Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

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splittertothemax
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Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby splittertothemax » Wed Aug 15, 2012 10:48 am

I'm inquriing to lawyers that now have experience in the real world what their job prospects are like? Is it true there aren't any jobs or high paying jobs?

What salary range were you offered? How much debt are you in?

Is it worth going?

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AlanShore
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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby AlanShore » Wed Aug 15, 2012 10:52 am

Your questions are way too broad. No, it is untrue that there are no longer any high paying jobs (or jobs for that matter). Many ls grads will not get a lucrative job and many will be jobless.. but many grads graduating out of t14s will do well. Below the t14, the students who have top grades and/or get lucky will also come out with good jobs. The answer to your question depends on your goals, how much debt you're taking on, and what school you're going to.

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rayiner
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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby rayiner » Wed Aug 15, 2012 11:55 am

Went to a T14. Most friends have a high paying or otherwise desirable job lined up. A sizable minority have nothing at all. Doesn't seem to be a lot of middle ground.

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bk1
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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby bk1 » Wed Aug 15, 2012 11:59 am

Moved to appropriate forum.

w2e
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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby w2e » Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:20 pm

splittertothemax wrote:I'm inquriing to lawyers that now have experience in the real world what their job prospects are like? Is it true there aren't any jobs or high paying jobs?

What salary range were you offered? How much debt are you in?

Is it worth going?


Probably not worth going unless you get into a very prestigious school:

http://www.law.com/jsp/nlj/PubArticleNL ... s_suggests

http://www.americanlawyer.com/PubArticl ... 0715122018

ksllaw
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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby ksllaw » Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:11 pm

rayiner wrote:Went to a T14. Most friends have a high paying or otherwise desirable job lined up. A sizable minority have nothing at all. Doesn't seem to be a lot of middle ground.



Rayiner, when you say a sizable minority have nothing at all, are you saying a sizable minority of T14 grads have nothing at all...or a sizable minority of the entire law grad pool?

I have been reading and hearing that even T14's - other than Harvard, Stanford, and Yale - are no longer immune in the market. I don't know if this is accurate, but from another forum I saw someone said that the only people with very good shots at good paying lawyer jobs are:

**Top of the Class T14 (not top 50%,..but closer to top 25%)
**Top 5% of Class non-T14

All others, including bottom 50% of T14 would likely not be looked at or competitive enough for good paying job in our market and many bottom 50%er's of T14's may end up doing document review as temporary or contract workers. (These were sort of the consolidated views I've been coming across recently.)

In my other thread here:
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=191481
Huffington Post - LS Grads 55% Chance of FT Job in 9 Months

We discussed how large percentages of Ivy League and T14 grads are statistically NOT getting meaningful employment in law (we defined "meaningful")...and there's discussion of a video where Paul Campos (Colorado Law Prof.) and Deborah Rhode (Stanford Law Prof.) discuss the problems of the legal educatino system and identify ONLY Harvard, Stanford, and Yale as places where people could go today and reasonably expect near 100% meaningful law employment that would be enough money to repay their loans and have a good standard of living.

Lots of horror stories...one 2008 NYU grad in the video worked two years in a big law firm in NY, got laid off, and has since live in his parents' basement. This person graduated in the middle of his class. But once out of law and trying to apply to get a horizontal position, Campos said he was up against people with years of experience (able to litigate this and that and do so much more) and also many others from good schools....such that this guy could not get a single law job offer.

11% of the UVA (Top 10 law school) grads were given jobs BY UVA to bump employment statistics, but these were like jobs filing papers or what not for low wages (I believe that's what was said in the vid)...It was something like 46 UVA law grads out of a class of 300 something having to work low wage, temp positions.

Campos and Rhode say it's the combo of a contracting law market + high tution and out of control admissions that's creating such bleak conditions even for some top law school grads.

Some may land a good job at a top or big law firm, but even then it's not safe from what people I've come across have been saying (this part is the "word on the street" type chatter - not from Campos).

They'll be given an annual review each year (where their output is placed against their peers) and when looking at how many stay past the first year it's not good either. Big firms, people have been telling me, have an over supply of new grads to choose from out of T14 schools each year. So if a firm's incoming class is not stellar (or up to the firm's par) they can release them after the first year and recruit another T14 grad.

Huge supply of law grads (even from T14) + small # of good jobs = tough market for law grads (even affecting top schools now).

I've been told and hearing that big firms can have a revolving door of bringinng in new T14 grads over and over and over again until they find an absolute stellar one and allow them to stay beyond year 1. Then, they have to make it past year two for annual review (in another tough round of competition)...and then year three, ...year four, and so on, until partner stage. The majority, I'm told, don't make it to partner statistically. A lawyer may make it past year one...year two, etc. But it can be tough to make it all the way through. It's like trying to make the NBA, lol?

But hopefully if one can get big law for at least three to four years, then they'll be able to save and pay off a sizable chunk of law school loans during that time. From there I'm not sure what happens. How likely is the NYU situation with the law grad living in his parents' basement vs. being able to make horizontal moves in our tough labor market? I haven't heard as much about or talked to that many people about this stage of employment.
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rayiner
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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby rayiner » Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:31 pm

ksllaw wrote:
rayiner wrote:Went to a T14. Most friends have a high paying or otherwise desirable job lined up. A sizable minority have nothing at all. Doesn't seem to be a lot of middle ground.



Rayiner, when you say a sizable minority have nothing at all, are you saying a sizable minority of T14 grads have nothing at all...or a sizable minority of the entire law grad pool?

I have been reading and hearing that even T14's, other than H, S, and Yale, are no longer immune in the market. I don't know if this is accurate, but from another forum I saw someone say that the only people with very good shots at jobs are:

**Top of the Class T14 (not top 50%,..but closer to top 25%)
**Top 5% of Class non-T14

All others, including bottom 50% of T14 would likely not be looked at for good paying job in our market and many T14's may end up doing document review as temporary or contract workers.

In my other thread:

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=191481
Huffington Post - LS Grads 55% Chance of FT Job in 9 Months


We discussed how large percentages of Ivy League and T14 grads are statistically NOT getting meaningful employment in law (we defined "meaningful")...and there's discussion of a video where Paul Campos (Colorado Law Prof.) and Deborah Rhode (Stanford Law Prof.) discuss the problems of the legal educatino system and identify ONLY Harvard, Stanford, and Yale as places where people could reasonably go and expect meaningful law employment that would be enough money to repay their loans.

Lots of horror stories...one 2008 NYU grad in the video worked two years in a big law firm in NY, got laid off, and has since live in his parents' basement. This person graduated smack in the middle of his class. But once out of law and trying to apply to get a horizontal position, Campos said he was up against people with years of experience (able to litigate this and that and do so much more) and also many others from good schools....such that this guy could not get a single law job offer.

11% of the UVA (Top 10 law school) grads were given jobs BY UVA to bump employment statistics, but these were like jobs filing papers or what not for like low wages (I believe that's what was said in the vid)...It was like 46 UVA law grads...out of a class of like 300 something....having to work like min. wage.

Campos and Rhode say it's the combo of a contracting law market + high tution and out of control admissions that's creating such bleak conditions even if TOP law school grads.

Some may land a job, but even then it's not safe...they'll be given an annual review each year and when you look at how many stay past the first year it's not good either. Law firms have a HUGE supply of new grads to choose from from T14 schools EVERy YEAR. So if a firms incoming class is not STELLAR....they can release them after the first year and recruit another T14 grad....

Huge supply of law grads (even from T14) + small # of GOOD jobs = tough market even for law grads of top schools.

Big firms can have a revolving door of bringinng in new T14 grads over and over and over again until they find an absolute stellar one and allow them to stay beyond year 1....then they have to make it past year 2 for annual review...3...4, etc. until partner stage. Most never make it to partner statistically. It's like trying to make the NBA, lol.


I was referring to people at my T14. Most people have big law. A sizeable minority have nothing. Some of the people who don't had bad grades, but most had good grades but wanted PI or government jobs, which are impossible to get.

Most of your statements are hyperbole. Below median grades at a T14 do not disqualify you from big law, much less a job. Few people leave after only one year. There are lots of jobs post-big law besides partner at a V10. Partnership odds are much better than many assume. At some firms, especially those in secondary markets, a substantial minority of associates will make partner.

ksllaw
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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby ksllaw » Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:59 pm

Rayiner - While I would hope that the situation is better than I described, I think perhaps you're thinking of the market pre-2007? (possibly?)

It seems today's market is tough for even T14. I'm not saying your personal anecdotal experiences aren't true (in small n sample size)...but I think I trust the Stanford Law Prof. and Colorado Law Prof.'s research analysis more closely than current "word on the street" type perspectives, as to the broader law market (even for top law school grads they mention).

In the Deborah Rhode and Paul Campos video in my other thread, they specifically give the numbers for T14 schools. And the statistics are quite bad. Over 50% of Michigan grads...30% of Columbia grads...33% of Duke grads...etc. can't find acceptable employment (jobs with pay high enough to pay off their loans and acceptable standard of living). That last part was key, because employment of any kind is certaily attainable, but it's the issue of what kind of employment. And when we factor that in Deborah Rhode and Paul Campos give some troubling numbers closer to what I suggested I believe.

I HOPE I am wrong and I HOPE Deborah Rhode and Paul Campos are wrong, but from other forums I'm reading and the analysis of the two law professors, the overall word out on the street really seems quite bad. I would be very very happy though if we were wrong!!! But I'm just not too optimistic that's the case.
Last edited by ksllaw on Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:20 pm, edited 3 times in total.

theintern
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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby theintern » Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:03 pm

ksllaw wrote:Rayiner - While I would hope that the situation is better than I described, I think perhaps you're thinking of the market pre-2007.

Today's market is tough for even T14. I'm not saying your personal anecdotal experiences aren't true (in small n sample size)...but I have to trust a Stanford Law Prof. and a Colorado Law Prof.'s research over your opinion as to the broader market (even for top law school grads they mention).

In the Deborah Rhode and Paul Campos video in my other thread, they specifically give the numbers for T14 schools. And the statistics are quite bad. Over 50% of Michigan grads...30% of Columbia grads...33% of Duke grads...etc. can't find acceptable employment (jobs with pay high enough to pay off their loans and acceptable standard of living). That last part was key, because employment of any kind is certaily attainable, but it's the issue of what kind of employment. And when we factor that in Deborah Rhode and Paul Campos give some troubling numbers closer to what I suggested.

I HOPE I am wrong and I HOPE Deborah Rhode and Paul Campos are wrong...but from other forums I'm reading and the word of two law professors, they word is pretty bad. I would be very very happy though if we were wrong!!! But I'm just not optimistic that's the case.


who invited the wet blanket.

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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby bk1 » Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:04 pm

ksllaw wrote:Rayiner - While I would hope that the situation is better than I described, I think perhaps you're thinking of the market pre-2007.

Today's market is tough for even T14. I'm not saying your personal anecdotal experiences aren't true (in small n sample size)...but I have to trust a Stanford Law Prof. and a Colorado Law Prof.'s research over your opinion as to the broader market (even for top law school grads they mention).

In the Deborah Rhode and Paul Campos video in my other thread, they specifically give the numbers for T14 schools. And the statistics are quite bad. Over 50% of Michigan grads...30% of Columbia grads...33% of Duke grads...etc. can't find acceptable employment (jobs with pay high enough to pay off their loans and acceptable standard of living). That last part was key, because employment of any kind is certaily attainable, but it's the issue of what kind of employment. And when we factor that in Deborah Rhode and Paul Campos give some troubling numbers closer to what I suggested.

I HOPE I am wrong and I HOPE Deborah Rhode and Paul Campos are wrong...but from other forums I'm reading and the word of two law professors, they word is pretty bad. I would be very very happy though if we were wrong!!! But I'm just not optimistic that's the case.


What Campos/Rhode have found doesn't really contradict Rayiner's post.

ksllaw
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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby ksllaw » Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:09 pm

I suppose it's perspective. ...For sure T14 law grads are getting good jobs. But it's the percentages and how we view them.

I think if 33% of Duke grads are struggling to get acceptable employment, while 67% finding good employment may sound good and is, in fact, the majority, still 33% is a sizable chunk not getting acceptable employment.

It's worse at other schools in the T14 from their numbers. So even if 50% are doing well, I think for me personally that's not that great.
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smaug_
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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby smaug_ » Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:10 pm

ksllaw wrote:stuff


The irony here is that you're talking to the person who went through the T14 statistics more thoroughly than anybody else on this board. Rayiner isn't Campos, but his under/unemployment thread is a better resource than almost anything out there. You can go look at the numbers. Rayiner very explicitly isn't a sunshine and rainbows poster here.

I think you need to read more and post less.

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rayiner
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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby rayiner » Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:15 pm

ksllaw wrote:Rayiner - While I would hope that the situation is better than I described, I think perhaps you're thinking of the market pre-2007.

Today's market is tough for even T14. I'm not saying your personal anecdotal experiences aren't true (in small n sample size)...but I have to trust a Stanford Law Prof. and a Colorado Law Prof.'s research over your opinion as to the broader market (even for top law school grads they mention).

In the Deborah Rhode and Paul Campos video in my other thread, they specifically give the numbers for T14 schools. And the statistics are quite bad. Over 50% of Michigan grads...30% of Columbia grads...33% of Duke grads...etc. can't find acceptable employment (jobs with pay high enough to pay off their loans and acceptable standard of living). That last part was key, because employment of any kind is certaily attainable, but it's the issue of what kind of employment. And when we factor that in Deborah Rhode and Paul Campos give some troubling numbers closer to what I suggested.

I HOPE I am wrong and I HOPE Deborah Rhode and Paul Campos are wrong...but from other forums I'm reading and the word of two law professors, they word is pretty bad. I would be very very happy though if we were wrong!!! But I'm just not optimistic that's the case.


I'm C/O 2012 at NU. I'd say maybe 15% of the class is still looking, and maybe 5-10% found something that wasn't a great job (I.e. less than six figure or not IBR eligible). I'd consider that to be a sizeable minority.

I also think you're misinterpreting Paul Campos's data. I ran a vey similar analysis, and it's more like 20% Columbia, 30% Michigan, etc, for C/ 2012. IBR eligible PI jobs are a good outcome, one that many people want. At some schools with substantial JD-MBA programs, a big chunk of the business/industry jobs are good too. 50% of Michigan may have not gone into big law, but 10% got federal clerkships and another 10% or so got legitimate, non-school under PI jobs.

And yeah, 30% isn't great. I never said it was. I said that most people have big law and a sizeable minority have nothing. At NU, at least, that's quite true.
Last edited by rayiner on Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

ksllaw
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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby ksllaw » Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:16 pm

hibiki wrote:
ksllaw wrote:stuff


The irony here is that you're talking to the person who went through the T14 statistics more thoroughly than anybody else on this board. Rayiner isn't Campos, but his under/unemployment thread is a better resource than almost anything out there. You can go look at the numbers. Rayiner very explicitly isn't a sunshine and rainbows poster here.

I think you need to read more and post less.



Very well aware of that. lol. Sunyp recommended his thread to me. I enjoyed and appreciated rayiner's thread. It was interesting. :) I should apologize if my online typing tone of voice may not show it or may come off just a bit abrasive ...just the result of a bit of sugar and excitement reading/typing fast this morning.

But the Campos numbers adjusted for "acceptable" employment for top law school grads is different (I think). One can have employment doing min. or low wage labor, such as 11% of UVA's graduating law school class that was hired by UVA to work in their office to boost employment stats.. But we shouldn't consider that a good outcome and real or acceptable wage for a law post-grad.

I think the 3/5/2012 talk by Campos and Rhode is pretty alarming. It gives the numbers adjusted for "meaningful" employment for new law grads from top/T14 schools like Columbiaa, NYU, Michigan, Duke, and so on.

But, no, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with opinions here, but just hoping to clarify areas here and there, ask for perspective/opinions, and would also very rapidly and gladly concede any points if I'm wrong. I certainly respect true facts and am glad rayiner did an interesting post on these concerns in the past. :)

So, no negativity here...lots of peace and respect!
Last edited by ksllaw on Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:19 pm, edited 4 times in total.

dissonance1848
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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby dissonance1848 » Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:20 pm

Rayiner, you've mentioned before that some people strike out because of holding out for PI/gov jobs. Obviously the data on that is mostly conjecture, but what is your speculation on the percentage of people who end up in that situation (since you've mentioned that a large number of them have the grades to get a biglaw job through OCI and mass mail)?

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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby rayiner » Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:34 pm

dissonance1848 wrote:Rayiner, you've mentioned before that some people strike out because of holding out for PI/gov jobs. Obviously the data on that is mostly conjecture, but what is your speculation on the percentage of people who end up in that situation (since you've mentioned that a large number of them have the grades to get a biglaw job through OCI and mass mail)?


If you look at the NU employment stats for C/O 2011, http://www.law.northwestern.edu/career/statistics, only 4% got a long-term, full-time PI job. I think for C/O 2012, the numbers are only a little bit, if any, better. Meanwhile, I'd estimate over 10% of my section wanted a PI job from the beginning.*

* Because of JD-MBA's and dat-work experience, I'd say another 10% either didn't want law or had something lined up from before school, for a total of about 20% not gunning for big law.

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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby nickb285 » Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:58 pm

w2e wrote:Probably not worth going unless you get into a very prestigious school:

http://www.law.com/jsp/nlj/PubArticleNL ... s_suggests

http://www.americanlawyer.com/PubArticl ... 0715122018


Not entirely disagreeing with your conclusion (though I'd add "...or can attend for relatively little money/debt" to your first sentence), but the first article you link relies on the notion that someone with a bachelor's degree and three years' work experience is making $40-60k in this economy for its calculation of opportunity cost. Having been out of school for nearly three years with my BA, I can count on one hand the number of people I graduated with who are making any sort of salary, or in any hourly job that pays more than about $15/hour. Law school is still a bad idea for many people who wind up going, and no guarantee of job prospects should be assumed, but the idea that the majority of people with bachelor's degrees and a few years of WE are making middle-class, house-in-the-suburbs kind of money is pretty laughable.

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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby JJW » Wed Aug 15, 2012 3:12 pm

After the first day of OCI and a few job fairs, word is that firms are not hiring all that many SAs. I saw on a thread where a NYC Senior Interviewer referred to one recent class as the “lost generation” of attorneys. That concern certainly exists for this class (to what degree, too early to tell). The good news seems to be that firms are not dropping their opening salaries and in some instances pay is going up (not speaking of the $160K crowd).

Those in the top third of their T14 school should be fine, but then the battle lines will be drawn between the median-ish T14ers and the top X” percent of non-T14ers. I would imagine that the majority of those on this thread fall into one of these two cells.

From past experience, how long after OCI does it take to gauge the likely outcome of a given year?

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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby ksllaw » Wed Aug 15, 2012 3:29 pm

rayiner wrote:I'm C/O 2012 at NU. I'd say maybe 15% of the class is still looking, and maybe 5-10% found something that wasn't a great job (I.e. less than six figure or not IBR eligible). I'd consider that to be a sizeable minority.

I also think you're misinterpreting Paul Campos's data. I ran a vey similar analysis, and it's more like 20% Columbia, 30% Michigan, etc, for C/ 2012. IBR eligible PI jobs are a good outcome, one that many people want. At some schools with substantial JD-MBA programs, a big chunk of the business/industry jobs are good too. 50% of Michigan may have not gone into big law, but 10% got federal clerkships and another 10% or so got legitimate, non-school under PI jobs.

And yeah, 30% isn't great. I never said it was. I said that most people have big law and a sizeable minority have nothing. At NU, at least, that's quite true.


Thanks, I appreciate the feedback.

Yeah, I guess people can perhaps watch the Campos and Rhodes video and see what they make of the numbers?:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2gvnPTH ... ure=relmfu

I'm not 100% sure of how he ran his numbers, but others can watch and probably do a better job deciphering it with better familarity with the "law jobs" terminology he uses. As an OL and not yet in law school, nor being 100% sure of the terms he's using, I wasn't exactly sure what to make of it. But it does seem Campos includes some of those clerkships and public interest positions in his numbers (that you say aren't included), no?

(I'm not familiar enough with the terminology to be sure here, so merely asking at this point!)

Here's what he says:
(starting at time 10:42:

"What's happening at the elite law schools? Well, I've come up with a little statistic I call high status law employment placement, which is calculated with people getting jobs with firms that pay six-figure salaries - mainly NLJ 250 firms, but also a few boutique-y firms that pay those kinds of salaries - Article 3 clerkships, prestigious government jobs, and dedicated public interest LRAP students who were going that route from the beginning.

So, these I think it's fair to say pretty much encapsulates what would be considered an acceptable employment outcome for most people going to an elite law school. So sort of the whole point. The whole point of going to an elite law school is so you can get those kinds of jobs. ...

Anways, bottom line, how many people graduating from elite law schools right now with an acceptable employment outcome from a [can't make out what he's saying here ] perspective? Here are the numbers:

Columbia 64.5%...

Chicago 59%

NYU 53%....

Michigan 47.4%...

Georgetown 41% ... Georgetown graduates 650 people a year, because they take 100 transfers every year. You probably didn't know that. This giant factory essentially in a completely saturated market - D.C. ..."



Maybe we can more carefully analyze his numbers?


Campos also gives these numbers (for the entire ABA law class of 2010 - not specific to T14):

"Perhaps 10,000 out of 44,000 ABA law school grads in 2010 were earning $63,000 or more 9 months after graduation." (he mentions it around 9:00 min mark)
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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby smaug_ » Wed Aug 15, 2012 4:00 pm

Well, we're talking about a difference of 15% at the top end, right? Let's look at Columbia because it is easy. Campos says 65% and rayiner says about 80%.

If we look at the number of students employed with firms that employ 250 or more people, we have 58.6%. If we add federal clerkships we're at 66.7%. If we add public service and government (thus LRAP eligible) jobs and subtract the school funded rate, we're at 72.9%. From here things get more nebulous. There's 4.2% in business and given the number of JD/MBAs some of them are likely legitimate. Some of the jobs in smaller firms will still be desirable.

But, even using that quick math we can see that something is off about the numbers Campos listed. I'm not saying things are ideal. 20% is nearly as scary as 27%. I don't think anyone knows the actual number. The number of un/underemployed is significant and it is non-zero but it likely isn't 35%.

What I'm saying is that with Law School Transparency and other resources, you can be an informed consumer. Nobody is claiming that things are at pre-recession levels. All schools below HYS (and probably even HYS to its own extent) entail risk. I just think at this point it's beating a dead horse. The numbers are more out there than they've been. Look at them and form your own opinions.

ETA: if you really care you can go through the very detailed Michigan info and make your own judgment. It would be interesting to see how things add up there. link

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dingbat
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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby dingbat » Wed Aug 15, 2012 4:15 pm

I love how non-T14s are all lumped together, as if UCLA or UT are the same as NYLS or Cooley
It is far more nuanced than that, even within the T14 (try comparing Georgetown to Columbia)

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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby ksllaw » Wed Aug 15, 2012 5:01 pm

JJW wrote:After the first day of OCI and a few job fairs, word is that firms are not hiring all that many SAs. I saw on a thread where a NYC Senior Interviewer referred to one recent class as the “lost generation” of attorneys. That concern certainly exists for this class (to what degree, too early to tell). The good news seems to be that firms are not dropping their opening salaries and in some instances pay is going up (not speaking of the $160K crowd).

Those in the top third of their T14 school should be fine, but then the battle lines will be drawn between the median-ish T14ers and the top X” percent of non-T14ers. I would imagine that the majority of those on this thread fall into one of these two cells.

From past experience, how long after OCI does it take to gauge the likely outcome of a given year?



JJW, this was closer to the viewpoint and "word on the street" that I had gotten from reading other forums online. I just wonder how accurate it is. From an OL perspective, it did seem alarming that middle-of-the-class T14 students would struggle to gain "meaningful" or "acceptable" employment in the labor market. Tough to imagine that middle-of-the-class law grads from places like Duke, Michigan Columbia, Georgetown, and the like may not find what Campos labels as "acceptable" employment.

Again, hope it's not that bad! But also trying to be as careful as possible with my law school application and entry decision.

ksllaw
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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby ksllaw » Wed Aug 15, 2012 5:16 pm

Here's another question we might ask and look at. Are there any longitudinal statistics/studies of law school grads over at least a 5-10 year period (post-graduation) you guys are familiar with? It would be interesting to see how some of these same law classes did over many years.

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rayiner
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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby rayiner » Wed Aug 15, 2012 5:22 pm

ksllaw wrote:
JJW wrote:After the first day of OCI and a few job fairs, word is that firms are not hiring all that many SAs. I saw on a thread where a NYC Senior Interviewer referred to one recent class as the “lost generation” of attorneys. That concern certainly exists for this class (to what degree, too early to tell). The good news seems to be that firms are not dropping their opening salaries and in some instances pay is going up (not speaking of the $160K crowd).

Those in the top third of their T14 school should be fine, but then the battle lines will be drawn between the median-ish T14ers and the top X” percent of non-T14ers. I would imagine that the majority of those on this thread fall into one of these two cells.

From past experience, how long after OCI does it take to gauge the likely outcome of a given year?



JJW, this was closer to the viewpoint and "word on the street" that I had gotten from reading other forums online. I just wonder how accurate it is. From an OL perspective, it did seem alarming that middle-of-the-class T14 students would struggle to gain "meaningful" or "acceptable" employment in the labor market. Tough to imagine that middle-of-the-class law grads from places like Duke, Michigan Columbia, Georgetown, and the like may not find what Campos labels as "acceptable" employment.

Again, hope it's not that bad! But also trying to be as careful as possible with my law school application and entry decision.


The thing to realize is that only at around top 1/3 does your grades really give you a big leg up for firm jobs. Below that, you're aiming at firms that don't care much about grades. That doesn't mean that most of the class doesn't get a big firm. A lot of median kids might strike out and bottom third kids might get something. Firms don't make a big deal about 10% above median versus 10% below median. For most of the class that can't ride on their grades, interviewing ability is going to matter more than grades.

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rayiner
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Re: Newly minited lawyers how is the job outlook and salaries?

Postby rayiner » Wed Aug 15, 2012 8:23 pm

ksllaw wrote:
rayiner wrote:I'm C/O 2012 at NU. I'd say maybe 15% of the class is still looking, and maybe 5-10% found something that wasn't a great job (I.e. less than six figure or not IBR eligible). I'd consider that to be a sizeable minority.

I also think you're misinterpreting Paul Campos's data. I ran a vey similar analysis, and it's more like 20% Columbia, 30% Michigan, etc, for C/ 2012. IBR eligible PI jobs are a good outcome, one that many people want. At some schools with substantial JD-MBA programs, a big chunk of the business/industry jobs are good too. 50% of Michigan may have not gone into big law, but 10% got federal clerkships and another 10% or so got legitimate, non-school under PI jobs.

And yeah, 30% isn't great. I never said it was. I said that most people have big law and a sizeable minority have nothing. At NU, at least, that's quite true.


Thanks, I appreciate the feedback.

Yeah, I guess people can perhaps watch the Campos and Rhodes video and see what they make of the numbers?:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2gvnPTH ... ure=relmfu

I'm not 100% sure of how he ran his numbers, but others can watch and probably do a better job deciphering it with better familarity with the "law jobs" terminology he uses. As an OL and not yet in law school, nor being 100% sure of the terms he's using, I wasn't exactly sure what to make of it. But it does seem Campos includes some of those clerkships and public interest positions in his numbers (that you say aren't included), no?

(I'm not familiar enough with the terminology to be sure here, so merely asking at this point!)

Here's what he says:
(starting at time 10:42:

"What's happening at the elite law schools? Well, I've come up with a little statistic I call high status law employment placement, which is calculated with people getting jobs with firms that pay six-figure salaries - mainly NLJ 250 firms, but also a few boutique-y firms that pay those kinds of salaries - Article 3 clerkships, prestigious government jobs, and dedicated public interest LRAP students who were going that route from the beginning.

So, these I think it's fair to say pretty much encapsulates what would be considered an acceptable employment outcome for most people going to an elite law school. So sort of the whole point. The whole point of going to an elite law school is so you can get those kinds of jobs. ...

Anways, bottom line, how many people graduating from elite law schools right now with an acceptable employment outcome from a [can't make out what he's saying here ] perspective? Here are the numbers:

Columbia 64.5%...

Chicago 59%

NYU 53%....

Michigan 47.4%...

Georgetown 41% ... Georgetown graduates 650 people a year, because they take 100 transfers every year. You probably didn't know that. This giant factory essentially in a completely saturated market - D.C. ..."



Maybe we can more carefully analyze his numbers?


Campos also gives these numbers (for the entire ABA law class of 2010 - not specific to T14):

"Perhaps 10,000 out of 44,000 ABA law school grads in 2010 were earning $63,000 or more 9 months after graduation." (he mentions it around 9:00 min mark)


Campos is talking about something slightly different from what I am, and also playing with less information. He's taking the "known good" stats: NLJ 250 placement and federal clerkship placement and PI/government placement (minus school-employed positions). That gives him the ~65% number for Columbia. That's a minimum easily-verifiable statement about the number of people taking "acceptable jobs" but it's an understatement. He assumes that e.g. all business/industry jobs are "not acceptable" even though Columbia has a JD-MBA program and lots of those students take business/industry jobs. He's also assuming that any job at a non-NLJ250 firm is "not acceptable employment" even though lots of solid firms are not in the NLJ 250 (many paying $135k+). He's also assuming that the NLJ's reports are complete.

I start with the data reported by the schools to the ABA (http://employmentsummary.abaquestionnaire.org), and make some inferences based on my own observations as someone in the class of 2012 who can see where my classmates got jobs. For example, at NU, half the people (14 of 29) who took "business/industry" jobs were JD-MBA's who took non-law jobs. Northwestern has an M7 business school (like Columbia). These are good jobs. It makes no sense to count them as "not acceptable outcomes." I also know the people going to firms in the 50-150 attorney range are doing well, even though those firms are not in the NLJ 250. This range doesn't encompass shit law, but IP boutiques and secondary/tertiary market big law (e.g. $120k in Milwaukee).

If you look at the CLS data from C/O 2011 with this in mind, you'll see that 63% ended up at firms of > 50 attorneys, 8% ended up in federal clerkships, and 6% ended up in public interest, once you subtract-out school-funded jobs. I don't know how many JD-MBA's Columbia has, but if you assume that at least some of the business/industry jobs are legit, that's where my ~80% figure comes from. I think, based on my observations (Campos can't Linked-In stalk actual students), that's a more accurate figure than the one Campos has calculated.




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