2017 July California Bar

mcmand
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby mcmand » Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:54 pm

justanotheruser wrote:
mcmand wrote:Disappointing that the Court couldn't be a leader on this.


Really surprised given that the State Bar was ready to lower the score


They were ready but still managed to be equivocal in their recommendation. I think the previous posts that looked at this as a cynical ploy to say "we looked at it and decided not to" to tamp down criticism were accurate.

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esq
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby esq » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:23 am

mcmand wrote:
justanotheruser wrote:
mcmand wrote:Disappointing that the Court couldn't be a leader on this.


Really surprised given that the State Bar was ready to lower the score


They were ready but still managed to be equivocal in their recommendation. I think the previous posts that looked at this as a cynical ploy to say "we looked at it and decided not to" to tamp down criticism were accurate.


I feel bad that I was part of that cynical group to be honest. Sorry all. Especially since, as some other posters pointed out, this outcome makes no logical sense.

After the CA S.Ct. made such a spectacle of the whole cut-score situation by initially stepping in and bitch-slapping the CA Bar across the face, they should have taken some sort of action against the 1440 cut. It honestly makes the court look a little inept in my view.

InterAlia1961
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby InterAlia1961 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:27 am

Sorry, but I didn't expect they would lower it. So, with that news, I'm not sure whether I will start studying again now or wait. I'm inclined to wait. I'm tired of studying for the CBX. I think I'll take the next few months and work, save some money, and get some perspective before I try again.

LockBox
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby LockBox » Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:36 am

Alt123 wrote:Court declines to lower the score for the time being.

https://newsroom.courts.ca.gov/news/sup ... a-bar-exam

ANXIETY AT MAX


I don't know if it matters to all of you waiting on scores, but this really changes nothing. Likely, the swing would have been incremental and in any event my opinion has always been don't worry about what is not in your control.

Failing sucks, and perhaps some of you would have passed with a slightly lower cut score. But, there are plenty of people on this board, myself included, who failed and have gone on to pass and have started their career in law. Pass or fail, all is not lost. Good luck next month everyone.

cbx2016
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby cbx2016 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:57 am

esq wrote:
mcmand wrote:
justanotheruser wrote:
mcmand wrote:Disappointing that the Court couldn't be a leader on this.


Really surprised given that the State Bar was ready to lower the score


They were ready but still managed to be equivocal in their recommendation. I think the previous posts that looked at this as a cynical ploy to say "we looked at it and decided not to" to tamp down criticism were accurate.


I feel bad that I was part of that cynical group to be honest. Sorry all. Especially since, as some other posters pointed out, this outcome makes no logical sense.

After the CA S.Ct. made such a spectacle of the whole cut-score situation by initially stepping in and bitch-slapping the CA Bar across the face, they should have taken some sort of action against the 1440 cut. It honestly makes the court look a little inept in my view.


The Court expressed concerns about the cut score due to letter from the deans of CA law schools. I think most jdxs don't regularly review their cut score, and CA was no different. It's not a stretch of imagination for the Court to be shocked that the cut score hasn't seemed to have been reviewed once since it was set several decades ago (apparently because no one thought it was a problem until recently, according to the letter the Court just published).

That said, the letter explained why it chose not to change the score:

S.Ct of CA wrote:Because the pass score has remained constant for three decades as overall bar exam pass rates have fluctuated, the court directed the State Bar to conduct a thorough and expedited study of the exam that would include, among other things, a meaningful analysis to determine whether protection of potential clients and the public is served by maintaining 1440 as the pass score.

...

On September 13, the court received the State Bar’s “Final Report on the 2017 California Bar Exam Standard Setting Study.” ... Opinions of the study were mixed: two independent psychometricians identified flaws in the study but ultimately found its process and conclusions sound, while a number of legal educators and others concluded the flaws of the study were so significant as to render it unreliable.

...

Based on that review and balancing all considerations, the court is not persuaded that the relevant information and data developed at this time weigh in favor of departing from the longstanding pass score of 1440.


If nothing else derived, the Court noted the mixed opinions about the one (apparently divisive) study conducted at the direction of the Court to evince the necessity of change as being unpersuasive. Additionally, the Court noted, among other things, that there are other variables that complicate the question of an accurate cut score.

The court also encourages the State Bar and all California law schools to work cooperatively together and with others in examining (1) whether student metrics, law school curricula and teaching techniques, and other factors might account for the recent decline in bar exam pass rates; (2) how such data might inform efforts to improve academic instruction for the benefit of law students preparing for licensure and practice; and (3) whether and to what extent changes implemented for the first time during administration of the July 2017 exam — that is, adoption of a two-day exam and equal weighting of the written and multiple choice portions of the exam — might bear on possible adjustment of the pass score.


I personally think the third point regarding the extent of impact the 2-day change and equal weight to the MBE is critical. If the One-Timers calculator is to be believed, you can "auto-pass" with 50s in all essays and a 148/200 with a 1442 overall.

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CAnow
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby CAnow » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:00 pm

cbx2016 wrote: If the One-Timers calculator is to be believed, you can "auto-pass" with 50s in all essays and a 148/200 with a 1442 overall.


Raw 148/200 + 50s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 138/200 + 55s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 128/200 + 60s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 118/200 + 65s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 108/200 + 70s on all essays = 1442.

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yeslekkkk
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby yeslekkkk » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:06 pm

CAnow wrote:
cbx2016 wrote: If the One-Timers calculator is to be believed, you can "auto-pass" with 50s in all essays and a 148/200 with a 1442 overall.


Raw 148/200 + 50s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 138/200 + 55s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 128/200 + 60s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 118/200 + 65s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 108/200 + 70s on all essays = 1442.


Isn't the PT worth more than 100 points thought?

justanotheruser
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby justanotheruser » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:28 pm

CAnow wrote:
cbx2016 wrote: If the One-Timers calculator is to be believed, you can "auto-pass" with 50s in all essays and a 148/200 with a 1442 overall.


Raw 148/200 + 50s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 138/200 + 55s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 128/200 + 60s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 118/200 + 65s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 108/200 + 70s on all essays = 1442.


So, how much can we trust the calculator?

Jay.T17
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby Jay.T17 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:48 pm

CAnow wrote:
cbx2016 wrote: If the One-Timers calculator is to be believed, you can "auto-pass" with 50s in all essays and a 148/200 with a 1442 overall.


Raw 148/200 + 50s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 138/200 + 55s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 128/200 + 60s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 118/200 + 65s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 108/200 + 70s on all essays = 1442.


Seems like a good estimate. 148 raw will put you in 1600s for scaled MBE score. A 128 will most likely put you right around 1444

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a male human
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby a male human » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:52 pm

justanotheruser wrote:
CAnow wrote:
cbx2016 wrote: If the One-Timers calculator is to be believed, you can "auto-pass" with 50s in all essays and a 148/200 with a 1442 overall.


Raw 148/200 + 50s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 138/200 + 55s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 128/200 + 60s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 118/200 + 65s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 108/200 + 70s on all essays = 1442.


So, how much can we trust the calculator?

With a grain of salt.

This is the first time CA has done the two-day format, so there is nothing to extrapolate the scaling formula with. Presumably, the calculator uses one or more previous scaling formulae to estimate your score, but I'm not sure to what extent the new format will change that.

maxmartin
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby maxmartin » Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:48 pm

CAnow wrote:
cbx2016 wrote: If the One-Timers calculator is to be believed, you can "auto-pass" with 50s in all essays and a 148/200 with a 1442 overall.


Raw 148/200 + 50s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 138/200 + 55s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 128/200 + 60s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 118/200 + 65s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 108/200 + 70s on all essays = 1442.


148 is the raw score, the scaled probably is like 160.

La Cosa Nostra
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby La Cosa Nostra » Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:00 pm

maxmartin wrote:
CAnow wrote:
cbx2016 wrote: If the One-Timers calculator is to be believed, you can "auto-pass" with 50s in all essays and a 148/200 with a 1442 overall.


Raw 148/200 + 50s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 138/200 + 55s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 128/200 + 60s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 118/200 + 65s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 108/200 + 70s on all essays = 1442.


148 is the raw score, the scaled probably is like 160.



According to the calculator, a 148 raw score is 180 scaled...

gaddockteeg
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby gaddockteeg » Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:17 pm

Sad. Pretty disappointed but whatever.

gaddockteeg
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby gaddockteeg » Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:17 pm

maxmartin wrote:
CAnow wrote:
cbx2016 wrote: If the One-Timers calculator is to be believed, you can "auto-pass" with 50s in all essays and a 148/200 with a 1442 overall.


Raw 148/200 + 50s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 138/200 + 55s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 128/200 + 60s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 118/200 + 65s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 108/200 + 70s on all essays = 1442.


148 is the raw score, the scaled probably is like 160.


Isn't the exam out of 175 anyways? How are they getting a score out of 200?

cbx2016
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby cbx2016 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:30 pm

a male human wrote:
justanotheruser wrote:
CAnow wrote:
cbx2016 wrote: If the One-Timers calculator is to be believed, you can "auto-pass" with 50s in all essays and a 148/200 with a 1442 overall.


Raw 148/200 + 50s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 138/200 + 55s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 128/200 + 60s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 118/200 + 65s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 108/200 + 70s on all essays = 1442.


So, how much can we trust the calculator?

With a grain of salt.

This is the first time CA has done the two-day format, so there is nothing to extrapolate the scaling formula with. Presumably, the calculator uses one or more previous scaling formulae to estimate your score, but I'm not sure to what extent the new format will change that.


This is partially my original point. There are a lot of moving parts right now besides the cut score.

Someone noted that a 148/200 (which I am assuming is meant to read 148/175) would convert, according to the site, to a 904 CBX final weight, i.e. 1800 CBX scaled / 180 on the MBE scale, which is way out of line with even the most gracious "eyeball scaling" of the last decade of adjusting raw upward 12-21 points, and that was on a 190-question scale. I have no idea what would look reasonable for an eyeball raw-to-scaled adjustment for a 175-question scale because it's so new. The calculator seems to think that a reasonable eyeball conversion amounts to 32 points, and I have no basis to argue that it's wrong other than it doesn't line up with 190-question scale expectations. The calculator's essay side though seems reasonably straightforward (350 raw written of 700 points, or 1000 on a 2000 point scale; 50 percent weight to final score).

All these hypothetical numbers aside, there is no uncertainty that the (comparably) less-arbitrary portion of the bar exam being presently worth 50 percent, up from 35 percent, makes a "148/200" worth more now than it did before. That will be, in itself, a distinctive shift re the cut score difficulty today vs the cut score difficulty of exams past. Whether that amounts to a 180 scaled...

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catechumen
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby catechumen » Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:51 pm

I lost any respect I had for the CA Supreme Court. At the end of the day they are only looking out for the interest of their fellow lawyers. They basically told the law school deans we don't care if CA is much harder than the rest of the country. If you want a higher pass rate admit better test takers, and keep out non-traditional law students.

Ironically, this is a slap in the face to minority students because they are the ones most affected by this failure to lower the passing score. About the only thing we can do is call our elected officials to fix this directly. We will not get any help from the Bar or the courts. Governor Brown failed the Bar once, in fact he just signed a bill stripping the Bar of a lot of its power, so the issue is fresh in his mind. Lets lobby them to fix this test!



"The court also encourages the State Bar and all California law schools to work cooperatively together and with others in examining (1) whether student metrics, law school curricula and teaching techniques, and other factors might account for the recent decline in bar exam pass rates; (2) how such data might inform efforts to improve academic instruction for the benefit of law students preparing for licensure and practice;"

Pbjd21
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby Pbjd21 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 9:04 pm

Jay.T17 wrote:
CAnow wrote:
cbx2016 wrote: If the One-Timers calculator is to be believed, you can "auto-pass" with 50s in all essays and a 148/200 with a 1442 overall.


Raw 148/200 + 50s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 138/200 + 55s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 128/200 + 60s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 118/200 + 65s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 108/200 + 70s on all essays = 1442.


Seems like a good estimate. 148 raw will put you in 1600s for scaled MBE score. A 128 will most likely put you right around 1444


So obviously a bit confused and understanding that this by no means is 100% accurate, but for the sake of my nerves, what would a roughly 1370 scaled mbe translate to according to one-timers calculator? I am a repeater and my scaled mbe’s have been 1379, 1411, and 1433. Of which I’ve never understood where I stood as far as raw score goes. If anyone can shed some light I’d rather assume low on my raw score to see where I would roughly need my essays to be.

I hate this.

Jay.T17
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby Jay.T17 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 11:05 pm

Pbjd21 wrote:
Jay.T17 wrote:
CAnow wrote:
cbx2016 wrote: If the One-Timers calculator is to be believed, you can "auto-pass" with 50s in all essays and a 148/200 with a 1442 overall.


Raw 148/200 + 50s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 138/200 + 55s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 128/200 + 60s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 118/200 + 65s on all essays = 1442.

Raw 108/200 + 70s on all essays = 1442.


Seems like a good estimate. 148 raw will put you in 1600s for scaled MBE score. A 128 will most likely put you right around 1444


So obviously a bit confused and understanding that this by no means is 100% accurate, but for the sake of my nerves, what would a roughly 1370 scaled mbe translate to according to one-timers calculator? I am a repeater and my scaled mbe’s have been 1379, 1411, and 1433. Of which I’ve never understood where I stood as far as raw score goes. If anyone can shed some light I’d rather assume low on my raw score to see where I would roughly need my essays to be.

I hate this.


My statement about a 148 putting you in the 1600s is wrong according to Onetimers. Apparently, a raw 148/200 will put you at a 1808 scaled.
Onetimers states that a raw 124/200 = 1442 scaled MBE, and a raw 119/200 = 1366 scaled MBE.

I think Barbri said a 1440 ranged between 62% and 68% depending on the scale for the particular year. So Onetimers may be using a generous formula. I just don't see how getting 74% on the MBE will place you in the 1800s.

6TimeFailure
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby 6TimeFailure » Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:22 am

If I don't pass this time I am going to write to Gov Brown and beg him to do something...I dunno what exactly. but still...

LockBox
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby LockBox » Mon Oct 23, 2017 12:13 pm

6TimeFailure wrote:If I don't pass this time I am going to write to Gov Brown and beg him to do something...I dunno what exactly. but still...


This shows exactly why the conversation here, to some degree, is futile re: lower the cut score. You have to attack your weakness, which if I recall were your essay scores (since you crushed the MBE). Hopefully, the 50% emphasis on the MBE this time will be what you need to get over the hurdle. Good luck!

mcmand
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby mcmand » Mon Oct 23, 2017 12:48 pm

LockBox wrote:
6TimeFailure wrote:If I don't pass this time I am going to write to Gov Brown and beg him to do something...I dunno what exactly. but still...


This shows exactly why the conversation here, to some degree, is futile re: lower the cut score. You have to attack your weakness, which if I recall were your essay scores (since you crushed the MBE). Hopefully, the 50% emphasis on the MBE this time will be what you need to get over the hurdle. Good luck!


Not sure what's wrong or futile about discussing better ways to evaluate attorney competence. We all know our own circumstances and the reality we are facing with the test as it is and the slow nature of any change in this profession. We're not idiots.

To the extent we talk about changing the exam or its score to make ourselves feel better, that's our prerogative.

LockBox
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby LockBox » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:05 pm

mcmand wrote:
LockBox wrote:
6TimeFailure wrote:If I don't pass this time I am going to write to Gov Brown and beg him to do something...I dunno what exactly. but still...


This shows exactly why the conversation here, to some degree, is futile re: lower the cut score. You have to attack your weakness, which if I recall were your essay scores (since you crushed the MBE). Hopefully, the 50% emphasis on the MBE this time will be what you need to get over the hurdle. Good luck!


Not sure what's wrong or futile about discussing better ways to evaluate attorney competence. We all know our own circumstances and the reality we are facing with the test as it is and the slow nature of any change in this profession. We're not idiots.

To the extent we talk about changing the exam or its score to make ourselves feel better, that's our prerogative.


Understood, just as it is my prerogative to claim that, until you've passed, the discussion is futile...actually, not worthwhile would be a better characterization.

Again, not to dissuade conversation here but my advice would be not to worry about any of this until the bar is behind any of you. I had many people, during my retake process, telling me how unfair it is, biased etc. It was all noise. I told them to go away (nicely). Not that I disagreed, but my focus was on passing and to the extent that this conversation didn't help me, I sidestepped it. If it helps y'all, have it.

My hope is that people visiting this board are trying to pass and doing whatever is in their capability to reach that goal.

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catechumen
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby catechumen » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:41 pm

Why not do both? Writing to the governor should at most take you 10-15 mins. Hardly a massive wasteful or futile effort either. We have popular opinion on our side too. We have both the Left and the Right who think this test is unfair. The Right because it's protectionist, and the Left because it disproportionately effects minority groups. Fixing this should be a political slam dunk. We just need to make our voices heard.

I mean you acknowledge that the test is unfair, yet say we should be ok with the status quo? Imagine if those required to take polling tests in order to vote in the segregationist America had such attitudes? You can study and work for change at the same time. No one is talking about abandoning studying altogether so we can camp out in front of the capital. This is not Occupy the Bar. LOL

As for everyone else. If we want change we need to get organized. Anyone up for joining something like a Facebook group to do so?


LockBox wrote:
mcmand wrote:
LockBox wrote:
6TimeFailure wrote:If I don't pass this time I am going to write to Gov Brown and beg him to do something...I dunno what exactly. but still...


This shows exactly why the conversation here, to some degree, is futile re: lower the cut score. You have to attack your weakness, which if I recall were your essay scores (since you crushed the MBE). Hopefully, the 50% emphasis on the MBE this time will be what you need to get over the hurdle. Good luck!


Not sure what's wrong or futile about discussing better ways to evaluate attorney competence. We all know our own circumstances and the reality we are facing with the test as it is and the slow nature of any change in this profession. We're not idiots.

To the extent we talk about changing the exam or its score to make ourselves feel better, that's our prerogative.


Understood, just as it is my prerogative to claim that, until you've passed, the discussion is futile...actually, not worthwhile would be a better characterization.

Again, not to dissuade conversation here but my advice would be not to worry about any of this until the bar is behind any of you. I had many people, during my retake process, telling me how unfair it is, biased etc. It was all noise. I told them to go away (nicely). Not that I disagreed, but my focus was on passing and to the extent that this conversation didn't help me, I sidestepped it. If it helps y'all, have it.

My hope is that people visiting this board are trying to pass and doing whatever is in their capability to reach that goal.

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yeslekkkk
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby yeslekkkk » Wed Oct 25, 2017 6:45 pm

22 days friends.

maxmartin
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Re: 2017 July California Bar

Postby maxmartin » Wed Oct 25, 2017 6:58 pm

Graders might tighten the grades in anticipation of the lower passing score. Now the passing score is upheld, let's see if we are fu..ed. It is so unfair to see the first time NY pass rate is around 86% for ABA schools. LOL




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