Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

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BVest
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby BVest » Wed Jun 21, 2017 12:00 pm

nickpapagiorgio wrote:
BVest wrote:
nickpapagiorgio wrote:Thank you. I wish New York released stats on essays and MPT.

Without looking it up, I assume those are scaled to the MBE distribution, like most other states do. For example, if the mean MBE is a 140.3 (like last July) and your raw essay score is right at the mean raw essay score, then your scaled essay score is a 140.3. Likewise, if your raw essay score is one standard deviation above the mean raw essay score, your scaled score would be 140.3+ 1 standard deviation (16.7 in July, for a 157 scaled score).


Super helpful. So is the below spreadsheet a good representation of how the UBE would be scored in New York? Sorry, can't post images yet.

https://app.box.com/s/90109ec73yfqi2zrscerojk6x43jhnog


Yes. (though I didn't check the calculations to make sure the spreadsheet calculated right).

Texas describes its grading thusly, and from what I've seen, it's basically what everyone does (I've omitted the description of scaling for the Texas-specific procedure and evidence section, but suffice it to say, it's also scaled the same):
MPT raw scores (on the 6-point scale) are
converted to a score distribution that has the
same mean and standard deviation as the
MBE scaled scores.

The sum of the converted Essay scores* is
scaled to a score distribution that has the
same mean and standard deviation as the
MBE scaled scores


As another example, I took the bar in a 40% MBE state and got a 160.8 MBE where passing was 135 weighted average across all sections, meaning I only needed a weighted average of 117.8 on everything else to pass. Using July MBE numbers, I could be roughly 12th percentile on the MPT, essay, and jurisdiction-specific sections and still pass.


* [Don't be thrown off by the "converted essay score." That basically means raw essay score, but the raw essay scores are first scaled against each other so that if one subject has on average more generous or stingier graders, or has a wider or narrower distribution of scores than the other essays, that variation will not have any overall impact].

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nickpapagiorgio
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby nickpapagiorgio » Wed Jun 21, 2017 1:03 pm

BVest wrote:
nickpapagiorgio wrote:So is the below spreadsheet a good representation of how the UBE would be scored in New York? Sorry, can't post images yet.

https://app.box.com/s/90109ec73yfqi2zrscerojk6x43jhnog

Yes. (though I didn't check the calculations to make sure the spreadsheet calculated right).


Great. So if everything is normalized/scaled to the MBE, then one can pass the UBE in New York by getting (1) a score 0.5 standard deviations higher than the mean (70th percentile) on the MBE (about a 149); (2) an average score on the MPT; and (3) a score two standard deviations below the mean (3rd percentile) on the MEE. Woot.

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TheWalrus
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby TheWalrus » Wed Jun 21, 2017 2:01 pm

nickpapagiorgio wrote:
BVest wrote:
nickpapagiorgio wrote:So is the below spreadsheet a good representation of how the UBE would be scored in New York? Sorry, can't post images yet.

https://app.box.com/s/90109ec73yfqi2zrscerojk6x43jhnog

Yes. (though I didn't check the calculations to make sure the spreadsheet calculated right).


Great. So if everything is normalized/scaled to the MBE, then one can pass the UBE in New York by getting (1) a score 0.5 standard deviations higher than the mean (70th percentile) on the MBE (about a 149); (2) an average score on the MPT; and (3) a score two standard deviations below the mean (3rd percentile) on the MEE. Woot.


Approximately what % right is a 149?

RaceJudicata
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby RaceJudicata » Wed Jun 21, 2017 2:50 pm

TheWalrus wrote:
nickpapagiorgio wrote:
BVest wrote:
nickpapagiorgio wrote:So is the below spreadsheet a good representation of how the UBE would be scored in New York? Sorry, can't post images yet.

https://app.box.com/s/90109ec73yfqi2zrscerojk6x43jhnog

Yes. (though I didn't check the calculations to make sure the spreadsheet calculated right).


Great. So if everything is normalized/scaled to the MBE, then one can pass the UBE in New York by getting (1) a score 0.5 standard deviations higher than the mean (70th percentile) on the MBE (about a 149); (2) an average score on the MPT; and (3) a score two standard deviations below the mean (3rd percentile) on the MEE. Woot.


Approximately what % right is a 149?


The answer to this question is my white whale. Seemingly impossible to get a definitive answer -- and even more difficult w/ MBE going to 175 real/25 experimental.

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BVest
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby BVest » Wed Jun 21, 2017 2:52 pm

RaceJudicata wrote:
TheWalrus wrote:
nickpapagiorgio wrote:
BVest wrote:
nickpapagiorgio wrote:So is the below spreadsheet a good representation of how the UBE would be scored in New York? Sorry, can't post images yet.

https://app.box.com/s/90109ec73yfqi2zrscerojk6x43jhnog

Yes. (though I didn't check the calculations to make sure the spreadsheet calculated right).


Great. So if everything is normalized/scaled to the MBE, then one can pass the UBE in New York by getting (1) a score 0.5 standard deviations higher than the mean (70th percentile) on the MBE (about a 149); (2) an average score on the MPT; and (3) a score two standard deviations below the mean (3rd percentile) on the MEE. Woot.


Approximately what % right is a 149?


The answer to this question is my white whale. Seemingly impossible to get a definitive answer -- and even more difficult w/ MBE going to 175 real/25 experimental.


(a) it is impossible because there is no definitive answer until that particular MBE is scored; (b) the 175/25 doesn't change things.

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anon sequitur
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby anon sequitur » Wed Jun 21, 2017 2:54 pm

It's impossible to know, the raw score needed for a particular scaled score varies from test to test, just like the LSAT. But since the MBE is a shittier test from a psychometric standpoint, it has wider variance. You just have to focus on what % you get right in prep. 70% is good, 80% is very good.

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nickpapagiorgio
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby nickpapagiorgio » Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:08 pm

RaceJudicata wrote:
TheWalrus wrote:
Approximately what % right is a 149?


The answer to this question is my white whale. Seemingly impossible to get a definitive answer -- and even more difficult w/ MBE going to 175 real/25 experimental.


According to this site, scaling tends to vary from +14 to +20. So if you got 125/175 correct, your scaled score would be anywhere from 139 to 145. This is using old data (early 2010s) though, before they moved from 190 questions to 175 questions and before they introduced CivPro. So maybe anon sequitur is right - I'm going to aim for 70%+ (meaning raw score of 140, so most certainly a scaled score of 150+, assuming practice questions are representative of the real thing).

https://www.excellenceinlawschool.com/mbe-raw-score-versus-scaled-score-score-aim/

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BVest
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby BVest » Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:17 pm

nickpapagiorgio wrote:
RaceJudicata wrote:
TheWalrus wrote:
Approximately what % right is a 149?


The answer to this question is my white whale. Seemingly impossible to get a definitive answer -- and even more difficult w/ MBE going to 175 real/25 experimental.


According to this site, scaling tends to vary from +14 to +20. So if you got 125/175 correct, your scaled score would be anywhere from 139 to 145. This is using old data (early 2010s) though, before they moved from 190 questions to 175 questions and before they introduced CivPro. So maybe anon sequitur is right- I'm going to aim for 70%+ (meaning raw score of 140, so most certainly a scaled score of 150+, assuming practice questions are representative of the real thing).

https://www.excellenceinlawschool.com/mbe-raw-score-versus-scaled-score-score-aim/

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Leo
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby Leo » Wed Jun 28, 2017 12:07 pm

anon sequitur wrote:It's impossible to know, the raw score needed for a particular scaled score varies from test to test, just like the LSAT. But since the MBE is a shittier test from a psychometric standpoint, it has wider variance. You just have to focus on what % you get right in prep. 70% is good, 80% is very good.


So does 70% = autopass in a state with 50% MBE / 50% essays? Recognizing, of course, that it's impossible to know. I'm looking for a ballpark estimate.

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barkschool
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby barkschool » Wed Jun 28, 2017 12:53 pm

dowsing for 40% mbe 60% essay state auto-pass rules

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whats an updog
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby whats an updog » Mon Jul 03, 2017 11:04 pm

omar.comin wrote:Does anyone know how to calculate this for CA now that we have 50% MBE? Also, does CA have a minimum passing standard/floor for the essays...? Because my essays suck.


Also wondering this. 8) 8) 8)

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BulletTooth
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby BulletTooth » Tue Jul 04, 2017 1:23 am

whats an updog wrote:
omar.comin wrote:Does anyone know how to calculate this for CA now that we have 50% MBE? Also, does CA have a minimum passing standard/floor for the essays...? Because my essays suck.


Also wondering this. 8) 8) 8)


I'm pretty sure that there is no minimum required scores for the essays--theoretically you could crush the MBE portion and phone it in on the essays. However, I don't know how well you would have to do on the MBE portion to pass with something like 55s on all essays--I imagine your MBE would need to be high.

de5igual
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby de5igual » Tue Jul 04, 2017 2:17 pm

BulletTooth wrote:
whats an updog wrote:
omar.comin wrote:Does anyone know how to calculate this for CA now that we have 50% MBE? Also, does CA have a minimum passing standard/floor for the essays...? Because my essays suck.


Also wondering this. 8) 8) 8)


I'm pretty sure that there is no minimum required scores for the essays--theoretically you could crush the MBE portion and phone it in on the essays. However, I don't know how well you would have to do on the MBE portion to pass with something like 55s on all essays--I imagine your MBE would need to be high.


If Baressays is any indication, getting a 55 is still a pretty hard feat.

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BulletTooth
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby BulletTooth » Tue Jul 04, 2017 2:32 pm

de5igual wrote:
BulletTooth wrote:
whats an updog wrote:
omar.comin wrote:Does anyone know how to calculate this for CA now that we have 50% MBE? Also, does CA have a minimum passing standard/floor for the essays...? Because my essays suck.


Also wondering this. 8) 8) 8)


I'm pretty sure that there is no minimum required scores for the essays--theoretically you could crush the MBE portion and phone it in on the essays. However, I don't know how well you would have to do on the MBE portion to pass with something like 55s on all essays--I imagine your MBE would need to be high.


If Baressays is any indication, getting a 55 is still a pretty hard feat.


Yeah, I have a feeling that a 55 given out by Kaplan, Barbri, etc. would actually score somewhere around a 65.

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Calvin Murphy
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby Calvin Murphy » Wed Jul 05, 2017 12:52 pm

BulletTooth wrote:
de5igual wrote:
BulletTooth wrote:
whats an updog wrote:
omar.comin wrote:Does anyone know how to calculate this for CA now that we have 50% MBE? Also, does CA have a minimum passing standard/floor for the essays...? Because my essays suck.


Also wondering this. 8) 8) 8)


I'm pretty sure that there is no minimum required scores for the essays--theoretically you could crush the MBE portion and phone it in on the essays. However, I don't know how well you would have to do on the MBE portion to pass with something like 55s on all essays--I imagine your MBE would need to be high.


If Baressays is any indication, getting a 55 is still a pretty hard feat.


Yeah, I have a feeling that a 55 given out by Kaplan, Barbri, etc. would actually score somewhere around a 65.


Strong MBE = Autopass really just doesn't apply to CA, even with the new format.

I am not a tutor or a grader, and I'm not sure that I understand the system entirely...but my understanding is that the passing score of 1440 is "scaled" by multiplying the MBE and the essay scores by 10, then taking the average. In other words, an MBE of 144 scales to 1440, which is on pace for passing.

If this is the case, then the passing score is essentially what would be a 288 in other states. Now, looking at the percentiles for Illinois takers, for example (these are easy to find...see https://www.ilbaradmissions.org/percentile-equivalent-charts-july-2015...I couldn't find percentiles for nationwide MEE results), you would only need to be in the top 97% or so of essay scores to get a 110. For this reason, it's pretty safe to say that a 178 on the MBE puts you in auto pass territory (since 110 points, later scaled to 1100, is more or less a given). Unfortunately, this means you need to be in the top 1% on the MBE to be in auto pass territory.

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TheSpanishMain
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby TheSpanishMain » Thu Jul 06, 2017 12:40 pm

Leo wrote:
anon sequitur wrote:It's impossible to know, the raw score needed for a particular scaled score varies from test to test, just like the LSAT. But since the MBE is a shittier test from a psychometric standpoint, it has wider variance. You just have to focus on what % you get right in prep. 70% is good, 80% is very good.


So does 70% = autopass in a state with 50% MBE / 50% essays? Recognizing, of course, that it's impossible to know. I'm looking for a ballpark estimate.


That's my understanding going in. Assuming 50% MBE and a passing score of 270, you'd have to REALLY fuck up the essays to fail with a 150ish MBE. Like, <5th percentile.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but that's the math I've come up with.

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WestWingWatcher
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby WestWingWatcher » Thu Jul 06, 2017 12:43 pm

TheSpanishMain wrote:
Leo wrote:
anon sequitur wrote:It's impossible to know, the raw score needed for a particular scaled score varies from test to test, just like the LSAT. But since the MBE is a shittier test from a psychometric standpoint, it has wider variance. You just have to focus on what % you get right in prep. 70% is good, 80% is very good.


So does 70% = autopass in a state with 50% MBE / 50% essays? Recognizing, of course, that it's impossible to know. I'm looking for a ballpark estimate.


That's my understanding going in. Assuming 50% MBE and a passing score of 270, you'd have to REALLY fuck up the essays to fail with a 150ish MBE. Like, <5th percentile.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but that's the math I've come up with.


I need this math to be true.

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nickpapagiorgio
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby nickpapagiorgio » Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:14 pm

TheSpanishMain wrote:That's my understanding going in. Assuming 50% MBE and a passing score of 270, you'd have to REALLY fuck up the essays to fail with a 150ish MBE. Like, <5th percentile.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but that's the math I've come up with.


A 50th percentile MBE would yield a score of ~140 (that's what it was in July '16). I think, assuming essays are scaled to MBE, you'd need to be around the 27th percentile (~130 scaled) on essays to get a score of 270 total (140+130).

A 73rd percentile MBE would yield a score of ~150 (that's what it was in July '16). I think, assuming essays are scaled to MBE, you'd need to be around the 11th percentile (~120 scaled) on essays to get a score of 270 total (150+120).

https://app.box.com/s/baylbp8oq8sm8uit7mxmw5y9gcxytxsw

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TheSpanishMain
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby TheSpanishMain » Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:16 pm

nickpapagiorgio wrote:
TheSpanishMain wrote:That's my understanding going in. Assuming 50% MBE and a passing score of 270, you'd have to REALLY fuck up the essays to fail with a 150ish MBE. Like, <5th percentile.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but that's the math I've come up with.


A 50th percentile MBE would yield a score of ~140 (that's what it was in July '16). I think, assuming essays are scaled to MBE, you'd need to be around the 27th percentile (~130 scaled) on essays to get a score of 270 total (140+130).

https://app.box.com/s/baylbp8oq8sm8uit7mxmw5y9gcxytxsw


When I said 50% MBE, I meant a jurisdiction that weights the MBE 50%, not scoring in the 50th percentile on the MBE. My bad, should have made that more clear.

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nickpapagiorgio
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby nickpapagiorgio » Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:18 pm

TheSpanishMain wrote:
When I said 50% MBE, I meant a jurisdiction that weights the MBE 50%, not scoring in the 50th percentile on the MBE. My bad, should have made that more clear.


Updated the post. Looks like you'd need ~11th percentile on essays to get a 270, assuming you got a 150 on the MBE.

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Leo
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby Leo » Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:10 pm

nickpapagiorgio wrote:
TheSpanishMain wrote:That's my understanding going in. Assuming 50% MBE and a passing score of 270, you'd have to REALLY fuck up the essays to fail with a 150ish MBE. Like, <5th percentile.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but that's the math I've come up with.


A 50th percentile MBE would yield a score of ~140 (that's what it was in July '16). I think, assuming essays are scaled to MBE, you'd need to be around the 27th percentile (~130 scaled) on essays to get a score of 270 total (140+130).

A 73rd percentile MBE would yield a score of ~150 (that's what it was in July '16). I think, assuming essays are scaled to MBE, you'd need to be around the 11th percentile (~120 scaled) on essays to get a score of 270 total (150+120).

https://app.box.com/s/baylbp8oq8sm8uit7mxmw5y9gcxytxsw


What about 99th percentile MBE? We're talking bottom 1% on essays, right?

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nickpapagiorgio
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby nickpapagiorgio » Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:12 pm

Leo wrote:


What about 99th percentile MBE? We're talking bottom 1% on essays, right?


That sounds about right. Download the spreadsheet and play with the numbers. Probably not the best strategy though, banking on 99th percentile.

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TheSpanishMain
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby TheSpanishMain » Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:13 pm

Yeah, it would be literally impossible for a 170 MBE to fail.

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Leo
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby Leo » Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:07 pm

nickpapagiorgio wrote:
Leo wrote:


What about 99th percentile MBE? We're talking bottom 1% on essays, right?


That sounds about right. Download the spreadsheet and play with the numbers. Probably not the best strategy though, banking on 99th percentile.


Is Barbri Simulated MBE a good indicator? Got 99th percentile on that (171 raw). I've heard conflicting reports on how similar Barbri practice questions are to the real deal.

BigZuck
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Postby BigZuck » Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:16 pm

Leo wrote:
nickpapagiorgio wrote:
Leo wrote:


What about 99th percentile MBE? We're talking bottom 1% on essays, right?


That sounds about right. Download the spreadsheet and play with the numbers. Probably not the best strategy though, banking on 99th percentile.


Is Barbri Simulated MBE a good indicator? Got 99th percentile on that (171 raw). I've heard conflicting reports on how similar Barbri practice questions are to the real deal.

BVest wrote:FWIW, here's a spreadsheet from 2015 where we self reported our practice MBE score and our final scaled score. If you sort by bar prep you get mean increases of (parenthetical range is ± 1 StDev):

Barbri +27.5 (+15.9 - +39.1)
Kaplan + 24.0 (+13.5 - + 34.5)
Themis + 22.0 (+11.4 - + 32.6)

Obviously, given the timing of the various courses' practice MBEs at about 3-4 weeks out from the bar, some of the increase will be due to additional studying and some will be due to the scaling.

If I'm reading this right you should expect about a 195 on the real deal (give or take), thus literally breaking the bar exam with your smarts.




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