2017 Results Thread - February Exam

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nuri

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby nuri » Thu Mar 30, 2017 4:27 pm

How do we know these statistics?

Um... I dont think i can be under control anymore. I am on panic mode*17

happyhour1122 wrote:
PrayingToTheBarGods wrote:
nuri wrote:WOW! only 55%? GREAT, I can wait for my results now

virgoyum wrote:
umichman wrote:
virgoyum wrote:Illinois takers, here is the link to the percentile breakdown: https://www.ilbaradmissions.org/feb-201 ... ent-charts

I replaced the score report from last year with 2017 and removed 2016. Historically it is released the day before but I don't know if they updated IBAB yet.

I don't know if this is good for us or just bad overrall but the MBE score went down. Highest scaled is 165.


Does that mean that there was aroudn a 55 percent pass rate?


Yeah thereabouts...



55%?!!??!!! F that!!!!! My ass failed then!!! :(


NY was less. Its ok. Lets calm down.

maxmartin

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby maxmartin » Thu Mar 30, 2017 4:27 pm

happyhour1122 wrote:55% passage rate???????? holly ..


It is too early to say, but I do think 25 questions has a detrimental impact on MBE score.

AP5623

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby AP5623 » Thu Mar 30, 2017 4:28 pm

I only had to take the MBE and this is terrifying me to even see the scores in my state

umichman

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby umichman » Thu Mar 30, 2017 4:30 pm

Do we know what the February 2016 results were? Not so fair to compaire it to July results

HiOCEAN

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby HiOCEAN » Thu Mar 30, 2017 4:34 pm

How did u calculate a 55% pass rate. Really feeling sick now. :|

umichman

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby umichman » Thu Mar 30, 2017 4:37 pm

54th percentile is 270, 40th percentile is 260. Passing score is 266. Therefore it has to be somewhere between a 45 percent and 60 percent pass rate. I aimed in the middle. If my assumptions/thinking is logically correct.

maxmartin

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby maxmartin » Thu Mar 30, 2017 4:38 pm

umichman wrote:Do we know what the February 2016 results were? Not so fair to compaire it to July results


A comprehensive data map.

http://deceptivelyblonde.weebly.com/bar ... stics.html

happyhour1122

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby happyhour1122 » Thu Mar 30, 2017 4:38 pm

i don't think its too off from Feb exam scores isn't it? nm...its really low

umichman

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby umichman » Thu Mar 30, 2017 4:40 pm

happyhour1122 wrote:i don't think its too off from Feb exam scores isn't it?


probably about an 8 percent drop

maxmartin

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby maxmartin » Thu Mar 30, 2017 4:44 pm

happyhour1122 wrote:i don't think its too off from Feb exam scores isn't it? nm...its really low


It looks like it is going to be a massacre for Feb takers. Remember Feb 2016 is already historical low passing rate for many states. If Feb 2017 is going to be 5-10% lower than Feb 2016, oh well, FML.

http://deceptivelyblonde.weebly.com/bar ... stics.html

happyhour1122

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby happyhour1122 » Thu Mar 30, 2017 4:53 pm

maxmartin wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:i don't think its too off from Feb exam scores isn't it? nm...its really low


It looks like it is going to be a massacre for Feb takers. Remember Feb 2016 is already historical low passing rate for many states. If Feb 2017 is going to be 5-10% lower than Feb 2016, oh well, FML.

http://deceptivelyblonde.weebly.com/bar ... stics.html



anything more than 5% drop is huge..................
Iowa wasn't that different........
this is freaking everyone out. WTF

happyhour1122

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby happyhour1122 » Thu Mar 30, 2017 4:57 pm

maxmartin wrote:
umichman wrote:Do we know what the February 2016 results were? Not so fair to compaire it to July results


A comprehensive data map.

http://deceptivelyblonde.weebly.com/bar ... stics.html



this doesn't seem right.
NY for july 2016 was not "July 2016 ~ 64%"

maxmartin

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby maxmartin » Thu Mar 30, 2017 4:59 pm

happyhour1122 wrote:
maxmartin wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:i don't think its too off from Feb exam scores isn't it? nm...its really low


It looks like it is going to be a massacre for Feb takers. Remember Feb 2016 is already historical low passing rate for many states. If Feb 2017 is going to be 5-10% lower than Feb 2016, oh well, FML.

http://deceptivelyblonde.weebly.com/bar ... stics.html



anything more than 5% drop is huge..................
Iowa wasn't that different........
this is freaking everyone out. WTF


Only 40 first time takers for IOWA. The sample is just too small to mean anything.

umichman

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby umichman » Thu Mar 30, 2017 5:06 pm

happyhour1122 wrote:
maxmartin wrote:
umichman wrote:Do we know what the February 2016 results were? Not so fair to compaire it to July results


A comprehensive data map.

http://deceptivelyblonde.weebly.com/bar ... stics.html



NY for july 2016 was not "July 2016 ~ 64%"


What do you mean?

nuri

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby nuri » Thu Mar 30, 2017 5:07 pm

Yes, I like these kind of messages, please say more positive things. I don't know if I can wait 24 more hours!

I agree with someone that wrote previously in one of these forums: "bar exam may be the cause of my death" such panic attacks are unnecessary!"

maxmartin wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:
maxmartin wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:i don't think its too off from Feb exam scores isn't it? nm...its really low


It looks like it is going to be a massacre for Feb takers. Remember Feb 2016 is already historical low passing rate for many states. If Feb 2017 is going to be 5-10% lower than Feb 2016, oh well, FML.

http://deceptivelyblonde.weebly.com/bar ... stics.html



anything more than 5% drop is huge..................
Iowa wasn't that different........
this is freaking everyone out. WTF


Only 40 first time takers for IOWA. The sample is just too small to mean anything.

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virgoyum

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby virgoyum » Thu Mar 30, 2017 5:35 pm

anandamide wrote:
virgoyum wrote:Anyone planning on treating themselves to something nice/splurging if they get some good news? I might splurge on a ridiculously priced designer purse or get a pair of Louboutins I've been eyeing.

What are your plans for rewarding yourself?



i like your style. maybe a new car.



Ooh fancy. What are you thinking of getting?

coffee11

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby coffee11 » Thu Mar 30, 2017 5:45 pm

virgoyum wrote:Anyone planning on treating themselves to something nice/splurging if they get some good news? I might splurge on a ridiculously priced designer purse or get a pair of Louboutins I've been eyeing.

What are your plans for rewarding yourself?


A really decadent long lunch at Balthazar.

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virgoyum

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby virgoyum » Thu Mar 30, 2017 5:45 pm

nuri wrote:How do we know these statistics?

Um... I dont think i can be under control anymore. I am on panic mode*17

happyhour1122 wrote:
PrayingToTheBarGods wrote:
nuri wrote:WOW! only 55%? GREAT, I can wait for my results now

virgoyum wrote:
umichman wrote:
virgoyum wrote:Illinois takers, here is the link to the percentile breakdown: https://www.ilbaradmissions.org/feb-201 ... ent-charts

I replaced the score report from last year with 2017 and removed 2016. Historically it is released the day before but I don't know if they updated IBAB yet.

I don't know if this is good for us or just bad overrall but the MBE score went down. Highest scaled is 165.


Does that mean that there was aroudn a 55 percent pass rate?


Yeah thereabouts...



55%?!!??!!! F that!!!!! My ass failed then!!! :(


NY was less. Its ok. Lets calm down.


We know at least 40% failed at 260 scaled. So 60% of testers scored 261 or above. There is a 4 point differential 266 and 270. It could be as low as 54% percent passage rate but not likely since you need 266 not 270. The rate will sit anywhere between 54 and 60%

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virgoyum

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby virgoyum » Thu Mar 30, 2017 5:49 pm

umichman wrote:Do we know what the February 2016 results were? Not so fair to compaire it to July results


They took them down or they are unavailable for the time being.

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PrayingToTheBarGods

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby PrayingToTheBarGods » Thu Mar 30, 2017 6:55 pm

FML ya'll... Virgoyum I hope ur playing us all here....

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virgoyum

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby virgoyum » Thu Mar 30, 2017 7:06 pm

PrayingToTheBarGods wrote:FML ya'll... Virgoyum I hope ur playing us all here....


LMAO! Ain't nobody got time for that. I am in the same boat. Less than 24 hours. FML.

Skybloo

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby Skybloo » Thu Mar 30, 2017 7:55 pm

If I am not mistaken, just a couple of years ago here in Illinois, the pass rate was about 80%. It seems like we are catching the exam in a transition phase where the Illinois Bar is trying to become more exclusive. Recently, the score went from 264/400 to 266 and next summer to 268. If that pass rate, mid 50's, is accurate, seems they are also scoring more stringently, too!

I hope that we all get good news here in Illinois tomorrow. For those of us who don't, it will be a painful, but interesting analysis of our own exams to try to find out what the devil is going on for the pass rate to dip so much, and what it will take to meet that threshold next time.

I hope to be celebrating next week with all of you, but if not then I am going to get planning for July early. It will be an embarrassment, of course. But I conversed with two 3rd time takers from my school in prep for the exam last summer who presented themselves in a very dignified way that I really appreciated!

It is what it is now. Just waiting for the verdict! :)

Skybloo

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby Skybloo » Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:04 pm

virgoyum wrote:
umichman wrote:Do we know what the February 2016 results were? Not so fair to compaire it to July results


They took them down or they are unavailable for the time being.


Right here:
https://www.ilbaradmissions.org/july201 ... ent-charts

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ndbigdave

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby ndbigdave » Thu Mar 30, 2017 11:06 pm

Skybloo wrote:
virgoyum wrote:
umichman wrote:Do we know what the February 2016 results were? Not so fair to compaire it to July results


They took them down or they are unavailable for the time being.


Right here:
https://www.ilbaradmissions.org/july201 ... ent-charts


Sadly that is July results, I think February would be more illustrative and useful however I actually feel (A LITTLE) better now comparing the two sets of data.

What is important to note is that the goal here is to score 266. These sets of data merely show a birds eye view of ALL TAKERS for Illinois in February 2017 and July 2016. You have to remember and keep in mind general, traditional assumptions when viewing these statistics. While painting with broad brushes here (dont be offended if I am a little to the point here)...

Traditionally speaking, February is comprised of repeat takers and first time takers who did not take the traditional July exam, the reasons for this are many, but the usual reasons are because the first time takers were nontraditional students from night or part-time programs or who ended up extending their law school program. Due to this general understanding of the group the scores and pass rates are routinely lower in February. Further, there are fewer testers in February so swings in statistics can be more profound. Ultimately and broadly speaking, February takers are of "less quality" than July takers on a whole.

When comparing July 2016 to February 2017 one need only look at the 270 score and 260 score as evidence. Those who scored a 270 (barely passing) in July were at the 34th percentile, meanwhile those who achieved the same score in February were at the 54th percentile. THis logically makes sense if you follow the assumptions from above, that February testers are "generally" of lesser quality, A 270 in February looks far stronger now than it does in July - which makes 100% sense as your score would be compared to more traditional test takers.

My evidence:
July 2016: https://www.ilbaradmissions.org/july2016-percentile-equivalent-charts
February 2017: https://www.ilbaradmissions.org/feb-2017-percentile-equivalent-charts

Now, saying all of that, it does still appear that this will be a historically low pass rate for Illinois. From doing my own basic math a 266 (passing) will place you at the 48.4th percentile (as it is likely rounded down, just call it 48th percentile. Meaning that 52% of takers (total) passed. Historically there is a gap of 8 to 6 points separating the "first time takers" pass rate and the "total" pass rate, meaning A conservative guess is that those first time takers passed at approximately a 58% rate meaning repeat takers hovered somewhere around 48% passing (there are less repeat takers traditionally so I wont take a full 6 point swing DOWN). I am basing this on page 30 of this chart from NCBE: http://www.ncbex.org/pdfviewer/?file=%2Fdmsdocument%2F205

Do I think the new testing with 25 "practice" questions played a role in this lower pass rate? I do, but not in the way you may first think. I do personally believe that the NCBE knows what they are doing with the scaling of their test, but what may throw things off is this being the FIRST set with only 175 scoreable questions and then Illinois Reliance to adjust their scores to scale similarly to the MBE - so any quirks with the NCBE scaling will throw the IL essay scoring off a bit too. For those interested in reading a bit more about how (generally) the MBE is scored/scaled I reccoment the following piece that does a good job of explaining (in admittedly simplified ways) how each different MBE is scored so that each test is "weighted" the same and there is no such thing as one MBE being "harder" than another: http://excessofdemocracy.com/blog/2015/9/no-the-mbe-was-not-harder-than-usual

This all being said. Take a deep breath, less than 24 hours until you actually know something definititive. I wish everyone luck, I mean absolutely nothing negative about anyone who took the February bar (of which I am one) and I am anxiously waiting with all of you.

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virgoyum

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby virgoyum » Thu Mar 30, 2017 11:33 pm

Skybloo wrote:
virgoyum wrote:
umichman wrote:Do we know what the February 2016 results were? Not so fair to compaire it to July results


They took them down or they are unavailable for the time being.


Right here:
https://www.ilbaradmissions.org/july201 ... ent-charts


That's July's ... Referring to Feb. 2016. It was available yesterday and taken down today.



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