Will the economy be better in 2015?

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futurejdgirl
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Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby futurejdgirl » Wed Mar 21, 2012 3:27 pm

I'm not an economics person and I will not pretend to be, but for those of you who are, and this may already have been mentioned or discussed - but do you think the economic "cycle" will allow the economy to be more forgiving for classes of 2015 and so forth? Like the economy can only go up from here? I'm not trying to be overly idealistic but just looking for some real solid predictions based on facts or thoughts on this, if you all have any. Thanks!

Jhuen_the_bird
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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby Jhuen_the_bird » Wed Mar 21, 2012 3:32 pm

I hope the economy will be better by 2015 ... however, I'm not sure if that will make it easier for 2015 grads since the rest of us will be trying to reap the benefits of a better economy at that time, too. I mean, I'm a 2010 grad and I'm doing all right now (staff attorney position) ... in 3 years if the economy is better, I hope that my "experience" will help to catapult me into an even better job / situation (more permanent, more room for growth / advancement, etc. So ... my thoughts are if the economy improves in the next 2-3 years, the new grads will be competing with the grads from the days of the bad economy.

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AntipodeanPhil
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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby AntipodeanPhil » Wed Mar 21, 2012 3:44 pm

Jhuen_the_bird wrote:I hope the economy will be better by 2015 ... however, I'm not sure if that will make it easier for 2015 grads since the rest of us will be trying to reap the benefits of a better economy at that time, too. I mean, I'm a 2010 grad and I'm doing all right now (staff attorney position) ... in 3 years if the economy is better, I hope that my "experience" will help to catapult me into an even better job / situation (more permanent, more room for growth / advancement, etc. So ... my thoughts are if the economy improves in the next 2-3 years, the new grads will be competing with the grads from the days of the bad economy.

Presumably this isn't going to be an issue for big law jobs at t14 schools, unless they start letting alumni participate in 2L OCI :wink:.
Last edited by AntipodeanPhil on Wed Mar 21, 2012 3:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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futurejdgirl
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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby futurejdgirl » Wed Mar 21, 2012 3:44 pm

Jhuen_the_bird wrote:I hope the economy will be better by 2015 ... however, I'm not sure if that will make it easier for 2015 grads since the rest of us will be trying to reap the benefits of a better economy at that time, too. I mean, I'm a 2010 grad and I'm doing all right now (staff attorney position) ... in 3 years if the economy is better, I hope that my "experience" will help to catapult me into an even better job / situation (more permanent, more room for growth / advancement, etc. So ... my thoughts are if the economy improves in the next 2-3 years, the new grads will be competing with the grads from the days of the bad economy.


Yeah, that's true. I also do feel like though that at that point, there will be a lot of grads who might be working in other fields. Three years is a long time to wait on a legal job and people have to make a living. The only REAL hope we can ALL have is that... current, wrinkly attorneys aren't getting younger?!? I mean they have to die someday right? :lol:

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AntipodeanPhil
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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby AntipodeanPhil » Wed Mar 21, 2012 3:47 pm

You probably need to be more specific, since people seem to have different predictions about big law, mid law, shit law, et cetera.

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marlborofillet
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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby marlborofillet » Wed Mar 21, 2012 3:53 pm

I'm not a economics whiz-kid either. But from what I have read (http://www.abajournal.com/magazine/article/paradigm_shift/, it'd be dubious to assume that overall economic growth would result in a more 'forgiving legal market.'

The whole article is worth reading, but here are some money quotes (pun intended):

'Whether BigLaw lawyers, boutique specialists or solo practitioners, U.S. lawyers can expect slower rates of market growth that will only intensify competitive pressures and produce a shakeout of weaker competitors and slimmer profit margins industrywide. Law students will find ever-more-limited opportunity for the big-salary score, but more jobs in legal services outside the big firms. Associates’ paths upward will fade as firms strain to keep profits per partner up by keeping traditional leverage down.'

'But the U.S. legal profession no longer has a shortage of sophisticated business lawyers. Increasingly, clients have become comfortable pitting one firm against another to obtain pricing discounts, and many large corporate clients no longer want to pay the billing rates of junior associates who are learning on the job, excluding first- and second-year associates from working on their matters.

In response, law firms have reduced the number of entry-level lawyers, turning the traditional pyramid structure into a diamond with many senior associates and nonequity partners composing the broad middle. While that makes sense in theory, if the entire industry attempts to shed the training costs of entry-level lawyers, it will eventually produce a shortage of midlevel attorneys and higher labor costs to stave off unwanted attrition. It will also produce a general graying of the corporate bar—a trend evident in much of the Northeast—that will stifle firms’ ability to innovate.'

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chem
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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby chem » Wed Mar 21, 2012 3:54 pm

marlborofillet wrote:I'm not a economics whiz-kid either. But from what I have read (http://www.abajournal.com/magazine/article/paradigm_shift/, it'd be dubious to assume that overall economic growth would result in a more 'forgiving legal market.'

The whole article is worth reading, but here are some money quotes (pun intended):

'Whether BigLaw lawyers, boutique specialists or solo practitioners, U.S. lawyers can expect slower rates of market growth that will only intensify competitive pressures and produce a shakeout of weaker competitors and slimmer profit margins industrywide. Law students will find ever-more-limited opportunity for the big-salary score, but more jobs in legal services outside the big firms. Associates’ paths upward will fade as firms strain to keep profits per partner up by keeping traditional leverage down.'

'But the U.S. legal profession no longer has a shortage of sophisticated business lawyers. Increasingly, clients have become comfortable pitting one firm against another to obtain pricing discounts, and many large corporate clients no longer want to pay the billing rates of junior associates who are learning on the job, excluding first- and second-year associates from working on their matters.

In response, law firms have reduced the number of entry-level lawyers, turning the traditional pyramid structure into a diamond with many senior associates and nonequity partners composing the broad middle. While that makes sense in theory, if the entire industry attempts to shed the training costs of entry-level lawyers, it will eventually produce a shortage of midlevel attorneys and higher labor costs to stave off unwanted attrition. It will also produce a general graying of the corporate bar—a trend evident in much of the Northeast—that will stifle firms’ ability to innovate.'


But Im a special snowflake, so none of this applies to me!

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marlborofillet
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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby marlborofillet » Wed Mar 21, 2012 3:57 pm

chem wrote:But Im a special snowflake, so none of this applies to me!


With an avatar like yours, I'd hire you.

Jhuen_the_bird
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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby Jhuen_the_bird » Wed Mar 21, 2012 4:02 pm

AntipodeanPhil wrote:
Jhuen_the_bird wrote:I hope the economy will be better by 2015 ... however, I'm not sure if that will make it easier for 2015 grads since the rest of us will be trying to reap the benefits of a better economy at that time, too. I mean, I'm a 2010 grad and I'm doing all right now (staff attorney position) ... in 3 years if the economy is better, I hope that my "experience" will help to catapult me into an even better job / situation (more permanent, more room for growth / advancement, etc. So ... my thoughts are if the economy improves in the next 2-3 years, the new grads will be competing with the grads from the days of the bad economy.

Presumably this isn't going to be an issue for big law jobs at t14 schools, unless they start letting alumni participate in 2L OCI :wink:.



People who will actually be getting big law jobs from 2L OCI coming from t14 law schools are a teeny tiny insignificant minority of lawyers out there in the "legal job market/economy" ...

Personally, I'm hoping that after 5 years of scrambling and fighting for whatever legal experience / jobs I can get ... I will at least be more desirable candidate for *insert law jobs here* than a brand new "baby lawyer" if the economy improves (... hell, or even if it doesn't!)

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futurejdgirl
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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby futurejdgirl » Wed Mar 21, 2012 4:14 pm

chem wrote:
marlborofillet wrote:I'm not a economics whiz-kid either. But from what I have read (http://www.abajournal.com/magazine/article/paradigm_shift/, it'd be dubious to assume that overall economic growth would result in a more 'forgiving legal market.'

The whole article is worth reading, but here are some money quotes (pun intended):

'Whether BigLaw lawyers, boutique specialists or solo practitioners, U.S. lawyers can expect slower rates of market growth that will only intensify competitive pressures and produce a shakeout of weaker competitors and slimmer profit margins industrywide. Law students will find ever-more-limited opportunity for the big-salary score, but more jobs in legal services outside the big firms. Associates’ paths upward will fade as firms strain to keep profits per partner up by keeping traditional leverage down.'

'But the U.S. legal profession no longer has a shortage of sophisticated business lawyers. Increasingly, clients have become comfortable pitting one firm against another to obtain pricing discounts, and many large corporate clients no longer want to pay the billing rates of junior associates who are learning on the job, excluding first- and second-year associates from working on their matters.

In response, law firms have reduced the number of entry-level lawyers, turning the traditional pyramid structure into a diamond with many senior associates and nonequity partners composing the broad middle. While that makes sense in theory, if the entire industry attempts to shed the training costs of entry-level lawyers, it will eventually produce a shortage of midlevel attorneys and higher labor costs to stave off unwanted attrition. It will also produce a general graying of the corporate bar—a trend evident in much of the Northeast—that will stifle firms’ ability to innovate.'


But Im a special snowflake, so none of this applies to me!



So the problem isn't necessarily JUST that the economy sucks but that there are a bunch of unemployed lawyers with presumably more experience waiting for jobs the moment they come? .... and I'm guessing its at its worst in places like D.C.

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chem
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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby chem » Wed Mar 21, 2012 4:17 pm

futurejdgirl wrote:
chem wrote:
marlborofillet wrote:I'm not a economics whiz-kid either. But from what I have read (http://www.abajournal.com/magazine/article/paradigm_shift/, it'd be dubious to assume that overall economic growth would result in a more 'forgiving legal market.'

The whole article is worth reading, but here are some money quotes (pun intended):

'Whether BigLaw lawyers, boutique specialists or solo practitioners, U.S. lawyers can expect slower rates of market growth that will only intensify competitive pressures and produce a shakeout of weaker competitors and slimmer profit margins industrywide. Law students will find ever-more-limited opportunity for the big-salary score, but more jobs in legal services outside the big firms. Associates’ paths upward will fade as firms strain to keep profits per partner up by keeping traditional leverage down.'

'But the U.S. legal profession no longer has a shortage of sophisticated business lawyers. Increasingly, clients have become comfortable pitting one firm against another to obtain pricing discounts, and many large corporate clients no longer want to pay the billing rates of junior associates who are learning on the job, excluding first- and second-year associates from working on their matters.

In response, law firms have reduced the number of entry-level lawyers, turning the traditional pyramid structure into a diamond with many senior associates and nonequity partners composing the broad middle. While that makes sense in theory, if the entire industry attempts to shed the training costs of entry-level lawyers, it will eventually produce a shortage of midlevel attorneys and higher labor costs to stave off unwanted attrition. It will also produce a general graying of the corporate bar—a trend evident in much of the Northeast—that will stifle firms’ ability to innovate.'


But Im a special snowflake, so none of this applies to me!



So the problem isn't necessarily JUST that the economy sucks but that there are a bunch of unemployed lawyers with presumably more experience waiting for jobs the moment they come? .... and I'm guessing its at its worst in places like D.C.


Hurts more for midlaw to small law. Biglaw hires its associates from graduate classes and from other big law laterals, not from unemployed or midlaw small law experience. Once someone misses the biglaw boat when they graduate, its really, really hard to get back on. The unemployed lawyers will probably hurt the PI jobs as well.

Another thing is that biglaw trades on prestige. Clients want to have someone from a nationally recognizable school, who can say they were order of the coif or something like that

EDIT: 0L, just echoing what i've heard before
Last edited by chem on Wed Mar 21, 2012 5:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Gail
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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby Gail » Wed Mar 21, 2012 5:08 pm

incredibly depressing. especially because i will never score high enough on that lsat to get into a top 14 school. i too dumb.

lawlcat4179
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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby lawlcat4179 » Wed Mar 21, 2012 5:29 pm

futurejdgirl wrote:I'm not an economics person and I will not pretend to be, but for those of you who are, and this may already have been mentioned or discussed - but do you think the economic "cycle" will allow the economy to be more forgiving for classes of 2015 and so forth? Like the economy can only go up from here? I'm not trying to be overly idealistic but just looking for some real solid predictions based on facts or thoughts on this, if you all have any. Thanks!


People would generally classify me as an econ guy, so I suppose I'll add my two cents. To come out and say "the economy will be better, or the economy will be worse in 2015" is a futile effort. To be honest, unless you have someone who is really "in the know" you won't ever know for sure. People will likely claim that they do know, but if they say that they are lying to you. If people were able to predict these things, there would be many people who would make unlimited money betting on the markets, yet evidence shows this generally doesn't happen.

However, with that being said, I can mention what I do know. We had many systemic problems that led to our current situation. People look to the housing crisis as the main catalyst, but it is really more than that. At least in my opinion, our problems generally stem from a lack of accountability on Wall Street. In the past, large financial institutions operated as general partnerships, if they took too much risk they would fail and the executives would go bankrupt. Now we have a system that rewards top executives for betting recklessly with money that they have no stake in (the shareholders' money). This is something that congress refuses to do anything about (because both parties are bought by wall street to keep the shell game going).

Currently, congress has continued to deregulate large financial institutions and coming out of the recession has refused to do anything to break up the large banks (Dodd-Frank was a joke that did nothing, just a way to make politicians look as if they care). The large banks are now even larger, and have nothing in place to stop them from taking the same risks that they took which caused the collapse.

All of this leads me to the conclusion that there is a really good chance that we could go into a major depression, much worse than the one we went into in 2008. The underlying problems have only gotten worse. However, it is a futile exercise to try and predict when this bubble could blow up. It could be 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, etc. So if you're going to go to law school, just bear in mind that it is entirely possible that we have not hit the worst of it. All it would take is the implosion of the Eurozone (a very real possibility) and we could have some major problems.

But I'm a 0l so take it for what its worth.
TL/DR: Can't predict markets, just as good of a chance for a depression as for a real recovery

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futurejdgirl
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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby futurejdgirl » Wed Mar 21, 2012 6:22 pm

lawlcat4179 wrote:
futurejdgirl wrote:I'm not an economics person and I will not pretend to be, but for those of you who are, and this may already have been mentioned or discussed - but do you think the economic "cycle" will allow the economy to be more forgiving for classes of 2015 and so forth? Like the economy can only go up from here? I'm not trying to be overly idealistic but just looking for some real solid predictions based on facts or thoughts on this, if you all have any. Thanks!


People would generally classify me as an econ guy, so I suppose I'll add my two cents. To come out and say "the economy will be better, or the economy will be worse in 2015" is a futile effort. To be honest, unless you have someone who is really "in the know" you won't ever know for sure. People will likely claim that they do know, but if they say that they are lying to you. If people were able to predict these things, there would be many people who would make unlimited money betting on the markets, yet evidence shows this generally doesn't happen.

However, with that being said, I can mention what I do know. We had many systemic problems that led to our current situation. People look to the housing crisis as the main catalyst, but it is really more than that. At least in my opinion, our problems generally stem from a lack of accountability on Wall Street. In the past, large financial institutions operated as general partnerships, if they took too much risk they would fail and the executives would go bankrupt. Now we have a system that rewards top executives for betting recklessly with money that they have no stake in (the shareholders' money). This is something that congress refuses to do anything about (because both parties are bought by wall street to keep the shell game going).

Currently, congress has continued to deregulate large financial institutions and coming out of the recession has refused to do anything to break up the large banks (Dodd-Frank was a joke that did nothing, just a way to make politicians look as if they care). The large banks are now even larger, and have nothing in place to stop them from taking the same risks that they took which caused the collapse.

All of this leads me to the conclusion that there is a really good chance that we could go into a major depression, much worse than the one we went into in 2008. The underlying problems have only gotten worse. However, it is a futile exercise to try and predict when this bubble could blow up. It could be 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, etc. So if you're going to go to law school, just bear in mind that it is entirely possible that we have not hit the worst of it. All it would take is the implosion of the Eurozone (a very real possibility) and we could have some major problems.

But I'm a 0l so take it for what its worth.
TL/DR: Can't predict markets, just as good of a chance for a depression as for a real recovery



Actually, a lot of what you are saying makes sense and rings a bell. I'm an international relations major and textbooks, readings, professors constantly reiterate how the global economic crisis is somewhat of a domino effect- globalization and other factors allow the worsening economies around the world to have an impact here, one that is almost like a slow, silent killer. This is so depressing... Maybe I'll just pack my bags and move to Denmark or Sweden...

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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby lsatcrazy » Wed Mar 21, 2012 8:23 pm

After performing hours of supercomputer-driven econometric multivariate regression analyses and other high-level advanced quantitative modeling methods, I have arrived at the solution: Maybe.

murray18
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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby murray18 » Wed Mar 21, 2012 8:50 pm

lsatcrazy wrote:After performing hours of supercomputer-driven econometric multivariate regression analyses and other high-level advanced quantitative modeling methods, I have arrived at the solution: Maybe.


Your econometric powers astound me. And I agree.

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beachbum
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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby beachbum » Wed Mar 21, 2012 8:50 pm

Meh, if we slide into another recession, it'll be because of Europe, and probably not because of another asset/stock/bullshit bubble. The housing market has more or less bottomed-out, and the major systemic problems related to the housing bubble (CDOs, mortgages handed out to anyone with a heartbeat, etc.) are mostly corrected, or in the process of being corrected. Firms have a lot of cash to spend, and debt is slowly decreasing. (Government debt, on the other hand, is another beast. And that might present a longer-term drag on the economy as we work to pay it down).

The poster above mentioned the problem of financial firms essentially betting with borrowed money. And that's still a problem. But that's been a problem since the 80s. (And, in fairness, so have mortgage bonds). Some of these problems just exist, and have existed for a while. They certainly present a risk, but I'm not sure that risk is any greater now than it has been in the past. (Of course, further deregulation may exacerbate that risk). It really just takes someone realizing that they can make something out of nothing, like what happened with mortgage bonds/CDOs. And I guess that's liable to happen at any time, but I'd hope that financial firms will be a little more cautious with these complex financial instruments built on rainbows and wet dreams. (Granted, this may be putting too much faith in financial entities).

Student debt might present a problem, but probably not on the level of the housing bubble.

Otherwise, there's Europe. And this is a fairly substantial risk, if only because a few Eurozone countries are really, really fucked with debt, and there's not a whole lot we in America can do about it. And if Europe can't find a reasonable solution to the problem and the eurozone falls back into a recession (or collapses completely), that would be bad. But hopefully Germany et al can find a way out of this, and I'm certainly more optimistic here than I was a few months ago.

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DaftAndDirect
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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby DaftAndDirect » Wed Mar 21, 2012 8:58 pm

if by better you mean SOCIALIZSTTT!!!

lol

but seriously

lawlcat4179
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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby lawlcat4179 » Wed Mar 21, 2012 9:30 pm

beachbum wrote:Meh, if we slide into another recession, it'll be because of Europe, and probably not because of another asset/stock/bullshit bubble. The housing market has more or less bottomed-out, and the major systemic problems related to the housing bubble (CDOs, mortgages handed out to anyone with a heartbeat, etc.) are mostly corrected, or in the process of being corrected. Firms have a lot of cash to spend, and debt is slowly decreasing. (Government debt, on the other hand, is another beast. And that might present a longer-term drag on the economy as we work to pay it down).

The poster above mentioned the problem of financial firms essentially betting with borrowed money. And that's still a problem. But that's been a problem since the 80s. (And, in fairness, so have mortgage bonds). Some of these problems just exist, and have existed for a while. They certainly present a risk, but I'm not sure that risk is any greater now than it has been in the past. (Of course, further deregulation may exacerbate that risk). It really just takes someone realizing that they can make something out of nothing, like what happened with mortgage bonds/CDOs. And I guess that's liable to happen at any time, but I'd hope that financial firms will be a little more cautious with these complex financial instruments built on rainbows and wet dreams. (Granted, this may be putting too much faith in financial entities).

Student debt might present a problem, but probably not on the level of the housing bubble.

Otherwise, there's Europe. And this is a fairly substantial risk, if only because a few Eurozone countries are really, really fucked with debt, and there's not a whole lot we in America can do about it. And if Europe can't find a reasonable solution to the problem and the eurozone falls back into a recession (or collapses completely), that would be bad. But hopefully Germany et al can find a way out of this, and I'm certainly more optimistic here than I was a few months ago.


Gonna have to disagree (slightly). Yes, eurozone is by far the largest risk posed at the moment. This is in large part due to the massive bets that the large financial institutions have on various sides of it (basically too big to fail round 2). An example of this would be the pressure Goldman put on Greece to accept austerity because of how their bets were structured.

Put yourself into the situation of the top executives. You are getting a bonus based off of an expected future profit. However, if your investments don't work out as planned, there are little if any clawback provisions. They have no real personal stake in the matter. You could argue that their professional reputation would be ruined by recklessly running their company into the ground... but that didn't really have much of an effect post 2008 on their ability to find employment. When their buddies sit on the boards of several banks, they'll have no trouble finding employment. So therefore they do what any rational actor would do in that situation, they take a huge bet because if it pays off big they get a huge reward, and if it goes belly up they get a gigantic severance package and a new job.

I hate to play the analogy game, but I'll do it anyway. Say someone offers you a chance to go into a casino and play blackjack with 500$ of their money. They pay you a base salary of 50$, plus you get a cut of all the profits. If you do poorly and get fired, you get a 200$ severance. If you win, you get 30% of all profits. If their is no down side to losing, and its not your money, you are going to play an especially risky style because it makes economic sense to do so.

To say that another asset/stock/bullshit bubble won't happen I think is missing the bigger picture. As long as they have something to bet on, and are getting rewarded for taking the risks, they will do it. The housing crisis is irrelevant. It was merely just the betting instrument of the day. You either need to put their personal wealth into the game (like before), or you need to set up a ton of government regulations (which they'll just find loopholes to anyway).

Yes these problems have been available since the 80's, but it takes time for them to develop. It takes time to realize how the game is played, and then to have something happen that blows the whole system to shreds. That's part of why it's so futile to predict when the market will tank again. It'd be like trying to guess when the music is going to stop in a game of musical chairs. But, unless something happens to correct the system, the music will stop, it's just a matter of when.

Also, government debt generally shouldn't be much of an issue. The more relevant factor is debt to GDP. Yes, right now our ratio isn't the greatest, but that's because we need our economy to improve. However, we likely won't have much of an economic recovery until the systemic problems are addressed, which we are not doing. To have faith that the bankers learned their lesson is likely very misguided, as their is ample evidence that they are back to doing the exact same thing that caused the crisis in the first place.

However, odds are, if we hit a global world depression much worse than that seen in 2008, my potential unemployment and student loan debt will be the least of my problems, so might as well take a shot at biglaw anyway.

Caveat: I do tend to be a pessimist.

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DaftAndDirect
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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby DaftAndDirect » Wed Mar 21, 2012 9:52 pm

OP, I think we all want to know the answer to this question. But a forum for law students is probably the absolute worst place to post a question like this. We know DICK about this topic. If any of us had answers to this question with even the slightest shred of predictive value, we'd be off making a fortune in the markets.

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

/thread

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby Tiago Splitter » Wed Mar 21, 2012 9:54 pm

lawlcat4179 wrote:Caveat: I do tend to be a pessimist.


I wouldn't consider your faith in government anything close to pessimistic.

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LogicalBaozi
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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby LogicalBaozi » Wed Mar 21, 2012 9:56 pm

lsatcrazy wrote:After performing hours of supercomputer-driven econometric multivariate regression analyses and other high-level advanced quantitative modeling methods, I have arrived at the solution: Maybe.


As an econometrics/math/stats person, I arrived at the exact same conclusion! Amazing!

Even people *in the know* can't say for sure. There's far too much to know, and far too much that nobody knows. If you *really* knew, you'd be getting rich on Wall Street, not dispensing advice with error margins.

Personally, I have no idea. I expect the economy won't completely go belly-up, either here or in a major European economy. It is certainly possible. Even if things go swimmingly, it's also possible pressure on the legal profession could change hiring practices in a way that negatively effects me, even if it is good for the firm/my cohort at large. Even if everything benefits me, and I do well at a T14/T10/T6, I might still strike out due to factors outside my control (yer a bad fit, brah!).

And as an above poster said, if the US/Europe double-dips/teabag each other, or the BRICs shoot themselves/each other/us in the face/foot/balls, then you are probably going to be looking for work anyway.

Might as well take the risk- plus, if the student loan bubble bursts, maybe we'll get a bailout! /sarcasm

lawlcat4179
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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby lawlcat4179 » Wed Mar 21, 2012 10:02 pm

LogicalBaozi wrote:
lsatcrazy wrote:After performing hours of supercomputer-driven econometric multivariate regression analyses and other high-level advanced quantitative modeling methods, I have arrived at the solution: Maybe.


As an econometrics/math/stats person, I arrived at the exact same conclusion! Amazing!

Even people *in the know* can't say for sure. There's far too much to know, and far too much that nobody knows. If you *really* knew, you'd be getting rich on Wall Street, not dispensing advice with error margins.

Personally, I have no idea. I expect the economy won't completely go belly-up, either here or in a major European economy. It is certainly possible. Even if things go swimmingly, it's also possible pressure on the legal profession could change hiring practices in a way that negatively effects me, even if it is good for the firm/my cohort at large. Even if everything benefits me, and I do well at a T14/T10/T6, I might still strike out due to factors outside my control (yer a bad fit, brah!).

And as an above poster said, if the US/Europe double-dips/teabag each other, or the BRICs shoot themselves/each other/us in the face/foot/balls, then you are probably going to be looking for work anyway.

Might as well take the risk- plus, if the student loan bubble bursts, maybe we'll get a bailout! /sarcasm


Pretty much my logic as well. We certainly can't provide much of a prediction, especially when so much of it is based on the exact timing of the whole thing.

I should also point out that the reason I said what I did earlier is not even that I necessarily think that it's going to happen, but that it is very much a realistic possibility.

So as a poster above said, hope for the best, plan for the worst. Just be aware that coming out a recession, the economy doesn't have to get better. It can, in fact, get much worse. Especially when our government does nothing to stop the problem.

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beachbum
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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby beachbum » Wed Mar 21, 2012 10:11 pm

I actually agree with most of your post. In our current state of affairs, it is almost inevitable (if not 100% inevitable) that a similar pattern of financial behavior will occur in the future. If you're playing with free money, and no one is preventing you from recklessly betting that money, and the consequences of losing that money are relatively minimal, well, you're gonna put it all on black, baby. I agree that, yes, the housing market was just the flavor of the day in 2008. Bankers realized they could make money out of nothing and pass any risk on to some silly hedge fund/institutional investor/AIG.

So I guess it's a question of if/when another opportunity presents itself in the future. Not many saw the 2008 collapse coming, and I doubt many will see the next crash. I guess it's possible that a similar pattern of reckless investing is going on as we speak. But I think it's unlikely, if only because we're still fresh off the last recession (and people seem a little more wary), and, well, it took quite a while for us to arrive at the 2008 crisis.

Again, it's possible that a similar crisis will affect us. But I'm not sure it's likely, and I'm not sure that risk potential is really something I'd take into account when making a law school decision. It'd be foolish to plan on a markedly better economy, but I think it'd be equally questionable to plan on a markedly worse economy. You might as well just imagine things as they are today, as predicting the future, it turns out, is kinda tough.

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futurejdgirl
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Re: Will the economy be better in 2015?

Postby futurejdgirl » Wed Mar 21, 2012 11:35 pm

Thanks all for the responses. I have to say, even considering those with limited economic knowledge, there have been some meaningful contributions to this thread. Overall though it seems the general feeling is that it won't necessarily be "better", and possibly even worse...which scares me but is not surprising. Obviously it's foolish to make a law school decision based on an economy we *really* can't know yet. In the same note, (since a lot of you have mentioned how this is not the proper website to ask about the economy) we even really can't guarantee job placement either, can we? ("omg I'm so smart I'll be in top 5% at any school I go too" is way too idealistic considering forced law school curves) which begs the question, is it really worth it? I guess that's what it all comes down too. But then again - what jobs ARE available in this economy anyways? Consulting? Computer Science? I've said this before, but sometimes I really wish I had gone to med school and somehow become passionate about science. It's not that I'm suddenly becoming aware of the reality of the legal market, but finding more and more reasons NOT to attend law school. Does anyone else feel this way...?

P.S. - Considering my father has been unemployed for two years now, even though he has 10+ years of business experience and the plethora of college grads I know that are unemployed with seemingly useless Bachelor's degrees, my overall picture of the job market is not very pretty. I've always wanted to go to law school and I know that it would be interesting to me and it is something I could see myself doing (I've done several legal internships in undergrad) but now I'm wondering if I'll ever even have the chance to do that.




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