FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

When will BOLE released FEB NY BAR RESULTS?

April 20
4
11%
April 24
13
37%
April 25
6
17%
April 26
6
17%
April 27
4
11%
Later
2
6%
 
Total votes: 35

Blackhawks_Fan
Posts: 95
Joined: Sun Mar 19, 2017 7:34 pm

Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby Blackhawks_Fan » Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:08 pm

scoomer wrote:
F17fighterpilot wrote:Wasn't trying to be rude. The statistics show lower percentages for foreign educated test-takers. No reason to make a jab at me.


Where are the statistics? I'm a first time foreign taker with an MBE scaled score of 148.4, (wondering if it could've been higher if I'd taken in July). Passed MA, waiting for NY desperately! My law school said that February has a low mean score because of foreign re-takers as well as american re-takers, and apparently the statistics for re-takers passing is low. So, I don't think it's fair to single out foreign takers alone. Many of my foreign bar takers passed NY at their first go. I hope I do too! Good luck to everyone!


F17 is right. % of foreign takers passing NY is much lower than U.S. takers, by quite some margin. Some of that will be down to things like English not being mother tongue, different styles of teaching, etc but F17 is right. Some facts are still facts, even in this day and age ..

Sheeit
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 8:11 pm

Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby Sheeit » Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:59 pm

Blackhawks_Fan wrote:
scoomer wrote:
F17fighterpilot wrote:Wasn't trying to be rude. The statistics show lower percentages for foreign educated test-takers. No reason to make a jab at me.


Where are the statistics? I'm a first time foreign taker with an MBE scaled score of 148.4, (wondering if it could've been higher if I'd taken in July). Passed MA, waiting for NY desperately! My law school said that February has a low mean score because of foreign re-takers as well as american re-takers, and apparently the statistics for re-takers passing is low. So, I don't think it's fair to single out foreign takers alone. Many of my foreign bar takers passed NY at their first go. I hope I do too! Good luck to everyone!


F17 is right. % of foreign takers passing NY is much lower than U.S. takers, by quite some margin. Some of that will be down to things like English not being mother tongue, different styles of teaching, etc but F17 is right. Some facts are still facts, even in this day and age ..


It's true. Statistics are posted on the past exam results page in the press releases. Foreign first time takers have considerably lower pass rates. For July 2016, all ABA first time takers passed 83%, foreign first timers passed 45%. For February 2016, those numbers were 67% and 34% respectively.

F17fighterpilot
Posts: 27
Joined: Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:58 am

Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby F17fighterpilot » Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:22 pm

Scoomer: you should pass. No need to worry. As long as you do average or even slighty below average on the MEE and MPT, you'll have well above a 266. Your 148 is awesome, and means you only need a 118 on the rest. Not getting to give you false hope but I'd be super proud of your MBE and dual bar chances.

As for the foreigners comment. I misspoke slightly, I was including them as well as a larger percentage of non-first-time takers as a potential hypothetical as to why F17 might be harder historically. I'm not trying to put you or anyone else in a mold because we all know... It depends.. It depends.. It depends

Best of luck to you

F17fighterpilot
Posts: 27
Joined: Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:58 am

Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby F17fighterpilot » Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:23 pm

Scoomer: you should pass. No need to worry. As long as you do average or even slighty below average on the MEE and MPT, you'll have well above a 266. Your 148 is awesome, and means you only need a 118 on the rest. Not getting to give you false hope but I'd be super proud of your MBE and dual bar chances.

As for the foreigners comment. I misspoke slightly, I was including them as well as a larger percentage of non-first-time takers as a potential hypothetical as to why F17 might be harder historically. I'm not trying to put you or anyone else in a mold because we all know... It depends.. It depends.. It depends

Best of luck to you

Blackhawks_Fan
Posts: 95
Joined: Sun Mar 19, 2017 7:34 pm

Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby Blackhawks_Fan » Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:29 pm

Scoomer: Besides, you should interpret it another way - more how incredibly impressive it then is to pass as a foreign taker. You can use the stats to blow peoples' minds when you pass.

happyhour1122
Posts: 1059
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2017 5:08 pm

Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby happyhour1122 » Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:37 pm

Scoomer. Your mbe score 178. Your essay 150. Done deal.

scoomer
Posts: 31
Joined: Sun Apr 16, 2017 9:18 pm

Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby scoomer » Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:24 pm

F17fighterpilot wrote:Scoomer: you should pass. No need to worry. As long as you do average or even slighty below average on the MEE and MPT, you'll have well above a 266. Your 148 is awesome, and means you only need a 118 on the rest. Not getting to give you false hope but I'd be super proud of your MBE and dual bar chances.

As for the foreigners comment. I misspoke slightly, I was including them as well as a larger percentage of non-first-time takers as a potential hypothetical as to why F17 might be harder historically. I'm not trying to put you or anyone else in a mold because we all know... It depends.. It depends.. It depends

Best of luck to you


No worries! I was just wondering where the statistics were from and in what pool. I understand it IS hard for a lot of foreign takers because of the language and format. Thanks for clarifying the data, and also for your encouragement. I do hope you're right. :)

I hope you and everyone waiting on results pass too! Either way it won't be the end of the world. We are going to keep trying till we succeed. :)
Good luck!

JoeSeperac
Posts: 57
Joined: Thu Feb 16, 2017 3:30 pm

Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby JoeSeperac » Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:32 pm

scoomer wrote:
F17fighterpilot wrote:Scoomer: you should pass. No need to worry. As long as you do average or even slighty below average on the MEE and MPT, you'll have well above a 266. Your 148 is awesome, and means you only need a 118 on the rest. Not getting to give you false hope but I'd be super proud of your MBE and dual bar chances.

As for the foreigners comment. I misspoke slightly, I was including them as well as a larger percentage of non-first-time takers as a potential hypothetical as to why F17 might be harder historically. I'm not trying to put you or anyone else in a mold because we all know... It depends.. It depends.. It depends

Best of luck to you


No worries! I was just wondering where the statistics were from and in what pool. I understand it IS hard for a lot of foreign takers because of the language and format. Thanks for clarifying the data, and also for your encouragement. I do hope you're right. :)

I hope you and everyone waiting on results pass too! Either way it won't be the end of the world. We are going to keep trying till we succeed. :)
Good luck!


You should pass. Based on your scaled MBE score of 148, your estimated raw MBE score was about 125/175 correct. This is based on the 2013 New York MBE raw/scaled conversion (which is the most recent time an MBE raw/scaled conversion was released). This means you answered about 71.4% of the graded MBE questions correctly. Based on the Feb 2016 national statistics on the MBE (this year's statistics will not be released until next year), this places you in the 81.4% percentile for the MBE. This means that only 18.6% of Feb 2016 examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 148. With your scaled MBE score of 148, you would have needed a written score of 118 to pass the exam with a total score of 266. Assuming again that the MEE/MPT percentiles follow the Feb 2016 national MBE statistics, scoring a 118 Scaled MEE/MPT score would place you in the 14% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning you can do worse than 85% of Feb 2016 examinees nationwide on the MEE/MPT and still pass).

udonisandtrinity
Posts: 202
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby udonisandtrinity » Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:41 pm

happyhour1122 wrote:Scoomer. Your mbe score 178. Your essay 150. Done deal.


Happyhour1122, what mbe score are you expecting?

F17fighterpilot
Posts: 27
Joined: Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:58 am

Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby F17fighterpilot » Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:48 pm

udonisandtrinity wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:Scoomer. Your mbe score 178. Your essay 150. Done deal.


Happyhour1122, what mbe score are you expecting?


i'm not happy..

but I'm expecting about average. If I get a 135 MBE scaled.. pretty good chance of passing.. if only barely.
I have no idea.. we narrow it down to two choices and then pick one and move on... and the real treat will be to find out.. was I on a super hot streak of understanding how to exclude the wrong answer? or was I getting suckered into the red herring choice because I was over thinking things. Same thing happened during bar prep. I'd get like 14 right in a row and then 8 wrong in a row.. im like.. how can I maintain solid mental stamina!!

It shall be a surprise. Fingers crossed.

scoomer
Posts: 31
Joined: Sun Apr 16, 2017 9:18 pm

Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby scoomer » Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:23 am

JoeSeperac wrote:
scoomer wrote:
F17fighterpilot wrote:Scoomer: you should pass. No need to worry. As long as you do average or even slighty below average on the MEE and MPT, you'll have well above a 266. Your 148 is awesome, and means you only need a 118 on the rest. Not getting to give you false hope but I'd be super proud of your MBE and dual bar chances.

As for the foreigners comment. I misspoke slightly, I was including them as well as a larger percentage of non-first-time takers as a potential hypothetical as to why F17 might be harder historically. I'm not trying to put you or anyone else in a mold because we all know... It depends.. It depends.. It depends

Best of luck to you


No worries! I was just wondering where the statistics were from and in what pool. I understand it IS hard for a lot of foreign takers because of the language and format. Thanks for clarifying the data, and also for your encouragement. I do hope you're right. :)

I hope you and everyone waiting on results pass too! Either way it won't be the end of the world. We are going to keep trying till we succeed. :)
Good luck!


You should pass. Based on your scaled MBE score of 148, your estimated raw MBE score was about 125/175 correct. This is based on the 2013 New York MBE raw/scaled conversion (which is the most recent time an MBE raw/scaled conversion was released). This means you answered about 71.4% of the graded MBE questions correctly. Based on the Feb 2016 national statistics on the MBE (this year's statistics will not be released until next year), this places you in the 81.4% percentile for the MBE. This means that only 18.6% of Feb 2016 examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 148. With your scaled MBE score of 148, you would have needed a written score of 118 to pass the exam with a total score of 266. Assuming again that the MEE/MPT percentiles follow the Feb 2016 national MBE statistics, scoring a 118 Scaled MEE/MPT score would place you in the 14% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning you can do worse than 85% of Feb 2016 examinees nationwide on the MEE/MPT and still pass).


Thank you for the thorough analysis- that's a relief to read! I happened to check your website out and recommended it to a couple of friends who are taking the bar this July!

happyhour1122
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Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby happyhour1122 » Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:14 am

udonisandtrinity wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:Scoomer. Your mbe score 178. Your essay 150. Done deal.


Happyhour1122, what mbe score are you expecting?



Any score to pass...
But I am hoping at least 140..

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PersistentAttorney
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Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby PersistentAttorney » Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:45 am

happyhour1122 wrote:
udonisandtrinity wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:Scoomer. Your mbe score 178. Your essay 150. Done deal.


Happyhour1122, what mbe score are you expecting?



Any score to pass...
But I am hoping at least 140..


Same here.. At least 140 on both MBE and written portions. (I know nobody asked but ... :| )

happyhour1122
Posts: 1059
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2017 5:08 pm

Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby happyhour1122 » Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:10 am

PersistentAttorney wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:
udonisandtrinity wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:Scoomer. Your mbe score 178. Your essay 150. Done deal.


Happyhour1122, what mbe score are you expecting?



Any score to pass...
But I am hoping at least 140..


Same here.. At least 140 on both MBE and written portions. (I know nobody asked but ... :| )



I still don't understand how scores can go down when people study harder and feel better about the second exam..this exam is so unpredictable.

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PersistentAttorney
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Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby PersistentAttorney » Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:36 am

happyhour1122 wrote:
PersistentAttorney wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:
udonisandtrinity wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:Scoomer. Your mbe score 178. Your essay 150. Done deal.


Happyhour1122, what mbe score are you expecting?



Any score to pass...
But I am hoping at least 140..


Same here.. At least 140 on both MBE and written portions. (I know nobody asked but ... :| )



I still don't understand how scores can go down when people study harder and feel better about the second exam..this exam is so unpredictable.


I think it has to do with the format and structure of the exam. Some people just cannot reach their full potential in such tight time periods. Some others just don't study as much as needed. And then us foreign takers. Essays are tough to handle in such little time in a second language, and the US is the only country I know that focuses so much in multiple choice exams. Foreigners are not so familiar with that system.

maxmartin
Posts: 603
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2011 5:41 pm

Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby maxmartin » Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:12 am

PersistentAttorney wrote:I think it has to do with the format and structure of the exam. Some people just cannot reach their full potential in such tight time periods. Some others just don't study as much as needed. And then us foreign takers. Essays are tough to handle in such little time in a second language, and the US is the only country I know that focuses so much in multiple choice exams. Foreigners are not so familiar with that system.


Because essay is too arbitrary. "One of the most interesting findings from this paper was that when they gave the same examinee's essay to all the graders (without telling them) to see how consistent they were (the graders were told to mark each essay pass or fail), they found that the graders were consistent only 67% of the time (i.e. for every two graders that marked the essay a PASS, one grader marked it a FAIL)". Glad CA move to 50% MBE.

JoeSeperac wrote:
Sorry, no clue about the new score system, but there is a great paper on the CA score system from 1977:
http://www.seaphe.org/pdf/past-bar-rese ... ations.pdf

One of the most interesting findings from this paper was that when they gave the same examinee's essay to all the graders (without telling them) to see how consistent they were (the graders were told to mark each essay pass or fail), they found that the graders were consistent only 67% of the time (i.e. for every two graders that marked the essay a PASS, one grader marked it a FAIL).

My personal opinion is that CA will switch to the UBE in a few years (the switch from a 3-day exam to a 2-day exam was rather suggestive of this). The big states are eventually going to all fall in line (e.g. Illinois is currently considering the UBE and will probably be the next big jurisdiction to switch).

happyhour1122
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Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby happyhour1122 » Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:14 am

maxmartin wrote:
PersistentAttorney wrote:I think it has to do with the format and structure of the exam. Some people just cannot reach their full potential in such tight time periods. Some others just don't study as much as needed. And then us foreign takers. Essays are tough to handle in such little time in a second language, and the US is the only country I know that focuses so much in multiple choice exams. Foreigners are not so familiar with that system.


Because essay is too arbitrary. "One of the most interesting findings from this paper was that when they gave the same examinee's essay to all the graders (without telling them) to see how consistent they were (the graders were told to mark each essay pass or fail), they found that the graders were consistent only 67% of the time (i.e. for every two graders that marked the essay a PASS, one grader marked it a FAIL)". Glad CA move to 50% MBE.

JoeSeperac wrote:
Sorry, no clue about the new score system, but there is a great paper on the CA score system from 1977:
http://www.seaphe.org/pdf/past-bar-rese ... ations.pdf

One of the most interesting findings from this paper was that when they gave the same examinee's essay to all the graders (without telling them) to see how consistent they were (the graders were told to mark each essay pass or fail), they found that the graders were consistent only 67% of the time (i.e. for every two graders that marked the essay a PASS, one grader marked it a FAIL).

My personal opinion is that CA will switch to the UBE in a few years (the switch from a 3-day exam to a 2-day exam was rather suggestive of this). The big states are eventually going to all fall in line (e.g. Illinois is currently considering the UBE and will probably be the next big jurisdiction to switch).



Guess luck matters............

User avatar
PersistentAttorney
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Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby PersistentAttorney » Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:16 pm

happyhour1122 wrote:
maxmartin wrote:
PersistentAttorney wrote:I think it has to do with the format and structure of the exam. Some people just cannot reach their full potential in such tight time periods. Some others just don't study as much as needed. And then us foreign takers. Essays are tough to handle in such little time in a second language, and the US is the only country I know that focuses so much in multiple choice exams. Foreigners are not so familiar with that system.


Because essay is too arbitrary. "One of the most interesting findings from this paper was that when they gave the same examinee's essay to all the graders (without telling them) to see how consistent they were (the graders were told to mark each essay pass or fail), they found that the graders were consistent only 67% of the time (i.e. for every two graders that marked the essay a PASS, one grader marked it a FAIL)". Glad CA move to 50% MBE.

JoeSeperac wrote:
Sorry, no clue about the new score system, but there is a great paper on the CA score system from 1977:
http://www.seaphe.org/pdf/past-bar-rese ... ations.pdf

One of the most interesting findings from this paper was that when they gave the same examinee's essay to all the graders (without telling them) to see how consistent they were (the graders were told to mark each essay pass or fail), they found that the graders were consistent only 67% of the time (i.e. for every two graders that marked the essay a PASS, one grader marked it a FAIL).

My personal opinion is that CA will switch to the UBE in a few years (the switch from a 3-day exam to a 2-day exam was rather suggestive of this). The big states are eventually going to all fall in line (e.g. Illinois is currently considering the UBE and will probably be the next big jurisdiction to switch).



Guess luck matters............


Indeed it does. Luck is an important aspect. Is your essay on the first ones in the bunch the grader is grading? Last one? Was the grader tired or fresh? In a forgiving mood? Had an argument with another driver/commuter on his/her way to the office? Did your essay fall after a series of great essays and your deficiencies stood out? The opposite? There's a gazillion of parameters that may affect your outcome.

Even in the MBE there are certain fatigue periods within the morning or afternoon session and the sequence of the questions (as it is not the same for each exam taker to avoid cheating) can also potentially affect performance. For example, what if your sequence of questions is shuffled as such that the most difficult ones fall within the period you are fatigued the most and the sequence of the person seating next to you is such that the same questions are somewhere in the late beginning of the session where performance is at its best? Candidates usually under-perform in the beginning and the end of their sessions because their mind is either not warmed-up or too tired. So sequence can definitely play its part if you are really unlucky. Especially if most difficult ones are one after the other, which can really affect your confidence as you feel like you are struggling with every single one of them and as a consequence you form the impression of being unprepared.

This is why people who really studied and failed by an inch shouldn't lose heart. Many variables in this exam can really shift the balance towards either passing or failing. Have faith in you and it will happen eventually! BE PERSISTENT!

PS: I read the paper and Joe's post. But his deviation (2:1 pass/fail ratio of the same essay between different graders) affects everyone, not just foreigners. Thus it doesn't explain why foreigners under-perform comparing to ABA graduates.

happyhour1122
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Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby happyhour1122 » Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:18 pm

PersistentAttorney wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:
maxmartin wrote:
PersistentAttorney wrote:I think it has to do with the format and structure of the exam. Some people just cannot reach their full potential in such tight time periods. Some others just don't study as much as needed. And then us foreign takers. Essays are tough to handle in such little time in a second language, and the US is the only country I know that focuses so much in multiple choice exams. Foreigners are not so familiar with that system.


Because essay is too arbitrary. "One of the most interesting findings from this paper was that when they gave the same examinee's essay to all the graders (without telling them) to see how consistent they were (the graders were told to mark each essay pass or fail), they found that the graders were consistent only 67% of the time (i.e. for every two graders that marked the essay a PASS, one grader marked it a FAIL)". Glad CA move to 50% MBE.

JoeSeperac wrote:
Sorry, no clue about the new score system, but there is a great paper on the CA score system from 1977:
http://www.seaphe.org/pdf/past-bar-rese ... ations.pdf

One of the most interesting findings from this paper was that when they gave the same examinee's essay to all the graders (without telling them) to see how consistent they were (the graders were told to mark each essay pass or fail), they found that the graders were consistent only 67% of the time (i.e. for every two graders that marked the essay a PASS, one grader marked it a FAIL).

My personal opinion is that CA will switch to the UBE in a few years (the switch from a 3-day exam to a 2-day exam was rather suggestive of this). The big states are eventually going to all fall in line (e.g. Illinois is currently considering the UBE and will probably be the next big jurisdiction to switch).



Guess luck matters............


Indeed it does. Luck is an important aspect. Is your essay on the first ones in the bunch the grader is grading? Last one? Was the grader tired or fresh? In a forgiving mood? Had an argument with another driver/commuter on his/her way to the office? Did your essay fall after a series of great essays and your deficiencies stood out? The opposite? There's a gazillion of parameters that may affect your outcome.

Even in the MBE there are certain fatigue periods within the morning or afternoon session and the sequence of the questions (as it is not the same for each exam taker to avoid cheating) can also potentially affect performance. For example, what if your sequence of questions is shuffled as such that the most difficult ones fall within the period you are fatigued the most and the sequence of the person seating next to you is such that the same questions are somewhere in the late beginning of the session where performance is at its best? Candidates usually under-perform in the beginning and the end of their sessions because their mind is either not warmed-up or too tired. So sequence can definitely play its part if you are really unlucky. Especially if most difficult ones are one after the other, which can really affect your confidence as you feel like you are struggling with every single one of them and as a consequence you form the impression of being unprepared.

This is why people who really studied and failed by an inch shouldn't lose heart. Many variables in this exam can really shift the balance towards either passing or failing. Have faith in you and it will happen eventually! BE PERSISTENT!

PS: I read the paper and Joe's post. But his deviation (2:1 pass/fail ratio of the same essay between different graders) affects everyone, not just foreigners. Thus it doesn't explain why foreigners under-perform comparing to ABA graduates.


true that.

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PersistentAttorney
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Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby PersistentAttorney » Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:28 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
scoomer wrote:
F17fighterpilot wrote:Scoomer: you should pass. No need to worry. As long as you do average or even slighty below average on the MEE and MPT, you'll have well above a 266. Your 148 is awesome, and means you only need a 118 on the rest. Not getting to give you false hope but I'd be super proud of your MBE and dual bar chances.

As for the foreigners comment. I misspoke slightly, I was including them as well as a larger percentage of non-first-time takers as a potential hypothetical as to why F17 might be harder historically. I'm not trying to put you or anyone else in a mold because we all know... It depends.. It depends.. It depends

Best of luck to you


No worries! I was just wondering where the statistics were from and in what pool. I understand it IS hard for a lot of foreign takers because of the language and format. Thanks for clarifying the data, and also for your encouragement. I do hope you're right. :)

I hope you and everyone waiting on results pass too! Either way it won't be the end of the world. We are going to keep trying till we succeed. :)
Good luck!


You should pass. Based on your scaled MBE score of 148, your estimated raw MBE score was about 125/175 correct. This is based on the 2013 New York MBE raw/scaled conversion (which is the most recent time an MBE raw/scaled conversion was released). This means you answered about 71.4% of the graded MBE questions correctly. Based on the Feb 2016 national statistics on the MBE (this year's statistics will not be released until next year), this places you in the 81.4% percentile for the MBE. This means that only 18.6% of Feb 2016 examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 148. With your scaled MBE score of 148, you would have needed a written score of 118 to pass the exam with a total score of 266. Assuming again that the MEE/MPT percentiles follow the Feb 2016 national MBE statistics, scoring a 118 Scaled MEE/MPT score would place you in the 14% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning you can do worse than 85% of Feb 2016 examinees nationwide on the MEE/MPT and still pass).


Your input is always helpful Joe. I would also like to thank you for the feedback you sent me when I forwarded you my July results. Really helped me understand what I did wrong.

I have been thinking lately of a parameter that may be going unnoticed in assessing foreign takers' chances of success (or performance in general). I believe that foreigners educated in common law jurisdictions like England or Australia MUST have better chances or perform better statistically. Have you noticed such a difference among common-law educated foreign takers and civil law foreign takers? If you keep such stats you could incorporate them in your Seperac UBE Score Estimator. Btw if you put in the calculator that you are a foreign-educated repeater you fail no matter what... At least statistically we have a 20% chance.

jir92
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Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2016 12:22 am

Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby jir92 » Fri Apr 21, 2017 1:01 pm

So for those who "voted" for Apr. 24, are we thinking they email us on Apr. 24 and official release is Apr. 25?

happyhour1122
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Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby happyhour1122 » Fri Apr 21, 2017 1:09 pm

jir92 wrote:So for those who "voted" for Apr. 24, are we thinking they email us on Apr. 24 and official release is Apr. 25?


That is correct.

JoeSeperac
Posts: 57
Joined: Thu Feb 16, 2017 3:30 pm

Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby JoeSeperac » Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:49 pm

PersistentAttorney wrote:I have been thinking lately of a parameter that may be going unnoticed in assessing foreign takers' chances of success (or performance in general). I believe that foreigners educated in common law jurisdictions like England or Australia MUST have better chances or perform better statistically. Have you noticed such a difference among common-law educated foreign takers and civil law foreign takers? If you keep such stats you could incorporate them in your Seperac UBE Score Estimator. Btw if you put in the calculator that you are a foreign-educated repeater you fail no matter what... At least statistically we have a 20% chance.


Thanks for noticing the calculator problem - I am aware of it, but it is not easy to adjust because it is based on mean scores and the demographics for foreign examinee repeaters always have below passing mean scores. With domestic examinees, I can adjust the mean based on LSAT/LGPA/UPGA, but for foreign examinees, the only adjustment is with the MPRE. Once I get feedback on the calculator (for example, how accurate are the weights I apply to MPRE/LSAT/LPGA), I expect the second iteration to be better. In the meantime, I am going to put a warning that it is not as accurate for foreign examinees.

Surprisingly, foreign examinees from Civil Law jurisdictions have a higher pass rate than foreign examinees from Common Law jurisdictions. Based on 2012-2013 data, I determined that the pass rate for Civil Law examinees was 36.5% while the pass rate for Common Law examinees was 31.5% (based on countries with more than 100 examinees taking the exam annually). If I had to guess why, I would say it is because Civil Law examinees are better multiple choice test-takers.

See http://seperac.com/pdf/NY%20Bar%20Exam% ... 202013.pdf and http://www.ncbex.org/assets/media_files ... ridged.pdf

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PersistentAttorney
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Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby PersistentAttorney » Sat Apr 22, 2017 12:28 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
PersistentAttorney wrote:I have been thinking lately of a parameter that may be going unnoticed in assessing foreign takers' chances of success (or performance in general). I believe that foreigners educated in common law jurisdictions like England or Australia MUST have better chances or perform better statistically. Have you noticed such a difference among common-law educated foreign takers and civil law foreign takers? If you keep such stats you could incorporate them in your Seperac UBE Score Estimator. Btw if you put in the calculator that you are a foreign-educated repeater you fail no matter what... At least statistically we have a 20% chance.


Thanks for noticing the calculator problem - I am aware of it, but it is not easy to adjust because it is based on mean scores and the demographics for foreign examinee repeaters always have below passing mean scores. With domestic examinees, I can adjust the mean based on LSAT/LGPA/UPGA, but for foreign examinees, the only adjustment is with the MPRE. Once I get feedback on the calculator (for example, how accurate are the weights I apply to MPRE/LSAT/LPGA), I expect the second iteration to be better. In the meantime, I am going to put a warning that it is not as accurate for foreign examinees.

Surprisingly, foreign examinees from Civil Law jurisdictions have a higher pass rate than foreign examinees from Common Law jurisdictions. Based on 2012-2013 data, I determined that the pass rate for Civil Law examinees was 36.5% while the pass rate for Common Law examinees was 31.5% (based on countries with more than 100 examinees taking the exam annually). If I had to guess why, I would say it is because Civil Law examinees are better multiple choice test-takers.

See http://seperac.com/pdf/NY%20Bar%20Exam% ... 202013.pdf and http://www.ncbex.org/assets/media_files ... ridged.pdf



Very interesting. I'm both civil and common law educated and (as far as I know) civil law jurisdictions (Greece, Germany, France) don't use multiple choice testing but mainly essay testing. Maybe the US LLM prerequisite for civil law educated applicants has some effect as it somehow introduces foreign educated test takers to the US system and approach. It is also one thing studying on US soil among other candidates and another thing studying alone a few thousand miles away. Common law educated takers don't need a US LLM so the bar review courses is the only friction with the US system. They also have to travel long distances and change many time zones right before the exam. This takes its toll too.

Nevertheless, common law is common law and it really helped me as I never scored less than 100/200 raw even before any studying for the bar. Maybe common law educated takers underestimate the differences due to that.

Just hoping that my extra prep was enough to add the remaining points necessary

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Re: FEB 2017 NEW YORK BAR RESULTS [VOTE AGAIN]

Postby IMA* » Sat Apr 22, 2017 3:49 pm

Would anyone be willing to sell their Barbri New York books and notes? I can't afford $3000 for Barbri courses and am looking to buy the books. Since exam results are expected within the next few days, I hope I'll hear back from someone soon.




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