBE states while I still can. I will then make a calculator that compares all the scales. If you are interested in helping out (and would like to get a free 16 page score analysis report in exchange), please fill out the following form:

https://seperac.com/scoreform.php

dpcjsa

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby dpcjsa » Sat Sep 07, 2019 5:26 pm

Hi Joe,

I know someone who may have to re-take the UBE some day, so how does he register with you for assistance? Do you offer different types of packages?

Yes, I can Google you. I just thought it would be great to have a summary here.

Thank you.

b290

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby b290 » Sun Sep 08, 2019 10:10 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:I expect it to get harder and harder to understanding the scoring/scaling of the exam as I am finding the bar examiners are moving towards the release of less and less exam information (e.g. NJ used to release the individual essay scores but stopped doing so in July 2015 which makes it impossible to figure out essay scaling).

This is part of the problem. How is someone supposed to eventually pass - presuming (s)he failed - without individual essay scores?

On another note, would you want my data to add to the database? I figured it'd be a bit more useful since the more repeater data collected, the better.

My $.02

TheJuryMustDie

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby TheJuryMustDie » Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:59 am

Hi Joe!

What do you think this means for the MEE scaling, especially for NY? :http://www.ncbex.org/news/july-2019-mbe/

Many thanks!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby FlapJackJim » Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:41 pm

Alright, Seperac, I've got one for you and I'm looking for some help. I happened to score way higher on the July 2019 bar than I ever thought I would. What do you think my raw score MBE is, and just how good is this score? I know its up there, but is it "highest score of the administration" up there? Total UBE: 355, MBE: 175.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:56 pm

Navy22 wrote:Hey Joe,

Any idea of what J19 expectations should be for the curve? Do you think it would be closer to J18 or previous ones? I am trying to get a 260, I sat last week and just need my score to be good for transfer purposes.

Thanks!

Last year's July MBE mean was the 3rd lowest since 1972. This year's J19 MBE mean was the 16th lowest (based on the last 48 July MBE exams). I would expect pass rates to improve from last year as a result. So far the Oklahoma pass rate went from 75% in J18 to 77% in J19 while the Kansas pass rate went from 73% in J18 to 85% in J19.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby DepressedWorkerBee » Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:12 pm

Random question - so with the MBE mean being higher than average - how would this impact the Texas Bar Exam? I think the essay scaling is correlated to the MBE scaling - so should we expect a likely increase in the pass rates?

Help me sleep better tonight!

JoeSeperac

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:48 pm

dpcjsa wrote:Hi Joe,

I know someone who may have to re-take the UBE some day, so how does he register with you for assistance? Do you offer different types of packages?

Yes, I can Google you. I just thought it would be great to have a summary here.

Thank you.

Honestly, the best thing to do would be to email me. If someone fails the UBE, I can give them a lot of insight into where they went wrong just from their past scores. This is a sample of the report I send to examinees who provide me with their UBE scores (assuming your jurisdiction gives you a comprehensive breakdown):

https://www.seperac.com/bar/pdf/Seperac ... BE-J18.pdf

This will tell you if it was the MBE, MEE or MPT that brought you down the most. It will also tell you how you compared to others and what your worst to best areas of the exam were (e.g. the subject of Contracts, the MPT Memo, etc). I make a similar analysis report for the MEE/MPT essays themselves. These confidential reports are free - I regard it as a quid pro quo where I get your exam data to study while you get a useful analysis of your performance. To date, I've sent this score report to 5,000+ examinees and the essay report to 700+ examinees. I have a retaker form for this which contains all the questions I would typically ask someone who failed so I don't have to keep bombarding you with questions:

https://www.seperac.com/scoreform.php

Over the years I've learned that passing the exam depends much more on the person than the material. That said, if you are a lower-ability examinee, inefficient study is probably the biggest problem you need to address. Inefficient study affects all examinees, but it most seriously impacts at-risk examinees. I regard an at-risk examinee as one who is statistically more likely to fail the exam than pass it. This demographic of "At risk-examinees" includes all repeat takers and most part-time studiers. For example, over the past 20 years in New York, the February ABA Repeaters Pass Rate is 45.2% while the July ABA Repeaters Pass Rate is 32.5%. The repeater rates for foreign examinees are even lower. If you failed, there is a strong likelihood you need to improve the efficiency of your studies (e.g. you are a foreign examinee who needs to learn the law plus do a large number of MBE questions, or you are domestic educated candidate who failed because you spent too much time on the lectures/videos and not enough time on practice, or you are an examinee who is working while studying).

I find that bar reviews give examinees too much information which forces lower-ability examinees to study more information than they need at the expense of topics which may be more likely to appear. Inefficient study affects all examinees, but it most seriously impacts at-risk examinees. When a high-ability examinee studies for the bar exam, these examinees understand the material better because they had previously understood it in law school (you don’t get high grades in law school unless you demonstrate your knowledge of the subject matter on exams). These examinees generally also have good writing ability and good memory capacity (which contribute to both law school success and bar exam success). Thus, a high-ability examinee can do inefficient things like passively listen to all the bar review lectures and still do fine on the exam (they may score a 310 instead of 330). However, the lower your ability, the less room for error you have in your studying. For example, I strongly believe examinees MUST do well on the MBE in order to pass. There will always be outliers where examinees pass based on a low MBE score and a high written score, but in general it is the best measure of an examinee’s ability. This opinion is shared by NCBE who recently stated that "MBE scores are highly related to total bar exam scores." In a perfect world with no time constraints, you would memorize your full outlines and then answer each NCBE MBE question over and over until you fully understood the law behind every single NCBE question. However, all examinees are limited in some way by study time, memory capacity, and exam ability.

I made the UBE Score Estimator (https://www.seperac.com/zcalc-passcalc.php) so examinees can predict an estimate of their total UBE score based on the entered demographic/grade data. The further away you are from passing, the fewer inefficiencies you can have in your studies. For example, a Domestic-educated Caucasian First-Time examinee with a high LSAT/LGPA can study rather inefficiently (e.g. not study full-time, put a lower percentage of their time into MBE study, or answer MBE practice questions from only one source, or answer only a few hundred MBE questions in practice) and still pass the exam. In contrast, if you are on the other end of the spectrum (Foreign-educated Non-Caucasian Repeat-Taker), you can’t afford any inefficiencies in your studies. For example, if someone takes Barbri, they should focus on the Conviser and forget about the "Lecture Handouts" and the "Outlines for Multistate" (although the big Outline book can be used in rare instances where you simply cannot understand a concept in the Conviser). In regards to the video lectures, while it is very easy to watch the videos, it is merely passive studying (so your mind is more likely to wander). Whenever an examinee fails the exam and fills-out my post-exam form, the most common response to the question "What helped you the least in bar prep" is video lectures.

So I try to make bar materials to help you study/practice more efficiently. A good example of this are my OPE 643 questions. I explain why these questions are important here:
https://mberules.com/ope-643-mbe-questions/

You can get these same released NCBE MBE questions other sources such as Adaptibar, Barmax, etc. although they aren't broken down in the way I break them down. However you do it, the key is that you master the OPE questions before spending any time on the NON-OPE questions because a lot of the NON-OPE are simply no longer relevant. Again, if you are a high-ability examinee, answering the NON OPE questions really won't really affect whether you pass or not. However, for examinees who are statistically at the cusp of passing, if they spend time on the NON-OPE at the expense of the OPE, they are making a mistake. For examinees who don't have the time to answer the released NCBE questions, I have an MBE Rules outline that covers these 1,800+ questions. I also have a 175 page black letter law MBE outline (F20 edition wont be done until sometime in December). Subscribers generally treat this outline as their MBE bible and adjust their MBE studying based on it. For example, if there is very little coverage for a topic in my MBE outline but it is heavily covered in your Barbri/Kaplan/Themis/etc. materials, you should pay less attention to it. Conversely, if my outline stresses a topic but it is not covered in your materials, you need to learn it. I also make MP3 audio versions of my materials (but not the MBE outline because it's too difficult to convert). This enables examinees to pick up extra study in places they normally might not (commuting, gym, cooking). I have MP3s of the released MEE essay questions and answers, of my MBE rules, and even the OPE 643. I also structure the audio so it's not 100% passive study. For example, the OPE 643 MP3 reads an OPE question to you, pauses to give you chance to answer in your head, then reads the correct answer choice and its explanation. To me, this is as passive as your study should be - anything more passive than this and you are once again treading into the territory of inefficient study.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:59 pm

FlapJackJim wrote:Alright, Seperac, I've got one for you and I'm looking for some help. I happened to score way higher on the July 2019 bar than I ever thought I would. What do you think my raw score MBE is, and just how good is this score? I know its up there, but is it "highest score of the administration" up there? Total UBE: 355, MBE: 175.


Congratulations on passing! Great scores too. For all the interested top scorers, the highest UBE score I've received to date is 362 and the highest MBE score was 181.

An interesting factoid: Assuming all your MEE/MPT scores were the same (65's based on my J18 NY calculator), you could have left all 6 MEEs blank and still passed.

Based on your scaled MBE score of 175, your estimated raw MBE score was about 164/175 correct (based on the last time an MBE scale was released in 2013). This means you answered about 93.7% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 99.1% percentile for the MBE. This means that 0.9% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 175 (based on national data for the past 7 years).

Although NCBE does not release percentiles for total UBE scores, if I average your MBE and written percentiles, this would place you in the 99.1% percentile among examinees nationwide based on your total score of (meaning that 0.9% of examinees nationwide scored better than you on the UBE). Please keep in mind this is just an estimate and may be incorrect.

If you don't mind, how many questions did you answer in practice, from what sources (e.g. Barbri, Kaplan, Adaptibar, NCBE) and what was your overall % correct?

JoeSeperac

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:04 pm

DepressedWorkerBee wrote:Random question - so with the MBE mean being higher than average - how would this impact the Texas Bar Exam? I think the essay scaling is correlated to the MBE scaling - so should we expect a likely increase in the pass rates?

Help me sleep better tonight!

Your wish is my command! The July Texas pass rates generally track the national July MBE mean. Take a look at my table of 1995-2017 Texas July results and sleep better tonight.

Image

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:11 pm

b290 wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:I expect it to get harder and harder to understanding the scoring/scaling of the exam as I am finding the bar examiners are moving towards the release of less and less exam information (e.g. NJ used to release the individual essay scores but stopped doing so in July 2015 which makes it impossible to figure out essay scaling).

This is part of the problem. How is someone supposed to eventually pass - presuming (s)he failed - without individual essay scores?

On another note, would you want my data to add to the database? I figured it'd be a bit more useful since the more repeater data collected, the better.

My $.02


Absolutely! Post away. I collect every piece of information I receive and I love getting anomalous information (e.g. you didn't answer an essay) because it helps me figure things out.

FlapJackJim

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby FlapJackJim » Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:57 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
FlapJackJim wrote:Alright, Seperac, I've got one for you and I'm looking for some help. I happened to score way higher on the July 2019 bar than I ever thought I would. What do you think my raw score MBE is, and just how good is this score? I know its up there, but is it "highest score of the administration" up there? Total UBE: 355, MBE: 175.


Congratulations on passing! Great scores too. For all the interested top scorers, the highest UBE score I've received to date is 362 and the highest MBE score was 181.

An interesting factoid: Assuming all your MEE/MPT scores were the same (65's based on my J18 NY calculator), you could have left all 6 MEEs blank and still passed.

Based on your scaled MBE score of 175, your estimated raw MBE score was about 164/175 correct (based on the last time an MBE scale was released in 2013). This means you answered about 93.7% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 99.1% percentile for the MBE. This means that 0.9% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 175 (based on national data for the past 7 years).

Although NCBE does not release percentiles for total UBE scores, if I average your MBE and written percentiles, this would place you in the 99.1% percentile among examinees nationwide based on your total score of (meaning that 0.9% of examinees nationwide scored better than you on the UBE). Please keep in mind this is just an estimate and may be incorrect.

If you don't mind, how many questions did you answer in practice, from what sources (e.g. Barbri, Kaplan, Adaptibar, NCBE) and what was your overall % correct?


Thanks for responding. I essentially did the Barbri program to a T. Completed 100% of it, plus maybe 150ish extra questions that Barbri has that were actual previously released MBE questions. A few things to note, in case this is of interest for your data bank: (1) I got a 177/200 raw score on the Barbri MBE midterm, (2) I was at the top of the class at a T-14, and (3) your score predictor thing (with the UGPA, LSAT, school band, etc.) predicted I would get a 346. Numbers 2 and 3 I guess make it no surprise that I got the score I did, and #3 shows that your predictor is at least somewhat accurate. For all others looking at this, though: I too felt that I failed when I left the exam, and felt like it was way harder than anything Barbri attempted to prepare us for.

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BeeTeeZ

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby BeeTeeZ » Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:16 pm

Hi Joe,

Could you please tell me my UBE and MEE ranks? Thank you so much!

UBE: 298
MEE: 140

nrthwst4now

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby nrthwst4now » Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:48 am

Hi Joe -

Could you help me understand how my score stacks up?

UBE: 323
MBE: 156 (was told in results this was the 78.7 percentile)
MEE: 166.7

Thanks.

JoeSeperac

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:03 am

FlapJackJim wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:
FlapJackJim wrote:Alright, Seperac, I've got one for you and I'm looking for some help. I happened to score way higher on the July 2019 bar than I ever thought I would. What do you think my raw score MBE is, and just how good is this score? I know its up there, but is it "highest score of the administration" up there? Total UBE: 355, MBE: 175.


Congratulations on passing! Great scores too. For all the interested top scorers, the highest UBE score I've received to date is 362 and the highest MBE score was 181.

An interesting factoid: Assuming all your MEE/MPT scores were the same (65's based on my J18 NY calculator), you could have left all 6 MEEs blank and still passed.

Based on your scaled MBE score of 175, your estimated raw MBE score was about 164/175 correct (based on the last time an MBE scale was released in 2013). This means you answered about 93.7% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 99.1% percentile for the MBE. This means that 0.9% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 175 (based on national data for the past 7 years).

Although NCBE does not release percentiles for total UBE scores, if I average your MBE and written percentiles, this would place you in the 99.1% percentile among examinees nationwide based on your total score of (meaning that 0.9% of examinees nationwide scored better than you on the UBE). Please keep in mind this is just an estimate and may be incorrect.

If you don't mind, how many questions did you answer in practice, from what sources (e.g. Barbri, Kaplan, Adaptibar, NCBE) and what was your overall % correct?


Thanks for responding. I essentially did the Barbri program to a T. Completed 100% of it, plus maybe 150ish extra questions that Barbri has that were actual previously released MBE questions. A few things to note, in case this is of interest for your data bank: (1) I got a 177/200 raw score on the Barbri MBE midterm, (2) I was at the top of the class at a T-14, and (3) your score predictor thing (with the UGPA, LSAT, school band, etc.) predicted I would get a 346. Numbers 2 and 3 I guess make it no surprise that I got the score I did, and #3 shows that your predictor is at least somewhat accurate. For all others looking at this, though: I too felt that I failed when I left the exam, and felt like it was way harder than anything Barbri attempted to prepare us for.

Thanks for the followup. After scoring a 177/200 on the Barbri midterm, you didn't need me to tell you that you were going to pass. I don't mean to be a pest, but if you have a practice MEE that you answered during bar prep that you can paste into a post, I would love to see it.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:14 am

BeeTeeZ wrote:Hi Joe,

Could you please tell me my UBE and MEE ranks? Thank you so much!

UBE: 298
MEE: 140

Congratulations on passing! Based on your scaled MBE score of 140, your estimated raw MBE score was about 114/175 correct (based on the last time an MBE scale was released in 2013). This means you answered about 65.1% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 44.3% percentile for the MBE. This means that 55.7% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 140 (based on national data for the past 7 years).

Although NCBE does not release percentiles for total UBE scores, if I average your MBE and written percentiles, this would place you in the 44.3% percentile among examinees nationwide based on your total score of (meaning that 55.7% of examinees nationwide scored better than you on the UBE). Please keep in mind this is just an estimate and may be incorrect.

You were a model of consistency by being about 44.3% percentile across the board. Over the past 20 years, there have been about 1,214,744 bar exam takers nationwide and 851,402 bar exam passers for an overall national pass rate of about 70%. So anything better than 30th percentile should lead to a pass in most jurisdictions (except in the crazy state of California).

If you don't mind, if you had to attribute your passing to just one thing, what would that be?



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