Highlights from today's "Don't drop out" seminar

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random5483
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Re: Highlights from today's "Don't drop out" seminar

Postby random5483 » Thu Feb 17, 2011 4:16 am

The only thing we (especially 1Ls) can hope for is a better economy. Even if less students are attending law school (doubt acceptances are any lower than before), we will be looking for our first jobs before the current 0L class; thus, the current 0L class size will have little impact on our initial job prospects. In the long-term, perhaps a reduction in matriculating students might help the legal market, but in the next few years the only thing that can improve the market is more jobs (or tons of students dropping out which is unlikely).


Not trying to be pessimistic here. I am glad I went to law school and I am not too worried about my prospects (ok, maybe a little nervous, but I knew what I was signing up for). However, people should face the realities of the market today.

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rman1201
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Re: Highlights from today's "Don't drop out" seminar

Postby rman1201 » Thu Feb 17, 2011 11:55 am

gwuorbust wrote:
rman1201 wrote:
Do you have any sort of data to support your assumption that only less qualified students are not applying?


that is not necessary. I never said it was just less qualified students. Take a school like Emory. They have a cut off at like 166. But they reject thousands of people with scores below that. So lets say they have a 10% reduction in applications across the board. So now instead of their class being made up of 100% students who are only 166+, now their class will be 90% 166+ and 10% 165s. Bam! their class is still filled. This is common sense. Everyone just dips a little lower and then their classes are filled.

The number of applications is going back to 2007 level. I want you to show me which ABA approved schools that couldn't fill all of their seats in 2007. Oh wait, that's right -- all schools have been filling all of their classes for years. The only schools that could have a problem are those that accept EVERYONE who applies. But not even Florida Coastal accepts everyone who applies.


If there are fewer applicants with as high of numbers this could (and probably will) result in top schools reducing their class sizes to maintain ranking, therefore we do end up with fewer lawyers from top schools to compete with.
It's not going to be drastic, maybe a couple seats per school for now, but it's still an effect combined with the effects of rebounding employment.

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Kohinoor
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Re: Highlights from today's "Don't drop out" seminar

Postby Kohinoor » Thu Feb 17, 2011 1:02 pm

rman1201 wrote:
gwuorbust wrote:
rman1201 wrote:
Do you have any sort of data to support your assumption that only less qualified students are not applying?


that is not necessary. I never said it was just less qualified students. Take a school like Emory. They have a cut off at like 166. But they reject thousands of people with scores below that. So lets say they have a 10% reduction in applications across the board. So now instead of their class being made up of 100% students who are only 166+, now their class will be 90% 166+ and 10% 165s. Bam! their class is still filled. This is common sense. Everyone just dips a little lower and then their classes are filled.

The number of applications is going back to 2007 level. I want you to show me which ABA approved schools that couldn't fill all of their seats in 2007. Oh wait, that's right -- all schools have been filling all of their classes for years. The only schools that could have a problem are those that accept EVERYONE who applies. But not even Florida Coastal accepts everyone who applies.


If there are fewer applicants with as high of numbers this could (and probably will) result in top schools reducing their class sizes to maintain ranking, therefore we do end up with fewer lawyers from top schools to compete with.
It's not going to be drastic, maybe a couple seats per school for now, but it's still an effect combined with the effects of rebounding employment.

Wouldn't the rankings remain the same and just have median LSATs scale down across the board?

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rman1201
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Re: Highlights from today's "Don't drop out" seminar

Postby rman1201 » Thu Feb 17, 2011 1:08 pm

Kohinoor wrote:
rman1201 wrote:
gwuorbust wrote:
rman1201 wrote:
Do you have any sort of data to support your assumption that only less qualified students are not applying?


that is not necessary. I never said it was just less qualified students. Take a school like Emory. They have a cut off at like 166. But they reject thousands of people with scores below that. So lets say they have a 10% reduction in applications across the board. So now instead of their class being made up of 100% students who are only 166+, now their class will be 90% 166+ and 10% 165s. Bam! their class is still filled. This is common sense. Everyone just dips a little lower and then their classes are filled.

The number of applications is going back to 2007 level. I want you to show me which ABA approved schools that couldn't fill all of their seats in 2007. Oh wait, that's right -- all schools have been filling all of their classes for years. The only schools that could have a problem are those that accept EVERYONE who applies. But not even Florida Coastal accepts everyone who applies.


If there are fewer applicants with as high of numbers this could (and probably will) result in top schools reducing their class sizes to maintain ranking, therefore we do end up with fewer lawyers from top schools to compete with.
It's not going to be drastic, maybe a couple seats per school for now, but it's still an effect combined with the effects of rebounding employment.

Wouldn't the rankings remain the same and just have median LSATs scale down across the board?


I was assuming schools would seek to maintain medians and reduce class sizes.
Either way -
semi-easier to gain admissions or fewer law students, win/win.
Last edited by rman1201 on Thu Feb 17, 2011 1:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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gwuorbust
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Re: Highlights from today's "Don't drop out" seminar

Postby gwuorbust » Thu Feb 17, 2011 1:17 pm

Kohinoor wrote:Wouldn't the rankings remain the same and just have median LSATs scale down across the board?


That is exactly what is going to happen.

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Wholigan
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Re: Highlights from today's "Don't drop out" seminar

Postby Wholigan » Thu Feb 17, 2011 1:58 pm

rman1201 wrote:I was assuming schools would seek to maintain medians and reduce class sizes.
Either way -
semi-easier to gain admissions or fewer law students, win/win.


Why would any school reduce class sizes? I read in one of the rankings that recently came out that total-full time enrollment, total part-time enrollement, first-year enrollment, and total enrollment are four of the key categories in ranking the quality of law schools.

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rman1201
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Re: Highlights from today's "Don't drop out" seminar

Postby rman1201 » Thu Feb 17, 2011 2:39 pm

Wholigan wrote:
rman1201 wrote:I was assuming schools would seek to maintain medians and reduce class sizes.
Either way -
semi-easier to gain admissions or fewer law students, win/win.


Why would any school reduce class sizes? I read in one of the rankings that recently came out that total-full time enrollment, total part-time enrollement, first-year enrollment, and total enrollment are four of the key categories in ranking the quality of law schools.


Admit % goes down (or stays the same as other schools who dont reduce sizes goes up) and Medians (due to not filling seats with lower #s) go up.
Both of those factors affect ranking.

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gwuorbust
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Re: Highlights from today's "Don't drop out" seminar

Postby gwuorbust » Thu Feb 17, 2011 3:39 pm

Wholigan wrote:
rman1201 wrote:I was assuming schools would seek to maintain medians and reduce class sizes.
Either way -
semi-easier to gain admissions or fewer law students, win/win.


Why would any school reduce class sizes? I read in one of the rankings that recently came out that total-full time enrollment, total part-time enrollement, first-year enrollment, and total enrollment are four of the key categories in ranking the quality of law schools.


law schools are not going to decrease their class sizes. law schools are cash cows that often support the cost of other programs. think about how even as the need of law school graduates goes down, the number of law schools keeps going up. why? cause they are huge money makers.

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rman1201
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Re: Highlights from today's "Don't drop out" seminar

Postby rman1201 » Thu Feb 17, 2011 3:48 pm

gwuorbust wrote:
Wholigan wrote:
rman1201 wrote:I was assuming schools would seek to maintain medians and reduce class sizes.
Either way -
semi-easier to gain admissions or fewer law students, win/win.


Why would any school reduce class sizes? I read in one of the rankings that recently came out that total-full time enrollment, total part-time enrollement, first-year enrollment, and total enrollment are four of the key categories in ranking the quality of law schools.


law schools are not going to decrease their class sizes. law schools are cash cows that often support the cost of other programs. think about how even as the need of law school graduates goes down, the number of law schools keeps going up. why? cause they are huge money makers.


Schools do make some present $$$ sacrifices for the sake of ranking (future $$$) - hence the existence of scholarships. Smaller class sizes are functionally equivalent to giving out scholarships, they're saving medians, lowering admit %, and increasing ranking, all of which will result in more apps in the future / greater alumni donations.

I'm not even sure what we're arguing over (or why). We can always just wait a few months and see for ourselves what schools take what routes.

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Borhas
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Re: Highlights from today's "Don't drop out" seminar

Postby Borhas » Fri Feb 18, 2011 5:25 pm

gwuorbust wrote:
Wholigan wrote:
rman1201 wrote:I was assuming schools would seek to maintain medians and reduce class sizes.
Either way -
semi-easier to gain admissions or fewer law students, win/win.


Why would any school reduce class sizes? I read in one of the rankings that recently came out that total-full time enrollment, total part-time enrollement, first-year enrollment, and total enrollment are four of the key categories in ranking the quality of law schools.


law schools are not going to decrease their class sizes. law schools are cash cows that often support the cost of other programs. think about how even as the need of law school graduates goes down, the number of law schools keeps going up. why? cause they are huge money makers.


UC Hastings decreased incoming class size from 475 last year to 380 this year

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zeth006
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Re: Highlights from today's "Don't drop out" seminar

Postby zeth006 » Wed Feb 23, 2011 6:08 pm

Borhas wrote:
gwuorbust wrote:
Wholigan wrote:
rman1201 wrote:I was assuming schools would seek to maintain medians and reduce class sizes.
Either way -
semi-easier to gain admissions or fewer law students, win/win.


Why would any school reduce class sizes? I read in one of the rankings that recently came out that total-full time enrollment, total part-time enrollement, first-year enrollment, and total enrollment are four of the key categories in ranking the quality of law schools.


law schools are not going to decrease their class sizes. law schools are cash cows that often support the cost of other programs. think about how even as the need of law school graduates goes down, the number of law schools keeps going up. why? cause they are huge money makers.


UC Hastings decreased incoming class size from 475 last year to 380 this year


Confirmed.

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TatteredDignity
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Re: Highlights from today's "Don't drop out" seminar

Postby TatteredDignity » Wed Feb 23, 2011 6:16 pm

WUSTL is dropping from 275 last year to 250 this year.

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drmguy
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Re: Highlights from today's "Don't drop out" seminar

Postby drmguy » Wed Feb 23, 2011 6:20 pm

That's just stupid. Schools would never decrease their numbers... :roll:




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