2018 February CA Bar

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a male human

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby a male human » Fri May 11, 2018 12:43 pm

horriblegb wrote:Is it worth reading into it at all that if my c&f app has not been approved? Could that mean I did not pass the bar?

There is nothing remarkable on my C&F and I submitted at the end of November. I don't know how much cross chatter there is between departments, or if you get moved to the bottom if you fail or anything like that.

Basically last week jitters

That sucks. "Good" news is that there's no known way to tell whether you passed the bar ahead of time. Many e-detectives have tried to read the tea leaves by looking into admission statuses, but there's no correlation between anything and your pass status. So it's possible that you still passed the bar!

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby redmessengerbag » Fri May 11, 2018 12:52 pm

OK, this is weird. I'm not gonna start studying until I know for sure I didn't pass.

BUT, I did just do some practice MBE question using the free adaptibar trial and I score over 70%, this has strangely provided me some comfort about the actual bar, especially because I haven't thought about law for over 2 months, and I still did alrite, hahaha. Aside from that, I have a long track record of doing better on actual exams than on practice exams, possibly because I am more focused on actual exams, so this makes me feel even better...stay in there guys! one more week and 8 hours to go!

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby Nightcrawler » Fri May 11, 2018 1:14 pm

This is endless. I’ve already started 2 months ago with the worst subjects, one by one. Civ pro, contracts and real property. Outlines, reading 10 past essays for each subjects and then a ton of adaptibar. I hope I will be able to stop in a week because the idea of actually having to finish all the subjects makes me wanna vomit. I don’t want to go through it again.

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby Nightcrawler » Fri May 11, 2018 1:20 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
Nightcrawler wrote:
a male human wrote:[...]I'm more concerned about the dipping trend across the years, the slow deflation of the mean score. Is that because students are "less able," or are they grading harsher, or something else?


I don't know if students are "less able" as I didn't look much into all that "lower LSAT scores = lower bar pass rates" but one thing is for sure: the exam is getting harder. Adding Civ Pro to the MBE is the most blatant sign. Then, there is the political reluctance in favor of slightly lowering the cut score which confirms that the exam now is more about limiting licenses rather than protecting the public from some lawyers that are not minimaly competent. Hopefully I'll pass before they'll add some other unnecessary extra requirement to the table :roll:


I use the 25th Percentile LSAT and 75th Percentile LSAT as a barometer for pass rates. If the Average LSAT for a class of matriculants drops as compared to the prior class, I similarly expect their bar exam pass rates to drop as compared to the prior class (the raw data can be viewed here: http://www.abarequireddisclosures.org/). This is how it looks for incoming classes from 2010 to 2016:

https://seperac.com/pdf/LSAT%20Percentiles.png

I agree that Civ Pro caused problems but that has balanced itself out. NCBE used to release the MBE subscores and then stopped doing it just prior to the introduction of Civ Pro on the MBE. At the time, NCBE claimed that the subscores were being eliminated because they weren't useful. Personally, I believe they removed the subscores because they knew there would be abnormalities with Civ Pro (e.g. an examinee would score well on all the MBE subjects except Civ Pro). Then in Feb 2017, NCBE reversed itself and said subscores were useful again and they would re-release them. This was a signal to me that NCBE sorted out all the Civ Pro abnormalities, so I wouldn't blame Civ Pro for F18 MBE problems.


Oh I wasn't blaming Civ Pro for the low F18 scores. I was simply saying that just the fact that they decided to add another subject shows that they are trying to make the exam more difficult.

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby redmessengerbag » Sat May 12, 2018 12:09 am

I got a 138 on the J17 MBE. I got 85% correct on CivPro (these questions are pretty mechanical)...and of course some subjects like contracts and Torts was 15-20%...Contracts and Torts were my strongest subjects in law school...

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby Nightcrawler » Sat May 12, 2018 12:33 am

redmessengerbag wrote:I got a 138 on the J17 MBE. I got 85% correct on CivPro (these questions are pretty mechanical)...and of course some subjects like contracts and Torts was 15-20%...Contracts and Torts were my strongest subjects in law school...


How do you know how many you got right? Did you mean percentile or does your state release the subscores?

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby redmessengerbag » Sat May 12, 2018 11:35 am

Nightcrawler wrote:
redmessengerbag wrote:I got a 138 on the J17 MBE. I got 85% correct on CivPro (these questions are pretty mechanical)...and of course some subjects like contracts and Torts was 15-20%...Contracts and Torts were my strongest subjects in law school...


How do you know how many you got right? Did you mean percentile or does your state release the subscores?


Oh nm, I guess it must the be percentiles then...my bad...

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby JoeSeperac » Sun May 13, 2018 1:10 pm

redmessengerbag wrote:I got a 138 on the J17 MBE. I got 85% correct on CivPro (these questions are pretty mechanical)...and of course some subjects like contracts and Torts was 15-20%...Contracts and Torts were my strongest subjects in law school...


In J17, 88.2 percentile in Civ Pro was 21/25 correct. In Ks, a 25.8 percentile was 15/25 correct while 34 percentile was 16/25 correct. Did this match up with your practice MBE scores?

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby JoeSeperac » Sun May 13, 2018 1:16 pm

I just made a calculator that will accurately estimate a Written Scaled Score and Total Score for the July 2017 California bar exam based on the scores you enter. You can use this to estimate your J18 performance.
https://ubeessays.com/california-july-2 ... alculator/

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby redmessengerbag » Sun May 13, 2018 1:40 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
redmessengerbag wrote:I got a 138 on the J17 MBE. I got 85% correct on CivPro (these questions are pretty mechanical)...and of course some subjects like contracts and Torts was 15-20%...Contracts and Torts were my strongest subjects in law school...


In J17, 88.2 percentile in Civ Pro was 21/25 correct. In Ks, a 25.8 percentile was 15/25 correct while 34 percentile was 16/25 correct. Did this match up with your practice MBE scores?


Thanks!

Embarrassed to say, I only did about 350-400 total MBE practice questions for J17(among those maybe 2 Barbri CivPro sets 36-40ish), and spent 10-12 total days of good studying...so...I was shocked when I saw how well I did on CivPro. I do feel like the CivPro Qs are much more black/white and less tricky than the Torts/Contracts, e.g., if you didn't raise PJ or other waivable Ds in the first filing...then you waive. Just look for that first filing no matter how they try to word the motions..

wow a 60% correct on Contracts is only 25.8 percentile, I wouldn't have dreamed of that, I would have thought that a 60% on Contracts would have landed a little closer to average and 50 percentile, so people really did well in those sections...

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horriblegb

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby horriblegb » Mon May 14, 2018 11:18 am

a male human wrote:
horriblegb wrote:Is it worth reading into it at all that if my c&f app has not been approved? Could that mean I did not pass the bar?

There is nothing remarkable on my C&F and I submitted at the end of November. I don't know how much cross chatter there is between departments, or if you get moved to the bottom if you fail or anything like that.

Basically last week jitters

That sucks. "Good" news is that there's no known way to tell whether you passed the bar ahead of time. Many e-detectives have tried to read the tea leaves by looking into admission statuses, but there's no correlation between anything and your pass status. So it's possible that you still passed the bar!



Thanks I was thinking that the two might not be related at all but I wasnt sure. I am not worried about getting passed C&F and this is my second bar. I just don't want to have to do it again.

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby krispymenudo » Mon May 14, 2018 11:54 am

Hey folks. Hope everyone is hanging in there...... I barely am. Does anyone know if there is a way I can look at my Adaptibar stats from Feb 2018? Since my subscription has ended, my dashboard only provides me with the option of re-registering for the next examination.

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby What'sUP? » Mon May 14, 2018 12:15 pm

Hey! Hope everyone is doing well. Sure wishing everyone well! I am hanging in there . . . kind of. I think I am already in . . . or about to experience . . . a rollercoaster of emotions. Like this morning I was excited thinking, "well, no matter what, come Friday I will be able to move forward either way. If I have to retest, then I can commit mentally with certainty that that I know what I will be doing for the next few months. Its all good. " Hours pass, and next I imagine getting a score report only to see where I totally bombed it, and then the bitterness starts bubbling up!!!!! Now I am just telling myself to stay calm. . . .

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby krispymenudo » Mon May 14, 2018 12:27 pm

What'sUP? wrote:Hey! Hope everyone is doing well. Sure wishing everyone well! I am hanging in there . . . kind of. I think I am already in . . . or about to experience . . . a rollercoaster of emotions. Like this morning I was excited thinking, "well, no matter what, come Friday I will be able to move forward either way. If I have to retest, then I can commit mentally with certainty that that I know what I will be doing for the next few months. Its all good. " Hours pass, and next I imagine getting a score report only to see where I totally bombed it, and then the bitterness starts bubbling up!!!!! Now I am just telling myself to stay calm. . . .


I keep having moments of clarity that I'll be okay either way, punctuated by moments of sheer panic. I'm so ready to begin my career, and I just really want to clear this hurdle so I can get to practicing. But I'm trying to tell myself it'll all work out and everything happens for a reason, should I not pass this time.

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby What'sUP? » Mon May 14, 2018 2:05 pm

krispymenudo wrote:
What'sUP? wrote:Hey! Hope everyone is doing well. Sure wishing everyone well! I am hanging in there . . . kind of. I think I am already in . . . or about to experience . . . a rollercoaster of emotions. Like this morning I was excited thinking, "well, no matter what, come Friday I will be able to move forward either way. If I have to retest, then I can commit mentally with certainty that that I know what I will be doing for the next few months. Its all good. " Hours pass, and next I imagine getting a score report only to see where I totally bombed it, and then the bitterness starts bubbling up!!!!! Now I am just telling myself to stay calm. . . .


I keep having moments of clarity that I'll be okay either way, punctuated by moments of sheer panic. I'm so ready to begin my career, and I just really want to clear this hurdle so I can get to practicing. But I'm trying to tell myself it'll all work out and everything happens for a reason, should I not pass this time.


Ummmmmm . . . ditto! Right?! I don't know if I will look on Friday or wait -- we'll see.

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby hope2018 » Mon May 14, 2018 2:27 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:I just made a calculator that will accurately estimate a Written Scaled Score and Total Score for the July 2017 California bar exam based on the scores you enter. You can use this to estimate your J18 performance.
https://ubeessays.com/california-july-2 ... alculator/



Thank you!!!! It is more accurate than the "onetimer" calculator.

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby hope2018 » Mon May 14, 2018 3:16 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:I just made a calculator that will accurately estimate a Written Scaled Score and Total Score for the July 2017 California bar exam based on the scores you enter. You can use this to estimate your J18 performance.
https://ubeessays.com/california-july-2 ... alculator/


Would Feb curve be lower based on your formula and calculation?

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chicoalto0649

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby chicoalto0649 » Mon May 14, 2018 6:56 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:I just made a calculator that will accurately estimate a Written Scaled Score and Total Score for the July 2017 California bar exam based on the scores you enter. You can use this to estimate your J18 performance.
https://ubeessays.com/california-july-2 ... alculator/


Thanks...one question, on July 2016 I scored a 1550 scaled score, with a 1398 total score. My final written score was 570 ish. This means my final MBE score was around an 830. I see a 1550 on this calculator yields a 790 final MBE score. Can you detail what accounts for this drop and what it would take to score comparably on Feb 18. I know July '16 still had the 35% MBE component.

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby a male human » Mon May 14, 2018 7:06 pm

chicoalto0649 wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:I just made a calculator that will accurately estimate a Written Scaled Score and Total Score for the July 2017 California bar exam based on the scores you enter. You can use this to estimate your J18 performance.
https://ubeessays.com/california-july-2 ... alculator/


Thanks...one question, on July 2016 I scored a 1550 scaled score, with a 1398 total score. My final written score was 570 ish. This means my final MBE score was around an 830. I see a 1550 on this calculator yields a 790 final MBE score. Can you detail what accounts for this drop and what it would take to score comparably on Feb 18. I know July '16 still had the 35% MBE component.


Can you clarify the 1550 scaled score? If your scaled score was at least 1440, you would have passed and wouldn't have gotten your score back.

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby chicoalto0649 » Mon May 14, 2018 7:20 pm

a male human wrote:
chicoalto0649 wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:I just made a calculator that will accurately estimate a Written Scaled Score and Total Score for the July 2017 California bar exam based on the scores you enter. You can use this to estimate your J18 performance.
https://ubeessays.com/california-july-2 ... alculator/


Thanks...one question, on July 2016 I scored a 1550 scaled score, with a 1398 total score. My final written score was 570 ish. This means my final MBE score was around an 830. I see a 1550 on this calculator yields a 790 final MBE score. Can you detail what accounts for this drop and what it would take to score comparably on Feb 18. I know July '16 still had the 35% MBE component.


Can you clarify the 1550 scaled score? If your scaled score was at least 1440, you would have passed and wouldn't have gotten your score back.


Sorry - for MBE my final scaled score was 1550. My total/final bar exam score was a 1398, with a 568 written score.

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby JoeSeperac » Tue May 15, 2018 12:30 am

hope2018 wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:I just made a calculator that will accurately estimate a Written Scaled Score and Total Score for the July 2017 California bar exam based on the scores you enter. You can use this to estimate your J18 performance.
https://ubeessays.com/california-july-2 ... alculator/


Would Feb curve be lower based on your formula and calculation?


Most likely. The thing is that CA switched to a different exam format with different component weights in J17, so there is no way to say until F18 scores come out.

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby JoeSeperac » Tue May 15, 2018 12:41 am

chicoalto0649 wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:I just made a calculator that will accurately estimate a Written Scaled Score and Total Score for the July 2017 California bar exam based on the scores you enter. You can use this to estimate your J18 performance.
https://ubeessays.com/california-july-2 ... alculator/


Thanks...one question, on July 2016 I scored a 1550 scaled score, with a 1398 total score. My final written score was 570 ish. This means my final MBE score was around an 830. I see a 1550 on this calculator yields a 790 final MBE score. Can you detail what accounts for this drop and what it would take to score comparably on Feb 18. I know July '16 still had the 35% MBE component.


Yes, the new component weights are the reason. Since CA switched to a different exam format with different component weights in J17, there is not much point in trying to compare pre-J17 performance to post-J17 performance.

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chicoalto0649

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby chicoalto0649 » Tue May 15, 2018 1:36 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
chicoalto0649 wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:I just made a calculator that will accurately estimate a Written Scaled Score and Total Score for the July 2017 California bar exam based on the scores you enter. You can use this to estimate your J18 performance.
https://ubeessays.com/california-july-2 ... alculator/


Thanks...one question, on July 2016 I scored a 1550 scaled score, with a 1398 total score. My final written score was 570 ish. This means my final MBE score was around an 830. I see a 1550 on this calculator yields a 790 final MBE score. Can you detail what accounts for this drop and what it would take to score comparably on Feb 18. I know July '16 still had the 35% MBE component.


Yes, the new component weights are the reason. Since CA switched to a different exam format with different component weights in J17, there is not much point in trying to compare pre-J17 performance to post-J17 performance.


I see, however, with a scaled MBE of 1550, how much predictive value does that have for a F18 scaled MBE. If it's any insight, I completed the entire adaptibar course, as well as the entire Emmanuels S&Ts. I had to start studying much earlier, but by the end I was consistently in the 80s for most subjects. In J16 I only completed about 85% of Adaptibar and used that exclusively. If it's any help I found the following excerpt from a press release released in April regarding feb 18:

"The national average MBE score for February 2018 was 132.8, a decrease of about 1.3 points from the February 2017 average of 134.1. The reliability of the February 2018 MBE was 0.92, an all-time high for February."

I'm not sure what the .92 bit means...

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby maxmartin » Tue May 15, 2018 2:14 pm

chicoalto0649 wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:
chicoalto0649 wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:I just made a calculator that will accurately estimate a Written Scaled Score and Total Score for the July 2017 California bar exam based on the scores you enter. You can use this to estimate your J18 performance.
https://ubeessays.com/california-july-2 ... alculator/


Thanks...one question, on July 2016 I scored a 1550 scaled score, with a 1398 total score. My final written score was 570 ish. This means my final MBE score was around an 830. I see a 1550 on this calculator yields a 790 final MBE score. Can you detail what accounts for this drop and what it would take to score comparably on Feb 18. I know July '16 still had the 35% MBE component.


Yes, the new component weights are the reason. Since CA switched to a different exam format with different component weights in J17, there is not much point in trying to compare pre-J17 performance to post-J17 performance.


I see, however, with a scaled MBE of 1550, how much predictive value does that have for a F18 scaled MBE. If it's any insight, I completed the entire adaptibar course, as well as the entire Emmanuels S&Ts. I had to start studying much earlier, but by the end I was consistently in the 80s for most subjects. In J16 I only completed about 85% of Adaptibar and used that exclusively. If it's any help I found the following excerpt from a press release released in April regarding feb 18:

"The national average MBE score for February 2018 was 132.8, a decrease of about 1.3 points from the February 2017 average of 134.1. The reliability of the February 2018 MBE was 0.92, an all-time high for February."

I'm not sure what the .92 bit means...


Scores do fluctuate at least for me. I got 159 in J and only achieved 149 in the following F. Reliability I think is measured by those repeated questions in the exam aka the internal control.

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Re: 2018 February CA Bar

Postby redmessengerbag » Tue May 15, 2018 6:33 pm

how quickly does the CA state bar update the admission status page for passage info? I've been checking everyday for clues hahaha, no changes to report. I even went through the trouble of correcting my missing MPRE score a few weeks ago in preparation. I didn't bother in July.



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