bar results waiting thread

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Myself
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Postby Myself » Tue Oct 01, 2013 3:39 pm

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Last edited by Myself on Wed Nov 20, 2013 12:13 am, edited 3 times in total.

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iwakeboard
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby iwakeboard » Tue Oct 01, 2013 3:53 pm

Joan Hollaway wrote:Also, with everyone's super high MBE scores I'm hoping this means that a lot of questions were thrown out or that two answers were given credit for some of them or something. I'm trying to grasp onto anything in order to get myself through October.

As difficult as the questions were, I don't know how people are getting such high scaled scores without a significant amount of the questions being tossed or graded with two correct answers. Is this something the NCBEX even does?

09042014
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby 09042014 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 4:02 pm

iwakeboard wrote:
Joan Hollaway wrote:Also, with everyone's super high MBE scores I'm hoping this means that a lot of questions were thrown out or that two answers were given credit for some of them or something. I'm trying to grasp onto anything in order to get myself through October.

As difficult as the questions were, I don't know how people are getting such high scaled scores without a significant amount of the questions being tossed or graded with two correct answers. Is this something the NCBEX even does?


People get high scores every year. But this years curve is really high.

Seems like a ~127 raw gets you a ~147 scaled from looking at ILL data. We could be looking at more like 25 point curve near the pass/fail lines.

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Pretzel_Logic
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby Pretzel_Logic » Tue Oct 01, 2013 4:47 pm

iwakeboard wrote:Any word from our Kentucky takers here?


According to my sources, UK had a 92% first time taker pass rate. Being one of them feels like awesomeeeeeeee

I really wish they gave us scores though.

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Joe Quincy
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby Joe Quincy » Tue Oct 01, 2013 5:55 pm

iwakeboard wrote:
Joan Hollaway wrote:Also, with everyone's super high MBE scores I'm hoping this means that a lot of questions were thrown out or that two answers were given credit for some of them or something. I'm trying to grasp onto anything in order to get myself through October.

As difficult as the questions were, I don't know how people are getting such high scaled scores without a significant amount of the questions being tossed or graded with two correct answers. Is this something the NCBEX even does?


Yes, they do it.

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Joe Quincy
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby Joe Quincy » Tue Oct 01, 2013 5:56 pm

Desert Fox wrote:
iwakeboard wrote:
Joan Hollaway wrote:Also, with everyone's super high MBE scores I'm hoping this means that a lot of questions were thrown out or that two answers were given credit for some of them or something. I'm trying to grasp onto anything in order to get myself through October.

As difficult as the questions were, I don't know how people are getting such high scaled scores without a significant amount of the questions being tossed or graded with two correct answers. Is this something the NCBEX even does?


People get high scores every year. But this years curve is really high.

Seems like a ~127 raw gets you a ~147 scaled from looking at ILL data. We could be looking at more like 25 point curve near the pass/fail lines.


How are you figuring this? Other raw/scaled's reported on TLS suggest a 16-point curve (slightly above the pass line). AFAIK, you can't go by straight 50th percentile across the board in the first chart because the 50th percentile person may not have hit the 50th percentile in each category. The real average raw score could be much higher...or lower.

How does it compare if you use your analysis on the July 2012 numbers and the known curve? I hope to hell you're right but I doubt its that high.

09042014
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby 09042014 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 6:21 pm

Joe Quincy wrote:
Desert Fox wrote:
iwakeboard wrote:
Joan Hollaway wrote:Also, with everyone's super high MBE scores I'm hoping this means that a lot of questions were thrown out or that two answers were given credit for some of them or something. I'm trying to grasp onto anything in order to get myself through October.

As difficult as the questions were, I don't know how people are getting such high scaled scores without a significant amount of the questions being tossed or graded with two correct answers. Is this something the NCBEX even does?


People get high scores every year. But this years curve is really high.

Seems like a ~127 raw gets you a ~147 scaled from looking at ILL data. We could be looking at more like 25 point curve near the pass/fail lines.


How are you figuring this? Other raw/scaled's reported on TLS suggest a 16-point curve (slightly above the pass line). AFAIK, you can't go by straight 50th percentile across the board in the first chart because the 50th percentile person may not have hit the 50th percentile in each category. The real average raw score could be much higher...or lower.

How does it compare if you use your analysis on the July 2012 numbers and the known curve? I hope to hell you're right but I doubt its that high.


Who reported the 16 point curve around the pass line.

You can't know the 50th at each = 50th overall, but with such a large sample its bound to be really close. Especially since we can see that percentiles don't rapidly drop off right after the 50th.

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Joe Quincy
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby Joe Quincy » Tue Oct 01, 2013 6:28 pm

Somewhere in either this or the bar study thread, at least one person gave their raw/scaled score. I think it was a 131-->147 but not sure.

Edit: Correction, I found it...was a link and was 151->167 so not at the pass line. http://all4jds.com/FORUMS/aft/21695.aspx. Would it vary that much at the pass lines though?

Void
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby Void » Tue Oct 01, 2013 6:37 pm

Could someone translate these last few posts for those of us who don't really understand bell curves and whatnot?

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Joe Quincy
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby Joe Quincy » Tue Oct 01, 2013 6:40 pm

Void wrote:Could someone translate these last few posts for those of us who don't really understand bell curves and whatnot?


DF is saying that you'd possibly get 20-25 points added to your raw score right around 110-120 due to the difficulty. At a higher score, 151, only 16 points were added.

IL releases all kinds of data...they tell you what raw score was what percentile in each category, and what scaled score was what percentile overall. But they don't tell you the exact curve or give enough information to be sure that the 50th percentile scaled really represents the 50th percentile in each category since you could get 70 in Torts and 30 in Evidence, etc.

09042014
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby 09042014 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 6:42 pm

Joe Quincy wrote:Somewhere in either this or the bar study thread, at least one person gave their raw/scaled score. I think it was a 131-->147 but not sure.

Edit: Correction, I found it...was a link and was 151->167 so not at the pass line. http://all4jds.com/FORUMS/aft/21695.aspx. Would it vary that much at the pass lines though?


Yes the scale gets bigger the worse you do. Normally at high ranges you only get 10. Getting 16 at 141-157, means 20 at 127-147 is very possible.

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Joe Quincy
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby Joe Quincy » Tue Oct 01, 2013 6:45 pm

Desert Fox wrote:
Joe Quincy wrote:Somewhere in either this or the bar study thread, at least one person gave their raw/scaled score. I think it was a 131-->147 but not sure.

Edit: Correction, I found it...was a link and was 151->167 so not at the pass line. http://all4jds.com/FORUMS/aft/21695.aspx. Would it vary that much at the pass lines though?


Yes the scale gets bigger the worse you do. Normally at high ranges you only get 10. Getting 16 at 141-157, means 20 at 127-147 is very possible.


Well, the scale would usually get bigger, right? But its really based on the distribution of scores across the curve so it could be more or less dramatic. Its possible there are only 6-7 raw points separating a 130 and a 141, in which case I'd think there wouldn't be that many more points in the curve.

For a curve as dramatic as you're thinking, wouldn't everyone have to have scored within like a 30-40 point range?

You're the expert here...my stats knowledge sucks. I'm just poking holes...

spartjdawg
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby spartjdawg » Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:17 pm

Not that it matters, but I think the curve will look something like this based on what others have posted their scores to be:

100 123.6
101 124.3
102 125.1
103 125.9
104 126.7
105 127.5
106 128.3
107 129
108 129.8
109 130.6
110 131.4
111 132.2
112 133
113 133.8
114 134.6
115 135.4
116 136.2
117 137.1
118 137.9
119 138.7
120 139.5
121 140.3
122 141.2
123 142
124 142.8
125 143.6
126 144.5
127 145.3
128 146.2
129 147
130 147.8
131 148.7
132 149.5
133 150.4
134 151.2
135 152.1
136 152.9
137 153.8
138 154.6
139 155.5
140 156.3
141 157.2
142 158.1
143 159
144 159.9
145 160.8
146 161.7
147 162.6
148 163.5
149 164.4
150 165.3
151 166.2
152 166.7
153 167.6
154 168.4
155 169.3
156 170.1
157 171
158 171.8
159 172.6
160 173.5
161 174.3

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Agoraphobia
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby Agoraphobia » Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:38 pm

Another IL pass here. I literally cried all the way back to the hotel from the test center because I was sure I'd failed.

Congrats all!

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jeeptiger09
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby jeeptiger09 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:46 pm

Agoraphobia wrote:Another IL pass here. I literally cried all the way back to the hotel from the test center because I was sure I'd failed.

Congrats all!


Congrats!!!

Anecdotal for those of you still waiting: I got a 108/112 raw (sorry honestly cannot remember) on the Barbri Simulated MBE and I was above 150 on the real thing (scaled, of course).

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SmittenMitten
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby SmittenMitten » Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:12 am

Passed. Checked at work. Was for sure that I failed because I didn't study nearly as much as I should have.

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iwakeboard
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby iwakeboard » Wed Oct 02, 2013 8:12 am

Great to hear, everyone. Congratulations!

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evilxs
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby evilxs » Wed Oct 02, 2013 2:03 pm

SmittenMitten wrote:Passed. Checked at work. Was for sure that I failed because I didn't study nearly as much as I should have.



So brave. :)

I was not brave enough to check from work. I stayed home the morning of release and went into work right afterwards. :oops:

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Bronx Bum
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby Bronx Bum » Wed Oct 02, 2013 2:14 pm

Good job all. Hopefully I can celebrate with you all come May (whenever february results are released). It really sucks working so hard and failing. The MBE was a nightmare this year.

rad lulz
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby rad lulz » Wed Oct 02, 2013 2:16 pm

Bronx Bum wrote:Good job all. Hopefully I can celebrate with you all come May (whenever february results are released). It really sucks working so hard and failing. The MBE was a nightmare this year.

Aren't you still waitin on one bar? NY?

Couldn't you have done well enough on the ny part to overdone your MBE?

massarisucks
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby massarisucks » Wed Oct 02, 2013 8:26 pm

spartjdawg wrote:Not that it matters, but I think the curve will look something like this based on what others have posted their scores to be:

100 123.6
101 124.3
102 125.1
103 125.9
104 126.7
105 127.5
106 128.3
107 129
108 129.8
109 130.6
110 131.4
111 132.2
112 133
113 133.8
114 134.6
115 135.4
116 136.2
117 137.1
118 137.9
119 138.7
120 139.5
121 140.3
122 141.2
123 142
124 142.8
125 143.6
126 144.5
127 145.3
128 146.2
129 147
130 147.8
131 148.7
132 149.5
133 150.4
134 151.2
135 152.1
136 152.9
137 153.8
138 154.6
139 155.5
140 156.3
141 157.2
142 158.1
143 159
144 159.9
145 160.8
146 161.7
147 162.6
148 163.5
149 164.4
150 165.3
151 166.2
152 166.7
153 167.6
154 168.4
155 169.3
156 170.1
157 171
158 171.8
159 172.6
160 173.5
161 174.3


This seems quite accurate. However, the fact that each MBE subject is independently weighed will likely result in the curve not being as readily predictable. Nonetheless, with a low MBE, and an excellent essay score (in an essay heavy state (60 or 66.66) an individual stands a good chance of squeaking by.

JAGGER
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby JAGGER » Wed Oct 02, 2013 9:32 pm

rad lulz wrote:
Bronx Bum wrote:Good job all. Hopefully I can celebrate with you all come May (whenever february results are released). It really sucks working so hard and failing. The MBE was a nightmare this year.

Aren't you still waitin on one bar? NY?

Couldn't you have done well enough on the ny part to overdone your MBE?


I'm pretty sure Bronx Bum is trolling. In the Themis thread, this guy claimed he got like a 190 on the simulated MBE, but now he claims he got a 124 scaled. This was after he said that he was 40% or so done with the course in early June. Also, is it even possible for him to have taken the NY bar while already claiming to have failed another state? Massachusetts has definitely not released its results yet. Maybe there's another state that offered the bar on August 1? Either way, he's trolled before so I wouldn't take him seriously here.

Void
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby Void » Wed Oct 02, 2013 9:42 pm

JAGGER wrote:
rad lulz wrote:
Bronx Bum wrote:Good job all. Hopefully I can celebrate with you all come May (whenever february results are released). It really sucks working so hard and failing. The MBE was a nightmare this year.

Aren't you still waitin on one bar? NY?

Couldn't you have done well enough on the ny part to overdone your MBE?


I'm pretty sure Bronx Bum is trolling. In the Themis thread, this guy claimed he got like a 190 on the simulated MBE, but now he claims he got a 124 scaled. This was after he said that he was 40% or so done with the course in early June. Also, is it even possible for him to have taken the NY bar while already claiming to have failed another state? Massachusetts has definitely not released its results yet. Maybe there's another state that offered the bar on August 1? Either way, he's trolled before so I wouldn't take him seriously here.


Idk anything about Bronx bum but it's true that the entire NYC area (NY/NJ/CT/MA) has not yet released results, so if he took the bar near his namesake he probably hasn't heard yet.

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iwakeboard
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby iwakeboard » Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:00 am

Isn't Bronx the same guy who said he has taken and failed the MPRE like 4 times? I think he's trolling.

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A. Nony Mouse
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Re: bar results waiting thread

Postby A. Nony Mouse » Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:51 am

VT bar results came out already (dunno if you can take NY in the same year as VT, but NY/VT wouldn't be a crazy combo if you're upstate).




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