MBE February 2018 Reactions.. Forum

[b290]

Can someone educate those of us still waiting for our results to come out about whether this is the correct way to "calculate" your score? I'm constantly doing math with worst case scenario numbers as I wait for my score but I'm not sure if I'm doing this correctly.

So I came out of my exam thinking I did decently well on the MBE (about how I was performing on Barbri and Adaptibar), finished and wrote decent MPTs, but screwed up a few of the essays.

MBE is 50%, MPT is 20% and MEE is 30% in UBE jurisdictions. So that would mean MBE = 200 points, MPT is 80 points, and MEE is 120 points, correct?
My jurisdiction (NY) requires a 266 to pass.

So if I got a 150 MBE + 60 MPT then I'd have 210 points. Then that would mean I'd need to have scored at least 56 points on my essays to have passed the NY exam if these numbers held true? That's like 46% on the essays...

If that's the case, how badly do you have to eff up on each essay to score a 46% on the MEE? Can you score that low on the MEE if you at least answered all of the questions and wrote something in IRAC to address each subquestion for the essay?

I'll save you the trouble. This is from my score report last July:

https://i.imgur.com/GFdR6fh.png

Obv, applicable for NY only.

A note. You're presuming you're getting 60/80 (75%) on the MPT. Unless you've either: (a) taken the NY exam before or (b) know what exactly a 75% entails, there's no way to know for sure. Even the model answer MPTs that the jurisdiction provides for each administration, don't have a score attached to them. So, effectively you'd be pulling numbers out of the air. Even if they did have scores, what counts for that mark changes every administration - the same goes for the MEE/essays.

Also, unless you're repeating the exam, you really can't know how you (specifically) did on the MBE. Effectively, without the MBE (which is independent of the different states grading curves), you can't come up with your 'worst case scenario.' That's why the MBE mean numbers are relevant.

I know NY's results are supposed to come out next week, but keep your sanity until then

My $.02

[Thebariscoming]

https://www.excellenceinlawschool.com/f ... ecord-low/ Any thoughts?

[hope2018]

https://www.excellenceinlawschool.com/f ... ecord-low/ Any thoughts?

The decline in Feb 2015 MBE scores is probably due to adding civ pro.

[Neilt001]

https://www.excellenceinlawschool.com/f ... ecord-low/ Any thoughts?

The decline in Feb 2015 MBE scores is probably due to adding civ pro.

... Yeah but I think the more pressing issue is that the exam we literally just wrote is the lowest in history. This means we need to do extra well on the written/state portion to pass. I wrote in NY where you need a 133, so it's a little low but hopefully not impossible for mediocre examinees like me!

[Bla Bla Bla Blah]

Can someone explain to me how this affects the curve for the MBE on state bar exams? I've heard that somehow a low average MBE score means that the balancing difference (i.e., the extra point difference that is added to the raw score to make up for difficulty differences in the MBE) actually becomes less helpful than when the MBE average score is high.

How does this work, and why does it work that way?

[JoeSeperac]

A lower mean MBE negatively affects the scale that is applied to arrive at a final score. I illustrate how the MBE mean affected pass rates from 1996-2013 here:
https://www.seperac.com/zcalc-pass-rates.php

Put simply, a high tide lifts all boats – the higher the MBE mean, the higher the scale. This theory is supported by data that I possess from failing examinees – in looking at 4,000+ pre-UBE scores I received from examinees from Feb 2008 - Feb 2015, the average July final score was 615.5 while the average February final score was 611.5, a difference of 4 points favoring July (where the MBE mean is always higher).

[Bla Bla Bla Blah]

A lower mean MBE negatively affects the scale that is applied to arrive at a final score. I illustrate how the MBE mean affected pass rates from 1996-2013 here:
https://www.seperac.com/zcalc-pass-rates.php

Put simply, a high tide lifts all boats – the higher the MBE mean, the higher the scale. This theory is supported by data that I possess from failing examinees – in looking at 4,000+ pre-UBE scores I received from examinees from Feb 2008 - Feb 2015, the average July final score was 615.5 while the average February final score was 611.5, a difference of 4 points favoring July (where the MBE mean is always higher).

Dayum! Thanks for explaining this my friend... if I'm within 4 points of passing in CA, I think this information is enough for me to justify jumping off a bridge now . Crazy how that works. a little counter-intuitive when you think about all that "we adjust for difficulty" nonsense that the NCBE puts out there! (who is it that determines that lower average doesn't mean higher difficulty... because the trend you posted surely makes it more difficult for all examinees who take in February!)

[b290]

A lower mean MBE negatively affects the scale that is applied to arrive at a final score. I illustrate how the MBE mean affected pass rates from 1996-2013 here:
https://www.seperac.com/zcalc-pass-rates.php

Put simply, a high tide lifts all boats – the higher the MBE mean, the higher the scale. This theory is supported by data that I possess from failing examinees – in looking at 4,000+ pre-UBE scores I received from examinees from Feb 2008 - Feb 2015, the average July final score was 615.5 while the average February final score was 611.5, a difference of 4 points favoring July (where the MBE mean is always higher).

Just to illustrate for non-NYers, NY used to multiply the MBE by 5:

Avg July scores: 123.1
Avg Feb scores: 122.1

I’ll presume those were the failing MBEs? Maybe my math is slightly off?

Question: Does a higher overall MBEs also translate into slightly more favorable essay scoring too (for July I mean)? I was comparing my essay scores for Feb and July 2017. My July essays & MPTs were much worse (lower avg pts) but yet I had a better written component score, cumulatively than Feb. That makes sense if the ‘higher quality’ writers buoy up scores in general.

The only other way I could think making sense is if the graders have access to the applicant’s MBE score (or give benefits of the doubt based on it), which I’m pretty sure isn’t the case.

Thoughts?

My $.02

[IwiLLdoIt]

Just failed the Feb 2018 MBE 123.6 Written 113.17. Studying as of today!!! all suggestions welcomed!

[JoeSeperac]

Question: Does a higher overall MBEs also translate into slightly more favorable essay scoring too (for July I mean)? I was comparing my essay scores for Feb and July 2017. My July essays & MPTs were much worse (lower avg pts) but yet I had a better written component score, cumulatively than Feb. That makes sense if the ‘higher quality’ writers buoy up scores in general.

A higher MBE average usually results in a better scale for the essays. For example, in F17, when the national MBE mean was 134, an examinee needed a scaled score of 50.93 to have an exactly passing MEE answer on the F17 NY exam (meaning the essay contributed 13.3 points to the examinee's final score). Meanwhile, in July 2017, the national MBE mean was 141.7. If you received a scaled score of 47.02 on a July 2017 MEE answer, this was an exactly passing score in J17 as it would have contributed 13.3 points to your total UBE score (which is 5% of 266). Thus, a 50.93 essay score in F17 is equal to a 47.02 essay score in J17.

In theory, the most you could ever get in points on the MEE is 30% of 400, or 120 points (you would have to write 6 model answers). Interestingly, if you answered none of the 6 MEE essays, you would still receive about 35 points towards your total UBE score (meaning you could pass NY with a 170 MBE, above average MPTs and not a word written for any of the 6 essays).

Honestly, you should be more concerned with % correct than the scale. For example, if you get 50% correct on the MBE, scaling will add about 25 points to your raw MBE score, while if you get 80% correct, scaling will add maybe 5 points to your raw MBE score. What does it matter if you get 25 points added to your score but always fail or have only 5 points added to your score but always pass. So don't worry about scaling and just concern yourself with % correct – you want 63% correct or better on the MBE to give yourself a good chance to pass.

That said, if you fail, I can give you a very good assessment of where you went wrong if you fill out this form:
https://seperac.com/scoreform.php

I regard this free score report as a quid pro quo - the information in the report helps you better understand your problem areas while the data helps me better understand the exam. For example, I use this data to determine the scale for each exam and then make score calculators.

[jrstephens1991]

Question: Does a higher overall MBEs also translate into slightly more favorable essay scoring too (for July I mean)? I was comparing my essay scores for Feb and July 2017. My July essays & MPTs were much worse (lower avg pts) but yet I had a better written component score, cumulatively than Feb. That makes sense if the ‘higher quality’ writers buoy up scores in general.

A higher MBE average usually results in a better scale for the essays. For example, in F17, when the national MBE mean was 134, an examinee needed a scaled score of 50.93 to have an exactly passing MEE answer on the F17 NY exam (meaning the essay contributed 13.3 points to the examinee's final score). Meanwhile, in July 2017, the national MBE mean was 141.7. If you received a scaled score of 47.02 on a July 2017 MEE answer, this was an exactly passing score in J17 as it would have contributed 13.3 points to your total UBE score (which is 5% of 266). Thus, a 50.93 essay score in F17 is equal to a 47.02 essay score in J17.

In theory, the most you could ever get in points on the MEE is 30% of 400, or 120 points (you would have to write 6 model answers). Interestingly, if you answered none of the 6 MEE essays, you would still receive about 35 points towards your total UBE score (meaning you could pass NY with a 170 MBE, above average MPTs and not a word written for any of the 6 essays).

Honestly, you should be more concerned with % correct than the scale. For example, if you get 50% correct on the MBE, scaling will add about 25 points to your raw MBE score, while if you get 80% correct, scaling will add maybe 5 points to your raw MBE score. What does it matter if you get 25 points added to your score but always fail or have only 5 points added to your score but always pass. So don't worry about scaling and just concern yourself with % correct – you want 63% correct or better on the MBE to give yourself a good chance to pass.

That said, if you fail, I can give you a very good assessment of where you went wrong if you fill out this form:
https://seperac.com/scoreform.php

I regard this free score report as a quid pro quo - the information in the report helps you better understand your problem areas while the data helps me better understand the exam. For example, I use this data to determine the scale for each exam and then make score calculators.

Can you state the chances of getting below a 150 on the MBE if you scored a 132 on Barbri midterm and 64 on the Refresher?

Also, exactly how bad do you have to do to get below a 120 on the essay section if you're in jurisdiction that has four Essays?

[animalpeople]

Finished both sections with at least 30 minutes remaining. I was surprised by how confident I was considering I only managed to complete 64% of my Themis program.

Felt the same. I think Themis was great.

Same. Themis had me very well prepared for the MBE (essays too for that matter but I feel very good about the MBE, let's hope those feelings are true).

Happy to hear that others are feeling confident. Looking forward to updates in April!

I passed!! 297 overall. 147.6 MBE. I only managed to study for 3.5 weeks due to morning sickness so I skimmed subjects I was fimilar with and focused on new material.

[JoeSeperac]

Can you state the chances of getting below a 150 on the MBE if you scored a 132 on Barbri midterm and 64 on the Refresher?

Its possible, but unlikely. It really depends on you. If you are a T1-T2 recent grad with an LGPA above 3.0, I would say that with a 132 on Barbri midterm and 64 on the Refresher, you are almost certainly going to get an MBE above 150. But if you are a T3-T4 recent grad with an LGPA below 3.0 and you scored a 132 on Barbri midterm and 64 on the Refresher, it would be less likely (I would guess in the range of 140-150). It really depends on the candidate. This is why two examinees can take the exact same bar review for the exact same length of time, study the exact same materials and answer the exact same questions, and yet one with get a 170 on the MBE and the other will get a 120.

Also, exactly how bad do you have to do to get below a 120 on the essay section if you're in jurisdiction that has four Essays?

If you answer 121 questions correctly on the February MBE (69.1% correct based on a total of 175 questions graded), this would result in a scaled MBE score of 145 on the MBE (based on the 2013 NY bar exam raw-scaled conversion - this is the most recent exam that reported raw/scaled MBE scores). A scaled score of 145 would mean your MBE score was better than 75.3% of examinees nationwide for the February 2016 MBE. Based on the NY UBE Pass rate of 266, an examinee with a scaled score of 145 on the MBE would need a scaled MEE/MPT score of 121 to pass the exam. If the MEE/MPT percentiles mirror the MBE percentiles (which they should), this means that an examinee with an MBE score of 145 (which is about 69% correct on the MBE) needs to write MEE/MPT answers that are better than only 16.9% of the February examinees.

So basically if you are better than 20% of the February pool of examinees, you will have above a 120 on the written.

[Neilt001]

Can you state the chances of getting below a 150 on the MBE if you scored a 132 on Barbri midterm and 64 on the Refresher?

Its possible, but unlikely. It really depends on you. If you are a T1-T2 recent grad with an LGPA above 3.0, I would say that with a 132 on Barbri midterm and 64 on the Refresher, you are almost certainly going to get an MBE above 150. But if you are a T3-T4 recent grad with an LGPA below 3.0 and you scored a 132 on Barbri midterm and 64 on the Refresher, it would be less likely (I would guess in the range of 140-150). It really depends on the candidate. This is why two examinees can take the exact same bar review for the exact same length of time, study the exact same materials and answer the exact same questions, and yet one with get a 170 on the MBE and the other will get a 120.

Also, exactly how bad do you have to do to get below a 120 on the essay section if you're in jurisdiction that has four Essays?

If you answer 121 questions correctly on the February MBE (69.1% correct based on a total of 175 questions graded), this would result in a scaled MBE score of 145 on the MBE (based on the 2013 NY bar exam raw-scaled conversion - this is the most recent exam that reported raw/scaled MBE scores). A scaled score of 145 would mean your MBE score was better than 75.3% of examinees nationwide for the February 2016 MBE. Based on the NY UBE Pass rate of 266, an examinee with a scaled score of 145 on the MBE would need a scaled MEE/MPT score of 121 to pass the exam. If the MEE/MPT percentiles mirror the MBE percentiles (which they should), this means that an examinee with an MBE score of 145 (which is about 69% correct on the MBE) needs to write MEE/MPT answers that are better than only 16.9% of the February examinees.

So basically if you are better than 20% of the February pool of examinees, you will have above a 120 on the written.

You know everything!!

[jrstephens1991]

Can you state the chances of getting below a 150 on the MBE if you scored a 132 on Barbri midterm and 64 on the Refresher?

Its possible, but unlikely. It really depends on you. If you are a T1-T2 recent grad with an LGPA above 3.0, I would say that with a 132 on Barbri midterm and 64 on the Refresher, you are almost certainly going to get an MBE above 150. But if you are a T3-T4 recent grad with an LGPA below 3.0 and you scored a 132 on Barbri midterm and 64 on the Refresher, it would be less likely (I would guess in the range of 140-150). It really depends on the candidate. This is why two examinees can take the exact same bar review for the exact same length of time, study the exact same materials and answer the exact same questions, and yet one with get a 170 on the MBE and the other will get a 120.

Also, exactly how bad do you have to do to get below a 120 on the essay section if you're in jurisdiction that has four Essays?

If you answer 121 questions correctly on the February MBE (69.1% correct based on a total of 175 questions graded), this would result in a scaled MBE score of 145 on the MBE (based on the 2013 NY bar exam raw-scaled conversion - this is the most recent exam that reported raw/scaled MBE scores). A scaled score of 145 would mean your MBE score was better than 75.3% of examinees nationwide for the February 2016 MBE. Based on the NY UBE Pass rate of 266, an examinee with a scaled score of 145 on the MBE would need a scaled MEE/MPT score of 121 to pass the exam. If the MEE/MPT percentiles mirror the MBE percentiles (which they should), this means that an examinee with an MBE score of 145 (which is about 69% correct on the MBE) needs to write MEE/MPT answers that are better than only 16.9% of the February examinees.

So basically if you are better than 20% of the February pool of examinees, you will have above a 120 on the written.

Thanks for this!

Unfortunately, I'm taking the Georgia bar so if I do in fact pass I won't know my MBE score. However, if I don't pass, I'm sure I'll have a low down on both sections.

Does your analysis vary much is the passing score is a 270?

[JoeSeperac]

Does your analysis vary much is the passing score is a 270?

Not much of a difference. While the below chart isn't dead-on, it will give you a good estimate (its based on the F16 exam). Lets say you need 125 on the written - you probably need to do better than about 26% of examinees to score a 125 or higher. However, these are nationwide stats, so your state could be more or less difficult, but its a good guide.

[jrstephens1991]

Does your analysis vary much is the passing score is a 270?

Not much of a difference. While the below chart isn't dead-on, it will give you a good estimate (its based on the F16 exam). Lets say you need 125 on the written - you probably need to do better than about 26% of examinees to score a 125 or higher. However, these are nationwide stats, so your state could be more or less difficult, but its a good guide.

Thank you!

[Thebariscoming]

Question to all those who felt the MBE was harder this time yet passed the bar exam. Would really appreciate some success stories. I am freaking out. How much did you all score on the actual exam?

[Respondeat_Inferior]

Question to all those who felt the MBE was harder this time yet passed the bar exam. Would really appreciate some success stories. I am freaking out. How much did you all score on the actual exam?

157.9 mbe, 146 written, MBE definitely threw me for a loop and unlike a lot of folks I didn't feel like there was a crazy morning session and an okay evening session or vice versa. Both sections were what-the-fuck-just-happened sections for me. I did all of my bar study program and then some extra, so while I didn't expect to ever be some kind of all-knowing guru I was certainly expecting to be able to have more that a tiny handful of questions where I felt I confidently knew the answer, but nope.

1. There were way more questions where I could pick out wrong answers than questions where I knew a correct one, and it's impossible to ever feel confident about those.
2. It felt like there were far too many questions where I just had no clue and I answered based on "well I'm pretty sure I've heard of stuff like that happening in court anecdotally so that's probably a thing".
3. It felt like none of the most frequently tested stuff showed up.

My armchair no-statistics-or-research hypothesis is this: A lot of the bar programs, especially the ones where you're cramming for time, have you focus on the most commonly tested areas. Then the most commonly tested areas didn't show up. I feel like I did alright because I didn't focus on anything in particular, I just followed the course through completion and I reread the lecture notes and final review outline repeatedly. I didn't have a lock on any particular area, but I had a fuzzy I've-vaguely-covered-everything jack-of-all-trades sort of knowledge which was beneficial in a scenario like this where crazy shit shows up. The folks who studied the commonly tested areas (a smart approach historically) got stuck with a lot of inapplicable information.

Please note, I didn't ignore the statistics because I thought I had a plan or anything, I just legit can't get myself to stick to a self-made study schedule. I have a nagging NEED to know what I'm "supposed" to be getting done. I can go off course if I need to but I'd get lost at the starting gate if someone just handed me outlines and said "go".

As for your freakout? Everyone has that freakout. Mine started I think in the evidence section. I was scoring in the 50% range on questions and the more I studied the worse my score in that area was getting. I went on rants about the insanity of it all to anyone around me, I wrote a lengthy e-mail to my Themis advisor about how in the fuck could I ever pass if the longer I studied the worse I got, I bought like 3 different extra supplements I never even ended up using (literally, I bought critical pass flash cards, lean sheets outlines and reviews, and emanual's MBE). I spent far too much time scouring posts about other people's average practice scores and then freaked out more with all the lying narcissists posting about how their practice score % is in the high 70s and 80s and it's all no big deal. This freakout lasted probably until a week before the exam. Mind you I didn't reach some sort of enlightenment where I felt fine. I just reached the point where I was like "whatever, being homeless isn't so bad, I can get a nice tent before they take away my credit".

But I still got a 157.9, and that's pretty good (pats self on back). If you do the work you'll pass, there's no guarantee that you'll ever feel like you're going to pass though.

[Nightcrawler]

Question to all those who felt the MBE was harder this time yet passed the bar exam. Would really appreciate some success stories. I am freaking out. How much did you all score on the actual exam?

157.9 mbe, 146 written, MBE definitely threw me for a loop and unlike a lot of folks I didn't feel like there was a crazy morning session and an okay evening session or vice versa. Both sections were what-the-fuck-just-happened sections for me. I did all of my bar study program and then some extra, so while I didn't expect to ever be some kind of all-knowing guru I was certainly expecting to be able to have more that a tiny handful of questions where I felt I confidently knew the answer, but nope.

1. There were way more questions where I could pick out wrong answers than questions where I knew a correct one, and it's impossible to ever feel confident about those.
2. It felt like there were far too many questions where I just had no clue and I answered based on "well I'm pretty sure I've heard of stuff like that happening in court anecdotally so that's probably a thing".
3. It felt like none of the most frequently tested stuff showed up.

My armchair no-statistics-or-research hypothesis is this: A lot of the bar programs, especially the ones where you're cramming for time, have you focus on the most commonly tested areas. Then the most commonly tested areas didn't show up. I feel like I did alright because I didn't focus on anything in particular, I just followed the course through completion and I reread the lecture notes and final review outline repeatedly. I didn't have a lock on any particular area, but I had a fuzzy I've-vaguely-covered-everything jack-of-all-trades sort of knowledge which was beneficial in a scenario like this where crazy shit shows up. The folks who studied the commonly tested areas (a smart approach historically) got stuck with a lot of inapplicable information.

Please note, I didn't ignore the statistics because I thought I had a plan or anything, I just legit can't get myself to stick to a self-made study schedule. I have a nagging NEED to know what I'm "supposed" to be getting done. I can go off course if I need to but I'd get lost at the starting gate if someone just handed me outlines and said "go".

As for your freakout? Everyone has that freakout. Mine started I think in the evidence section. I was scoring in the 50% range on questions and the more I studied the worse my score in that area was getting. I went on rants about the insanity of it all to anyone around me, I wrote a lengthy e-mail to my Themis advisor about how in the fuck could I ever pass if the longer I studied the worse I got, I bought like 3 different extra supplements I never even ended up using (literally, I bought critical pass flash cards, lean sheets outlines and reviews, and emanual's MBE). I spent far too much time scouring posts about other people's average practice scores and then freaked out more with all the lying narcissists posting about how their practice score % is in the high 70s and 80s and it's all no big deal. This freakout lasted probably until a week before the exam. Mind you I didn't reach some sort of enlightenment where I felt fine. I just reached the point where I was like "whatever, being homeless isn't so bad, I can get a nice tent before they take away my credit".

But I still got a 157.9, and that's pretty good (pats self on back). If you do the work you'll pass, there's no guarantee that you'll ever feel like you're going to pass though.

This really gives me hope. The whole MBE felt like a huge "what the fuck, never seen this stuff in thousands of NCBE questions" and hearing that you were in the same boat and got a 158 really helps. However, I don't have much legal working experience so the whole "I heard this anecdotally happening in court" unfortunately didn't apply to me. According to how I feel about the written part, I would probably need at least a 145 on the MBE. Fingers crossed.

[Meggoca]

Question to all those who felt the MBE was harder this time yet passed the bar exam. Would really appreciate some success stories. I am freaking out. How much did you all score on the actual exam?

I got 152.6 scaled on my MBE. I only wrote the one time, so this was my only time experiencing writing the MBE, but it was about what I expected from my prep. I used Themis supplemented with Critical Pass flash cards and Spaced Repetition for drilling, and read a couple of targeted chapters of Emmanuel’s Strategies and Tactics. Overall I did about 2200 MBE questions in prep, and I felt that the actual test was about what I expected - no surprises.

[Nightcrawler]

What did you guys who passed were averaging on adaptibar?

[Nightcrawler]

@Respondeat_Inferior were you scoring in the 50% on Adaptibar or Themis?

[Respondeat_Inferior]

@Respondeat_Inferior were you scoring in the 50% on Adaptibar or Themis?

Themis, I've never used adaptibar. The new evidence lecturer is garbage for Themis so I blame him partially, I worked my overall evidence score up to 64% by the end of the course, civil procedure ended up being my worst overall at 63% but I made a big comeback in evidence and just stayed mediocre from start to finish with civ pro.

[b290]

What did you guys who passed were averaging on adaptibar?

Mid 60s - I want to say about 63% overall. Did almost all of the questions. - 142.6 (July 2017)

My $.02