Michigan Bar Wait Group

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lionsfan1557

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Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby lionsfan1557 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:40 pm

I figured I would start a thread for Michaganders waiting for the bar. I am anxiously waiting for my bar results. Definitely not feeling too good about it especially after the MBE. I know the BLE stressed by November we should have our results. What is everyone's predictions? History points to the end of October. I'm going with a hunch and thinking October 27th. Come on Michigan release the damn results sooner!!

newbie2016

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby newbie2016 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:17 am

Lol. I am a financial analyst in my other life and based on data I have been able to glean from JD Advising, (who seems to have the most credible info), it appears that the results will be out closer to October 12th. This depends heavily on the actual number of people who took the exam but based on JD Advising's estimate of 750, we should see something on October 12th. You have may to copy to excel so that the data lines up with the header. See below:

Season # of Applicants # of Days Date Year Last exam day # of days per examiner % of total days Exams per examiner
Feb 525 56 25-Apr 2012 29-Feb 3.73333 0.067 35
Feb 463 57 20-Apr 2011 23-Feb 3.80000 0.067 31
Feb 441 66 30-Apr 2010 24-Feb 4.40000 0.067 29
Feb 429 68 5-May 2008 27-Feb 4.53333 0.067 29
Feb 538 70 5-May 2015 25-Feb 4.66667 0.067 36
Feb 681 71 7-May 2014 26-Feb 4.73333 0.067 45
Jul 750 77 12-Oct 2016 27-Jul 5.13333 0.067 50
Jul 782 77 13-Oct 2010 28-Jul 5.13333 0.067 52
Jul 888 77 12-Oct 2011 27-Jul 5.13333 0.067 59
Feb 497 78 12-May 2016 24-Feb 5.20000 0.067 33
Feb 722 78 15-May 2013 27-Feb 5.20000 0.067 48
Feb 463 84 19-May 2009 25-Feb 5.60000 0.067 31
Jul 811 84 21-Oct 2015 29-Jul 5.60000 0.067 54
Jul 1007 85 24-Oct 2013 31-Jul 5.66667 0.067 67
Jul 800 90 27-Oct 2009 29-Jul 6.00000 0.067 53
Jul 967 92 25-Oct 2012 25-Jul 6.13333 0.067 64
Jul 879 93 31-Oct 2008 30-Jul 6.20000 0.067 59
Jul 848 98 31-Oct 2007 25-Jul 6.53333 0.067 57
Jul 953 99 6-Nov 2014 30-Jul 6.60000 0.067 64


The key appears to be the % of total days, which oddly enough has turned out to be exactly the same for every exam. (I can provide the calc if anyone wants it). A higher or lower number of actual test takers will alter the result, but based on what I have right now, this is the prediction. :wink:
Last edited by newbie2016 on Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:27 am, edited 1 time in total.

rkreymer

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby rkreymer » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:24 am

newbie2016 wrote:Lol. I am a financial analyst in my other life and based on data I have been able to glean from JD Advising, (who seems to have the most credible info), it appears that the results will be out closer to October 12th. This depends heavily on the actual number of people who took the exam but based on JD Advising's estimate of 750, we should see something on October 12th. You have may to copy to excel so that the data lines up with the header. See below:

Season # of Applicants # of Days Date Year Last exam day # of days per examiner % of total days Exams per examiner
Feb 525 56 25-Apr 2012 29-Feb 3.73333 0.067 35
Feb 463 57 20-Apr 2011 23-Feb 3.80000 0.067 31
Feb 441 66 30-Apr 2010 24-Feb 4.40000 0.067 29
Feb 429 68 5-May 2008 27-Feb 4.53333 0.067 29
Feb 538 70 5-May 2015 25-Feb 4.66667 0.067 36
Feb 681 71 7-May 2014 26-Feb 4.73333 0.067 45
Jul 750 77 12-Oct 2016 27-Jul 5.13333 0.067 50
Jul 782 77 13-Oct 2010 28-Jul 5.13333 0.067 52
Jul 888 77 12-Oct 2011 27-Jul 5.13333 0.067 59
Feb 497 78 12-May 2016 24-Feb 5.20000 0.067 33
Feb 722 78 15-May 2013 27-Feb 5.20000 0.067 48
Feb 463 84 19-May 2009 25-Feb 5.60000 0.067 31
Jul 811 84 21-Oct 2015 29-Jul 5.60000 0.067 54
Jul 1007 85 24-Oct 2013 31-Jul 5.66667 0.067 67
Jul 800 90 27-Oct 2009 29-Jul 6.00000 0.067 53
Jul 967 92 25-Oct 2012 25-Jul 6.13333 0.067 64
Jul 879 93 31-Oct 2008 30-Jul 6.20000 0.067 59
Jul 848 98 31-Oct 2007 25-Jul 6.53333 0.067 57
Jul 953 99 6-Nov 2014 30-Jul 6.60000 0.067 64



Can you please do the same for NY :)

newbie2016

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby newbie2016 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:28 am

rkreymer wrote:
newbie2016 wrote:Lol. I am a financial analyst in my other life and based on data I have been able to glean from JD Advising, (who seems to have the most credible info), it appears that the results will be out closer to October 12th. This depends heavily on the actual number of people who took the exam but based on JD Advising's estimate of 750, we should see something on October 12th. You have may to copy to excel so that the data lines up with the header. See below:

Season # of Applicants # of Days Date Year Last exam day # of days per examiner % of total days Exams per examiner
Feb 525 56 25-Apr 2012 29-Feb 3.73333 0.067 35
Feb 463 57 20-Apr 2011 23-Feb 3.80000 0.067 31
Feb 441 66 30-Apr 2010 24-Feb 4.40000 0.067 29
Feb 429 68 5-May 2008 27-Feb 4.53333 0.067 29
Feb 538 70 5-May 2015 25-Feb 4.66667 0.067 36
Feb 681 71 7-May 2014 26-Feb 4.73333 0.067 45
Jul 750 77 12-Oct 2016 27-Jul 5.13333 0.067 50
Jul 782 77 13-Oct 2010 28-Jul 5.13333 0.067 52
Jul 888 77 12-Oct 2011 27-Jul 5.13333 0.067 59
Feb 497 78 12-May 2016 24-Feb 5.20000 0.067 33
Feb 722 78 15-May 2013 27-Feb 5.20000 0.067 48
Feb 463 84 19-May 2009 25-Feb 5.60000 0.067 31
Jul 811 84 21-Oct 2015 29-Jul 5.60000 0.067 54
Jul 1007 85 24-Oct 2013 31-Jul 5.66667 0.067 67
Jul 800 90 27-Oct 2009 29-Jul 6.00000 0.067 53
Jul 967 92 25-Oct 2012 25-Jul 6.13333 0.067 64
Jul 879 93 31-Oct 2008 30-Jul 6.20000 0.067 59
Jul 848 98 31-Oct 2007 25-Jul 6.53333 0.067 57
Jul 953 99 6-Nov 2014 30-Jul 6.60000 0.067 64



Can you please do the same for NY :)



Sure. Tell me where to find the historical data.

rkreymer

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby rkreymer » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:32 am


lionsfan1557

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby lionsfan1557 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:12 pm

newbie2016 wrote:Lol. I am a financial analyst in my other life and based on data I have been able to glean from JD Advising, (who seems to have the most credible info), it appears that the results will be out closer to October 12th. This depends heavily on the actual number of people who took the exam but based on JD Advising's estimate of 750, we should see something on October 12th. You have may to copy to excel so that the data lines up with the header. See below:

Season # of Applicants # of Days Date Year Last exam day # of days per examiner % of total days Exams per examiner
Feb 525 56 25-Apr 2012 29-Feb 3.73333 0.067 35
Feb 463 57 20-Apr 2011 23-Feb 3.80000 0.067 31
Feb 441 66 30-Apr 2010 24-Feb 4.40000 0.067 29
Feb 429 68 5-May 2008 27-Feb 4.53333 0.067 29
Feb 538 70 5-May 2015 25-Feb 4.66667 0.067 36
Feb 681 71 7-May 2014 26-Feb 4.73333 0.067 45
Jul 750 77 12-Oct 2016 27-Jul 5.13333 0.067 50
Jul 782 77 13-Oct 2010 28-Jul 5.13333 0.067 52
Jul 888 77 12-Oct 2011 27-Jul 5.13333 0.067 59
Feb 497 78 12-May 2016 24-Feb 5.20000 0.067 33
Feb 722 78 15-May 2013 27-Feb 5.20000 0.067 48
Feb 463 84 19-May 2009 25-Feb 5.60000 0.067 31
Jul 811 84 21-Oct 2015 29-Jul 5.60000 0.067 54
Jul 1007 85 24-Oct 2013 31-Jul 5.66667 0.067 67
Jul 800 90 27-Oct 2009 29-Jul 6.00000 0.067 53
Jul 967 92 25-Oct 2012 25-Jul 6.13333 0.067 64
Jul 879 93 31-Oct 2008 30-Jul 6.20000 0.067 59
Jul 848 98 31-Oct 2007 25-Jul 6.53333 0.067 57
Jul 953 99 6-Nov 2014 30-Jul 6.60000 0.067 64


The key appears to be the % of total days, which oddly enough has turned out to be exactly the same for every exam. (I can provide the calc if anyone wants it). A higher or lower number of actual test takers will alter the result, but based on what I have right now, this is the prediction. :wink:



Excellent work my friend! I'm not going to lie these statistics freaked me out. I just had a mini panic attack. I know this sounds bad but I just can't visualize a scenario where I actually see a pass for my seat number. Especially after the garbage I put down for that con law essay.

jd425

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby jd425 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:08 pm

Will there be any way of knowing the release date in advance? Or will we just find out on the day that the BLE posts by seat number?

lionsfan1557

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby lionsfan1557 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:05 pm

jd425 wrote:Will there be any way of knowing the release date in advance? Or will we just find out on the day that the BLE posts by seat number?


I believe we do not get a heads up and we just find out whenever the BLE posts the seat numbers. Would be nice if it was like most states where you are at least given a heads up: :? This wait is killing me.

jd425

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby jd425 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:30 pm

I was afraid of that... Hopefully we don't have to wait beyond 10/12!

lionsfan1557

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby lionsfan1557 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:41 pm

jd425 wrote:I was afraid of that... Hopefully we don't have to wait beyond 10/12!



Something tells me we are going to wait until the end of October or first week of November. I hope I'm wrong because I feel everyday from October 12th and onwards is going to be a panic induced day lol. :?

SuperSpartan88

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby SuperSpartan88 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 3:46 am

Apparently there was an increase of almost half a point in the mean MBE scores across the nation, but it fell in 26 jurisdictions and increased in 22. Does anyone know if MI was one or the other by any chance?

lionsfan1557

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby lionsfan1557 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 2:41 pm

SuperSpartan88 wrote:Apparently there was an increase of almost half a point in the mean MBE scores across the nation, but it fell in 26 jurisdictions and increased in 22. Does anyone know if MI was one or the other by any chance?


I was reading about that too a few weeks ago. I don't think there is anyway of telling until the results are released. But I'm sure since I suck at the MBE and that I took it in Michigan then you can count on me to bring the average down. :D In all seriousness is everyone as worried as I am or are you guys confident that you passed? I've been having nightmares the last few weeks.

UMich11

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby UMich11 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 2:55 pm

lionsfan1557 wrote:
SuperSpartan88 wrote:Apparently there was an increase of almost half a point in the mean MBE scores across the nation, but it fell in 26 jurisdictions and increased in 22. Does anyone know if MI was one or the other by any chance?


I was reading about that too a few weeks ago. I don't think there is anyway of telling until the results are released. But I'm sure since I suck at the MBE and that I took it in Michigan then you can count on me to bring the average down. :D In all seriousness is everyone as worried as I am or are you guys confident that you passed? I've been having nightmares the last few weeks.



I was convinced I failed walking out. It ebbs and flows right now. I just felt like I shit the bed on the mbe. But I see the people from my class who passed in other states and I know I did better in school than them and better on the lsat. So part of me thinks if a kid like that can pass, I should be good.

SuperSpartan88

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby SuperSpartan88 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 4:21 pm

I felt kind of weary on the MBE but felt pretty good about the essays. I know that I did better than the person I shared a hotel room with after chatting about the essays. His legal conclusions and analysis were pretty off point. He was a re-taker from Cooley I am a first-timer from MSU. At least on the essays I can confidently say that I did better than answers of that quality. Of course, the MBE is a wildcard. I would imagine that some people felt great and did pretty bad and some felt pretty bad and did amazingly well. I'm just hopeful that I "banked" some extra points on the essays where I can afford to give a little ground on the MBE.

Before the MBE answer discussion was taken down, I do remember I had some answers that were against the consensus and some that were in agreement with it. I also remember a string of a certain letter choice people said that they selected and I remember having a similar string. I had to guess between two answers a lot on the MBE so that gets me a bit worried. I also never really performed well at the Themis practice sets. The good thing is I'm not shooting for an "A" just the top 2/3's of takers.

lionsfan1557

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby lionsfan1557 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 4:52 pm

SuperSpartan88 wrote:I felt kind of weary on the MBE but felt pretty good about the essays. I know that I did better than the person I shared a hotel room with after chatting about the essays. His legal conclusions and analysis were pretty off point. He was a re-taker from Cooley I am a first-timer from MSU. At least on the essays I can confidently say that I did better than answers of that quality. Of course, the MBE is a wildcard. I would imagine that some people felt great and did pretty bad and some felt pretty bad and did amazingly well. I'm just hopeful that I "banked" some extra points on the essays where I can afford to give a little ground on the MBE.

Before the MBE answer discussion was taken down, I do remember I had some answers that were against the consensus and some that were in agreement with it. I also remember a string of a certain letter choice people said that they selected and I remember having a similar string. I had to guess between two answers a lot on the MBE so that gets me a bit worried. I also never really performed well at the Themis practice sets. The good thing is I'm not shooting for an "A" just the top 2/3's of takers.


Honestly I do not know how I feel about the whole thing. If I had to guess I would say I definitely did better on the essays but I do not by any stretch think I dominated the essays. I felt like the Con Law, Evidence, Sales, and Civ Pro essays were difficult. I am just hoping for enough points to "pass" but the MBE did leave me feeling hopeless. If I did fail I know for a fact it will be because of the MBE.

SuperSpartan88

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby SuperSpartan88 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:35 pm

Yeah come to think of it, I really didn't rock any of those essays you mentioned, but I think I did ok on some of them. The civ pro and con law were by far the hardest, but evidence and the equity one were tough too. I really don't know how they grade them so maybe I bombed out there too.

lionsfan1557

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby lionsfan1557 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:55 pm

SuperSpartan88 wrote:Yeah come to think of it, I really didn't rock any of those essays you mentioned, but I think I did ok on some of them. The civ pro and con law were by far the hardest, but evidence and the equity one were tough too. I really don't know how they grade them so maybe I bombed out there too.


I am just hoping we get some lenient graders like February's exam. Really crossing my fingers for this.

blueapple

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby blueapple » Tue Oct 11, 2016 3:11 pm

I'm getting super antsy
Last edited by blueapple on Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

lionsfan1557

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby lionsfan1557 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 3:20 pm

blueapple wrote:I'm getting super antsy


I am beyond antsy right now. Tomorrow could be the day or Thursday but I'm starting to think it will be the end of October for some reason. What is everyone else's gut feeling?

jd425

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby jd425 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:27 am

Does anyone know what time of day the results are released? Is it fairly consistent from year to year?

lionsfan1557

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby lionsfan1557 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 12:42 pm

jd425 wrote:Does anyone know what time of day the results are released? Is it fairly consistent from year to year?


I believe it's usually around 2:30 pm. I'm guessing it can be anywhere between 2:00-5:00 pm. I don't feel like they are coming out today. Anyone else constantly refreshing the BLE webpage? Lol

jd425

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby jd425 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 1:04 pm

I also have a gut feeling that it won't be today, but I'm still hopeful. Idk if I can go through this stress for the next 3-4 weeks...

lionsfan1557

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby lionsfan1557 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 1:29 pm

jd425 wrote:I also have a gut feeling that it won't be today, but I'm still hopeful. Idk if I can go through this stress for the next 3-4 weeks...


Same here buddy. It would be nice if we were given a heads up. I know people in other states get emails saying results will be out on this day. This is just torture not knowing when the results will be posted.

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Single-Malt-Liquor

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby Single-Malt-Liquor » Wed Oct 12, 2016 1:32 pm

lionsfan1557 wrote:
jd425 wrote:I also have a gut feeling that it won't be today, but I'm still hopeful. Idk if I can go through this stress for the next 3-4 weeks...


Same here buddy. It would be nice if we were given a heads up. I know people in other states get emails saying results will be out on this day. This is just torture not knowing when the results will be posted.


You don't want this. Everyone of us in Mass feel 50x worse knowing the date. Better to have a range and then just be slapped with it rather than knowing your execution date and walking that green mile.

lionsfan1557

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Re: Michigan Bar Wait Group

Postby lionsfan1557 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 1:53 pm

Single-Malt-Liquor wrote:
lionsfan1557 wrote:
jd425 wrote:I also have a gut feeling that it won't be today, but I'm still hopeful. Idk if I can go through this stress for the next 3-4 weeks...


Same here buddy. It would be nice if we were given a heads up. I know people in other states get emails saying results will be out on this day. This is just torture not knowing when the results will be posted.


You don't want this. Everyone of us in Mass feel 50x worse knowing the date. Better to have a range and then just be slapped with it rather than knowing your execution date and walking that green mile.


I can also see the torture in that too. I guess there is nothing good about waiting for these results. It's horrible either way. It seems like I can't focus on anything else except these results. People talk to me and I just zone out. Good luck to everyone waiting!



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