The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

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lawschool11111111

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby lawschool11111111 » Tue May 08, 2018 6:09 pm

Nightcrawler wrote:Oh ok, I had no idea that Kaplan would send such an email. What Adaptibar says is that you can expect to score similarly on the MBE compared to your average on their program so I compared it to that. Thank you for posting your score!


I did not supplement Adaptibar with Kaplan Bar Prep for CA July 2017, but I did enroll in Adaptibar in preparation for CA Feb 2018. I believe I was in the range of 69-71% after 1500 questions. My timing was pretty on point (did feel a little more pressed for the time on the actual MBE however).

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Nightcrawler » Tue May 08, 2018 6:26 pm

lawschool11111111 wrote:
Nightcrawler wrote:Oh ok, I had no idea that Kaplan would send such an email. What Adaptibar says is that you can expect to score similarly on the MBE compared to your average on their program so I compared it to that. Thank you for posting your score!


I did not supplement Adaptibar with Kaplan Bar Prep for CA July 2017, but I did enroll in Adaptibar in preparation for CA Feb 2018. I believe I was in the range of 69-71% after 1500 questions. My timing was pretty on point (did feel a little more pressed for the time on the actual MBE however).


Same boat for Feb. I was scoring aroung 70% with 1700 questions. It will be interesting to compare our results or, even better, we won't be able to see our MBE score ever again.

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jrstephens1991

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby jrstephens1991 » Tue May 08, 2018 6:48 pm

bluegreen wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:
bluegreen wrote:Are you able to provide similar feedback for Texas scores? Sorry if you mentioned this already.


If you tell me your MBE and total score, I can convert your total score to UBE and give you some UBE stats although the essay estimation will probably be pretty off, especially since the MBE in TX is 40% instead of 50%. If 50 or so F18 TX failers send me their scores, I can figure out the raw essay scores for the 12 essays and make a calculator. I just need the data.

By the way, in examining the average pass rates in Texas over the past 20 years of reported information, the February Overall Pass Rate is 65.1% (16,265 Overall Passers/24,997 Overall Takers from 1995-2016). In F18 it was 45%. I expect bar exam pass rates to continue to decline until at least 2019. Bar exam pass rates are tied to the MBE (e.g. if the MBE average for an administration goes up, the pass rates almost always go up). MBE scores are correlated with LSAT scores. Thus, I use the 25th Percentile LSAT and 75th Percentile LSAT as a barometer for pass rates. If the Average LSAT for a class of matriculants drops as compared to the prior class, I similarly expect their bar exam pass rates to drop as compared to the prior class (the raw data can be viewed here: http://www.abarequireddisclosures.org). The 2013 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who took the bar exam in 2016) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 153.6 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 159.5. The 2014 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who took the bar exam in 2017) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 153.2 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 159.3. The 2015 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who take the bar exam in 2018) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 153.1 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 159.1 (even lower). The 2016 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who take the bar exam in 2019) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 151.2 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 157.2 (even lower). Thus, because the Full-Time Law School Matriculants are becoming statistically less capable with each passing year, it is reasonable to presume that the July bar pass rates will be lower each year.


Useful info, thank you. Yeah the F18 pass rate was quite low. My scores weren't great but I passed. MBE 138.7, final score 689.

Did you take Barbri? If so, may I ask what your midterm and refresher score was?

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Tue May 08, 2018 9:38 pm

lawschool11111111 wrote:I am writing to gain some insight as to why you think there was a significant drop in my MBE score (from being on track to pass during Bar Prep to getting a 131.6), and whether you have heard of spoken with applicants who have had similar experience as me?

I guess if anyone knows why I under-performed it should be me...but I figure you might still have some valuable insight? My guess is that I severely under-performed on the MBE because I stopped doing practice questions in the weeks leading up to the exam and lost momentum + I was mentally unprepared going into day 2 of the MBE as I was almost certain that I had failed after day 1.

Thanks!


I'm surprised too, but it happens. For example, for J17, for the 51 examinees who failed and sent me their scores and told me their practice scores, the average difference between Overall MBE practice percentage and MBE exam percentage was -1%. These examinees were averaging 56% correct in MBE practice and 55% on the exam. However, the maximum positive difference was 18% (examinee told me he averaged 40% in practice but he averaged 58% on the MBE) while the maximum negative difference was -25% (examinee told me he averaged 70% in practice but he averaged 45% on the MBE). Demographically, are you more towards T3 than T1? Often, T1 grads outperform their practice percentages while lower tiers are less likely to.

You probably should have done MBE questions until a week before the exam or you should have kept notes of your MBE mistakes to read every day and refresh your memory. According to NCBE, “ … [t]ests are a powerful motivator, and testing time is not a waste of instructional time if the tests are focused on important concepts. Likewise, studying for a test is a good use of learning time if the tests are testing important concepts. Testing early and often is important to provide guidance to students about whether they are on track or whether they need to study more in order to succeed in the course. … “

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Tue May 08, 2018 9:48 pm

jrstephens1991 wrote:Did you take Barbri? If so, may I ask what your midterm and refresher score was?


In regards to BARBRI simulated exam scores, a thread on TLS three years ago resulted in a spreadsheet that compared practice scores to final MBE scores (and final outcomes). The spreadsheet is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... li=1#gid=0

I took the data from the spreadsheet an sorted it by BARBRI PT raw score:
http://seperac.com/pdf/BARBRI%20PT%20Sc ... %20TLS.pdf

Of the 77 examinees who took BARBRI in July 2015 and reported their exact PT scores, 75 passed the exam, including all those with a 113 raw or higher.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby bluegreen » Wed May 09, 2018 5:32 am

jrstephens1991 wrote:
bluegreen wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:
bluegreen wrote:Are you able to provide similar feedback for Texas scores? Sorry if you mentioned this already.


If you tell me your MBE and total score, I can convert your total score to UBE and give you some UBE stats although the essay estimation will probably be pretty off, especially since the MBE in TX is 40% instead of 50%. If 50 or so F18 TX failers send me their scores, I can figure out the raw essay scores for the 12 essays and make a calculator. I just need the data.

By the way, in examining the average pass rates in Texas over the past 20 years of reported information, the February Overall Pass Rate is 65.1% (16,265 Overall Passers/24,997 Overall Takers from 1995-2016). In F18 it was 45%. I expect bar exam pass rates to continue to decline until at least 2019. Bar exam pass rates are tied to the MBE (e.g. if the MBE average for an administration goes up, the pass rates almost always go up). MBE scores are correlated with LSAT scores. Thus, I use the 25th Percentile LSAT and 75th Percentile LSAT as a barometer for pass rates. If the Average LSAT for a class of matriculants drops as compared to the prior class, I similarly expect their bar exam pass rates to drop as compared to the prior class (the raw data can be viewed here: http://www.abarequireddisclosures.org). The 2013 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who took the bar exam in 2016) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 153.6 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 159.5. The 2014 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who took the bar exam in 2017) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 153.2 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 159.3. The 2015 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who take the bar exam in 2018) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 153.1 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 159.1 (even lower). The 2016 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who take the bar exam in 2019) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 151.2 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 157.2 (even lower). Thus, because the Full-Time Law School Matriculants are becoming statistically less capable with each passing year, it is reasonable to presume that the July bar pass rates will be lower each year.


Useful info, thank you. Yeah the F18 pass rate was quite low. My scores weren't great but I passed. MBE 138.7, final score 689.

Did you take Barbri? If so, may I ask what your midterm and refresher score was?


I should add I was a first time taker. Yeah I did Barbri and my midterm was a 112 (I was behind on a couple of the subject areas though so had to guess on those questions).

I never did the refresher, didn’t have time. Honestly, what helped me on the MBE the most—as a person who probably didn’t hit more than 500-600 practice questions total—was reviewing answer choice explanations for every question I got right (less time spent) and wrong (more time spent). I made outlines out of the rules I kept missing in each area and reviewed those outlines periodically. The other thing that helped me was the post-midterm lectures - I have rarely seen them mentioned on these boards for those who did Barbri, but they literally went through every question in the midterm and analyzed each answer choice step by step. They also gave tips and tricks on what answer choices to almost always avoid, rule refreshers etc. I went through these in the 2 weeks leading up to the exam.

I did buy the Emmanuel Strategies book but probably got through 20% of it. It was helpful to see those questions though, given Barbri questions didn’t feel similar enough to real ones. I definitely felt the MBE was strange overall - I kept thinking every other question was a sample question because of the bizarre nature of many of the questions. I was between two answer choices on seemingly a majority of the questions.

Again, my scores are nothing to write home about but they were enough to help me pass the first time - I generally hated Barbri but it somehow helped me.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby jrstephens1991 » Wed May 09, 2018 6:40 am

bluegreen wrote:
jrstephens1991 wrote:
bluegreen wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:
bluegreen wrote:Are you able to provide similar feedback for Texas scores? Sorry if you mentioned this already.


If you tell me your MBE and total score, I can convert your total score to UBE and give you some UBE stats although the essay estimation will probably be pretty off, especially since the MBE in TX is 40% instead of 50%. If 50 or so F18 TX failers send me their scores, I can figure out the raw essay scores for the 12 essays and make a calculator. I just need the data.

By the way, in examining the average pass rates in Texas over the past 20 years of reported information, the February Overall Pass Rate is 65.1% (16,265 Overall Passers/24,997 Overall Takers from 1995-2016). In F18 it was 45%. I expect bar exam pass rates to continue to decline until at least 2019. Bar exam pass rates are tied to the MBE (e.g. if the MBE average for an administration goes up, the pass rates almost always go up). MBE scores are correlated with LSAT scores. Thus, I use the 25th Percentile LSAT and 75th Percentile LSAT as a barometer for pass rates. If the Average LSAT for a class of matriculants drops as compared to the prior class, I similarly expect their bar exam pass rates to drop as compared to the prior class (the raw data can be viewed here: http://www.abarequireddisclosures.org). The 2013 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who took the bar exam in 2016) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 153.6 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 159.5. The 2014 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who took the bar exam in 2017) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 153.2 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 159.3. The 2015 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who take the bar exam in 2018) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 153.1 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 159.1 (even lower). The 2016 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who take the bar exam in 2019) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 151.2 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 157.2 (even lower). Thus, because the Full-Time Law School Matriculants are becoming statistically less capable with each passing year, it is reasonable to presume that the July bar pass rates will be lower each year.


Useful info, thank you. Yeah the F18 pass rate was quite low. My scores weren't great but I passed. MBE 138.7, final score 689.

Did you take Barbri? If so, may I ask what your midterm and refresher score was?


I should add I was a first time taker. Yeah I did Barbri and my midterm was a 112 (I was behind on a couple of the subject areas though so had to guess on those questions).

I never did the refresher, didn’t have time. Honestly, what helped me on the MBE the most—as a person who probably didn’t hit more than 500-600 practice questions total—was reviewing answer choice explanations for every question I got right (less time spent) and wrong (more time spent). I made outlines out of the rules I kept missing in each area and reviewed those outlines periodically. The other thing that helped me was the post-midterm lectures - I have rarely seen them mentioned on these boards for those who did Barbri, but they literally went through every question in the midterm and analyzed each answer choice step by step. They also gave tips and tricks on what answer choices to almost always avoid, rule refreshers etc. I went through these in the 2 weeks leading up to the exam.

I did buy the Emmanuel Strategies book but probably got through 20% of it. It was helpful to see those questions though, given Barbri questions didn’t feel similar enough to real ones. I definitely felt the MBE was strange overall - I kept thinking every other question was a sample question because of the bizarre nature of many of the questions. I was between two answer choices on seemingly a majority of the questions.

Again, my scores are nothing to write home about but they were enough to help me pass the first time - I generally hated Barbri but it somehow helped me.

All that matters is you passed! :)

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby Nightcrawler » Wed May 09, 2018 4:31 pm

Joe! What do you think of the One-Timers calculator? I wonder which scale they use...

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Thu May 10, 2018 10:33 am

Nightcrawler wrote:Joe! What do you think of the One-Timers calculator? I wonder which scale they use...


The MBE portion looks like the J17 scale but the essay portion I can't say until I collect more CA scores and make a calculator. The problem is that I need a lot of scores to determine the MBE and essay scales, so it takes a while. So if more CA examinees send me their J17/F18 CA scores, I can figure it out and also give a breakdown of the MBE subscores:
https://seperac.com/bar/subscoreform-CA.php

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby unlvcrjchick » Sat May 12, 2018 4:17 am

Hi Joe,

I’m curious if you could calculate my numbers from the July 2017 UBE? I scored a 156.3 on the MBE and a 149.7 on the MEE, for a total score of 306.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby jrstephens1991 » Sat May 12, 2018 8:42 am

unlvcrjchick wrote:Hi Joe,

I’m curious if you could calculate my numbers from the July 2017 UBE? I scored a 156.3 on the MBE and a 149.7 on the MEE, for a total score of 306.

Did you take Barbri? If so, can I ask what you scored on the midterm and refresher?

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Sun May 13, 2018 12:56 pm

unlvcrjchick wrote:Hi Joe,

I’m curious if you could calculate my numbers from the July 2017 UBE? I scored a 156.3 on the MBE and a 149.7 on the MEE, for a total score of 306.


Based on your scaled J17 MBE score of 156.3, your estimated raw MBE score was about 133/175 correct. This is based on the 2013 New York MBE raw/scaled conversion (which is the most recent time a July MBE raw/scaled conversion was released by a state). This means you answered about 76% of the graded MBE questions correctly. Based on the J16 national statistics on the MBE (2017 statistics were just released but I haven't looked at them yet), this places you in the 82.4% percentile for the MBE. This means that about 17.6% of examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 156.3. Based on a total score of 306, this means your written score was 149.7. Assuming that the MEE/MPT percentiles follow the national MBE statistics, scoring a 149.7 Scaled MEE/MPT score would have placed you in the 70.8% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 29.2% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT). Very solid scores. My guess is you could sit for any exam in any state (including CA) and probably pass on your first attempt.

If you don't mind, can you briefly explain how you studied for the MBE (how long, what percentage of your overall study time, what questions you used, how many did you answer overall, and your overall % correct). I ask this to see if there is any commonality in study routines (such as # of practice questions).

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby unlvcrjchick » Sun May 13, 2018 8:39 pm

jrstephens1991 wrote:
unlvcrjchick wrote:Hi Joe,

I’m curious if you could calculate my numbers from the July 2017 UBE? I scored a 156.3 on the MBE and a 149.7 on the MEE, for a total score of 306.

Did you take Barbri? If so, can I ask what you scored on the midterm and refresher?


Hi there,

I took Kaplan last summer and BarBri for the Nevada exam in 2008 (also passed).

I don’t recall what I scored on the midterm but on the final MBE, I scored a raw 130.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby unlvcrjchick » Sun May 13, 2018 8:56 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
unlvcrjchick wrote:Hi Joe,

I’m curious if you could calculate my numbers from the July 2017 UBE? I scored a 156.3 on the MBE and a 149.7 on the MEE, for a total score of 306.


Based on your scaled J17 MBE score of 156.3, your estimated raw MBE score was about 133/175 correct. This is based on the 2013 New York MBE raw/scaled conversion (which is the most recent time a July MBE raw/scaled conversion was released by a state). This means you answered about 76% of the graded MBE questions correctly. Based on the J16 national statistics on the MBE (2017 statistics were just released but I haven't looked at them yet), this places you in the 82.4% percentile for the MBE. This means that about 17.6% of examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 156.3. Based on a total score of 306, this means your written score was 149.7. Assuming that the MEE/MPT percentiles follow the national MBE statistics, scoring a 149.7 Scaled MEE/MPT score would have placed you in the 70.8% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 29.2% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT). Very solid scores. My guess is you could sit for any exam in any state (including CA) and probably pass on your first attempt.

If you don't mind, can you briefly explain how you studied for the MBE (how long, what percentage of your overall study time, what questions you used, how many did you answer overall, and your overall % correct). I ask this to see if there is any commonality in study routines (such as # of practice questions).


Fascinating stuff: thanks for taking the time, Joe!

To answer your questions to the best of my ability, I used Kaplan and Critical Pass, but I can’t recall what my overall % correct was. However, I scored a raw score of 130 on Kaplan’s MBE final, so that’s pretty close to what I got on the real thing based on your numbers. I also seem to recall that I was maybe scoring anywhere between 65-80% correct towards the end of my bar prep.

To go into more detail about my study plan: because I worked full time practicing law in Nevada (about 60-70 hours per week, and in a new job at that time), and because I knew my study time would be limited, I started studying by doing MBE questions really early. Starting in mid-February 2017, I did approximately 10-20 MBE questions most days of the week. I did this for most of my bar study, eventually increasing that to 30-50 per day leading up to the first day of the exam.

Also, because I knew the MBE was worth half of my score whereas with Nevada it was worth only 30%, I spent probably 70-80% of my study time doing the MBE. If I had to guesstimate, I probably did 2,500-3,000 MBE questions, and studied for the bar approximately 20-25 hours per week.

The funny thing to me is, I spent more time studying for the MBE this last go around than I did back in 2008, and yet my score was practically the same: I scored a 156.6 in Nevada vs. 156.3 in Utah. I wonder if part of this is due to the increase in experimental questions from 10 to 25, and thus, my score would have been higher? It’s beyond my pay grade to figure that out: if I were good with numbers, I wouldn’t have gone to law school. lol

It’s nice to know that the numbers reflect that I could pass the first time elsewhere. I may decide to take CA next but that one is a beast and it’s very intimidating. Also, this last time taking the bar felt more difficult than Nevada’s, and Nevada is known for having one of the most difficult exams in the country. I think that was because retaking the exam after practicing for 9 years forced me to write like a law graduate instead of a practicing attorney. And yes, writing for the bar exam is not how most attorneys write in the real world.

I hope that answers your questions.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby JoeSeperac » Tue May 15, 2018 12:38 am

unlvcrjchick wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:
unlvcrjchick wrote:Hi Joe,

I’m curious if you could calculate my numbers from the July 2017 UBE? I scored a 156.3 on the MBE and a 149.7 on the MEE, for a total score of 306.


Based on your scaled J17 MBE score of 156.3, your estimated raw MBE score was about 133/175 correct. This is based on the 2013 New York MBE raw/scaled conversion (which is the most recent time a July MBE raw/scaled conversion was released by a state). This means you answered about 76% of the graded MBE questions correctly. Based on the J16 national statistics on the MBE (2017 statistics were just released but I haven't looked at them yet), this places you in the 82.4% percentile for the MBE. This means that about 17.6% of examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 156.3. Based on a total score of 306, this means your written score was 149.7. Assuming that the MEE/MPT percentiles follow the national MBE statistics, scoring a 149.7 Scaled MEE/MPT score would have placed you in the 70.8% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 29.2% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT). Very solid scores. My guess is you could sit for any exam in any state (including CA) and probably pass on your first attempt.

If you don't mind, can you briefly explain how you studied for the MBE (how long, what percentage of your overall study time, what questions you used, how many did you answer overall, and your overall % correct). I ask this to see if there is any commonality in study routines (such as # of practice questions).


Fascinating stuff: thanks for taking the time, Joe!

To answer your questions to the best of my ability, I used Kaplan and Critical Pass, but I can’t recall what my overall % correct was. However, I scored a raw score of 130 on Kaplan’s MBE final, so that’s pretty close to what I got on the real thing based on your numbers. I also seem to recall that I was maybe scoring anywhere between 65-80% correct towards the end of my bar prep.

To go into more detail about my study plan: because I worked full time practicing law in Nevada (about 60-70 hours per week, and in a new job at that time), and because I knew my study time would be limited, I started studying by doing MBE questions really early. Starting in mid-February 2017, I did approximately 10-20 MBE questions most days of the week. I did this for most of my bar study, eventually increasing that to 30-50 per day leading up to the first day of the exam.

Also, because I knew the MBE was worth half of my score whereas with Nevada it was worth only 30%, I spent probably 70-80% of my study time doing the MBE. If I had to guesstimate, I probably did 2,500-3,000 MBE questions, and studied for the bar approximately 20-25 hours per week.

The funny thing to me is, I spent more time studying for the MBE this last go around than I did back in 2008, and yet my score was practically the same: I scored a 156.6 in Nevada vs. 156.3 in Utah. I wonder if part of this is due to the increase in experimental questions from 10 to 25, and thus, my score would have been higher? It’s beyond my pay grade to figure that out: if I were good with numbers, I wouldn’t have gone to law school. lol

It’s nice to know that the numbers reflect that I could pass the first time elsewhere. I may decide to take CA next but that one is a beast and it’s very intimidating. Also, this last time taking the bar felt more difficult than Nevada’s, and Nevada is known for having one of the most difficult exams in the country. I think that was because retaking the exam after practicing for 9 years forced me to write like a law graduate instead of a practicing attorney. And yes, writing for the bar exam is not how most attorneys write in the real world.

I hope that answers your questions.


Thanks for the followup. Doing 2,500-3,000 Kaplan questions and scoring between 65-80% correct towards the end was a very good sign you would be scoring 150+ on the MBE. Because of the reliability of the MBE, if you do good on it, you should consistently do good on it (if you study about the same). On average, you should score within 85% of your previous score. In contrast, the written portion is much less reliable.Therefore, your precious time was correctly spent studying for the MBE, the most reliable part of the exam.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby chicoalto0649 » Sat May 19, 2018 12:22 pm

Paging Joe:

After passing the CBX, a big thanks to you: your Calculator and research on MBE scores was the only thing that kept my hopes of passing alive.

Anyway, the scale for the FEB 2018 Exam was released and there were commentary both ways arguing that this was in some ways more forgiving than other administrations, while on the other hand bar passage hit an all time low. Any thoughts on what may have accounted for this?

http://www.calbar.ca.gov/Portals/0/docu ... tr0218.pdf

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Postby ubebarstudying » Sun May 20, 2018 8:40 am

Respondeat_Inferior wrote:Hi Joe,

1. Do you have any hobbies or anything you like to do in your off-time in particular?

2. In your opinion, what is the best restaurant you've eaten at?

3. Plain-toe, cap-toe, or wingtip?


Thank you for asking these questions, it's as if you read my mind



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