The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

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I10attorney

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby I10attorney » Tue Apr 09, 2019 5:27 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
I10attorney wrote:Good morning, Joe. First off, thanks for all you do to keep countless folks semi-sane in the months following the exam. The wait is far worse than the preparation. A few states are releasing scores today. I (and surely hoards of others) am waiting with baited breath for your opinion regarding this administration's mean. Hopefully, your magic machine tells us the scale was more favorable than Feb 2018 :) .

In looking at the Feb 2017 and Feb 2018 Illinois MBE percentiles, I interpolated a national scaled MBE mean of 133.4 for Feb 2019. Although I think I am pretty close, please keep in mind that THIS IS JUST A GUESS. If I am correct, then the MBE mean went up from the Feb 2018 national MBE mean of 132.8 but it would still be the 2nd lowest Feb MBE mean since the MBE was introduced in 1972 (with F18 being the lowest).


Thanks for taking a look, Joe. The released pass/fail statistics from a handful of states had given me some hope until I saw Indiana's - yikes :shock:

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby I10attorney » Tue Apr 09, 2019 5:38 pm

Smiddywesson wrote:
mysojuli wrote:
Smiddywesson wrote:
oldmanroyal wrote:Been 14 years since I past the bar, almost 5 years since I practiced. I'm looking for best advice to get the MBE subjects back in my brain. Any suggestions for relearning (basically from scratch) the material?


Yes, I was out of the law for 30 years. It's easy to get back to this if you know where to begin. If you want a program, I'd recommend JoeSeparac. If you are going it on your own, start with the four OPE Online Exams published by the NCBE. They should reflect the material in the subject matter outline. After that, I'd use a combination of Adaptibar and Barbri questions.

When using Adaptibar, I made four Word documents and cut and paste any rules or tips I derived from reading the answers. Read the answers. If you read all of them, they will correct for what are occasionally weak explanations. I reviewed these seven outlines, deleting items as I mastered them, thereby creating condensed outlines as exam day approached.

Initially, you are going to have to push to stay within time limits. I read the short fact patterns slow, and the long ones fast. There are a LOT of simple fact patterns with red herrings that waste a boatload of time. Burn through those bad boys. It's counterintuitive, but you have to do it. I also read the call once, after the fact pattern. A lot of people tell you to read it first, but I kept records, and that didn't help all that often, certainly not enough to counteract the problem of reading it first increases the number of dumb mistakes. You can't read it twice at first, even if it only takes ten seconds, 10 x 200 questions equals 33 minutes in a six hour test.
Finally, your time will greatly improve, thereby allowing you to read the call twice, and all of the answers, even when you think you know which one is correct. That also increases your score.

Finally, understand this is a frustrating process. You WILL, for example, get worse at CivPro as you add Property, and continue to backslide every time you add another subject. Most importantly, understand that this is not a linear process, so you won't see steady improvement until the end. One day you will be a hero, and the next day you will be a dummy. That's normal too.
Protect your psyche. When I was tired or hung over, I did more research and study and less questions. There's so much that goes into performance, you don't want to beat yourself up over the obvious. You will also hit barriers along the way. I hit a plateau at 68%, 75%, and 85%. I finished in the low 90s by changing my time management and instituting the aforementioned methods. There's really no limit on how well you do, the real issue is you just run out of time.

Use the analytics, they will help you sleep at night when you see how wretched everyone is, and steer you in the right direction with studying subtopics.

Good luck.


Smiddy you've been constantly giving some GREAT advice. I've Screenshotted all of your tips/tricks and advice. When you pass (or maybe now??) you should make one master post condensing all your advice into one post. I think it would be full of great insights!


Well that was very nice. Thanks. I certainly have a lot of notes, however if I published some of my opinions on why the NCBE keeps ramping up security procedures, and why certain bar companies write their own questions, I'm fairly sure I'd get my ass sued. :lol:


I'm inclined to second that motion, mysojuli. His advice and encouragement have been well-placed and genuine. He's lifted the spirits of many a weary traveler who has traversed the forums these five weeks, myself included. :)

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Smiddywesson » Wed Apr 10, 2019 9:49 am

LOL, we'll see how "uplifting" I am tomorrow when Mississippi releases the pass list. There might be a slight downturn in my demeanor in the near future. :twisted: I keep thinking about that broken laptop and what could have gone better on the essays. On the other hand, I found this great thread yesterday from 2016. It was titled something like "horror stories and still passed." Talk about uplifting, every one of these stories is amazing. All we do is torture ourselves while waiting for grades over what went wrong, and then this thread comes along with people pouring their hearts out about how bad the bar went and yet they still passed. It's a must read, so I bumped it up the front page.

Thanks for your kind words.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby I10attorney » Wed Apr 10, 2019 1:45 pm

Smiddywesson wrote:LOL, we'll see how "uplifting" I am tomorrow when Mississippi releases the pass list. There might be a slight downturn in my demeanor in the near future. :twisted: I keep thinking about that broken laptop and what could have gone better on the essays. On the other hand, I found this great thread yesterday from 2016. It was titled something like "horror stories and still passed." Talk about uplifting, every one of these stories is amazing. All we do is torture ourselves while waiting for grades over what went wrong, and then this thread comes along with people pouring their hearts out about how bad the bar went and yet they still passed. It's a must read, so I bumped it up the front page.

Thanks for your kind words.


You're welcome AND deserving of each of those kind words :!: All the best tomorrow :) I have a few weeks of waiting left. Texas announced May 2nd as their release date.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby TheJuryMustDie » Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:29 pm

FYI Joe.

Encouraging Feb. '19 MBE mean especially for repeaters. See link from NCBE: http://www.ncbex.org/news/february-2019-mbe-score/

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:47 pm

TheJuryMustDie wrote:FYI Joe.

Encouraging Feb. '19 MBE mean especially for repeaters. See link from NCBE: http://www.ncbex.org/news/february-2019-mbe-score/


I can't help but think that the bottom has been reached. If you look at the number of passing candidates nationally from 1996-2017 (NCBE hasn't released 2018 stats yet), the number of admitted attorneys has never been lower (just 41,812 in 2017 versus 51,723 in 1996). With a growing population and economy, this has to reverse.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby febtaker2019 » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:06 pm

Is there any correlation between when NY will release and the April 15 article? Or any insight into NY release?

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:53 pm

Anon-non-anon wrote:Thanks so much and of course I don't mind! Least I can do is share what I remember (which is limited). My general approach was to focus on multiple choice, as I had read you can do really badly on the essays and still pass. Plus you can always BS an essay.

I used Kaplan, and focused almost exclusively on doing multiple choice questions once I got through the video modules on each topic. I didn't do any of the review "outlining" (they program in like an hour to outline an entire topic, it was totally non-doable). I did/outlined a couple essays/week, but that was really it other than doing multiple choice questions and limited review of the "handout" stuff you fill in with the videos.

On multiple choice, I used the big practice book and the phone app (which was buggy but convenient) with all topics. I would do between 10 and 50 and then check my answers. No idea how many I did in total, but I would spend about 4-6 hours each day doing them. By the end I was getting around 90%.

I thought Kaplan did a great job with the multiple choice questions. All my friends that did Barbri said they didn't feel prepared. For me, by the end, the basic structure was familiar for all of them. I just spent the summer hanging out on my roof filling in bubbles or doing quizzes on my phone. It was actually a pretty good time.


Thanks. Scoring 90% correct in practice just before the exam suggested an MBE of 171 so you outperformed on the exam. I find that if someone can be at 80-90% correct in MBE practice about two weeks before the exam using Barbri or Kaplan questions, they are going to score very well on the MBE.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:15 pm

febtaker2019 wrote:Is there any correlation between when NY will release and the April 15 article? Or any insight into NY release?

There is no correlation between when NY will release and the publication of the NCBE article. In 2010, someone found the NY pass list by going into a directory where it would be expected prior to it being released. Other than that, there has never been any indication of when scores would be released. Likewise, being able to re-register (or receiving C&F emails) has no bearing on whether you passed or not. Over the years, I’ve debunked numerous theories about indicators of passing/failing such as whether a high seat # leads to failing more often (seat #s can give a clue to the graders as to whether someone is a retaker or a late registrant) or even whether a prior low MPRE score results in graders grading more harshly. To me, the best indication of whether you will pass is your overall % correct in MBE practice.

Below is a list of past NY February release dates. My guess is going to be next Wednesday April 24 which would be 56 days from the exam

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby febtaker2019 » Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:20 pm

thank you!!!!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby willaw1 » Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:42 am

Hi, Joe.

I just received South Carolina Feb 2019 UBE results. Could you help me convert an overall UBE SCORE: 312, with scaled MBE SCORE: 146.9. I am curious about how the MEE/MPT section factored and what percentiles those scores convert to.

Thank you!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby TheJuryMustDie » Mon Apr 22, 2019 3:08 pm

Curios to know if anyone received this email as well.

"I received an email from the Third Division barely two weeks after the bar exam, letter stated that the NYBOLE notified them I took the recent (Feb) bar exam and the email contained an attachment of the Admission Packet for the Third Division. It also stated IF I pass the bar exam and IF the NYBOLE certifies me for admission, the requirements contained in the Admission Packet will need to be complied with before I can be admitted. Last Friday, the Third Division sent another email stating the I have been certified by the NYBOLE for admission to the Third Division. Further through the email it also states that a "copy of the certification notice issued by the State Board of Law Examiners is a necessary part of [my] application package."

I have not been notified by the State Board of Law Examiners (I'm guessing this is the NYBOLE) about my certification. I have not received anything in the mail either.

Did anyone else receive this from the other admission divisions? Anyone know what it means to be "certified for admission by the NYBOLE"? "

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:09 pm

willaw1 wrote:Hi, Joe.

I just received South Carolina Feb 2019 UBE results. Could you help me convert an overall UBE SCORE: 312, with scaled MBE SCORE: 146.9. I am curious about how the MEE/MPT section factored and what percentiles those scores convert to.

Thank you!

Congratulations on passing the F19 exam. Based on your scaled MBE score of 146.9, your estimated raw MBE score was about 133/175 correct (based on my estimate of the MBE scale). This means you answered about 76% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 75.4% percentile for the MBE. This means that 24.6% of Feb examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 146.9 (based on national data for the past 7 years).

Based on a total score of 312, this means your written score was 165.1, which would have placed you in the 97.6% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 2.4% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT).

On the MBE, examinees usually score close to their MBE practice scores, especially if they have done a large number of MBE questions in practice. If you don't mind, how many questions did you answer in practice, from what sources (e.g. Barbri, Kaplan, Adaptibar, NCBE) and what was your overall % correct?

To anyone who failed F19 and has their score info, I can give you some additional stats on your scoring (once I receive about 100 scores and figure out the scaling) if you fill out this form:
https://seperac.com/subscoreform.php

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:15 pm

TheJuryMustDie wrote:Curios to know if anyone received this email as well.

"I received an email from the Third Division barely two weeks after the bar exam, letter stated that the NYBOLE notified them I took the recent (Feb) bar exam and the email contained an attachment of the Admission Packet for the Third Division. It also stated IF I pass the bar exam and IF the NYBOLE certifies me for admission, the requirements contained in the Admission Packet will need to be complied with before I can be admitted. Last Friday, the Third Division sent another email stating the I have been certified by the NYBOLE for admission to the Third Division. Further through the email it also states that a "copy of the certification notice issued by the State Board of Law Examiners is a necessary part of [my] application package."

I have not been notified by the State Board of Law Examiners (I'm guessing this is the NYBOLE) about my certification. I have not received anything in the mail either.

Did anyone else receive this from the other admission divisions? Anyone know what it means to be "certified for admission by the NYBOLE"? "

I believe that NYBOLE itself does not know who passed or failed until just a few days before results are released. Accordingly, emails sent out prior to exam results cannot act as an indication of whether an examinee passed or failed the exam.

For example, one examinee told me the following a few years ago: “I took the February exam and today, the board sent me an email regarding application materials for admissions. I took my test in Buffalo (which is 3rd department) and my friend who took the test in Manhattan (2nd department) did not receive any email from the board yet. Is it usual? Or is it any indication of the result of the exam?” This examinee subsequently failed the exam. What I believe happens is that the Third Department processes C&F much faster than the Second Department, but this doesn’t mean anything about whether you passed.

Even if you received inconsistent emails, this is not an indication of anything except NYBOLE’s carelessness. For example, in September 2014, the 3rd division sent out their "Admission to the New York State Bar on behalf of the Third Department" (e-mail with application instructions) to only a small number of 3rd Dept examinees on September 9th and then to all 3rd Dept examinees on September 16th. The fact that someone received two emails instead of one had no bearing on whether they passed or failed – it was merely a mass-email problem. Likewise, the MPRE has no bearing on your pass/fail status (some examinees have actually worried that their MPRE scores had a bearing on whether they passed the bar exam or not). For example, in my J16 post-exam follow up where 34 examinees responded, I found that the examinee with the lowest reported MPRE score (65) passed the J16 exam.

Its torture to wait, but it really should only be a few more days.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby willaw1 » Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:29 am

Thanks, Joe.
And I just read here that the national MBE mean for F19 is 134.0.
http://www.ncbex.org/news/february-2019-mbe-score/
Is it possible to figure out overall percentage for the entire UBE score too? Or is there not enough data released to figure that out?

As far as prep, I had taken the J15 NY Bar (before they adopted UBE) and my scaled MBE was a 142.2. Both then and this winter I took the full Barbri prep course over, last time 10 weeks, this time 8 weeks, and completed most of their mbe practice questions up until the last couple weeks when I got behind. There was a simulated exam we took halfway thru the course; I scored a raw score of 116/200 on it in 2015 and 117/200 on it in 2019. For this spring within the group of other students who took that diagnostic nationally, that score placed me at the 45th percentile of the group.


JoeSeperac wrote:
willaw1 wrote:Hi, Joe.

I just received South Carolina Feb 2019 UBE results. Could you help me convert an overall UBE SCORE: 312, with scaled MBE SCORE: 146.9. I am curious about how the MEE/MPT section factored and what percentiles those scores convert to.

Thank you!

Congratulations on passing the F19 exam. Based on your scaled MBE score of 146.9, your estimated raw MBE score was about 133/175 correct (based on my estimate of the MBE scale). This means you answered about 76% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 75.4% percentile for the MBE. This means that 24.6% of Feb examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 146.9 (based on national data for the past 7 years).

Based on a total score of 312, this means your written score was 165.1, which would have placed you in the 97.6% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 2.4% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT).

On the MBE, examinees usually score close to their MBE practice scores, especially if they have done a large number of MBE questions in practice. If you don't mind, how many questions did you answer in practice, from what sources (e.g. Barbri, Kaplan, Adaptibar, NCBE) and what was your overall % correct?

To anyone who failed F19 and has their score info, I can give you some additional stats on your scoring (once I receive about 100 scores and figure out the scaling) if you fill out this form:
https://seperac.com/subscoreform.php

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby TheJuryMustDie » Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:28 am

JoeSeperac wrote:
TheJuryMustDie wrote:Curios to know if anyone received this email as well.

"I received an email from the Third Division barely two weeks after the bar exam, letter stated that the NYBOLE notified them I took the recent (Feb) bar exam and the email contained an attachment of the Admission Packet for the Third Division. It also stated IF I pass the bar exam and IF the NYBOLE certifies me for admission, the requirements contained in the Admission Packet will need to be complied with before I can be admitted. Last Friday, the Third Division sent another email stating the I have been certified by the NYBOLE for admission to the Third Division. Further through the email it also states that a "copy of the certification notice issued by the State Board of Law Examiners is a necessary part of [my] application package."

I have not been notified by the State Board of Law Examiners (I'm guessing this is the NYBOLE) about my certification. I have not received anything in the mail either.

Did anyone else receive this from the other admission divisions? Anyone know what it means to be "certified for admission by the NYBOLE"? "

I believe that NYBOLE itself does not know who passed or failed until just a few days before results are released. Accordingly, emails sent out prior to exam results cannot act as an indication of whether an examinee passed or failed the exam.

For example, one examinee told me the following a few years ago: “I took the February exam and today, the board sent me an email regarding application materials for admissions. I took my test in Buffalo (which is 3rd department) and my friend who took the test in Manhattan (2nd department) did not receive any email from the board yet. Is it usual? Or is it any indication of the result of the exam?” This examinee subsequently failed the exam. What I believe happens is that the Third Department processes C&F much faster than the Second Department, but this doesn’t mean anything about whether you passed.

Even if you received inconsistent emails, this is not an indication of anything except NYBOLE’s carelessness. For example, in September 2014, the 3rd division sent out their "Admission to the New York State Bar on behalf of the Third Department" (e-mail with application instructions) to only a small number of 3rd Dept examinees on September 9th and then to all 3rd Dept examinees on September 16th. The fact that someone received two emails instead of one had no bearing on whether they passed or failed – it was merely a mass-email problem. Likewise, the MPRE has no bearing on your pass/fail status (some examinees have actually worried that their MPRE scores had a bearing on whether they passed the bar exam or not). For example, in my J16 post-exam follow up where 34 examinees responded, I found that the examinee with the lowest reported MPRE score (65) passed the J16 exam.

Its torture to wait, but it really should only be a few more days.


Thanks, Joe!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby sg.cambs » Wed Apr 24, 2019 6:18 am

Hi Joe

Thanks for all your insight on this thread. NY results are just out - curious to know my percentiles etc if possible: Overall 345, MBE 164

Thanks!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Houstonttt » Wed Apr 24, 2019 7:12 am

sg.cambs wrote:Hi Joe

Thanks for all your insight on this thread. NY results are just out - curious to know my percentiles etc if possible: Overall 345, MBE 164

Thanks!

congrats!!! can share with us what bar review you used for MBE and what was your practice score ranges?? thanks and congrats again

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Lancair » Wed Apr 24, 2019 7:23 am

JoeSeperac wrote:
Lancair wrote:Hi Joe

Thanks for your content in this thread and others, I've enjoyed reading it.

Foreign educated (Australia) sitting the F19 NY bar exam. Your calculator estimates a 266 score.

Studying with Themis. My current stats are 71% correct out of 1353 MBE PQs (all taken closed book), and my average score over the 8 essays graded by Themis is 73%. I've only done one graded MPT and got 100% on that. Do you think I am on track to pass?

Foreign examinees should take the calculator with a grain of salt because there is so little data available on foreign examinees. You are absolutely on track to pass. An examinee who just sent me his score info (domestic T-1) passed J18 with very similar statistics. He told me he did 2,200 MBE practice questions with Themis with an overall 72% correct. He passed with an MBE of 172.5 and UBE of 326. You can shade this down due to the fact you are not a domestic T-1 examinee, but you still appear to be in a very good position to pass comfortably.

Comments from a few other Australian examinees who passed can be read here (search for the word Australia):
https://seperac.com/comments.php

One former subscriber from Australia who passed with an MBE of 175 said “Please feel free to refer any students to me if you think they would benefit from my advice” so please email me directly at joe@seperac.com if you have any questions for him.

FYI, among foreign examinees taking the exam in New York, Australians have the second highest pass rate (Canadians are first). The pass rate for Australian examinees in 2013 was 60.2%. See
http://www.ncbex.org/pdfviewer/?file=%2 ... -bosse.pdf


Hey Joe, your estimate was pretty close: did slightly worse on the MBE, and slightly better on the essays than predicted.

MBE was 168.3 and overall was 338 - can you work out my percentile (also for my girlfriend, who broke the bar exam with her smarts, getting a 173 MBE and 354 overall)?

For those interested in my bar review, I studied with Themis and did pretty much 100%, as well as lightly using Joe's MEE resources (mainly just reading through the sample answers). My overall MCQ practice score was 75%, and my practice exams ranged from 70-80% (full MBE three weeks out was 78%, IIRC). Probably averaged about 4.75/6 on the graded essays.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby sg.cambs » Wed Apr 24, 2019 9:32 am

Houstonttt wrote:
sg.cambs wrote:Hi Joe

Thanks for all your insight on this thread. NY results are just out - curious to know my percentiles etc if possible: Overall 345, MBE 164

Thanks!

congrats!!! can share with us what bar review you used for MBE and what was your practice score ranges?? thanks and congrats again


Thanks! I used Themis - would highly recommend. I am a foreign student and worked full time until about 3 weeks out, and I thought it was super flexible and easy to use. I had adaptibar but only did about 350 questions on it. My practice scores were around 65% until about 3 weeks out, when they went up to an average of 75-80%. Over a total of 1500 questions on Themis, my average was 69%. Practiced a fair amount of MPTs and essays as well.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby we'rebothmenofthelaw » Wed Apr 24, 2019 9:51 am

Wow, calculator was exactly right for me. Like, exactly. Kinda bums me out that it’s that predictable, but I appreciate the resource.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Jbeans » Wed Apr 24, 2019 10:06 am

Hi Joe

Really appreciate your insights on this forum. I just found out that I passed the NY UBE on my second attempt with an overall 270 and MBE score of 136.9. While I note that these are not great scores, they are quite a jump from my first attempt in July 2018, where my overall was 232 and MBE score was a pathetic 105.4.

I am a foreign attorney and graduated from an Australian University. I worked at a 9-7 job throughout bar prep and took only a week off work to study full-time before my first attempt and two weeks off before my second attempt. I used Kaplan and supplemented with Emanuel's Strategies & Tactics. Given that I had limited time to study (maybe 2-3 hours on weekdays and 16 hours per weekend max), I actually expected to fail again. Up to 3 days before the MBE, my practice score was 58%-60%, and I was desperately hoping the essays and MPT would save me.

Could you please help me convert my UBE score of 270 and MBE score of 136.9? I really want to know the extent to which the MEE/MPT helped me pass the exam.

Thank you so much!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:42 am

willaw1 wrote:Thanks, Joe.
And I just read here that the national MBE mean for F19 is 134.0.
http://www.ncbex.org/news/february-2019-mbe-score/
Is it possible to figure out overall percentage for the entire UBE score too? Or is there not enough data released to figure that out?

As far as prep, I had taken the J15 NY Bar (before they adopted UBE) and my scaled MBE was a 142.2. Both then and this winter I took the full Barbri prep course over, last time 10 weeks, this time 8 weeks, and completed most of their mbe practice questions up until the last couple weeks when I got behind. There was a simulated exam we took halfway thru the course; I scored a raw score of 116/200 on it in 2015 and 117/200 on it in 2019. For this spring within the group of other students who took that diagnostic nationally, that score placed me at the 45th percentile of the group.



NCBE doesn't release the total UBE percentiles. I estimate the Written percentiles by using the MBE percentiles (they are usually always close). You can then further estimate the total UBE percentile by averaging your MBE and written percentiles. Doing this, I would place your 312 as 87th percentile. My guess is this estimation may be off by +/- 3.

Based on your Barbri simulated exam score, you over-performed on the exam. But yours is a great example of the reliability of the MBE. In June 2015, NCBE stated that “the test score reliability of the July 2014 MBE was 0.92, a new high.” NCBE reported that the reliability of the February 2017 MBE was also a .92, so I am assuming it has consistently been .92 since 2014. A reliability of 0.92 for the MBE is very good. This means that 85% of your MBE score can be predicted by your scores on a prior exam. The other 15% is attributable to non-systematic factors such as random applicant characteristics and uniqueness of the questions. The MBE is highly reliable because it essentially tests the same topics with each exam but presented in different ways.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:44 am

sg.cambs wrote:Hi Joe

Thanks for all your insight on this thread. NY results are just out - curious to know my percentiles etc if possible: Overall 345, MBE 164

Thanks!

Sg.Cambs

Congratulations on passing the F19 exam. Based on your scaled MBE score of 164, your estimated raw MBE score was about 157/175 correct (based on my estimate of the MBE scale). This means you answered about 89.7% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 97% percentile for the MBE. This means that 3% of Feb examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 164 (based on national data for the past 7 years).

Based on a total score of 345, your written score was 181, which would have placed you in the 100% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 0% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT).

So what in the world did you do for the written in your studying?

JoeSeperac

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:54 am

Lancair wrote:Hey Joe, your estimate was pretty close: did slightly worse on the MBE, and slightly better on the essays than predicted.

MBE was 168.3 and overall was 338 - can you work out my percentile (also for my girlfriend, who broke the bar exam with her smarts, getting a 173 MBE and 354 overall)?

For those interested in my bar review, I studied with Themis and did pretty much 100%, as well as lightly using Joe's MEE resources (mainly just reading through the sample answers). My overall MCQ practice score was 75%, and my practice exams ranged from 70-80% (full MBE three weeks out was 78%, IIRC). Probably averaged about 4.75/6 on the graded essays.


Congratulations on passing to both of you! Based on your scaled MBE score of 168.3, your estimated raw MBE score was about 163/175 correct (based on my estimate of the MBE scale). This means you answered about 93.1% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 98.6% percentile for the MBE. This means that 1.4% of Feb examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 168.3 (based on national data for the past 7 years).

Based on a total score of 338, your written score was 169.7, which would have placed you in the 99% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 1% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT).

On the MBE, examinees usually score close to their MBE practice scores, especially if they have done a large number of MBE questions in practice. In your case, you answered 76% correct in practice based on practice questions, and I estimate you answered 93% correct on the exam. This is a significant difference of 17%. Therefore you over-performed on the exam.

As to your girlfriend, based on her scaled MBE score of 173, her estimated raw MBE score was about 170/175 correct. This means she answered about 97.1% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places her in the 99.5% percentile for the MBE. Based on a total score of 354, her written score was 181, which would have placed her in the 100% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that almost no examinees nationwide would have scored better than her on the MEE/MPT).

A 355 is the highest UBE score I have ever seen, so she was just 1 point away from that.



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