The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

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diatribe

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby diatribe » Sat Dec 01, 2018 1:19 pm

Hey Joe, would you mind giving me as much of a breakdown as you can? My score advisory says I meet or exceed 150 on the MBE. During Kaplan prep I was at or above 80% in each MBE practice area (scoring 160 on the midterm and 151 on the final) and my practice essays averaged 60s with the occasional 55 or 65.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:42 am

LawSch00lLurker wrote:Hi Joe,

Thanks for all the hard work you put into gathering this data. I took the J18 NY Bar and scored 142.2 on the MBE and a 278 overall. I also scored 127/200 on the Barbri Midterm and 64/100 on the Barbri Refresher. Could you give me a breakdown of my numbers? I am happy that I passed but curious to see where I sit on the curve as well as how much I under performed on the actual exam compared to my practice exams.

Thanks so much! Your work does NOT go unappreciated.


Thanks and congratulations on passing. Based on your scaled MBE score of 142.2, your estimated raw MBE score was about 117/175 correct (based on my estimate of the MBE scale). This means you answered about 66.9% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 49.4% percentile for the MBE. This means that 50.6% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 142.2 (based on July national data).

Based on a total score of 278, this means your written score was 135.8, which would have placed you in the 35.4% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 64.6% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT).

On the MBE, examinees usually score close to their MBE practice scores, especially if they have done a large number of MBE questions in practice. In your case, you answered 62% correct in practice based on your exam practice questions, and I estimate you answered 67% correct on the exam. This is a difference of 5%. Therefore, you over-performed on the exam (probably bolstered by your last 2 weeks of studying).

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:52 am

diatribe wrote:Hey Joe, would you mind giving me as much of a breakdown as you can? My score advisory says I meet or exceed 150 on the MBE. During Kaplan prep I was at or above 80% in each MBE practice area (scoring 160 on the midterm and 151 on the final) and my practice essays averaged 60s with the occasional 55 or 65.


Great scores. Two TLSers (MAwannabeCAatty and Tess) scored 155 on the J18 Kaplan midterm and both ended up with a 170.6 MBE score, so my guess is that you scored 170 or higher on the MBE. Based on a scaled MBE score of 170.6, the estimated raw MBE score is about 157/175 correct (about 90% correct). This would place you in the 97.4% percentile for the MBE.

If you give yourself 60s for the essays/PTs, that would be a final score of 1587 (see https://mberules.com/california-bar-exa ... alculator/)

If you don't mind one quick question, if you had to attribute your MBE score to just one thing, what would that be? I ask this to see if there is any commonality in answers among similarly situated examinees.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby naeba6 » Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:01 pm

Hi Joe,

Would you mind giving me a breakdown of my scores? I took the J18 Colorado bar and scored 152.3 on the MBE and 152.6 on the written (total score was rounded up to 305). Thanks so much! I appreciate your work :)

diatribe

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby diatribe » Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:22 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
diatribe wrote:Hey Joe, would you mind giving me as much of a breakdown as you can? My score advisory says I meet or exceed 150 on the MBE. During Kaplan prep I was at or above 80% in each MBE practice area (scoring 160 on the midterm and 151 on the final) and my practice essays averaged 60s with the occasional 55 or 65.


Great scores. Two TLSers (MAwannabeCAatty and Tess) scored 155 on the J18 Kaplan midterm and both ended up with a 170.6 MBE score, so my guess is that you scored 170 or higher on the MBE. Based on a scaled MBE score of 170.6, the estimated raw MBE score is about 157/175 correct (about 90% correct). This would place you in the 97.4% percentile for the MBE.

If you give yourself 60s for the essays/PTs, that would be a final score of 1587 (see https://mberules.com/california-bar-exa ... alculator/)

If you don't mind one quick question, if you had to attribute your MBE score to just one thing, what would that be? I ask this to see if there is any commonality in answers among similarly situated examinees.


Thanks, Joe! I feel like 170+ is wishful thinking but it's a nice thought considering I likely bombed the essays. I think it'd have to be the high number of MBE questions I practiced. During bar prep I completed Kaplan's 2000+ Qbank. Prior to bar prep I took a MBE prep course my school offered via Themis. I don't remember how many questions the Themis program had, but I completed all of those as well. So my MBE prep was essentially 7 months long and thousands of questions deep

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby inyourhonor07 » Sat Dec 08, 2018 4:03 pm

Hi Joe,

What would you say is the best predictor of MBE success? For example, I have a very high MPRE score and a low LGPA. I used your calculator and received your results by e-mail, but obviously the MPRE predicts me passing by a long shot and LGPA raises a big concern.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:44 pm

diatribe wrote:Thanks, Joe! I feel like 170+ is wishful thinking but it's a nice thought considering I likely bombed the essays. I think it'd have to be the high number of MBE questions I practiced. During bar prep I completed Kaplan's 2000+ Qbank. Prior to bar prep I took a MBE prep course my school offered via Themis. I don't remember how many questions the Themis program had, but I completed all of those as well. So my MBE prep was essentially 7 months long and thousands of questions deep


Thanks for the followup. And trust me when I say you probably scored 170+ on the MBE (In case you ever wanted to take the UBE, you could probably just study the 7 MBE subjects and do fine).

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:00 pm

inyourhonor07 wrote:Hi Joe,
What would you say is the best predictor of MBE success? For example, I have a very high MPRE score and a low LGPA. I used your calculator and received your results by e-mail, but obviously the MPRE predicts me passing by a long shot and LGPA raises a big concern.

The best predictor of MBE success are your MBE practice scores. While there are always outliers, examinees usually score close to their MBE practice scores. For example, for the examinees who failed J18 and filled out my Retaker form, their average in MBE practice was 56% correct while their actual MBE score was about 54% correct. Keep in mind this is an average. For example, one examinee reported answering 40% in practice but scored 59% on the MBE exam. Another examinee reported answering 65% in practice but scored 54% on the MBE exam. However, in general, these scores correlate pretty closely. I find the same is generally true with passers.

So my advice is to take the UBE Score Estimate with a grain of salt, but look at your MBE practice scores about 2-4 weeks before the exam as the final arbiter. If the calculator has you passing by 20 points and you are at 70% correct or better overall in MBE practice, you are in very good territory and the results will likely be on point. However, if you are only 60% correct overall in MBE practice, you need to focus more because your results will likely shade down (making it possibly too close to call). At some point I will probably add current MBE practice scores as a variable in the Estimator, but I want to collect a lot of data first (lots of examinees submit their info, but less than 5% follow up with me to tell me their outcome).

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:12 pm

naeba6 wrote:Hi Joe,

Would you mind giving me a breakdown of my scores? I took the J18 Colorado bar and scored 152.3 on the MBE and 152.6 on the written (total score was rounded up to 305). Thanks so much! I appreciate your work :)


Sorry for the delayed response. Based on your scaled MBE score of 152.3, your estimated raw MBE score was about 131/175 correct (based on my estimate of the MBE scale). This means you answered about 74.9% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 72.5% percentile for the MBE. This means that 27.5% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 152.3 (based on July national data for the past 7 years). Based on a total score of 305, this means your written score was 152.6, which would have placed you in the 73.3% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 26.7% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT).

On the MBE, examinees usually score close to their MBE practice scores, especially if they have done a large number of MBE questions in practice. I tracked your stats from earlier (120 barbri sim and 65 refresher), meaning you answered about 62% correct in practice, but I estimate you answered 75% correct on the exam. This is a difference of 13%. Therefore you over-performed on the exam.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby ismo » Tue Jan 22, 2019 1:32 pm

Hi Joe! not sure if this thread is still active but was wondering where my California July 2018 bar scores put me? Especially wondering what my raw MBE score was and how many more raw MBE'S did I need to pass? (note: usually I do better on the essays, so doing better on the MBE''s caught me off guard, but at least the MBEs are more controllable and objective). Thank you so much in advance!!!!
SCALED MBE: 1400.0000
SCALED WRITTEN: 1360.4560
RAW WRITTEN: 410.0
TOTAL SCALED SCORE: 1380.2280

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:01 am

ismo wrote:Hi Joe! not sure if this thread is still active but was wondering where my California July 2018 bar scores put me? Especially wondering what my raw MBE score was and how many more raw MBE'S did I need to pass? (note: usually I do better on the essays, so doing better on the MBE''s caught me off guard, but at least the MBEs are more controllable and objective). Thank you so much in advance!!!!
SCALED MBE: 1400.0000
SCALED WRITTEN: 1360.4560
RAW WRITTEN: 410.0
TOTAL SCALED SCORE: 1380.2280


While your scaled MBE score was 140, I estimate your total raw MBE score to be 112/175 correct (64% correct)

For this specific exam, you did better than 49.2% of examinees taking the MBE. Based on the national statistics on the MBE, your MBE score of 140 is in the 44.3% percentile for the MBE (based on July exams from 2011-present). This means that over the last 8 July exams, about 55.7% of examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 140.

On the MBE, examinees usually score close to their MBE practice percentage (especially when they have done a large number of representative MBE practice questions). In your case, you answered about 64% correct on the MBE. Accordingly, I estimate that you likely answered about 60%-65% correct overall in your MBE practice (please let me know if this is inaccurate).

You needed to answer 8 more MBE questions correctly (or about 68.6% correct) to score a 1440 on the J18 MBE. Contrast that with needing about 74% correct to score a 1440 on the F18 (and probably F19) MBE.

If your written stays the same, you would need a 1520 on the MBE to pass. This would be about 80% correct for F19.

I created the following calculator to accurately estimate a Written Scaled Score and Total Score for the J18, F18 and J17 CA bar exam administration based on the scores you enter. F19 CA examinees can use the F18 calculator to test various scoring scenarios and estimate their F19 exam performance:
https://mberules.com/california-bar-exa ... alculator/

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby jptx » Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:37 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
ismo wrote:I created the following calculator to accurately estimate a Written Scaled Score and Total Score for the J18, F18 and J17 CA bar exam administration based on the scores you enter. F19 CA examinees can use the F18 calculator to test various scoring scenarios and estimate their F19 exam performance:
https://mberules.com/california-bar-exa ... alculator/


For those who want to see the potential effects of scaling, Change Joe's default PT from 60 to 65, then note that that same total score fails in July 17 and February 18, but passes July 18.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Lancair » Fri Jan 25, 2019 2:56 am

Hi Joe

Thanks for your content in this thread and others, I've enjoyed reading it.

Foreign educated (Australia) sitting the F19 NY bar exam. Your calculator estimates a 266 score.

Studying with Themis. My current stats are 71% correct out of 1353 MBE PQs (all taken closed book), and my average score over the 8 essays graded by Themis is 73%. I've only done one graded MPT and got 100% on that. Do you think I am on track to pass?

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Mon Jan 28, 2019 11:24 am

Lancair wrote:Hi Joe

Thanks for your content in this thread and others, I've enjoyed reading it.

Foreign educated (Australia) sitting the F19 NY bar exam. Your calculator estimates a 266 score.

Studying with Themis. My current stats are 71% correct out of 1353 MBE PQs (all taken closed book), and my average score over the 8 essays graded by Themis is 73%. I've only done one graded MPT and got 100% on that. Do you think I am on track to pass?

Foreign examinees should take the calculator with a grain of salt because there is so little data available on foreign examinees. You are absolutely on track to pass. An examinee who just sent me his score info (domestic T-1) passed J18 with very similar statistics. He told me he did 2,200 MBE practice questions with Themis with an overall 72% correct. He passed with an MBE of 172.5 and UBE of 326. You can shade this down due to the fact you are not a domestic T-1 examinee, but you still appear to be in a very good position to pass comfortably.

Comments from a few other Australian examinees who passed can be read here (search for the word Australia):
https://seperac.com/comments.php

One former subscriber from Australia who passed with an MBE of 175 said “Please feel free to refer any students to me if you think they would benefit from my advice” so please email me directly at joe@seperac.com if you have any questions for him.

FYI, among foreign examinees taking the exam in New York, Australians have the second highest pass rate (Canadians are first). The pass rate for Australian examinees in 2013 was 60.2%. See
http://www.ncbex.org/pdfviewer/?file=%2 ... -bosse.pdf

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Lancair » Mon Jan 28, 2019 7:12 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
Lancair wrote:Hi Joe

Thanks for your content in this thread and others, I've enjoyed reading it.

Foreign educated (Australia) sitting the F19 NY bar exam. Your calculator estimates a 266 score.

Studying with Themis. My current stats are 71% correct out of 1353 MBE PQs (all taken closed book), and my average score over the 8 essays graded by Themis is 73%. I've only done one graded MPT and got 100% on that. Do you think I am on track to pass?

Foreign examinees should take the calculator with a grain of salt because there is so little data available on foreign examinees. You are absolutely on track to pass. An examinee who just sent me his score info (domestic T-1) passed J18 with very similar statistics. He told me he did 2,200 MBE practice questions with Themis with an overall 72% correct. He passed with an MBE of 172.5 and UBE of 326. You can shade this down due to the fact you are not a domestic T-1 examinee, but you still appear to be in a very good position to pass comfortably.

Comments from a few other Australian examinees who passed can be read here (search for the word Australia):
https://seperac.com/comments.php

One former subscriber from Australia who passed with an MBE of 175 said “Please feel free to refer any students to me if you think they would benefit from my advice” so please email me directly at joe@seperac.com if you have any questions for him.

FYI, among foreign examinees taking the exam in New York, Australians have the second highest pass rate (Canadians are first). The pass rate for Australian examinees in 2013 was 60.2%. See
http://www.ncbex.org/pdfviewer/?file=%2 ... -bosse.pdf


Thanks, hope it holds true on game day!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby lola36 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:32 pm

Hi Joe,
Thanks for all your hard work!! I was wondering if you could give me a breakdown of my score on the July 2018 NY bar exam? My total score was 297 and my scaled MBE score was 151.5.
Thank you!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Houstonttt » Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:33 am

I sent you private msg but i thought probably some has some concern
I had to do the exam again.
I am not good writer so working to imporve my mbe as much as I can. Got 133 on July. while on practice Final MBE got 113
now I am getting over 140 on the same test
on mid term July i got like 97/200 this time I got 155
but the probelm is i am with tham company so same questions
should i concern?? how many extra point you think I may get this Feb?? if so :)
thanks

Smiddywesson

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Smiddywesson » Wed Feb 13, 2019 6:43 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
Nightcrawler wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:Without going into greater detail, examinees can expect 56% of the graded MBE questions to range from Very Easy to Average while 44% of the MBE Questions to be Harder than Average to Extremely Difficult. Generally, I regard the released NCBE questions as representing the Very Easy to Average difficulty questions that are on the MBE exam. This is why examinees should use multiple MBE practice sources – otherwise they may not have enough exposure to the Harder than Average to Extremely Difficult questions expected to represent 44% of the MBE. Sorry to be intentionally vague on this, but unfortunately others take my work/research/materials and then try to pass it off as their own.


Thank you. Is that material calculated by you, I assume? Is there any way that it's accessible through your subscription program? Also, can you recommend valid alternative MBE resources other than NCBE released questions?


Yes, the bar examiners also are sometimes intentionally vague when they release exam data, so I have to piece it together. For example, I took all the information in NYBOLE released studies from 2005-2007 and matched it up to determine MBE scores, final scores and pass rates for each of the different demographics reported. They had all this information scattered throughout the reports, but the information is much more meaningful when you put it all in a table. You can look at the chart I made here:
https://www.seperac.com/downloads/Seper ... 0order.pdf

I recommend a mix of MBE questions, but for each examinee it is different. It comes down to how well you are doing on the easy ones versus the hard ones. For example, a 125/175 raw resulted in a 140 MBE on the July 2017 MBE so about a 125/175 is what you probably need to get a 140 on the J18 MBE. Lets say you are 70% correct on the NCBE questions. That means you should get about 70% correct on the Very Easy to Average MBE questions on the exam (the more recent the questions, the more they fall into the Harder than Average category, such as the 2017 MBE Study Aid). So if you only practice on the released NCBE questions, you will not have a lot of exposure to the Harder than Average to Extremely Difficult questions expected to represent 44% of the MBE exam. So if 56% of the 175 graded MBE questions are represented in the NCBE questions you practiced on and you get 70% correct, then you will answer 69 correctly. If 44% of the 175 graded MBE questions are Harder than Average to Extremely Difficult and you get 50% correct, then you will answer 39 of these correctly. This adds up to 108/175, which is a bit short from the 125/175 you want. Again, these are just estimates. I see some examinees only use Adaptibar and get a 160 on the MBE while others get a 120. It really depends on the person, but the safest thing to do is to mix up your MBE practice so you have a better chance of encountering a wide range of question difficulties. I talk about this more in one of my older posts here:
viewtopic.php?f=41&t=285171&p=10287261&hilit=to+obtain+the+rationales+for+why+the+options#p10287261



I suspected as much. The Study Aid questions are shorter but a lot trickier. I scored 85% on both of those 100 question exams, and did about the same over the long run with the rest of the questions. Overall, I did 3450 questions over the last year, and I'm holding steady at an 85% accuracy rate with two weeks left. The source of the questions was Adaptibar. What kind of a performance can I expect in real time? I'm very good with time management and a game player, my question is just how much off the top I can expect in a real situation.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:49 am

lola36 wrote:Hi Joe,
Thanks for all your hard work!! I was wondering if you could give me a breakdown of my score on the July 2018 NY bar exam? My total score was 297 and my scaled MBE score was 151.5.
Thank you!

Congratulations on passing the exam. Based on your scaled MBE score of 151.5, your estimated raw MBE score was about 130/175 correct (based on my estimate of the MBE scale). This means you answered about 74.3% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 70.8% percentile for the MBE. This means that 29.2% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 151.5 (based on July national data for the past 7 years). Based on a total score of 297, this means your written score was 145.5, which would have placed you in the 57% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 43% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT). Congratulations again.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:00 am

Houstonttt wrote:I sent you private msg but i thought probably some has some concern
I had to do the exam again.
I am not good writer so working to imporve my mbe as much as I can. Got 133 on July. while on practice Final MBE got 113
now I am getting over 140 on the same test
on mid term July i got like 97/200 this time I got 155
but the probelm is i am with tham company so same questions
should i concern?? how many extra point you think I may get this Feb?? if so :)
thanks

Based on just those practice scores, you projected J18 MBE was 125 so you actually did a little better than your practice in J18. Your projected F19 MBE is 145. Again, this is based solely on this small sample of practice scores. What review course are you using and what was your J18 UBE score?

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:11 am

Smiddywesson wrote:I suspected as much. The Study Aid questions are shorter but a lot trickier. I scored 85% on both of those 100 question exams, and did about the same over the long run with the rest of the questions. Overall, I did 3450 questions over the last year, and I'm holding steady at an 85% accuracy rate with two weeks left. The source of the questions was Adaptibar. What kind of a performance can I expect in real time? I'm very good with time management and a game player, my question is just how much off the top I can expect in a real situation.

The closest I have to your specific situation is someone who did 3,250 Qs in Adaptibar at 70% overall correct who scored a 149 on the J18 MBE. I would guess you are going to fall within the 155 MBE range. What bar review are you taking?

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:26 am

To anyone curious about their projected exam scores, I made a UBE Score Estimator that will estimate your MBE and UBE score based on the demographic information you enter. This calculator is based on available statistics from NCBE and NYBOLE and should accurately reflect the majority of examinees sitting for the exam.

http://seperac.com/zcalc-passcalc.php

This calculator is reasonably accurate for all demographics, particularly First-Time Domestic candidates. For example, if the calculator has you passing by 20+ points and you are at 70% correct or better overall in MBE practice, you are in very good territory and the results will likely be on point. However, if you are only 60% correct overall in MBE practice, you need to focus more on the MBE because your results will likely shade down (making it possibly too close to call).

Houstonttt

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Houstonttt » Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:29 am

JoeSeperac wrote:
Houstonttt wrote:I sent you private msg but i thought probably some has some concern
I had to do the exam again.
I am not good writer so working to imporve my mbe as much as I can. Got 133 on July. while on practice Final MBE got 113
now I am getting over 140 on the same test
on mid term July i got like 97/200 this time I got 155
but the probelm is i am with tham company so same questions
should i concern?? how many extra point you think I may get this Feb?? if so :)
thanks

Based on just those practice scores, you projected J18 MBE was 125 so you actually did a little better than your practice in J18. Your projected F19 MBE is 145. Again, this is based solely on this small sample of practice scores. What review course are you using and what was your J18 UBE score?

Thanks for your responde, I am doing Texas(not UBE yet) I am now self studing but had a free Kaplan re enroll so just used the mbe, I think was very helpfulon the game day.. but still was not enough to pass.. Thnaks again :) if you need my informal review for any statics, please let me know Will be happy to do so .. Thanks again



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