The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

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Lwoodz

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Lwoodz » Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:59 pm

Hi Joe,

Can you calculate my score: Overall 146 and MBE 179.5?

THANKS!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Houstonttt » Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:42 pm

hi, Joe what is the email address.??

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:14 pm

Lwoodz wrote:Hi Joe,

Can you calculate my score: Overall 146 and MBE 179.5?

THANKS!


EncyclopediaOrange also scored a 179.5 in J18. You two are the highest MBE scores I have ever seen. Based on your scaled MBE score of 179.5, your estimated raw MBE score was about 170/175 correct (based on my estimate of the MBE scale). This means you answered about 97.1% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 99.8% percentile for the MBE. This means that 0.2% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 179.5 (based on July national data for the past 7 years).

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:17 pm

Electricella wrote:Happy to report that the estimator erred, and I passed.
lol
:) 8) :wink:
Electricella wrote:Thanks. Just did the estimator, and it showed I probably failed :oops:
So much for comforting myself)))

JoeSeperac wrote:If you are taking the exam in a non-UBE state, just convert your score to the expected UBE score (e.g. Texas 675/1000*400=270) and use that estimate. Most of the studies that I use are based on NY examinees, but I find that the data carries over to examinees from other states.

https://seperac.com/zcalc-passcalc.php

If you failed the exam and would like to see a score calculator for your state (AL, AR, CO, MA, etc), just send me your scores (or post them here) and I can make one. The score calculators are useful because you can see exactly how many points each answer contributed to your final score.


I am glad too. I hope to improve it with each iteration after I receive follow-ups on the results.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Lwoodz » Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:19 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
Lwoodz wrote:Hi Joe,

Can you calculate my score: Overall 146 and MBE 179.5?

THANKS!


EncyclopediaOrange also scored a 179.5 in J18. You two are the highest MBE scores I have ever seen. Based on your scaled MBE score of 179.5, your estimated raw MBE score was about 170/175 correct (based on my estimate of the MBE scale). This means you answered about 97.1% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 99.8% percentile for the MBE. This means that 0.2% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 179.5 (based on July national data for the past 7 years).



Thanks! Also just realized I put overall score 146. Jesus, I'm losing it. It was 346. I had taken your pass predictor and it had estimated 314 overall and 159 MBE, so I'm pretty happy with the results!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:19 pm

Houstonttt wrote:hi, Joe what is the email address.??


joe @ seperac.com

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:22 pm

mysojuli wrote:Would the " JoeSeperac" method work for taking the Georgia Bar?


What were your scores? If I can get some scores from a few GA examines, I can probably make a GA bar score calculator. I'm almost finished with new Hampshire if I can pick up a few more scores.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:24 pm

DK134 wrote:Hello Joe!

Thank you for the great job you do. I only recently discovered this forum, but I am impressed by the hard work you put in and your kindness. From reading your post, I have a general idea of my rankings, but I want to share my score with you for your records.

I am a foreign-educated first time taker. I got 324 in total and 166.8 in MBE. I studied only with Barbri and did all the assignments. I got 142 in the MBE simulation. I also memorized the Barbri key cards, which helped me a lot with the essays.


Sorry for the delayed follow up. Based on your scaled MBE score of 166.8, your estimated raw MBE score was about 152/175 correct (based on my estimate of the MBE scale). This means you answered about 86.9% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 94.6% percentile for the MBE. This means that 5.4% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 166.8 (based on July national data for the past 7 years). Based on a total score of 324, this means your written score was 157.2, which would have placed you in the 81.9% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 18.1% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT). That's a very solid MBE score for a foreign examinee. Based on the Barbri Sim score, I would have projected a 150 MBE so you out-performed.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:28 pm

Great45 wrote:Hey Joe! Thank you for all the information you provide on this site! Can you possibly calculate my numbers?

My total UBE score was 282. I scored 142.2 on the MBE. Thank you!


Congratulations on passing the J18 exam. Based on your scaled MBE score of 142.2, your estimated raw MBE score was about 117/175 correct (based on my estimate of the MBE scale). This means you answered about 66.9% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 49.4% percentile for the MBE. This means that 50.6% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 142.2 (based on July national data for the past 7 years).

Based on a total score of 282, this means your written score was 139.8, which would have placed you in the 43.9% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 56.1% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT).

On the MBE, examinees usually score close to their MBE practice scores, especially if they have done a large number of MBE questions in practice. How many questions did you answer in practice, from what sources (e.g. Barbri, Kaplan, Adaptibar, NCBE) and what was your overall % correct?

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:33 pm

diatribe wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:
Electricella wrote:Hi Joe,

I am not sure I understand how to use the calculator for non-UBE states. For instance, why is Texas 675/1000*400 and how would I know which numbers to input for other states? (Cali here)


First, take the estimate with a grain of salt. It is based on a couple NYBOLE and NCBE studies and then I adjust it as I collect data from examinees. However, I find that the demographic estimates usually carry over to other states so you can probably receive a fair estimate of your odds of passing CA:

https://seperac.com/zcalc-passcalc.php

If you choose California from the choice list, you will see 288 as the passing score. This is the 1440/2000 CA passing score converted to the UBE 400 scale. So if you receive an estimate of 20 points or higher than 288 (e.g. 320), there is statistically a good chance you will pass CA.

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mysojuli

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby mysojuli » Thu Nov 01, 2018 6:37 am

JoeSeperac wrote:
mysojuli wrote:Would the " JoeSeperac" method work for taking the Georgia Bar?


What were your scores? If I can get some scores from a few GA examines, I can probably make a GA bar score calculator. I'm almost finished with new Hampshire if I can pick up a few more scores.


I actually ment like, if I buy the subscription package and study using your Master Outline and prioritized MBE rules, will I get the same success as those who are in a ube state, since it appears your package is mostly for those in ube states.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby mo_brien » Thu Nov 01, 2018 11:10 am

Hi Joe,

I am yet another requester of your calculations for my scores!

My total UBE score was 304, and my scaled MBE score was 146.

Thanks!
Last edited by mo_brien on Thu Nov 01, 2018 11:13 am, edited 1 time in total.

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BasilHallward

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby BasilHallward » Thu Nov 01, 2018 11:11 am

Hey Joe,

My MBE was 155 in Texas. Thanks!

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Electricella

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Electricella » Thu Nov 01, 2018 1:53 pm

Thank you. I'm not sure if you need data for Texas, but I'll happily provide it.

JoeSeperac wrote:
Electricella wrote:Happy to report that the estimator erred, and I passed.
lol
:) 8) :wink:

JoeSeperac wrote:I am glad too. I hope to improve it with each iteration after I receive follow-ups on the results.


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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby RedPonies2018 » Thu Nov 01, 2018 3:19 pm

Joe-

149.9 MBE, Texas

HopingIPass2929

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby HopingIPass2929 » Thu Nov 01, 2018 4:02 pm

Hey Joe! Thank you for all the information you provide on this site! Can you possibly calculate my numbers?

My total UBE score was 347. I scored 164.1 on the MBE and 182.9 on the MEE/MPT. Thank you!

This was for the NY UBE

whixer

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby whixer » Thu Nov 01, 2018 6:49 pm

Hey Joe,

Could you do mine for J18? Total 312 and MBE 153.1.

I was foreign educated so let me know if you want some stats or info. Thanks!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Great45 » Sun Nov 04, 2018 9:34 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
Great45 wrote:Hey Joe! Thank you for all the information you provide on this site! Can you possibly calculate my numbers?

My total UBE score was 282. I scored 142.2 on the MBE. Thank you!


Congratulations on passing the J18 exam. Based on your scaled MBE score of 142.2, your estimated raw MBE score was about 117/175 correct (based on my estimate of the MBE scale). This means you answered about 66.9% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 49.4% percentile for the MBE. This means that 50.6% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 142.2 (based on July national data for the past 7 years).

Based on a total score of 282, this means your written score was 139.8, which would have placed you in the 43.9% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 56.1% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT).

On the MBE, examinees usually score close to their MBE practice scores, especially if they have done a large number of MBE questions in practice. How many questions did you answer in practice, from what sources (e.g. Barbri, Kaplan, Adaptibar, NCBE) and what was your overall % correct?


I ended up up using Themis almost exclusively for both MBE and essay prep. I completed about 1,800 questions from the Themis question bank. Towards the end of the course, I was scoring between 65 - 70% correct in mixed practice sets.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Sun Nov 04, 2018 9:47 pm

mo_brien wrote:Hi Joe,

I am yet another requester of your calculations for my scores!

My total UBE score was 304, and my scaled MBE score was 146.

Thanks!


Sorry for the delayed follow up and congratulations on passing the J18 exam. Based on your scaled MBE score of 146, your estimated raw MBE score was about 122/175 correct (based on my estimate of the MBE scale). This means you answered about 69.7% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 58.2% percentile for the MBE. This means that 41.8% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 146 (based on July national data for the past 7 years).

Based on a total score of 304, this means your written score was 158, which would have placed you in the 83.2% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 16.8% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT). Good job!

I am going to guess you did less than 1,000 MBE questions in practice. Let me know.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Sun Nov 04, 2018 9:48 pm

BasilHallward wrote:Hey Joe,

My MBE was 155 in Texas. Thanks!


Congratulations on passing the J18 exam. Based on your scaled MBE score of 155, your estimated raw MBE score was about 135/175 correct. This means you answered about 77.1% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 78.2% percentile for the MBE. This means that 21.8% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 155 (based on July national data for the past 7 years).

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Sun Nov 04, 2018 9:51 pm

[quote="Electricella"]Thank you. I'm not sure if you need data for Texas, but I'll happily provide it.

If you email me at joe @ seperac.com with your MBE and total score, I will update your submission from the UBE Estimator form. Once I get another batch of scores I tweak the calculator. Thanks!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Sun Nov 04, 2018 9:53 pm

RedPonies2018 wrote:Joe-

149.9 MBE, Texas


Based on your scaled MBE score of 149.9, your estimated raw MBE score was about 128/175 correct (based on my estimate of the MBE scale). This means you answered about 73.1% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 67.4% percentile for the MBE. This means that 32.6% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 149.9 (based on July national data for the past 7 years). On the MBE, examinees usually score close to their MBE practice scores, especially if they have done a large number of MBE questions in practice. How many questions did you answer in practice, from what sources (e.g. Barbri, Kaplan, Adaptibar, NCBE) and what was your overall % correct?

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Sun Nov 04, 2018 9:55 pm

HopingIPass2929 wrote:Hey Joe! Thank you for all the information you provide on this site! Can you possibly calculate my numbers?

My total UBE score was 347. I scored 164.1 on the MBE and 182.9 on the MEE/MPT. Thank you!

This was for the NY UBE


Great scores! Based on your scaled MBE score of 164.1, your estimated raw MBE score was about 148/175 correct (based on my estimate of the MBE scale). This means you answered about 84.6% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 92% percentile for the MBE. This means that 8% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 164.1 (based on July national data for the past 7 years).

Based on a total score of 347, this means your written score was 182.9, which would have placed you in the 99.9% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 0.1% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT).

If you don't mind one quick question, if you had to attribute your MEE/MPT score to just one thing, what would that be? I ask this to see if there is any commonality in answers among similarly situated examinees.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Sun Nov 04, 2018 9:57 pm

whixer wrote:Hey Joe,

Could you do mine for J18? Total 312 and MBE 153.1.

I was foreign educated so let me know if you want some stats or info. Thanks!


Congratulations on passing and those were very good scores for being foreign educated. Based on your scaled MBE score of 153.1, your estimated raw MBE score was about 133/175 correct (based on my estimate of the MBE scale). This means you answered about 76% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 74.2% percentile for the MBE. This means that 25.8% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 153.1 (based on July national data for the past 7 years).

Based on a total score of 318, this means your written score was 164.9, which would have placed you in the 93% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 7% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT).

If you had to attribute your passing to just one thing, what would that be?

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Sun Nov 04, 2018 10:01 pm

Great45 wrote:I ended up up using Themis almost exclusively for both MBE and essay prep. I completed about 1,800 questions from the Themis question bank. Towards the end of the course, I was scoring between 65 - 70% correct in mixed practice sets.


Thanks. Interestingly, I have a very simple formula that predicts someones MBE score based on their practice exam scores, their overall % correct and their % correct in the last two weeks. So with your 118/200, 124/200 and 67% correct in last two weeks, I came up with 142.4 lol.



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