dude, it doesn't matter that you demonstrate that you want Yale, they have to want YOU.. top 5% at NYU means there's like 20 other kids with better grades than you at NYU, they're all not locks at Yale, you better have done something amazing pre-law school, and be able to compete with those Columbia top 5% as well
I agree with your premise that they have to want you, but you're assuming that the top 5% at the T14 is by-and-large trying to transfer to HYS. This isn't the case. Top 5% at T14 are well-advised to stay put, and I will venture a guess that most will. Because it is less common than you think (given the very real cons of transferring from that position), top 5% at NYU seems to have an excellent shot.
[Full disclosure: I do have a dog in this hunt, because I am Top 5% at a T40 (although 2-3%), with some great softs/recs and a compelling story. Not a lock anywhere, obviously, but in the running.]