Richie Tenenbaum wrote:guano wrote:Cinderella wrote:Ah I see. I thought they were going after the gambler's fallacy. Thanks.
There are lots of fallacies prevalent among gamblers, but a good statistician should be able to win more often than not (although casinos make it as hard as possible)
The only table game that I know of where the odds can actually be in the player's favor is blackjack (and it requires card counting to tilt the odds back towards the player--which is hard with a 6 deck shoe, esp. when I don't think most casinos play all the way down).
I thought most casinos play with an 8 deck shoe these days (and only play about half way down)
Roulette is another one. The house takes 5.3% in American Roulette and 2.7% in French Roulette (which is one of the reasons I prefer French Roulette). While the odds per spin are always the same, it's possible to work out the odds for a series of bets and usually you'll come out ahead. The only problem is that you'd be doing strategic betting and nickle&diming your way through (think profiting $15 on a $100 bet), so it could take quite a few spins just to double your money, but if you hit a really unlucky streak, you quickly delve deeply into the hole.
A simplified explanation is that if the table hits red 10 times in a row, statistically you should be up predominantly black numbers thereafter. Of course, it's always possible to hit red 20 times in a row, so during a particularly bad spell you're fucked.