2015 February California Bar Exam

gaagoots
Posts: 212
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2010 12:01 am

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby gaagoots » Tue Apr 14, 2015 8:15 pm

L’Étranger wrote:I wanted to try and revive the (hopeless??) statistics discussion above. Here's some more points:

) A couple of posters on another thread have said that for their state bars the mean MBE scaled score reported for Feb '15 is a 136.

2) According to this graph that I got off the NCBE website, it looks like the Feb '15 mean scaled score ties the lowest mean MBE score in the last ten

Would be cool to see if we can start making correlations/conjectures as to whether there is any connection between how the MBE is scaled and how the California essays are scaled. That is, does the low mean scaled score have a good effect, bad effect, or no effect on the amount that the essays are curved.



I used the February 2010 scale for California with a multiplier (Raw written score x 3.0750) - 490.3599

I don't have any data (scaling multipliers/value) for Feb 2003 which was 135.9 (closest to 136.170) Feb 2015.

Seems very unforgiving with any score under 600 raw for essays unless you get at least a 145 raw on MBEs.

User avatar
L’Étranger
Posts: 315
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 4:27 am

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby L’Étranger » Tue Apr 14, 2015 8:37 pm

gaagoots wrote:
L’Étranger wrote:I wanted to try and revive the (hopeless??) statistics discussion above. Here's some more points:

) A couple of posters on another thread have said that for their state bars the mean MBE scaled score reported for Feb '15 is a 136.

2) According to this graph that I got off the NCBE website, it looks like the Feb '15 mean scaled score ties the lowest mean MBE score in the last ten

Would be cool to see if we can start making correlations/conjectures as to whether there is any connection between how the MBE is scaled and how the California essays are scaled. That is, does the low mean scaled score have a good effect, bad effect, or no effect on the amount that the essays are curved.



I used the February 2010 scale for California with a multiplier (Raw written score x 3.0750) - 490.3599

I don't have any data (scaling multipliers/value) for Feb 2003 which was 135.9 (closest to 136.170) Feb 2015.

Seems very unforgiving with any score under 600 raw for essays unless you get at least a 145 raw on MBEs.


Thanks for the extra data. Feb '10 was a brutal multiplier. You needed around a raw 630 to get a passing written score in Feb '10 based on that conversion you posted, which is a pretty damn high raw written score.

Shit...

Also no clear correlation to me right off between average scaled MBE which in Feb '10 looks like it was around 137. One of the best conversions/multipliers of essay scores looks like it was in Feb '14 (around a 600/605 raw was a passing written), and the mean scaled MBE was higher that year than it was in Feb '10.

User avatar
L’Étranger
Posts: 315
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 4:27 am

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby L’Étranger » Tue Apr 14, 2015 8:58 pm

Got some more...

Scaled written score = (Raw written score x 3.1541 ) – 529.503 - Feb '12
Scaled written score = (Raw written score x 2.8372) – 311.0880 - Jul '12
Scaled written score = (Raw written score x 3.6115) - 684.4297 - Jul '13 (around a 590 raw written was a passing written score on Jul '13 exam, wtf?)

Starting to think that no predictions can be made about the written exam scoring based on the scaling of the MBE. Who knows how they do it and what's it based on. One year a raw written of 590 is passing and another year you need a 630 to get a passing score on the written.

comet_halley
Posts: 56
Joined: Sat Oct 25, 2008 12:46 am

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby comet_halley » Tue Apr 14, 2015 10:20 pm

L’Étranger wrote:Got some more...

Scaled written score = (Raw written score x 3.1541 ) – 529.503 - Feb '12
Scaled written score = (Raw written score x 2.8372) – 311.0880 - Jul '12
Scaled written score = (Raw written score x 3.6115) - 684.4297 - Jul '13 (around a 590 raw written was a passing written score on Jul '13 exam, wtf?)

Starting to think that no predictions can be made about the written exam scoring based on the scaling of the MBE. Who knows how they do it and what's it based on. One year a raw written of 590 is passing and another year you need a 630 to get a passing score on the written.


It depends on both the Scaled score of MBE and the original written scores. Assuming that they will adjust all the written scores according to the MBE scores. Just like law school curved grades.

User avatar
LawJunky
Posts: 38
Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2014 3:35 am

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby LawJunky » Tue Apr 14, 2015 11:02 pm

comet_halley wrote:
L’Étranger wrote:Got some more...

Scaled written score = (Raw written score x 3.1541 ) – 529.503 - Feb '12
Scaled written score = (Raw written score x 2.8372) – 311.0880 - Jul '12
Scaled written score = (Raw written score x 3.6115) - 684.4297 - Jul '13 (around a 590 raw written was a passing written score on Jul '13 exam, wtf?)

Starting to think that no predictions can be made about the written exam scoring based on the scaling of the MBE. Who knows how they do it and what's it based on. One year a raw written of 590 is passing and another year you need a 630 to get a passing score on the written.


It depends on both the Scaled score of MBE and the original written scores. Assuming that they will adjust all the written scores according to the MBE scores. Just like law school curved grades.


I guess I am happy to see the smart, mathematically talented, posters saying there appears to be no rhyme or reason to the scaling, and that no relationship between the CA essays and the MBE seems to be present. I never could make any sense out of it. I would think that the MBE and the essays are not related. IE... If I am really good at MBEs, why should I gain an advantage over my peer whose writing in identical to mine? I think that's the theory I've heard expressed so far, although I sense you are saying there may be no correlation at all.

Why is there a multiplier followed by an integer being subtracted? I don't get that. I am able to exactly compute my July 2014 scaled written score, so I certainly believe the formula is correct. Why not just have a multiplier... Is the integer the MBE offset? bizarre..

Thank you and good luck.

LJ

User avatar
a male human
Posts: 1681
Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 2:42 pm

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby a male human » Wed Apr 15, 2015 1:15 pm

Yeah, I agree the MBE and essays shouldn't be correlated... only related as separate components that make up the total score.

There's clearly a linear relationship between scaled and written. (How did they determine the equation? We've already established it is a black box, left up to the statisticians.) But the equation can't have only a multiplier because that would be a completely different relationship compared to a multiplier and a subtraction. If you tweak the multiplier to "make up" for the lack of subtraction/addition, you get a different curve, which may not fit with the scaling they want. If you don't believe me, play with the numbers a bit.

Before everyone's eyes glaze over with "Oh here we go again with AMH's ramblings" I am peacing out early.

User avatar
L’Étranger
Posts: 315
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 4:27 am

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby L’Étranger » Wed Apr 15, 2015 2:35 pm


s1m4
Posts: 202
Joined: Tue Jan 12, 2010 10:04 pm

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby s1m4 » Wed Apr 15, 2015 5:59 pm

L’Étranger wrote:Got some more...

Scaled written score = (Raw written score x 3.1541 ) – 529.503 - Feb '12
Scaled written score = (Raw written score x 2.8372) – 311.0880 - Jul '12
Scaled written score = (Raw written score x 3.6115) - 684.4297 - Jul '13 (around a 590 raw written was a passing written score on Jul '13 exam, wtf?)

Starting to think that no predictions can be made about the written exam scoring based on the scaling of the MBE. Who knows how they do it and what's it based on. One year a raw written of 590 is passing and another year you need a 630 to get a passing score on the written.


Hey - thanks for these stats! How did you track them down? I spent hours searching and only found the ones I provided a page or two back. I checked these out: How the heck was the July 13 curve so easy?! Did they have that weird 13th amendment question? I mean its insane, I'm literally scoring all 60 and below (including PTs) and still passing with 1500 scaled MBE. (which is not even that amazing).

WTH? Any ideas?

User avatar
a male human
Posts: 1681
Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 2:42 pm

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby a male human » Wed Apr 15, 2015 6:20 pm

s1m4 wrote:
L’Étranger wrote:Got some more...

Scaled written score = (Raw written score x 3.1541 ) – 529.503 - Feb '12
Scaled written score = (Raw written score x 2.8372) – 311.0880 - Jul '12
Scaled written score = (Raw written score x 3.6115) - 684.4297 - Jul '13 (around a 590 raw written was a passing written score on Jul '13 exam, wtf?)

Starting to think that no predictions can be made about the written exam scoring based on the scaling of the MBE. Who knows how they do it and what's it based on. One year a raw written of 590 is passing and another year you need a 630 to get a passing score on the written.


Hey - thanks for these stats! How did you track them down? I spent hours searching and only found the ones I provided a page or two back. I checked these out: How the heck was the July 13 curve so easy?! Did they have that weird 13th amendment question? I mean its insane, I'm literally scoring all 60 and below (including PTs) and still passing with 1500 scaled MBE. (which is not even that amazing).

WTH? Any ideas?

Because it was fucking hard! And/or graders were giving low scores.

People were weeping and throwing up after Day 1. Plus I failed that one.

Hootiehoo
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2015 8:20 pm

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby Hootiehoo » Wed Apr 15, 2015 8:27 pm

Direct correlation between mean MBE score and pass rate. Considering all written exams should be identical in difficulty (it's too much of a coincidence that the low MBE years happen to be hard Written years and vice versa), I think it's pretty clear that high MBE = more favorable written curve and vice versa.

Which means this exam pass rate will be a blood bath.

User avatar
L’Étranger
Posts: 315
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 4:27 am

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby L’Étranger » Wed Apr 15, 2015 8:41 pm

Hootiehoo wrote:Direct correlation between mean MBE score and pass rate. Considering all written exams should be identical in difficulty (it's too much of a coincidence that the low MBE years happen to be hard Written years and vice versa), I think it's pretty clear that high MBE = more favorable written curve and vice versa.

Which means this exam pass rate will be a blood bath.


There is truth to this based on a recent comparison of the overall Feb pass rates. According to the sweet souls at the NCBE, the mean scaled MBE score is a measure of our intelligence/preparedness rather than a measure of the test. Thus, because all of the scaling is connected (somehow), it certainly wouldn't surprise me if there is a correlation between us being dumber according to NCBE and a lower overall pass rate (i.e. it's a self-fulfilling prophecy).

What interests me is how much the curve will be on the raw written scores. I've been trying to say that as far as I can tell, the mean scaled MBE score does not correlate with the amount that the raw written is curved. There may be a correlation between the overall pass rate though.

Hootiehoo
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2015 8:20 pm

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby Hootiehoo » Wed Apr 15, 2015 9:15 pm

L’Étranger wrote:
Hootiehoo wrote:Direct correlation between mean MBE score and pass rate. Considering all written exams should be identical in difficulty (it's too much of a coincidence that the low MBE years happen to be hard Written years and vice versa), I think it's pretty clear that high MBE = more favorable written curve and vice versa.

Which means this exam pass rate will be a blood bath.


There is truth to this based on a recent comparison of the overall Feb pass rates. According to the sweet souls at the NCBE, the mean scaled MBE score is a measure of our intelligence/preparedness rather than a measure of the test. Thus, because all of the scaling is connected (somehow), it certainly wouldn't surprise me if there is a correlation between us being dumber according to NCBE and a lower overall pass rate (i.e. it's a self-fulfilling prophecy).

What interests me is how much the curve will be on the raw written scores. I've been trying to say that as far as I can tell, the mean scaled MBE score does not correlate with the amount that the raw written is curved. There may be a correlation between the overall pass rate though.


The curve is less important than the raw score required to achieve 1440 scaled on the written portion of the exam. Curve is going to vary based on internal difficulty of exam, but the integer values reflect the MBE mean, I think. Does anyone have a breakdown of raw scores required to achieve scaled written 1440 by year?

User avatar
L’Étranger
Posts: 315
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 4:27 am

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby L’Étranger » Wed Apr 15, 2015 9:32 pm

Hootiehoo wrote:
L’Étranger wrote:
Hootiehoo wrote:Direct correlation between mean MBE score and pass rate. Considering all written exams should be identical in difficulty (it's too much of a coincidence that the low MBE years happen to be hard Written years and vice versa), I think it's pretty clear that high MBE = more favorable written curve and vice versa.

Which means this exam pass rate will be a blood bath.


There is truth to this based on a recent comparison of the overall Feb pass rates. According to the sweet souls at the NCBE, the mean scaled MBE score is a measure of our intelligence/preparedness rather than a measure of the test. Thus, because all of the scaling is connected (somehow), it certainly wouldn't surprise me if there is a correlation between us being dumber according to NCBE and a lower overall pass rate (i.e. it's a self-fulfilling prophecy).

What interests me is how much the curve will be on the raw written scores. I've been trying to say that as far as I can tell, the mean scaled MBE score does not correlate with the amount that the raw written is curved. There may be a correlation between the overall pass rate though.


The curve is less important than the raw score required to achieve 1440 scaled on the written portion of the exam. Curve is going to vary based on internal difficulty of exam, but the integer values reflect the MBE mean, I think. Does anyone have a breakdown of raw scores required to achieve scaled written 1440 by year?


That's what I mean by "curve." It's a different formula every test, and that why the raw score that you need to pass changes with each test.

Hootiehoo
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2015 8:20 pm

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby Hootiehoo » Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:20 pm

L’Étranger wrote:
Hootiehoo wrote:
L’Étranger wrote:
Hootiehoo wrote:Direct correlation between mean MBE score and pass rate. Considering all written exams should be identical in difficulty (it's too much of a coincidence that the low MBE years happen to be hard Written years and vice versa), I think it's pretty clear that high MBE = more favorable written curve and vice versa.

Which means this exam pass rate will be a blood bath.


There is truth to this based on a recent comparison of the overall Feb pass rates. According to the sweet souls at the NCBE, the mean scaled MBE score is a measure of our intelligence/preparedness rather than a measure of the test. Thus, because all of the scaling is connected (somehow), it certainly wouldn't surprise me if there is a correlation between us being dumber according to NCBE and a lower overall pass rate (i.e. it's a self-fulfilling prophecy).

What interests me is how much the curve will be on the raw written scores. I've been trying to say that as far as I can tell, the mean scaled MBE score does not correlate with the amount that the raw written is curved. There may be a correlation between the overall pass rate though.


The curve is less important than the raw score required to achieve 1440 scaled on the written portion of the exam. Curve is going to vary based on internal difficulty of exam, but the integer values reflect the MBE mean, I think. Does anyone have a breakdown of raw scores required to achieve scaled written 1440 by year?


That's what I mean by "curve." It's a different formula every test, and that why the raw score that you need to pass changes with each test.


I meant the curve calculation -- typing quickly. Harder to compare 2.98 - 400 or whatever than 600, 630, etc. If someone does the reverse math to figure out the raw written required for 1440 each year and compares against MBE I think there will be a clear trend.

calbarexamftw
Posts: 5
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:46 pm

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby calbarexamftw » Mon Apr 20, 2015 9:48 am

Has anyone done the work yet in comparing non-CA bar passage rates for Feb 2015 to the equivalents for Feb. 2014 to make prognostications about the difficulty of the Feb. 2015 MBE?

comet_halley
Posts: 56
Joined: Sat Oct 25, 2008 12:46 am

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby comet_halley » Mon Apr 20, 2015 5:28 pm

According to PA statistics, the national mean MBE scaled score of Feb. 2015 is 136.2. So, the CA passing rate should be around 40+/-2 percent.

calbarexamftw wrote:Has anyone done the work yet in comparing non-CA bar passage rates for Feb 2015 to the equivalents for Feb. 2014 to make prognostications about the difficulty of the Feb. 2015 MBE?

User avatar
L’Étranger
Posts: 315
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 4:27 am

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby L’Étranger » Mon Apr 20, 2015 9:14 pm

comet_halley wrote:According to PA statistics, the national mean MBE scaled score of Feb. 2015 is 136.2. So, the CA passing rate should be around 40+/-2 percent.

calbarexamftw wrote:Has anyone done the work yet in comparing non-CA bar passage rates for Feb 2015 to the equivalents for Feb. 2014 to make prognostications about the difficulty of the Feb. 2015 MBE?


You may be right but the passage rate is not directly related to the mean scaled MBE.

Just BSing, I can point to the overall Feb. passage rate having been on a general upturn since 2011 when the overall Feb pass rate jumped into the 40s. So assuming the trend continues, I think you're right that a passage rate in the high 30s or low 40s is a good bet.

Unless, however, the essay performances were really bad and the essays are not adjusted by scaling to a reasonable passage rate. I'm cynical, and I don't believe that the CA bar feels compelled to pass any particular number, especially in Feb. The passage rate could be 20% or 15% too. The essays were tough, and kinda screwy in my opinion.

WonderWoman
Posts: 16
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2015 11:07 am

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby WonderWoman » Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:19 pm

I just looked at the file on Cal Bar's site titled February 2015 under past exams. It contains both the essays and the PTs. Here's the link: http://admissions.calbar.ca.gov/Portals ... ions_R.pdf. Why they are in one file is puzzling. Usually, the PTs are in another file.

Has anyone else used this calculator to make yourself feel better? https://one-timers.com/calculate-your-f ... exam-grade

User avatar
a male human
Posts: 1681
Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 2:42 pm

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby a male human » Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:42 pm

I would use the calculator to estimate my scores and generate a low, mid and high range of possible scores. It made me even more nervous.

User avatar
Elms
Posts: 180
Joined: Sat Aug 30, 2008 2:06 pm

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby Elms » Fri Apr 24, 2015 2:03 pm

In today's episode of Elms' depressing thoughts: "If I fail the bar, at least I don't have to be a lawyer."

:(

User avatar
a male human
Posts: 1681
Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 2:42 pm

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby a male human » Fri Apr 24, 2015 2:14 pm

Elms wrote:In today's episode of Elms' depressing thoughts: "If I fail the bar, at least I don't have to be a lawyer."

:(

Was this your final attempt at the bar?

barexamcollector
Posts: 4
Joined: Tue Jul 29, 2014 9:11 pm

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby barexamcollector » Fri Apr 24, 2015 4:16 pm

a male human wrote:
Elms wrote:In today's episode of Elms' depressing thoughts: "If I fail the bar, at least I don't have to be a lawyer." :(

Was this your final attempt at the bar?


This was try #2 for me so if I don't pass this time...it's my final try at least for a while. I've got other states I can fall back on.

User avatar
Elms
Posts: 180
Joined: Sat Aug 30, 2008 2:06 pm

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby Elms » Fri Apr 24, 2015 5:00 pm

barexamcollector wrote:
a male human wrote:
Elms wrote:In today's episode of Elms' depressing thoughts: "If I fail the bar, at least I don't have to be a lawyer." :(

Was this your final attempt at the bar?


This was try #2 for me so if I don't pass this time...it's my final try at least for a while. I've got other states I can fall back on.


I'm not sure. This was my first attempt at CA. I'm actually barred in IL, but I now live in CA. So I took time off to take the bar here. Taking time off has made me realize how much thinking about going back to work in a legal job depresses me.

If I pass, then, yay. That was the goal, I guess? I've tried to find a job here that doesn't require CA admission with zero luck.

If I fail... I feel like I have a good excuse to go find something else to do with my life. (Moving back to IL (aka frozen tundra land) isn't an option, because of family circumstances.)

morescotchplease
Posts: 91
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 12:46 am

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby morescotchplease » Mon Apr 27, 2015 7:03 pm

waiting sucks

User avatar
SpAcEmAn SpLiFF
Posts: 291
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2008 5:16 pm

Re: 2015 February California Bar Exam

Postby SpAcEmAn SpLiFF » Tue Apr 28, 2015 1:16 pm

I've been hearing people say that 5/15 is when we should expect our scores. Is that a hard date, or is this just some sort of soft deadline?




Return to “Bar Exam Prep and Discussion Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests