July 2015 California Bar Exam

mike.alexander23
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby mike.alexander23 » Tue Nov 03, 2015 7:56 pm

In other news, Mammoth is opening early (Nov. 5). So we can kill some time doing that.

needaday
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby needaday » Wed Nov 04, 2015 1:52 pm

do any jurisdictions allow you to get early access to results for a fee? if not, i'd be surprised. seems like easy money.

mike.alexander23
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby mike.alexander23 » Wed Nov 04, 2015 3:47 pm

needaday wrote:do any jurisdictions allow you to get early access to results for a fee? if not, i'd be surprised. seems like easy money.


This is brilliant. I'd pay $$$$ to know now.

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robinhoodOO
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby robinhoodOO » Wed Nov 04, 2015 7:43 pm

mike.alexander23 wrote:
needaday wrote:do any jurisdictions allow you to get early access to results for a fee? if not, i'd be surprised. seems like easy money.


This is brilliant. I'd pay $$$$ to know now.


Is this one of those "who do I have to blow" rackets? If so, I'm sure I can find a 'stand-in.'

k5220
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby k5220 » Wed Nov 04, 2015 8:46 pm

40 is the lowest you can get on an essay if you write something, right? Even if what you write is super brief and vague and just grasps at rules and comes to a conclusion without any real analysis?

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a male human
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby a male human » Wed Nov 04, 2015 8:49 pm

Yeah, but I wouldn't count on passing with even one 40. That means you need an average of 70 for your other essays.

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robinhoodOO
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby robinhoodOO » Wed Nov 04, 2015 8:54 pm

a male human wrote:Yeah, but I wouldn't count on passing with even one 40. That means you need an average of 70 for your other essays.


Ya, I'm fairly certain you could not get by with less than 70's across the board. I doubt they're handing out many 40's, though

k5220
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby k5220 » Wed Nov 04, 2015 9:09 pm

robinhoodOO wrote:
a male human wrote:Yeah, but I wouldn't count on passing with even one 40. That means you need an average of 70 for your other essays.


Ya, I'm fairly certain you could not get by with less than 70's across the board. I doubt they're handing out many 40's, though

I don't know, as more time goes by I've convinced myself my takings essay was just like "Here's a rule about the police power and a general statement about due process. Penn Central was a case, so conclusion without a warrant, conclusion without a warrant, conclusion without a warrant." I think it might deserve pretty close to the lowest score allowed.

How did you get to that 70s number for the remaining essays? Playing around with the one-timers calculator using a pretty low MBE (130s-ish) it still looks pretty safe (60s-ish essay scores seem to be enough). Is that not accurate?

(Sorry, this wait has made me a neurotic mess)

needaday
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby needaday » Wed Nov 04, 2015 9:36 pm

k5220 wrote:
robinhoodOO wrote:
a male human wrote:Yeah, but I wouldn't count on passing with even one 40. That means you need an average of 70 for your other essays.


Ya, I'm fairly certain you could not get by with less than 70's across the board. I doubt they're handing out many 40's, though

I don't know, as more time goes by I've convinced myself my takings essay was just like "Here's a rule about the police power and a general statement about due process. Penn Central was a case, so conclusion without a warrant, conclusion without a warrant, conclusion without a warrant." I think it might deserve pretty close to the lowest score allowed.

How did you get to that 70s number for the remaining essays? Playing around with the one-timers calculator using a pretty low MBE (130s-ish) it still looks pretty safe (60s-ish essay scores seem to be enough). Is that not accurate?

(Sorry, this wait has made me a neurotic mess)


you talked about warrants?

k5220
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby k5220 » Wed Nov 04, 2015 9:39 pm

needaday wrote:
k5220 wrote:
robinhoodOO wrote:
a male human wrote:Yeah, but I wouldn't count on passing with even one 40. That means you need an average of 70 for your other essays.


Ya, I'm fairly certain you could not get by with less than 70's across the board. I doubt they're handing out many 40's, though

I don't know, as more time goes by I've convinced myself my takings essay was just like "Here's a rule about the police power and a general statement about due process. Penn Central was a case, so conclusion without a warrant, conclusion without a warrant, conclusion without a warrant." I think it might deserve pretty close to the lowest score allowed.

How did you get to that 70s number for the remaining essays? Playing around with the one-timers calculator using a pretty low MBE (130s-ish) it still looks pretty safe (60s-ish essay scores seem to be enough). Is that not accurate?

(Sorry, this wait has made me a neurotic mess)


you talked about warrants?


haha, no. i just meant there was no warrant supporting my claim / no reason supporting my conclusion in response to the call of the question. they were kind of just bare assertions.

gaagoots
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby gaagoots » Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:47 pm

k5220 wrote:
robinhoodOO wrote:
a male human wrote:Yeah, but I wouldn't count on passing with even one 40. That means you need an average of 70 for your other essays.


Ya, I'm fairly certain you could not get by with less than 70's across the board. I doubt they're handing out many 40's, though

I don't know, as more time goes by I've convinced myself my takings essay was just like "Here's a rule about the police power and a general statement about due process. Penn Central was a case, so conclusion without a warrant, conclusion without a warrant, conclusion without a warrant." I think it might deserve pretty close to the lowest score allowed.

How did you get to that 70s number for the remaining essays? Playing around with the one-timers calculator using a pretty low MBE (130s-ish) it still looks pretty safe (60s-ish essay scores seem to be enough). Is that not accurate?

(Sorry, this wait has made me a neurotic mess)



When I had Baressays I searched for 45's to see what you had to do to get that. Mainly it was awarded to those who wrote a lot on one issue for example essay #5 for Feb 15 had a bit of a discussion on defamation. The 45 answer went full blown analysis on it, didn't touch any business orgs issues whatsoever. Another 40 or 45 can't remember for another subject was also handwritten and it was good I was impressed thinking WTF why did this get such a low score? Handwriting legible, no scribbles and IRAC then the very last page, the very last sentence he/she wrote "ran out of time . . ." Death Knell to the grader.

needaday
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby needaday » Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:33 am

gaagoots wrote:
k5220 wrote:
robinhoodOO wrote:
a male human wrote:Yeah, but I wouldn't count on passing with even one 40. That means you need an average of 70 for your other essays.


Ya, I'm fairly certain you could not get by with less than 70's across the board. I doubt they're handing out many 40's, though

I don't know, as more time goes by I've convinced myself my takings essay was just like "Here's a rule about the police power and a general statement about due process. Penn Central was a case, so conclusion without a warrant, conclusion without a warrant, conclusion without a warrant." I think it might deserve pretty close to the lowest score allowed.

How did you get to that 70s number for the remaining essays? Playing around with the one-timers calculator using a pretty low MBE (130s-ish) it still looks pretty safe (60s-ish essay scores seem to be enough). Is that not accurate?

(Sorry, this wait has made me a neurotic mess)



When I had Baressays I searched for 45's to see what you had to do to get that. Mainly it was awarded to those who wrote a lot on one issue for example essay #5 for Feb 15 had a bit of a discussion on defamation. The 45 answer went full blown analysis on it, didn't touch any business orgs issues whatsoever. Another 40 or 45 can't remember for another subject was also handwritten and it was good I was impressed thinking WTF why did this get such a low score? Handwriting legible, no scribbles and IRAC then the very last page, the very last sentence he/she wrote "ran out of time . . ." Death Knell to the grader.


I also recall a 40 on baressays where there was one written line

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a male human
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby a male human » Thu Nov 05, 2015 1:09 am

k5220 wrote:
robinhoodOO wrote:
a male human wrote:Yeah, but I wouldn't count on passing with even one 40. That means you need an average of 70 for your other essays.


Ya, I'm fairly certain you could not get by with less than 70's across the board. I doubt they're handing out many 40's, though

I don't know, as more time goes by I've convinced myself my takings essay was just like "Here's a rule about the police power and a general statement about due process. Penn Central was a case, so conclusion without a warrant, conclusion without a warrant, conclusion without a warrant." I think it might deserve pretty close to the lowest score allowed.

How did you get to that 70s number for the remaining essays? Playing around with the one-timers calculator using a pretty low MBE (130s-ish) it still looks pretty safe (60s-ish essay scores seem to be enough). Is that not accurate?

(Sorry, this wait has made me a neurotic mess)

Well, you never know with these people. Wasn't there a 2- or 3-page community property essay that got an 85?

Re 70: I assumed that, on average, a "passing" score of 65 is needed to pass the bar (assuming your PTs were also 65s and MBE in whatever the acceptable range is, 130?). If you get a 40 on one essay, you're deficient by 25 points, which you can distribute evenly among the remaining five essays to get back the average score of 65 on the essays.

needaday
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby needaday » Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:47 pm

a male human wrote:
k5220 wrote:
robinhoodOO wrote:
a male human wrote:Yeah, but I wouldn't count on passing with even one 40. That means you need an average of 70 for your other essays.


Ya, I'm fairly certain you could not get by with less than 70's across the board. I doubt they're handing out many 40's, though

I don't know, as more time goes by I've convinced myself my takings essay was just like "Here's a rule about the police power and a general statement about due process. Penn Central was a case, so conclusion without a warrant, conclusion without a warrant, conclusion without a warrant." I think it might deserve pretty close to the lowest score allowed.

How did you get to that 70s number for the remaining essays? Playing around with the one-timers calculator using a pretty low MBE (130s-ish) it still looks pretty safe (60s-ish essay scores seem to be enough). Is that not accurate?

(Sorry, this wait has made me a neurotic mess)

Well, you never know with these people. Wasn't there a 2- or 3-page community property essay that got an 85?

Re 70: I assumed that, on average, a "passing" score of 65 is needed to pass the bar (assuming your PTs were also 65s and MBE in whatever the acceptable range is, 130?). If you get a 40 on one essay, you're deficient by 25 points, which you can distribute evenly among the remaining five essays to get back the average score of 65 on the essays.


the one-timers calculator is pretty accurate. what you're looking for is a written score of 936, which will be passing unless there is a brutal scale.

k5220
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby k5220 » Thu Nov 05, 2015 2:07 pm

needaday wrote:
a male human wrote:
k5220 wrote:
robinhoodOO wrote:
a male human wrote:Yeah, but I wouldn't count on passing with even one 40. That means you need an average of 70 for your other essays.


Ya, I'm fairly certain you could not get by with less than 70's across the board. I doubt they're handing out many 40's, though

I don't know, as more time goes by I've convinced myself my takings essay was just like "Here's a rule about the police power and a general statement about due process. Penn Central was a case, so conclusion without a warrant, conclusion without a warrant, conclusion without a warrant." I think it might deserve pretty close to the lowest score allowed.

How did you get to that 70s number for the remaining essays? Playing around with the one-timers calculator using a pretty low MBE (130s-ish) it still looks pretty safe (60s-ish essay scores seem to be enough). Is that not accurate?

(Sorry, this wait has made me a neurotic mess)

Well, you never know with these people. Wasn't there a 2- or 3-page community property essay that got an 85?

Re 70: I assumed that, on average, a "passing" score of 65 is needed to pass the bar (assuming your PTs were also 65s and MBE in whatever the acceptable range is, 130?). If you get a 40 on one essay, you're deficient by 25 points, which you can distribute evenly among the remaining five essays to get back the average score of 65 on the essays.


the one-timers calculator is pretty accurate. what you're looking for is a written score of 936, which will be passing unless there is a brutal scale.


Is the scale likely to be bad since MBE scores are down? Or does one-timers take into account some of the drop in MBE scores already (since 2014 was so brutal)?

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robinhoodOO
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby robinhoodOO » Thu Nov 05, 2015 2:45 pm

k5220 wrote:Is the scale likely to be bad since MBE scores are down? Or does one-timers take into account some of the drop in MBE scores already (since 2014 was so brutal)?


It's my understanding the calculator is based on scaling from a single previous year (don't remember which). So, it wouldn't take any other scaling into account. Even then, you're basically guessing on how you think you did. I take the calculator with a huge grain of salt.

I think I got 80's on the PT's (I'm unbelievably confident I knocked them out of the park), which would mean I could eek by with a 55 or two on an essay. But, I could have just as easily gotten 65's on the PT's.

mike.alexander23
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby mike.alexander23 » Thu Nov 05, 2015 2:47 pm

robinhoodOO wrote:
k5220 wrote:Is the scale likely to be bad since MBE scores are down? Or does one-timers take into account some of the drop in MBE scores already (since 2014 was so brutal)?


It's my understanding the calculator is based on scaling from a single previous year (don't remember which). So, it wouldn't take any other scaling into account. Even then, you're basically guessing on how you think you did. I take the calculator with a huge grain of salt.

I think I got 80's on the PT's (I'm unbelievably confident I knocked them out of the park), which would mean I could eek by with a 55 or two on an essay. But, I could have just as easily gotten 65's on the PT's.


"I could have just as easily gotten 65's on the PT's" That is what scares me about this whole thing. I feel like I killed the essays and wouldn't be surprised if I got a 70 or so. But grading is all over the place.

k5220
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby k5220 » Thu Nov 05, 2015 3:06 pm

robinhoodOO wrote:
k5220 wrote:Is the scale likely to be bad since MBE scores are down? Or does one-timers take into account some of the drop in MBE scores already (since 2014 was so brutal)?


It's my understanding the calculator is based on scaling from a single previous year (don't remember which). So, it wouldn't take any other scaling into account. Even then, you're basically guessing on how you think you did. I take the calculator with a huge grain of salt.

I think I got 80's on the PT's (I'm unbelievably confident I knocked them out of the park), which would mean I could eek by with a 55 or two on an essay. But, I could have just as easily gotten 65's on the PT's.


Yeah, I realize that my guesses at my scores are just wild conjectures and so of course I'm taking the calculator's predictions with all the salt grains. But as I'm freaking out and convincing myself I wrote nonsense, it's nice to know that essay scores of 65, 60, 60, 55, 55, 40, PT scores of 65 and 75, and an MBE of 130 shows up as passing.

(I realize even that's not terribly conservative, but playing around and seeing how a strong PT gives you so much room on the essays is nice)

mike.alexander23
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby mike.alexander23 » Thu Nov 05, 2015 5:39 pm

So are we last?

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a male human
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby a male human » Thu Nov 05, 2015 5:41 pm

The Last of Us

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tmanix
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby tmanix » Thu Nov 05, 2015 5:49 pm

mike.alexander23 wrote:So are we last?

NJ is still waiting, I believe

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rpupkin
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby rpupkin » Thu Nov 05, 2015 5:50 pm

robinhoodOO wrote:
k5220 wrote:I think I got 80's on the PT's (I'm unbelievably confident I knocked them out of the park), which would mean I could eek by with a 55 or two on an essay. But, I could have just as easily gotten 65's on the PT's.

You cannot count on getting 80s. It's usually very easy to see the difference between a 50 and a 60. But good luck figuring out what separates a 70 from a 80. Once you get above 65, the scoring becomes increasingly arbitrary.

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tmanix
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby tmanix » Thu Nov 05, 2015 5:51 pm

tmanix wrote:
mike.alexander23 wrote:So are we last?

NJ is still waiting, I believe

Scratch that. We are indeed last. A lonely 2 weeks it will be

mike.alexander23
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby mike.alexander23 » Thu Nov 05, 2015 5:53 pm

rpupkin wrote:
robinhoodOO wrote:
k5220 wrote:I think I got 80's on the PT's (I'm unbelievably confident I knocked them out of the park), which would mean I could eek by with a 55 or two on an essay. But, I could have just as easily gotten 65's on the PT's.

You cannot count on getting 80s. It's usually very easy to see the difference between a 50 and a 60. But good luck figuring out what separates a 70 from a 80. Once you get above 65, the scoring becomes increasingly arbitrary.


My worry is the difference between a 60-65. I def don't feel like I got lower than a 60 on any written portion. I feel like I had a grasp on all the essays. But I'm worried that I get some bad luck and score a 60 on a majority of the essays

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SpAcEmAn SpLiFF
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Re: July 2015 California Bar Exam

Postby SpAcEmAn SpLiFF » Thu Nov 05, 2015 9:05 pm

I got a 1415 scaled MBE score last time (Feb 2015). Does anyone know what this converts to for a raw score? I'm guessing it's every time, but I just need a ballpark figure.




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