MBE February 2018 Reactions..

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b290

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Re: MBE February 2018 Reactions..

Postby b290 » Sun Apr 15, 2018 6:00 am

stephcurry30 wrote:Can someone educate those of us still waiting for our results to come out about whether this is the correct way to "calculate" your score? I'm constantly doing math with worst case scenario numbers as I wait for my score but I'm not sure if I'm doing this correctly.

So I came out of my exam thinking I did decently well on the MBE (about how I was performing on Barbri and Adaptibar), finished and wrote decent MPTs, but screwed up a few of the essays.

MBE is 50%, MPT is 20% and MEE is 30% in UBE jurisdictions. So that would mean MBE = 200 points, MPT is 80 points, and MEE is 120 points, correct?
My jurisdiction (NY) requires a 266 to pass.

So if I got a 150 MBE + 60 MPT then I'd have 210 points. Then that would mean I'd need to have scored at least 56 points on my essays to have passed the NY exam if these numbers held true? That's like 46% on the essays...

If that's the case, how badly do you have to eff up on each essay to score a 46% on the MEE? Can you score that low on the MEE if you at least answered all of the questions and wrote something in IRAC to address each subquestion for the essay?

I'll save you the trouble. This is from my score report last July:

https://i.imgur.com/GFdR6fh.png

Obv, applicable for NY only.

A note. You're presuming you're getting 60/80 (75%) on the MPT. Unless you've either: (a) taken the NY exam before or (b) know what exactly a 75% entails, there's no way to know for sure. Even the model answer MPTs that the jurisdiction provides for each administration, don't have a score attached to them. So, effectively you'd be pulling numbers out of the air. Even if they did have scores, what counts for that mark changes every administration - the same goes for the MEE/essays.

Also, unless you're repeating the exam, you really can't know how you (specifically) did on the MBE. Effectively, without the MBE (which is independent of the different states grading curves), you can't come up with your 'worst case scenario.' That's why the MBE mean numbers are relevant.

I know NY's results are supposed to come out next week, but keep your sanity until then :lol:

My $.02

Thebariscoming

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Re: MBE February 2018 Reactions..

Postby Thebariscoming » Wed Apr 18, 2018 1:21 pm


hope2018

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Re: MBE February 2018 Reactions..

Postby hope2018 » Wed Apr 18, 2018 2:39 pm

Thebariscoming wrote:https://www.excellenceinlawschool.com/february-2018-mbe-score-drops-to-record-low/ Any thoughts?



The decline in Feb 2015 MBE scores is probably due to adding civ pro.

Neilt001

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Re: MBE February 2018 Reactions..

Postby Neilt001 » Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:07 pm

hope2018 wrote:
Thebariscoming wrote:https://www.excellenceinlawschool.com/february-2018-mbe-score-drops-to-record-low/ Any thoughts?



The decline in Feb 2015 MBE scores is probably due to adding civ pro.


... Yeah but I think the more pressing issue is that the exam we literally just wrote is the lowest in history. This means we need to do extra well on the written/state portion to pass. I wrote in NY where you need a 133, so it's a little low but hopefully not impossible for mediocre examinees like me!

Bla Bla Bla Blah

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Re: MBE February 2018 Reactions..

Postby Bla Bla Bla Blah » Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:47 pm

Can someone explain to me how this affects the curve for the MBE on state bar exams? I've heard that somehow a low average MBE score means that the balancing difference (i.e., the extra point difference that is added to the raw score to make up for difficulty differences in the MBE) actually becomes less helpful than when the MBE average score is high.

How does this work, and why does it work that way?

JoeSeperac

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Re: MBE February 2018 Reactions..

Postby JoeSeperac » Thu Apr 19, 2018 12:54 am

A lower mean MBE negatively affects the scale that is applied to arrive at a final score. I illustrate how the MBE mean affected pass rates from 1996-2013 here:
https://www.seperac.com/zcalc-pass-rates.php

Put simply, a high tide lifts all boats – the higher the MBE mean, the higher the scale. This theory is supported by data that I possess from failing examinees – in looking at 4,000+ pre-UBE scores I received from examinees from Feb 2008 - Feb 2015, the average July final score was 615.5 while the average February final score was 611.5, a difference of 4 points favoring July (where the MBE mean is always higher).

Bla Bla Bla Blah

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Re: MBE February 2018 Reactions..

Postby Bla Bla Bla Blah » Thu Apr 19, 2018 8:00 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:A lower mean MBE negatively affects the scale that is applied to arrive at a final score. I illustrate how the MBE mean affected pass rates from 1996-2013 here:
https://www.seperac.com/zcalc-pass-rates.php

Put simply, a high tide lifts all boats – the higher the MBE mean, the higher the scale. This theory is supported by data that I possess from failing examinees – in looking at 4,000+ pre-UBE scores I received from examinees from Feb 2008 - Feb 2015, the average July final score was 615.5 while the average February final score was 611.5, a difference of 4 points favoring July (where the MBE mean is always higher).


Dayum! Thanks for explaining this my friend... if I'm within 4 points of passing in CA, I think this information is enough for me to justify jumping off a bridge now :lol:. Crazy how that works. a little counter-intuitive when you think about all that "we adjust for difficulty" nonsense that the NCBE puts out there! (who is it that determines that lower average doesn't mean higher difficulty... because the trend you posted surely makes it more difficult for all examinees who take in February!)



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