The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

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Houstonttt

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Houstonttt » Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:27 pm

Mbe !!!!! Are they serious!! Or I am just thick minded !!!
The choices were sooooo confusing!!!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Smiddywesson » Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:10 pm

Nightcrawler wrote:Oh ok, I had no idea that Kaplan would send such an email. What Adaptibar says is that you can expect to score similarly on the MBE compared to your average on their program so I compared it to that. Thank you for posting your score!



If you don't mind me asking, how did your performance on Adaptibar compare to the real thing? My rough guesstimate uses Joe's rule of thumb that 44 questions are more a lot more harder than the released questions. I therefore took the 98 easier questions and multiplied by my Adaptibar average of 91% and the remaining 77 questions and took off 10%, multiplying by 81% This left me with a raw score of 151. A lot of this is guesswork, but a fellow Adaptibar person could give me a clearer picture where I stand.

I'm going to need every point, I had bigtime computer problems on the essays and didn't focus my studies well for two essays.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Smiddywesson » Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:48 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
Great45 wrote:I ended up up using Themis almost exclusively for both MBE and essay prep. I completed about 1,800 questions from the Themis question bank. Towards the end of the course, I was scoring between 65 - 70% correct in mixed practice sets.


Thanks. Interestingly, I have a very simple formula that predicts someones MBE score based on their practice exam scores, their overall % correct and their % correct in the last two weeks. So with your 118/200, 124/200 and 67% correct in last two weeks, I came up with 142.4 lol.


I would be interested in that simple formula Joe. My overall scores over 3800 questions were 72%. My % correct over the final two weeks was 91%, my performance on the practice test was 94% What's my likely performance on test day?

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Nightcrawler » Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:29 pm

Smiddywesson wrote:
Nightcrawler wrote:Oh ok, I had no idea that Kaplan would send such an email. What Adaptibar says is that you can expect to score similarly on the MBE compared to your average on their program so I compared it to that. Thank you for posting your score!



If you don't mind me asking, how did your performance on Adaptibar compare to the real thing? My rough guesstimate uses Joe's rule of thumb that 44 questions are more a lot more harder than the released questions. I therefore took the 98 easier questions and multiplied by my Adaptibar average of 91% and the remaining 77 questions and took off 10%, multiplying by 81% This left me with a raw score of 151. A lot of this is guesswork, but a fellow Adaptibar person could give me a clearer picture where I stand.

I'm going to need every point, I had bigtime computer problems on the essays and didn't focus my studies well for two essays.


Last July I scored a 150+ (CA score advisory) and I was scoring significantly less than you so you should be ok for the MBE. During my last prep cycle I did 1,750 questions @ 82%. I also did all the 400 questions of the Emanuel’s S&T scoring I think in the 70’s right before starting adaptibar.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JakeTappers » Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:46 pm

Nightcrawler wrote:
Smiddywesson wrote:
Nightcrawler wrote:Oh ok, I had no idea that Kaplan would send such an email. What Adaptibar says is that you can expect to score similarly on the MBE compared to your average on their program so I compared it to that. Thank you for posting your score!



If you don't mind me asking, how did your performance on Adaptibar compare to the real thing? My rough guesstimate uses Joe's rule of thumb that 44 questions are more a lot more harder than the released questions. I therefore took the 98 easier questions and multiplied by my Adaptibar average of 91% and the remaining 77 questions and took off 10%, multiplying by 81% This left me with a raw score of 151. A lot of this is guesswork, but a fellow Adaptibar person could give me a clearer picture where I stand.

I'm going to need every point, I had bigtime computer problems on the essays and didn't focus my studies well for two essays.


Last July I scored a 150+ (CA score advisory) and I was scoring significantly less than you so you should be ok for the MBE. During my last prep cycle I did 1,750 questions @ 82%. I also did all the 400 questions of the Emanuel’s S&T scoring I think in the 70’s right before starting adaptibar.


Man. I’m sort of freaking out. Hit 67% on 2000 but 77-82 on all OPEs and 75% last month. But 1) Joe estimated it was going to take 74% to get a 1440. And I counted at least 75 questions on the MBE that I wasn’t sure the answer.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Smiddywesson » Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:39 pm

JakeTappers wrote:
Nightcrawler wrote:
Smiddywesson wrote:
Nightcrawler wrote:Oh ok, I had no idea that Kaplan would send such an email. What Adaptibar says is that you can expect to score similarly on the MBE compared to your average on their program so I compared it to that. Thank you for posting your score!



If you don't mind me asking, how did your performance on Adaptibar compare to the real thing? My rough guesstimate uses Joe's rule of thumb that 44 questions are more a lot more harder than the released questions. I therefore took the 98 easier questions and multiplied by my Adaptibar average of 91% and the remaining 77 questions and took off 10%, multiplying by 81% This left me with a raw score of 151. A lot of this is guesswork, but a fellow Adaptibar person could give me a clearer picture where I stand.

I'm going to need every point, I had bigtime computer problems on the essays and didn't focus my studies well for two essays.


Last July I scored a 150+ (CA score advisory) and I was scoring significantly less than you so you should be ok for the MBE. During my last prep cycle I did 1,750 questions @ 82%. I also did all the 400 questions of the Emanuel’s S&T scoring I think in the 70’s right before starting adaptibar.


Man. I’m sort of freaking out. Hit 67% on 2000 but 77-82 on all OPEs and 75% last month. But 1) Joe estimated it was going to take 74% to get a 1440. And I counted at least 75 questions on the MBE that I wasn’t sure the answer.


That depends on a number of variables. What materials were you using? You can expect to do better in the actual test than you did on Themis, Kaplan, or Barbri. I'm not a big believer in the overall % thing. It's irrelevant what my percentage was last fall, all that counts is my average going into the test. That's like saying someone who can run a 4 minute mile is slow because he was running a 6 minute mile, on average, since last October. That's just illogical. It sounds like to me you are sitting pretty. Also understand that this administration had some God awful pretest questions. At least I hope they were unscored, but they sure didn't match anything I've heard of before, so they are likely to be unscored. My point is your perception of the test isn't reality, you remember all the bad, none of the good. I'm also not phased by your reports of not having an ironclad answer in 75 questions, it's common to feel that way on half the test, so you are ahead of the game in that respect too.

In the end, we are all on edge until we get our grades, regardless of the scores going into test day.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby TheJuryMustDie » Mon Mar 04, 2019 7:31 am

Hi All!

I was wondering if anyone knew the combined percentiles (i.e MBE and Written) needed to pass New York. It does appear there's a great deal of difference between what is needed in February compared to what is needed in July. Any insights will be greatly appreciated.

TheJury.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:02 pm

Smiddywesson wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:
Great45 wrote:I ended up up using Themis almost exclusively for both MBE and essay prep. I completed about 1,800 questions from the Themis question bank. Towards the end of the course, I was scoring between 65 - 70% correct in mixed practice sets.


Thanks. Interestingly, I have a very simple formula that predicts someones MBE score based on their practice exam scores, their overall % correct and their % correct in the last two weeks. So with your 118/200, 124/200 and 67% correct in last two weeks, I came up with 142.4 lol.


I would be interested in that simple formula Joe. My overall scores over 3800 questions were 72%. My % correct over the final two weeks was 91%, my performance on the practice test was 94% What's my likely performance on test day?


Based on your MBE practice scores, I estimate you will average about 81% correct on the exam which would result in a projected MBE scaled score of 166. Please note that this estimate is based on the February 2011 scale which is the last time raw/scaled MBE scores were released and can be off by +/- 10 points. Based on your projected scaled MBE score of 166, this would place you in the 98% percentile for the MBE. This means that 2% of Feb examinees nationwide would do better than you on the MBE based on a scaled MBE score of 166 (based on national data for the past 7 years). The 20 year pass rate for February NY examinees is 46.4%. Since you need to be better than about 53.6% of February examinees to pass the NY exam, if you score better than 98% of examinees on the MBE, I would expect you to pass.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JakeTappers » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:08 pm

I wouldn't mind seeing an estimate either. I hit only 68% overall, but 76% in the last month (not exactly sure about last two weeks, but I assume somewhere in the 76-77% range). I also was between 77 and 81 on all OPEs (but that was without civpro). As posted everywhere, I was taking CA though.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:14 pm

TheJuryMustDie wrote:Hi All!
I was wondering if anyone knew the combined percentiles (i.e MBE and Written) needed to pass New York. It does appear there's a great deal of difference between what is needed in February compared to what is needed in July. Any insights will be greatly appreciated.

TheJury.


I just made you a calculator for this. Previously, all my estimates have been based on the F18 MBE subscores which have been essentially guesstimates. To try to give a more precise estimate, I went back to the most recent February exam that released a complete MBE scale. The following calculator will accurately estimate your MBE Score and Percentile based on this Feb 2011 scale:

https://ubeessays.com/feb-mbe-percentiles/

Please keep in mind that the F19 scale may differ substantially from this F11 scale. For example, the F11 MBE mean was 138.6 while the F18 MBE mean was 132.8, so if the F19 MBE mean is in the 133-135 range, you will probably need a higher percentage correct to arrive at the same MBE scaled score reported by the calculator. However, these are exact scales and exact percentiles (albeit from F11) so you can get a good idea of where you might fall without too much guesstimation.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:25 pm

JakeTappers wrote:I wouldn't mind seeing an estimate either. I hit only 68% overall, but 76% in the last month (not exactly sure about last two weeks, but I assume somewhere in the 76-77% range). I also was between 77 and 81 on all OPEs (but that was without civpro). As posted everywhere, I was taking CA though.

Based on your MBE practice scores, I estimate you will average about 72% correct on the exam which would result in a projected MBE scaled score of 152. Please note that this estimate is based on the February 2011 scale which is the last time raw/scaled MBE scores were released and can be off by +/- 10 points. Based on your projected scaled MBE score of 152, this would place you in the 85% percentile for the MBE. This means that 15% of Feb examinees nationwide would do better than you on the MBE based on a scaled MBE score of 152 (based on national data for the past 7 years). The 20 year pass rate for February CA examinees is 39.3%. Since you need to be better than about 60.7% of February examinees to pass the CA exam, if you score better than 85% of examinees on the MBE, I would expect you to pass. You can play with this calculator to estimate your percentiles:

https://ubeessays.com/feb-mbe-percentiles/

Since you are in CA, put 288 for the passing score and it will give you a somewhat accurate estimate (CA candidates are stronger than the national average, so expect yours to be lower than the national percentiles reported).

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby CaYLaw » Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:05 pm

Often less asked, but what are the average range of passing scores in NY for the overall MEE or per MEE essay?

Thanks Joe!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:48 pm

CaYLaw wrote:Often less asked, but what are the average range of passing scores in NY for the overall MEE or per MEE essay?

Thanks Joe!


In NY, an MEE or MPT scaled score of 52 is generally exactly passing for a Feb exam. This would contribute 13.3 points to your total UBE score (5% of 266). If you had exactly passing scores for all 6 MEE answers, this would contribute 79.8 points to your total UBE score (which is 30% of 266). In theory, the most you could ever get in points on the MEE is 30% of 400, or 120 points (you would have to write 6 model answers). Interestingly, if you answered none of the 6 MEE essays, you would still receive about 35 points towards your total UBE score (meaning you could pass NY with a 170 MBE, above average MPTs and not a word written for any of the essays)

While NCBE releases an MBE mean for every administration, they don't release a written mean, although I expect it to track the MBE mean. For example, although NCBE doesn't release the written percentiles, IL does and they track the MBE percentiles:

Image

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby TheJuryMustDie » Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:07 am

JoeSeperac wrote:
TheJuryMustDie wrote:Hi All!
I was wondering if anyone knew the combined percentiles (i.e MBE and Written) needed to pass New York. It does appear there's a great deal of difference between what is needed in February compared to what is needed in July. Any insights will be greatly appreciated.

TheJury.


I just made you a calculator for this. Previously, all my estimates have been based on the F18 MBE subscores which have been essentially guesstimates. To try to give a more precise estimate, I went back to the most recent February exam that released a complete MBE scale. The following calculator will accurately estimate your MBE Score and Percentile based on this Feb 2011 scale:

https://ubeessays.com/feb-mbe-percentiles/

Please keep in mind that the F19 scale may differ substantially from this F11 scale. For example, the F11 MBE mean was 138.6 while the F18 MBE mean was 132.8, so if the F19 MBE mean is in the 133-135 range, you will probably need a higher percentage correct to arrive at the same MBE scaled score reported by the calculator. However, these are exact scales and exact percentiles (albeit from F11) so you can get a good idea of where you might fall without too much guesstimation.


Thanks for this Joe! From the calculator, it looks like a combined 40th percentile is needed to pass Feb19 then. Is that right? Many thanks!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Smiddywesson » Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:20 am

JoeSeperac wrote:
Smiddywesson wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:
Great45 wrote:I ended up up using Themis almost exclusively for both MBE and essay prep. I completed about 1,800 questions from the Themis question bank. Towards the end of the course, I was scoring between 65 - 70% correct in mixed practice sets.


Thanks. Interestingly, I have a very simple formula that predicts someones MBE score based on their practice exam scores, their overall % correct and their % correct in the last two weeks. So with your 118/200, 124/200 and 67% correct in last two weeks, I came up with 142.4 lol.


I would be interested in that simple formula Joe. My overall scores over 3800 questions were 72%. My % correct over the final two weeks was 91%, my performance on the practice test was 94% What's my likely performance on test day?


Based on your MBE practice scores, I estimate you will average about 81% correct on the exam which would result in a projected MBE scaled score of 166. Please note that this estimate is based on the February 2011 scale which is the last time raw/scaled MBE scores were released and can be off by +/- 10 points. Based on your projected scaled MBE score of 166, this would place you in the 98% percentile for the MBE. This means that 2% of Feb examinees nationwide would do better than you on the MBE based on a scaled MBE score of 166 (based on national data for the past 7 years). The 20 year pass rate for February NY examinees is 46.4%. Since you need to be better than about 53.6% of February examinees to pass the NY exam, if you score better than 98% of examinees on the MBE, I would expect you to pass.


Thanks for the comforting news. I guess it depends on how well I adapted to the broken touchpad and bouncing cursor. The compter really hurt me on the essays, and I could have managed time better than giving the MPT a full two hours. That was not smart. In preparing for a potential retake, I found your website. It would be a perfect fit for me. I completely agree with your methodology, however you are silent regarding the distractors. What would be a good approach to prep for the distractors. I note they are not confined to the percentages listed in the subject matter outline. I remember Mark Albanese mentioning somewhere they are spread uniformly throughout the materials. It looks like a study everything approach to me.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Smiddywesson » Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:02 pm

Smiddywesson wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:
Smiddywesson wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:
Great45 wrote:I ended up up using Themis almost exclusively for both MBE and essay prep. I completed about 1,800 questions from the Themis question bank. Towards the end of the course, I was scoring between 65 - 70% correct in mixed practice sets.


Thanks. Interestingly, I have a very simple formula that predicts someones MBE score based on their practice exam scores, their overall % correct and their % correct in the last two weeks. So with your 118/200, 124/200 and 67% correct in last two weeks, I came up with 142.4 lol.


I would be interested in that simple formula Joe. My overall scores over 3800 questions were 72%. My % correct over the final two weeks was 91%, my performance on the practice test was 94% What's my likely performance on test day?


Based on your MBE practice scores, I estimate you will average about 81% correct on the exam which would result in a projected MBE scaled score of 166. Please note that this estimate is based on the February 2011 scale which is the last time raw/scaled MBE scores were released and can be off by +/- 10 points. Based on your projected scaled MBE score of 166, this would place you in the 98% percentile for the MBE. This means that 2% of Feb examinees nationwide would do better than you on the MBE based on a scaled MBE score of 166 (based on national data for the past 7 years). The 20 year pass rate for February NY examinees is 46.4%. Since you need to be better than about 53.6% of February examinees to pass the NY exam, if you score better than 98% of examinees on the MBE, I would expect you to pass.


Thanks for the comforting news. I guess it depends on how well I adapted to the broken touchpad and bouncing cursor. The compter really hurt me on the essays, and I could have managed time better than giving the MPT a full two hours. That was not smart. In preparing for a potential retake, I found your website. It would be a perfect fit for me. I completely agree with your methodology, however you are silent regarding the distractors. What would be a good approach to prep for the distractors. I note they are not confined to the percentages listed in the subject matter outline. I remember Mark Albanese mentioning somewhere they are spread uniformly throughout the materials. It looks like a study everything approach to me.


Equators, not "distractors." Sheesh, I'm still not myself after the exam.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby John--- » Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:56 pm

Joe: What is the percentage of applicants who fail and pass the NY bar exam because of ~10 points? So how many people pass with a score between 266 and 276 and how many fail with a score between 256 and 266?

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby updown » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:03 pm

Joe - I passed the NY Bar in Feb 2017 with a total score of 292 with an MBE score of 161.2 so my essays and MPTs combined (worth 50% of the exam) must have been 131 which would mean I was a marginal fail on that half of the exam given the pass score is 266.

I just sat the Feb 19 California Bar and my essays and CPT scores combined are definitely really bad. I just struggle really badly with writing under those time constraints. The good news is the MBE went really well again, hopefully at least as well as in New York.

My question is If I did get a 161 scaled in the MBE again what kind of scores would I have needed in the essays and CPT to reach the 1440 mark?

For example, my prediction for my scores in the five essays would be a 55,55,55,50 and 40 with a 65 in the CPT. If this was the case, what overall result would you calculate when combined with a 161 MBE.

Thank you in advance.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:41 am

John--- wrote:Joe: What is the percentage of applicants who fail and pass the NY bar exam because of ~10 points? So how many people pass with a score between 266 and 276 and how many fail with a score between 256 and 266?


Although I don't know for certain if the New York bar exam final scores follow a normal distribution, it stands to reason that they do since the New York bar exam is scaled to the MBE and the MBE follows a fairly normal distribution. For example, following are the national MBE score distributions for 2009:

http://www.ncbex.org/statistics-and-res ... tatistics/

Based on an older NCBE study, I was able to determine that the mean final score for the February 2006 pre-UBE NY bar exam was approximately 657 (which converts to about a 263 for the UBE). see Impact of the Increase in the Passing Score on the New York Bar Examination: February 2006 Bar Administration (June 2007) @ http://www.nybarexam.org/press/nyrep_feb06.pdf

The mean Final Score of Domestic-Educated First-Time Takers on the February 2006 exam was 710.32 (which converts to about a 284 for the UBE). The mean Final Score of all First-Time Takers on the February 2006 exam was 682.5 (which converts to about a 273 for the UBE).

If the F19 exam final scores follow the same distribution pattern as the national MBE scores, and the F06 mean is the same as the F19 mean, then the further away from the mean of 263, the lower the frequency of the score. This means a larger percentage of candidates should score between 256-266 as compared to 266-276. However, if you are a Domestic-Educated First-Time Taker, since their F06 mean was 284, a larger percentage of these examinees will score between 266-276 as compared to 256-266.

To determine whether you are at-risk of failing, enter your information into my UBE Score Estimator:
http://www.seperac.com/zcalc-passcalc.php

If the calculator estimates you to pass by 20+ points and you were at 65% correct or better in overall MBE practice, I would expect you to pass comfortably.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:44 am

TheJuryMustDie wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:
TheJuryMustDie wrote:Hi All!
I was wondering if anyone knew the combined percentiles (i.e MBE and Written) needed to pass New York. It does appear there's a great deal of difference between what is needed in February compared to what is needed in July. Any insights will be greatly appreciated.

TheJury.


I just made you a calculator for this. Previously, all my estimates have been based on the F18 MBE subscores which have been essentially guesstimates. To try to give a more precise estimate, I went back to the most recent February exam that released a complete MBE scale. The following calculator will accurately estimate your MBE Score and Percentile based on this Feb 2011 scale:

https://ubeessays.com/feb-mbe-percentiles/

Please keep in mind that the F19 scale may differ substantially from this F11 scale. For example, the F11 MBE mean was 138.6 while the F18 MBE mean was 132.8, so if the F19 MBE mean is in the 133-135 range, you will probably need a higher percentage correct to arrive at the same MBE scaled score reported by the calculator. However, these are exact scales and exact percentiles (albeit from F11) so you can get a good idea of where you might fall without too much guesstimation.


Thanks for this Joe! From the calculator, it looks like a combined 40th percentile is needed to pass Feb19 then. Is that right? Many thanks!


If your state is a 266 passing score, you only need to be about 33rd percentile for MBE and written. Plug in 60% for both MBE practice scores and you will see what I mean. A combined 40th percentile would be a comfortable pass.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:51 am

updown wrote:Joe - I passed the NY Bar in Feb 2017 with a total score of 292 with an MBE score of 161.2 so my essays and MPTs combined (worth 50% of the exam) must have been 131 which would mean I was a marginal fail on that half of the exam given the pass score is 266.

I just sat the Feb 19 California Bar and my essays and CPT scores combined are definitely really bad. I just struggle really badly with writing under those time constraints. The good news is the MBE went really well again, hopefully at least as well as in New York.

My question is If I did get a 161 scaled in the MBE again what kind of scores would I have needed in the essays and CPT to reach the 1440 mark?

For example, my prediction for my scores in the five essays would be a 55,55,55,50 and 40 with a 65 in the CPT. If this was the case, what overall result would you calculate when combined with a 161 MBE.

Thank you in advance.


Those scores would not be enough to pass CA based on the F18 scale. Take a look at my calculator here:

https://mberules.com/california-bar-exa ... alculator/

If you select F18, it will tell you your exact F18 CA score based on the inputs. If the F19 scale mirrors the F18 scale, you would need 55, 55, 55, 55, 50, 65 and 161 MBE to pass. With a 161 MBE, you would pass without a problem in every other state, but CA is such a crazy state.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby John--- » Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:37 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
John--- wrote:Joe: What is the percentage of applicants who fail and pass the NY bar exam because of ~10 points? So how many people pass with a score between 266 and 276 and how many fail with a score between 256 and 266?


Although I don't know for certain if the New York bar exam final scores follow a normal distribution, it stands to reason that they do since the New York bar exam is scaled to the MBE and the MBE follows a fairly normal distribution. For example, following are the national MBE score distributions for 2009:

http://www.ncbex.org/statistics-and-res ... tatistics/

Based on an older NCBE study, I was able to determine that the mean final score for the February 2006 pre-UBE NY bar exam was approximately 657 (which converts to about a 263 for the UBE). see Impact of the Increase in the Passing Score on the New York Bar Examination: February 2006 Bar Administration (June 2007) @ http://www.nybarexam.org/press/nyrep_feb06.pdf

The mean Final Score of Domestic-Educated First-Time Takers on the February 2006 exam was 710.32 (which converts to about a 284 for the UBE). The mean Final Score of all First-Time Takers on the February 2006 exam was 682.5 (which converts to about a 273 for the UBE).

If the F19 exam final scores follow the same distribution pattern as the national MBE scores, and the F06 mean is the same as the F19 mean, then the further away from the mean of 263, the lower the frequency of the score. This means a larger percentage of candidates should score between 256-266 as compared to 266-276. However, if you are a Domestic-Educated First-Time Taker, since their F06 mean was 284, a larger percentage of these examinees will score between 266-276 as compared to 256-266.

To determine whether you are at-risk of failing, enter your information into my UBE Score Estimator:
http://www.seperac.com/zcalc-passcalc.php

If the calculator estimates you to pass by 20+ points and you were at 65% correct or better in overall MBE practice, I would expect you to pass comfortably.



Thank you very much, Joe.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby masonjarrr » Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:02 pm

updown wrote:Joe - I passed the NY Bar in Feb 2017 with a total score of 292 with an MBE score of 161.2 so my essays and MPTs combined (worth 50% of the exam) must have been 131 which would mean I was a marginal fail on that half of the exam given the pass score is 266.

I just sat the Feb 19 California Bar and my essays and CPT scores combined are definitely really bad. I just struggle really badly with writing under those time constraints. The good news is the MBE went really well again, hopefully at least as well as in New York.

My question is If I did get a 161 scaled in the MBE again what kind of scores would I have needed in the essays and CPT to reach the 1440 mark?

For example, my prediction for my scores in the five essays would be a 55,55,55,50 and 40 with a 65 in the CPT. If this was the case, what overall result would you calculate when combined with a 161 MBE.

Thank you in advance.


40 means you essentially did not attempt the essay, is that true?
Those estimates seem extremely conservative. Some of those 55s will likely be at least 60s. Seems like you're too hard on yourself

updown

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby updown » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:27 pm

masonjarrr wrote:
updown wrote:Joe - I passed the NY Bar in Feb 2017 with a total score of 292 with an MBE score of 161.2 so my essays and MPTs combined (worth 50% of the exam) must have been 131 which would mean I was a marginal fail on that half of the exam given the pass score is 266.

I just sat the Feb 19 California Bar and my essays and CPT scores combined are definitely really bad. I just struggle really badly with writing under those time constraints. The good news is the MBE went really well again, hopefully at least as well as in New York.

My question is If I did get a 161 scaled in the MBE again what kind of scores would I have needed in the essays and CPT to reach the 1440 mark?

For example, my prediction for my scores in the five essays would be a 55,55,55,50 and 40 with a 65 in the CPT. If this was the case, what overall result would you calculate when combined with a 161 MBE.

Thank you in advance.


40 means you essentially did not attempt the essay, is that true?
Those estimates seem extremely conservative. Some of those 55s will likely be at least 60s. Seems like you're too hard on yourself


Maybe. I left myself with 7 minutes for that question at the end of the AM essay session so I just focused on getting a few lines down to show some comprehension of what the essay was about to try get the 40...I just find myself having a major issue getting something passable written within the time constraints...I'm a very slow typist (and handwriter) and just really struggle with the essays.It's certainly possible the scores could be a little better than I predict but I think they are realistic enough, they are my best guess rather than worst case scenario.

Thanks Joe, for your answer above.

John---

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby John--- » Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:27 am

Joe (or anyone else who might know the answer): The maximum scaled score I can enter in your calculator for MEE is a number around 67? And 85 for MPT? https://seperac.com/zcalc-ube-f18.php



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