Post Exam Predictions

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Predict where you will place

Poll ended at Mon Jan 02, 2012 11:47 pm

Top 10%
16
15%
Top 20%
12
11%
Top Third
25
23%
Median
26
24%
Below Median
14
13%
Down the Rabbit Hole
17
15%
 
Total votes: 110

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CactusPuppy
Posts: 97
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2011 9:56 am

Re: Post Exam Predictions

Postby CactusPuppy » Sat Dec 31, 2011 2:31 am

Peg wrote:I'm starting to feel convinced that I'll get Bs or Cs in everything - I'm going to hate myself so much in a couple of weeks. It's going to suck.


I'm stressing too.

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Dale
Posts: 84
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:58 am

Re: Post Exam Predictions

Postby Dale » Sat Dec 31, 2011 2:15 pm

D'Angelo wrote:
sidhesadie wrote:No, 50% of people voting would not necessarily have to fall below median, and it doesn't matter if 46% of us think they will be in the top 1/3, because we aren't in the same class.

is this what he was asking?

A part of what I was asking, if the curve is based on having 50 musical chairs for 100 students, then yes I agree, 50% will be left standing in the land of below median. Since I do not grasp all the intricacies of the grading curve perhaps “musical chairs” is not an accurate hypothetical.

Maybe someone more knowledgeable could explain how the curve system works, If there are 100 students, will the median cutoff always be the 50th student?

Perhaps after the grades are released we can move from predictions to results.

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D'Angelo
Posts: 165
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2011 10:29 am

Re: Post Exam Predictions

Postby D'Angelo » Sat Dec 31, 2011 3:04 pm

Dale wrote:
D'Angelo wrote:
sidhesadie wrote:No, 50% of people voting would not necessarily have to fall below median, and it doesn't matter if 46% of us think they will be in the top 1/3, because we aren't in the same class.

is this what he was asking?

A part of what I was asking, if the curve is based on having 50 musical chairs for 100 students, then yes I agree, 50% will be left standing in the land of below median. Since I do not grasp all the intricacies of the grading curve perhaps “musical chairs” is not an accurate hypothetical.

Maybe someone more knowledgeable could explain how the curve system works, If there are 100 students, will the median cutoff always be the 50th student?

Perhaps after the grades are released we can move from predictions to results.

by definition the median is between #50 and #51 in that case! median specifically means 50% above and 50% below.

User avatar
cinephile
Posts: 3469
Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2010 3:50 pm

Re: Post Exam Predictions

Postby cinephile » Sat Dec 31, 2011 3:18 pm

I heard a rumor our grades come out on Jan. 6th. I'm both excited and terrified.

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Kendi
Posts: 97
Joined: Sat Jun 25, 2011 4:00 pm

Re: Post Exam Predictions

Postby Kendi » Sun Jan 01, 2012 12:52 pm

D'Angelo wrote:by definition the median is between #50 and #51 in that case! median specifically means 50% above and 50% below.

We will all place in one of the two 50% columns, the good or the deficient. After that it is all about how high up the rung you placed or how to handle the depth of disparity.

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MG95
Posts: 2551
Joined: Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:37 pm

Re: Post Exam Predictions

Postby MG95 » Sun Jan 01, 2012 1:15 pm

Fuck slack
Last edited by MG95 on Mon Apr 11, 2016 1:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.

nymario
Posts: 239
Joined: Mon Apr 05, 2010 7:57 pm

Re: Post Exam Predictions

Postby nymario » Mon Jan 02, 2012 3:04 am

3 students, curved to 3.0 -
1. A A A A 4.0
2. B B C C 2.5
3. C C B B 2.5

Median = 2.5
Students above median = 33%
Students at or above median = 100%
Students at median = 67%
Students at or below median = 67%
Students below median = 0%

Note that the overall median is not necessarily the same as the curved mean (which is likely the median in any given class).

thesteelers
Posts: 218
Joined: Sun May 01, 2011 6:06 am

Re: Post Exam Predictions

Postby thesteelers » Mon Jan 02, 2012 3:43 am

These threads are kind of reassuring, because my section mates are keeping up the confident posturing, the "look at my big dick swing as I swagger" thing. Even when you can guess that it's posturing, even when you're also keeping up a confident facade, all of that still makes you wonder if you're the only one who is freaking out this much and this certain of failure.

User avatar
D'Angelo
Posts: 165
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2011 10:29 am

Re: Post Exam Predictions

Postby D'Angelo » Mon Jan 02, 2012 11:55 am

nymario wrote:3 students, curved to 3.0 -
1. A A A A 4.0
2. B B C C 2.5
3. C C B B 2.5

Median = 2.5
Students above median = 33%
Students at or above median = 100%
Students at median = 67%
Students at or below median = 67%
Students below median = 0%

Note that the overall median is not necessarily the same as the curved mean (which is likely the median in any given class).

because you have a sample size of 3! most of this cannot happen with a sample size of 200 or more...although depending on the curve median and mean can still be fairly far apart

User avatar
D'Angelo
Posts: 165
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2011 10:29 am

Re: Post Exam Predictions

Postby D'Angelo » Mon Jan 02, 2012 11:57 am

thesteelers wrote:These threads are kind of reassuring, because my section mates are keeping up the confident posturing, the "look at my big dick swing as I swagger" thing. Even when you can guess that it's posturing, even when you're also keeping up a confident facade, all of that still makes you wonder if you're the only one who is freaking out this much and this certain of failure.

vicious cycle! ours just goes in the opposite direction

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Dale
Posts: 84
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:58 am

Re: Post Exam Predictions

Postby Dale » Tue Jan 03, 2012 12:03 am

Lots of ways to slice n’ dice the estimates of 110 exam takers.

• 24% believe they will be in the top 20%.
• 46% think they will be in the third.
• 69% feel that they will be at median or better.
• 27% below median.

Thanks for participating.

User avatar
Arbiter213
Posts: 2249
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:16 pm

Re: Post Exam Predictions

Postby Arbiter213 » Sat Jan 07, 2012 2:13 pm

For the record, my prediction was correct.




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