2017 Results Thread - February Exam

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virgoyum

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby virgoyum » Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:54 pm

I hate to freak anyone out but North Carolina's pass rate has been released. Overall 44.4%.

See here: http://abovethelaw.com/2017/03/law-scho ... ates-ever/
Last edited by virgoyum on Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby ur_hero » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:01 pm

virgoyum wrote:I hate to freak anyone out but North Carolina's pass rate has been released. First time takers 25% pass rate, overall 44.4%.

See here: http://abovethelaw.com/2017/03/law-scho ... ates-ever/


Note that the first-time pass rate of 25% is for a particular school that is currently on probation w/ the ABA had was booted out of the Federal student loan program.

Still....44% statewide. Almost as bad as California.

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virgoyum

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby virgoyum » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:10 pm

ur_hero wrote:
virgoyum wrote:I hate to freak anyone out but North Carolina's pass rate has been released. Overall 44.4%.

See here: http://abovethelaw.com/2017/03/law-scho ... ates-ever/


Note that the first-time pass rate of 25% is for a particular school that is currently on probation w/ the ABA had was booted out of the Federal student loan program.

Still....44% statewide. Almost as bad as California.



I totally skipped to the chart. The 44% is scary and it's only for first time takers. Overall it's roughly 37%.
'...we know that the February 2017 passage rate for first-time takers was 44.44 percent, while the overall passage rate was 36.73 percent.'

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby ndbigdave » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:14 pm

virgoyum wrote:I hate to freak anyone out but North Carolina's pass rate has been released. First time takers 25% pass rate, overall 44.4%.

See here: http://abovethelaw.com/2017/03/law-scho ... ates-ever/



That is...horrific. However, as another poster has already noted - take the results with a HUGE grain of salt.

For instance, Elon had only 7 first time takers, though it is unnerving to see 0.00% pass, that is not a representative sample. Further, the school with the apparent largest base of students taking the test (Charlotte) is a school on ABA probation that has been a sinking ship over the last few years and clearly has massive problems.

Id be more curious to see MBE scores for the state as opposed to just raw passage rates to get an idea of how February 2017 compares to July and February of 2016 for sake of "toughness" and to see how overall scores fared.

North Carolina just sounds brutal for February takers while looking at past results.

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby happyhour1122 » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:15 pm

coffee11 wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:I just re-read released NY answer model (I really have nothing better to do).
I can't believe they wrote that in 3 hours. Especially the MPT from july 2016. Its really good.


Do you mind posting the link? I'm in the same boat...it's definitely unhealthy but I'm looking for ways to dwell on results



https://www.nybarexam.org/ExamQuestions ... stions.htm

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby happyhour1122 » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:18 pm

So lets talk about why Feb exam passage rate is so low.

People say the pool is different, which I agree. Those that take Feb exam are usually in different situations. (Working, money, etc). Do you guys really think this is the only reason? From my experience, I don't think Feb exam was far different from July exam. But I did hear that the curve was more difficult... so,... why is it that retakers could fail again?

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby ndbigdave » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:27 pm

happyhour1122 wrote:So lets talk about why Feb exam passage rate is so low.

People say the pool is different, which I agree. Those that take Feb exam are usually in different situations. (Working, money, etc). Do you guys really think this is the only reason? From my experience, I don't think Feb exam was far different from July exam. But I did hear that the curve was more difficult...


I don't think the actual test is actually any different (be it harder/easier). The pool taking the exam is certainly different. In February there is a larger portion of re-takers and then those first-time takers that fall into "non-traditional" students who took more than 3 years to complete the course work and are usually night/part-time students (which usually has a higher rate of students with families, work and may be less qualified students).

When you mix the composition of first time takers as "generally" being lesser than first-time July takers with the higher (proportionally) of re-takers the overall quality is "usually" down in February.

How a "curve" is applied to these results is beyond me, but the above information (speaking in general terms) is why February results are usually lower.

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby virgoyum » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:35 pm

ndbigdave wrote:
virgoyum wrote:I hate to freak anyone out but North Carolina's pass rate has been released. First time takers 25% pass rate, overall 44.4%.

See here: http://abovethelaw.com/2017/03/law-scho ... ates-ever/



That is...horrific. However, as another poster has already noted - take the results with a HUGE grain of salt.

For instance, Elon had only 7 first time takers, though it is unnerving to see 0.00% pass, that is not a representative sample. Further, the school with the apparent largest base of students taking the test (Charlotte) is a school on ABA probation that has been a sinking ship over the last few years and clearly has massive problems.

Id be more curious to see MBE scores for the state as opposed to just raw passage rates to get an idea of how February 2017 compares to July and February of 2016 for sake of "toughness" and to see how overall scores fared.

North Carolina just sounds brutal for February takers while looking at past results.


I think the article was implying that Elon let the cat out of the bag with their letter by including state rates. Either way those numbers looked cooked because I went to NCBE and the pass rate is worse. For example article says the pass rate was 51% in February but according NCBE, it was actually 43%. Refer to page 16:

http://www.ncbex.org/pdfviewer/?file=%2 ... ment%2F205
Last edited by virgoyum on Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby thewait17 » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:36 pm

ndbigdave wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:So lets talk about why Feb exam passage rate is so low.

People say the pool is different, which I agree. Those that take Feb exam are usually in different situations. (Working, money, etc). Do you guys really think this is the only reason? From my experience, I don't think Feb exam was far different from July exam. But I did hear that the curve was more difficult...


I don't think the actual test is actually any different (be it harder/easier). The pool taking the exam is certainly different. In February there is a larger portion of re-takers and then those first-time takers that fall into "non-traditional" students who took more than 3 years to complete the course work and are usually night/part-time students (which usually has a higher rate of students with families, work and may be less qualified students).

When you mix the composition of first time takers as "generally" being lesser than first-time July takers with the higher (proportionally) of re-takers the overall quality is "usually" down in February.

How a "curve" is applied to these results is beyond me, but the above information (speaking in general terms) is why February results are usually lower.


So, do you think first-time takers in Feb have an advantage over the re-takers? I always thought it would be the other way around, as they know what to expect, more time with the material, etc. Curious as to what others think about that. I've always wondered why "re-takers have a higher chance of failing again" as some say.

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby HiOCEAN » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:37 pm

Frankly, a 44% pass rate is sad. What's going on here? If you went to a tier 4 law school, you should be able to practice "tier 4" law (and I say this with all due respect) in a small NC town, without this stupid test being a barrier. Seriously it's ridiculous. I sense some racism here (barriers to entry).

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby happyhour1122 » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:38 pm

ndbigdave wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:So lets talk about why Feb exam passage rate is so low.

People say the pool is different, which I agree. Those that take Feb exam are usually in different situations. (Working, money, etc). Do you guys really think this is the only reason? From my experience, I don't think Feb exam was far different from July exam. But I did hear that the curve was more difficult...


I don't think the actual test is actually any different (be it harder/easier). The pool taking the exam is certainly different. In February there is a larger portion of re-takers and then those first-time takers that fall into "non-traditional" students who took more than 3 years to complete the course work and are usually night/part-time students (which usually has a higher rate of students with families, work and may be less qualified students).

When you mix the composition of first time takers as "generally" being lesser than first-time July takers with the higher (proportionally) of re-takers the overall quality is "usually" down in February.

How a "curve" is applied to these results is beyond me, but the above information (speaking in general terms) is why February results are usually lower.



Totally agreed. But then, why is it that retakers have higher chance of failing again? (or low passage rate?)_

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby maxmartin » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:40 pm

That is extremely low pass rate for Feb NC. Is it because the new MBE scoring is significantly more difficult than old format? It is so interesting to see any UBE pass rate.

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby HerptonBurpton » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:41 pm

happyhour1122 wrote:
ndbigdave wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:So lets talk about why Feb exam passage rate is so low.

People say the pool is different, which I agree. Those that take Feb exam are usually in different situations. (Working, money, etc). Do you guys really think this is the only reason? From my experience, I don't think Feb exam was far different from July exam. But I did hear that the curve was more difficult...


I don't think the actual test is actually any different (be it harder/easier). The pool taking the exam is certainly different. In February there is a larger portion of re-takers and then those first-time takers that fall into "non-traditional" students who took more than 3 years to complete the course work and are usually night/part-time students (which usually has a higher rate of students with families, work and may be less qualified students).

When you mix the composition of first time takers as "generally" being lesser than first-time July takers with the higher (proportionally) of re-takers the overall quality is "usually" down in February.

How a "curve" is applied to these results is beyond me, but the above information (speaking in general terms) is why February results are usually lower.



Totally agreed. But then, why is it that retakers have higher chance of failing again? (or low passage rate?)_


It's not just the bar exam - retakers of any standardized test are statistically more likely to fail subsequent administrations of the same test. Since the proportion of repeaters is higher in february, we naturally see a lower pass rate.

The real question is why the first time pass % is only at 44%

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby happyhour1122 » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:45 pm

:oops: :oops: :oops: :oops:
i'm a retaker...NY retakers passage rate is approx 44%....this is scary.

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby virgoyum » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:46 pm

HerptonBurpton wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:
ndbigdave wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:So lets talk about why Feb exam passage rate is so low.

People say the pool is different, which I agree. Those that take Feb exam are usually in different situations. (Working, money, etc). Do you guys really think this is the only reason? From my experience, I don't think Feb exam was far different from July exam. But I did hear that the curve was more difficult...


I don't think the actual test is actually any different (be it harder/easier). The pool taking the exam is certainly different. In February there is a larger portion of re-takers and then those first-time takers that fall into "non-traditional" students who took more than 3 years to complete the course work and are usually night/part-time students (which usually has a higher rate of students with families, work and may be less qualified students).

When you mix the composition of first time takers as "generally" being lesser than first-time July takers with the higher (proportionally) of re-takers the overall quality is "usually" down in February.

How a "curve" is applied to these results is beyond me, but the above information (speaking in general terms) is why February results are usually lower.



Totally agreed. But then, why is it that retakers have higher chance of failing again? (or low passage rate?)_


It's not just the bar exam - retakers of any standardized test are statistically more likely to fail subsequent administrations of the same test. Since the proportion of repeaters is higher in february, we naturally see a lower pass rate.

The real question is why the first time pass % is only at 44%
If that is even the real rate lol. If it is, then it actually increased 1% for first timers since last February.

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby Chevron Deference » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:49 pm

This is a good explanation on the MBE Scaled Scores

http://www.virginiabartutor.com/2013/08 ... e.html?m=1


I don't want us to freak out too much.

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby LMMadison » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:49 pm

virgoyum wrote:If it is, then it actually increased 1% for first timers since last February.

Selfishly, that makes me feel a little better about the marginal effect of the MBE change (10 >>> 25 experimental) materially effecting pass rates year-over-year in other jx's.

But much empathy for those in NC (re the overall rate).

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby Chevron Deference » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:52 pm

LMMadison wrote:
virgoyum wrote:If it is, then it actually increased 1% for first timers since last February.

Selfishly, that makes me feel a little better about the marginal effect of the MBE change (10 >>> 25 experimental) materially effecting pass rates year-over-year in other jx's.

But much empathy for those in NC (re the overall rate).



Based off pass test results NC seems like a historically hard exam.

http://www.ncbex.org/pdfviewer/?file=%2 ... ment%2F205

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby HerptonBurpton » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:53 pm

virgoyum wrote:
HerptonBurpton wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:
ndbigdave wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:So lets talk about why Feb exam passage rate is so low.

People say the pool is different, which I agree. Those that take Feb exam are usually in different situations. (Working, money, etc). Do you guys really think this is the only reason? From my experience, I don't think Feb exam was far different from July exam. But I did hear that the curve was more difficult...


I don't think the actual test is actually any different (be it harder/easier). The pool taking the exam is certainly different. In February there is a larger portion of re-takers and then those first-time takers that fall into "non-traditional" students who took more than 3 years to complete the course work and are usually night/part-time students (which usually has a higher rate of students with families, work and may be less qualified students).

When you mix the composition of first time takers as "generally" being lesser than first-time July takers with the higher (proportionally) of re-takers the overall quality is "usually" down in February.

How a "curve" is applied to these results is beyond me, but the above information (speaking in general terms) is why February results are usually lower.



Totally agreed. But then, why is it that retakers have higher chance of failing again? (or low passage rate?)_


It's not just the bar exam - retakers of any standardized test are statistically more likely to fail subsequent administrations of the same test. Since the proportion of repeaters is higher in february, we naturally see a lower pass rate.

The real question is why the first time pass % is only at 44%
If that is even the real rate lol. If it is, then it actually increased 1% for first timers since last February.


Based on the NCBEX report, I believe the total pass rate last February was 43%. First timers had a 51% pass rate.

Either way, good luck everybody

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby ndbigdave » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:54 pm

happyhour1122 wrote:

Totally agreed. But then, why is it that retakers have higher chance of failing again? (or low passage rate?)_


I think re-takers struggling (be it in Feb or July) is a disconnect between conventional wisdom and reality.

What do I mean by that?

It has already been mentioned in this thread, but re-takers have the advantage of seeing the material once, studying a second time, learning from mistakes etc. However I think in reality, that most (not all by any means) give the test their "best shot" the first time around and generally score where their skills and knowledge allow them to score. Now, there can be other factors (bad luck with essay topics comes first to mind) that can change from test to test, but if you are a poor writer or poor on multiple choice the amount of work to pick up the requisite points is (often times) beyond what the average student is willing to invest. Therefore without a large change in studying habits and improving skills (writing or multiple choice) the results are likely to be the same. Further, I think many (again not all) re-takers BANK on these perceived "advantages" and DONT put in the big changes necessary to move the needle as far as necessary. For those re-takers who DO pass I have to think they fall into one of two categories:

#1 - They didnt take the first test as seriously as they should have and DID the second time.

#2 - They did very little different but were within "passing range" already and a few breaks with guesses on the MBE or essays pushed them over.

There are no doubt individual situations that differ, but at the core if you didn't pass it can come down to not prepping enough, not having the requisite ability (writing or multiple choice) or just flatly not having the aptitude.

Without having ANY knowledge for how curves are set, I dont think it works in a traditional sense, where the bar examiners have a threshold of passers they want to see so they therefore adjust the points enough to get that threshold. Meaning, traditionally IL has a pass-rate somewhere in the 70s% - I dont think the IL bar examiners look at the scores and say - "wow, to get to 70+% we need to give everyone 10 scaled points" therefore being in February with "generally" weaker test takers doesnt give the advantage one might expect. Though I suppose on essays one would think competing against worse test takers would/could make marginally better writing look even "better" then when competing with other good/adequate writers. I say this because essays are the only "subjective" portion on the test.

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby virgoyum » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:58 pm

HerptonBurpton wrote:
virgoyum wrote:
HerptonBurpton wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:
ndbigdave wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:So lets talk about why Feb exam passage rate is so low.

People say the pool is different, which I agree. Those that take Feb exam are usually in different situations. (Working, money, etc). Do you guys really think this is the only reason? From my experience, I don't think Feb exam was far different from July exam. But I did hear that the curve was more difficult...


I don't think the actual test is actually any different (be it harder/easier). The pool taking the exam is certainly different. In February there is a larger portion of re-takers and then those first-time takers that fall into "non-traditional" students who took more than 3 years to complete the course work and are usually night/part-time students (which usually has a higher rate of students with families, work and may be less qualified students).

When you mix the composition of first time takers as "generally" being lesser than first-time July takers with the higher (proportionally) of re-takers the overall quality is "usually" down in February.

How a "curve" is applied to these results is beyond me, but the above information (speaking in general terms) is why February results are usually lower.



Totally agreed. But then, why is it that retakers have higher chance of failing again? (or low passage rate?)_


It's not just the bar exam - retakers of any standardized test are statistically more likely to fail subsequent administrations of the same test. Since the proportion of repeaters is higher in february, we naturally see a lower pass rate.

The real question is why the first time pass % is only at 44%
If that is even the real rate lol. If it is, then it actually increased 1% for first timers since last February.


Based on the NCBEX report, I believe the total pass rate last February was 43%. First timers had a 51% pass rate.

Either way, good luck everybody


Yup you're right. So it dropped 7%. That's scary. I'm really worried that the reduced # of graded questions has a part to play.

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby happyhour1122 » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:58 pm

ndbigdave wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:

Totally agreed. But then, why is it that retakers have higher chance of failing again? (or low passage rate?)_


I think re-takers struggling (be it in Feb or July) is a disconnect between conventional wisdom and reality.

What do I mean by that?

It has already been mentioned in this thread, but re-takers have the advantage of seeing the material once, studying a second time, learning from mistakes etc. However I think in reality, that most (not all by any means) give the test their "best shot" the first time around and generally score where their skills and knowledge allow them to score. Now, there can be other factors (bad luck with essay topics comes first to mind) that can change from test to test, but if you are a poor writer or poor on multiple choice the amount of work to pick up the requisite points is (often times) beyond what the average student is willing to invest. Therefore without a large change in studying habits and improving skills (writing or multiple choice) the results are likely to be the same. Further, I think many (again not all) re-takers BANK on these perceived "advantages" and DONT put in the big changes necessary to move the needle as far as necessary. For those re-takers who DO pass I have to think they fall into one of two categories:

#1 - They didnt take the first test as seriously as they should have and DID the second time.

#2 - They did very little different but were within "passing range" already and a few breaks with guesses on the MBE or essays pushed them over.

There are no doubt individual situations that differ, but at the core if you didn't pass it can come down to not prepping enough, not having the requisite ability (writing or multiple choice) or just flatly not having the aptitude.

Without having ANY knowledge for how curves are set, I dont think it works in a traditional sense, where the bar examiners have a threshold of passers they want to see so they therefore adjust the points enough to get that threshold. Meaning, traditionally IL has a pass-rate somewhere in the 70s% - I dont think the IL bar examiners look at the scores and say - "wow, to get to 70+% we need to give everyone 10 scaled points" therefore being in February with "generally" weaker test takers doesnt give the advantage one might expect. Though I suppose on essays one would think competing against worse test takers would/could make marginally better writing look even "better" then when competing with other good/adequate writers. I say this because essays are the only "subjective" portion on the test.


I took both exams seriously
I did very different this time

Hopefully I passed.

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby ndbigdave » Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:05 pm

happyhour1122 wrote:
I took both exams seriously
I did very different this time

Hopefully I passed.


I did not mean to sound insulting at all, just a general observation and attempted explanation to the question posted.

Though your statement begs my question - you said you did "very different" this time, but then mention you hopefully passed. How do you know you did very different? Gut feeling? Perhaps you fell into my second group, someone who was already in the passing range but needed some luck or essays to fall their way this time? Obviously I dont know your first scores, the new scores and what (if anything) you did differently to prepare.

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby happyhour1122 » Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:09 pm

ndbigdave wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:
I took both exams seriously
I did very different this time

Hopefully I passed.


I did not mean to sound insulting at all, just a general observation and attempted explanation to the question posted.

Though your statement begs my question - you said you did "very different" this time, but then mention you hopefully passed. How do you know you did very different? Gut feeling? Perhaps you fell into my second group, someone who was already in the passing range but needed some luck or essays to fall their way this time? Obviously I dont know your first scores, the new scores and what (if anything) you did differently to prepare.


no no, I didn't take your statement insulting.
When I say I did different, I was talking about my preparation. I threw out barbri and went with Emanuel. Studied different materials, questions and approached differently is what I meant. I am not sure what my grading is going to be....
I was NOT in the close to passing range.

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Re: 2017 Results Thread - February Exam

Postby virgoyum » Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:10 pm

ndbigdave wrote:
happyhour1122 wrote:

Totally agreed. But then, why is it that retakers have higher chance of failing again? (or low passage rate?)_


I think re-takers struggling (be it in Feb or July) is a disconnect between conventional wisdom and reality.

What do I mean by that?

It has already been mentioned in this thread, but re-takers have the advantage of seeing the material once, studying a second time, learning from mistakes etc. However I think in reality, that most (not all by any means) give the test their "best shot" the first time around and generally score where their skills and knowledge allow them to score. Now, there can be other factors (bad luck with essay topics comes first to mind) that can change from test to test, but if you are a poor writer or poor on multiple choice the amount of work to pick up the requisite points is (often times) beyond what the average student is willing to invest. Therefore without a large change in studying habits and improving skills (writing or multiple choice) the results are likely to be the same. Further, I think many (again not all) re-takers BANK on these perceived "advantages" and DONT put in the big changes necessary to move the needle as far as necessary. For those re-takers who DO pass I have to think they fall into one of two categories:

#1 - They didnt take the first test as seriously as they should have and DID the second time.

#2 - They did very little different but were within "passing range" already and a few breaks with guesses on the MBE or essays pushed them over.

There are no doubt individual situations that differ, but at the core if you didn't pass it can come down to not prepping enough, not having the requisite ability (writing or multiple choice) or just flatly not having the aptitude.

Without having ANY knowledge for how curves are set, I dont think it works in a traditional sense, where the bar examiners have a threshold of passers they want to see so they therefore adjust the points enough to get that threshold. Meaning, traditionally IL has a pass-rate somewhere in the 70s% - I dont think the IL bar examiners look at the scores and say - "wow, to get to 70+% we need to give everyone 10 scaled points" therefore being in February with "generally" weaker test takers doesnt give the advantage one might expect. Though I suppose on essays one would think competing against worse test takers would/could make marginally better writing look even "better" then when competing with other good/adequate writers. I say this because essays are the only "subjective" portion on the test.


I wonder if how far removed from law school has anything to do with it. I was surprised at the amount of people I met in Barbri who had years between graduation and were sitting for the exam for the first time. Although I met one person with years as high as mine, they did sit for another state's exam after law school but just didn't pass waiting a couple of years to give it another shot in another state,

A big problem for me was stamina and focus issues not "seriousness." I actually felt good after the first exam and didn't do too bad all things considered. I could have been approved for more time because I have a prescription but chose not to ask for it and just fight it out
Last edited by virgoyum on Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.



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