Applying Next Cycle, Will Drop In Apps Continue?

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Will The Drop Continue

Yes
31
78%
No
9
23%
 
Total votes: 40

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PDX4343
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Applying Next Cycle, Will Drop In Apps Continue?

Postby PDX4343 » Sat Nov 02, 2013 4:24 am

So I'm a splitter, and I'm hearing all this great news about app drops, and how my LSAT score is worth more to top schools now than it was in the past. But unfortunately I can't apply to law school until next cycle. So I'm just curious if people think that the decline in apps will continue into the 2014-15 cycle?

california2013
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Re: Applying Next Cycle, Will Drop In Apps Continue?

Postby california2013 » Sat Nov 02, 2013 4:31 am

PDX4343 wrote:So I'm a splitter, and I'm hearing all this great news about app drops, and how my LSAT score is worth more to top schools now than it was in the past. But unfortunately I can't apply to law school until next cycle. So I'm just curious if people think that the decline in apps will continue into the 2014-15 cycle?


NO. schools will adjust after this year cycle.

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PDX4343
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Re: Applying Next Cycle, Will Drop In Apps Continue?

Postby PDX4343 » Sat Nov 02, 2013 4:50 am

I'm sure schools will continue to adjust to the decline in applications as they have been. I'm concerned with whether or not the drop in applications will continue into the next cycle.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Applying Next Cycle, Will Drop In Apps Continue?

Postby Tiago Splitter » Sat Nov 02, 2013 2:29 pm

The number of LSAT takers continues to decline. October was down 10.9% year over year. As long as that continues, expect apps to keep declining.

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PDX4343
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Re: Applying Next Cycle, Will Drop In Apps Continue?

Postby PDX4343 » Sat Nov 02, 2013 4:13 pm

Ahh Okay that's what I was looking for. Thanks for the info!

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dardardelight
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Re: Applying Next Cycle, Will Drop In Apps Continue?

Postby dardardelight » Thu Dec 12, 2013 1:38 am

Bump

I'm interested in the same question the OP has . I predict that LSAT medians at t14 will mostly remain the same as that of this year's incoming class. I'm really banking on a 172+ LSAT, so I really hope that there's not a huge amount of people who are scheming to capitalize on the downward trend in apps and just ace the June LSAT.

Is this even possible? But yeah, good question -- if there is anybody who can predict trends or can give a sound prediction, please throw in your 2 cents!

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MyNameIsFlynn!
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Re: Applying Next Cycle, Will Drop In Apps Continue?

Postby MyNameIsFlynn! » Thu Dec 12, 2013 10:51 pm

dardardelight wrote:Bump

I'm interested in the same question the OP has . I predict that LSAT medians at t14 will mostly remain the same as that of this year's incoming class. I'm really banking on a 172+ LSAT, so I really hope that there's not a huge amount of people who are scheming to capitalize on the downward trend in apps and just ace the June LSAT.

Is this even possible? But yeah, good question -- if there is anybody who can predict trends or can give a sound prediction, please throw in your 2 cents!


jfc you bumped to literally ask if we have a crystal ball

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Amity
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Re: Applying Next Cycle, Will Drop In Apps Continue?

Postby Amity » Thu Dec 12, 2013 11:12 pm

Once you’ve committed the time and $ to take the LSAT, you are pretty much hooked (especially if you score +160).

Given that schools are stepping up with substantial tuition breaks I think applications may only go down a little. The one caveat is if schools have to post REAL employment numbers — that in itself might discourage a significant number of applicants. It’s one thing to take a chance on a school with a 92% employment stat versus a 62% employment stat. If one meshes all the schools together the employment rate would only be around 50%. Depends if the applicants can figure that out.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Applying Next Cycle, Will Drop In Apps Continue?

Postby Tiago Splitter » Thu Dec 12, 2013 11:18 pm

Amity wrote:Once you’ve committed the time and $ to take the LSAT, you are pretty much hooked (especially if you score +160).

Given that schools are stepping up with substantial tuition breaks I think applications may only go down a little. The one caveat is if schools have to post REAL employment numbers — that in itself might discourage a significant number of applicants. It’s one thing to take a chance on a school with a 92% employment stat versus a 62% employment stat. If one meshes all the schools together the employment rate would only be around 50%. Depends if the applicants can figure that out.

FWIW applicants are down over 13% YTD.

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Amity
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Re: Applying Next Cycle, Will Drop In Apps Continue?

Postby Amity » Thu Dec 12, 2013 11:27 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:FWIW applicants are down over 13% YTD.

Thus, if my assumed numbers are right, the application pool dropped from 40,000 to 34,800. Meaning that 5,200 students shall escape from a jobless future and a big monthly tuition bill. (Versus 14,800 being thrown under a bus)

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Applying Next Cycle, Will Drop In Apps Continue?

Postby Tiago Splitter » Thu Dec 12, 2013 11:35 pm

Amity wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:FWIW applicants are down over 13% YTD.

Thus, if my assumed numbers are right, the application pool dropped from 40,000 to 34,800. Meaning that 5,200 students shall escape from a jobless future and a big monthly tuition bill. (Versus 14,800 being thrown under a bus)

Do we know how many people matriculated last year? It was 44,000 or so two years ago. 59,000 applied last year so it was probably about 40,000 starting but I haven't seen the exact number.

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Summerz
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Re: Applying Next Cycle, Will Drop In Apps Continue?

Postby Summerz » Thu Dec 12, 2013 11:54 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
Amity wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:FWIW applicants are down over 13% YTD.

Thus, if my assumed numbers are right, the application pool dropped from 40,000 to 34,800. Meaning that 5,200 students shall escape from a jobless future and a big monthly tuition bill. (Versus 14,800 being thrown under a bus)

Do we know how many people matriculated last year? It was 44,000 or so two years ago. 59,000 applied last year so it was probably about 40,000 starting but I haven't seen the exact number.

As law schools cut their budgets by firing law professors their tuitions will likely fall. Simultaneously some schools are inflating their employment numbers with school funded jobs. Until I see a few schools close their doors, I believe the best case scenario is a third more grads then available jobs. :(




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