hung jury wrote:ahnhub wrote: If you applied 6,000 total JD attrition (which seems to be what's been happening: --LinkRemoved--) you get down to 34,000 JD's graduating in 2015.
I think that probably overstates the effect. If I had to guess total 1st-year enrollment will probably stay north of 40,000.
Thanks for tallying this.
It is at least conceivable that the attrition rates might also increase a little if at least a significant portion of law students are becoming informed about how poor their job prospect are if they aren't in the top X of their class. Probably wishful thinking but there is a large percentage who should be dropping out after 1L year who are not behaving rationally.
I think we'll see some school closures soon, for the simple reason that tenure track/tenured faculty are hard to fire unless you shutter the whole department and it is doubtful that all of the present schools will be able to preserve their current faculty. A law school isn't the kind of department that can justify itself to the rest of a university unless it is in the black.
The reason I'm hesitant to say actual enrollment will collapse is because schools can still choose to admit more and more less qualified applicants. Interestingly, it seems like most T1/T2 schools like Hastings are going with reduced class sizes. But if it came down to admitting more people or closing its doors, I would presume a school would go with the former.