EIW 2010/Summer 2011 Predictions

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How will law firm Summer Associate recruiting and hiring be one year from now?

Better than this year
18
64%
Worse than this year
2
7%
The same/similar to this year
8
29%
 
Total votes: 28

garsog
Posts: 2
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2009 3:41 pm

EIW 2010/Summer 2011 Predictions

Postby garsog » Mon Sep 21, 2009 3:57 pm

What is law firm hiring likely to be like one year from now?

Argument that it will be worse or the same next year:
The economy will likely stay the same or get worse. Even if it gets better in the next year, employment rates lag behind the stock market, so a boost in business in the country will not translate into a boost in hiring. Also, even if the economy and hiring both pick up, there will be a huge supply of laid-off junior associates with desirable work experience looking for jobs, qualified 3Ls who didn't get a summer position when they were 2Ls due to the economy, and new law school graduates who were no offered after their 2L summer job and who struck out as 3Ls looking for jobs due to the economy. Because employers will be less likely to turn their noses at these alternate applicants (understanding how bad the economy was in 2009), these alternate applicants will hurt next year's 2Ls and make their EIW as bad as this year's was.

Argument that it will be better next year:
It seems that one year from now odds are the economy will be the same or better, but not worse. Summer Associate hiring will not lag behind the market, because firms, if they see the market improving, will know they will need increased numbers of associates in 1.5 years (the time it takes for a prospective SA to start working at the firm). Even if the economy stays the same, this year's hiring is/was hurt by more than the economy. This year, law firms have a backlog of deferred new associates they will have to deal with in 2010 and 2011, and firms had larger than they would have liked summer 2009 summer classes. Many firms have made offers to most or all of their 2009 summer classes. In order to compensate for the current oversupply of new associates and in fear that the economy will stagnate or get worse, they drastically cut the size of their 2010 summer class. They not have these same issues next year, and hiring should thus pick up. Also, the supply of no offered 3Ls and laid-off associates will not be more attractive to firms than next-year's 2Ls will be, because firms want to keep up appearances and maintain a strong presence in the main traditional source of new associates, 2L EIW.


What other factors am I missing here?

User avatar
TTT-LS
Posts: 764
Joined: Fri Jan 18, 2008 5:36 pm

Re: EIW 2010/Summer 2011 Predictions

Postby TTT-LS » Mon Sep 21, 2009 4:24 pm

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Last edited by TTT-LS on Mon Jun 28, 2010 8:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Anonymous User
Posts: 273183
Joined: Tue Aug 11, 2009 9:32 am

Re: EIW 2010/Summer 2011 Predictions

Postby Anonymous User » Mon Sep 21, 2009 4:27 pm

Assuming the economy doesn't go into a further downturn and recovery stays on the same course as it has been the past few months, it will definitely be better. Over the summer, this was a topic of conversation at my firm and associates and partners alike thought that 2011 grads would have the worst OCI season of this downturn.

garsog
Posts: 2
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2009 3:41 pm

Re: EIW 2010/Summer 2011 Predictions

Postby garsog » Mon Sep 21, 2009 8:49 pm

TTT-LS wrote:I get your desire to know how your interviews will be and all, but there is no intelligent way to speculate on this question right now. None. Too many variables, not least of which is the state of the economy at the time.


No intelligent way? Sure there is. We can predict what the business cycle is going to do; plenty of people make their living doing this. Law firms don't determine their hiring needs from a crystal ball. And to speculate... well sheesh, that doesn't even require accuracy.

User avatar
TTT-LS
Posts: 764
Joined: Fri Jan 18, 2008 5:36 pm

Re: EIW 2010/Summer 2011 Predictions

Postby TTT-LS » Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:08 pm

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