Bonus Speculation

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bearsfan23
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby bearsfan23 » Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:05 pm

rpupkin wrote:
jbagelboy wrote:bonuses are not moving. let's not fucking kid ourselves

But, as was pointed out earlier in this thread, stagnant bonuses would be very bad for associate morale. And if I've learned one thing during my years in this profession, it's that big law firms will not tolerate low associate morale.


Maybe at your firm. IME, I really don't think most partners give any fucks about whether associates are happy.

Perhaps your close, open door relationship with your firm's partnership is preventing you from seeing the forest through the trees

toast and bananas
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby toast and bananas » Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:11 pm

bearsfan23 wrote:
rpupkin wrote:
jbagelboy wrote:bonuses are not moving. let's not fucking kid ourselves

But, as was pointed out earlier in this thread, stagnant bonuses would be very bad for associate morale. And if I've learned one thing during my years in this profession, it's that big law firms will not tolerate low associate morale.


Maybe at your firm. IME, I really don't think most partners give any fucks about whether associates are happy.

Perhaps your close, open door relationship with your firm's partnership is preventing you from seeing the forest through the trees


woooosh

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LaLiLuLeLo
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby LaLiLuLeLo » Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:55 pm

Of course partners care about associate morale. That's why they buy us La Croix in 3 different flavors.

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Monochromatic Oeuvre
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby Monochromatic Oeuvre » Sat Oct 28, 2017 2:01 am

anonnymouse wrote:I'll throw my hat into the stagnant ring.

If I thought MO's bookmaking offers were sincere, I'd throw $3750 on stagnant. Assuming we're doing this on a cash/unreported basis, I would expect the $1250 to be a perfect hedge on a post-tax basis.

Edit: scratch that, I think $2500 would be a perfect hedge.


Whoa, a risk-averse lawyer!

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jkpolk
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby jkpolk » Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:33 am

Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:
anonnymouse wrote:I'll throw my hat into the stagnant ring.

If I thought MO's bookmaking offers were sincere, I'd throw $3750 on stagnant. Assuming we're doing this on a cash/unreported basis, I would expect the $1250 to be a perfect hedge on a post-tax basis.

Edit: scratch that, I think $2500 would be a perfect hedge.


Whoa, a risk-averse lawyer!


:lol: downward revision of the hypothetical hedge on chalk is amazing

anonnymouse
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby anonnymouse » Sat Oct 28, 2017 10:16 pm

Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:
anonnymouse wrote:I'll throw my hat into the stagnant ring.

If I thought MO's bookmaking offers were sincere, I'd throw $3750 on stagnant. Assuming we're doing this on a cash/unreported basis, I would expect the $1250 to be a perfect hedge on a post-tax basis.

Edit: scratch that, I think $2500 would be a perfect hedge.


Whoa, a risk-averse lawyer!

There are dozens of us. Dozens!

anonnymouse
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby anonnymouse » Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:33 pm

Monday after Thanksgiving is 11/27. Seems a bit on the early side for recent announcements. To add to my earlier bet, I'll put 100 Schrute Bucks on 12/4 in the calendar pool.

MillllerTime
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby MillllerTime » Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:50 am

I'm pretty pessimistic about this kind of crap, but there are too many top firms with revenue up 20% + this year, I think there's a decent chance someone jumps on it.

My prediction is a stagnant bonus on 12/1, 3-5 matches and then a top the next week. Original firms match, but too late, all associates quit within 20 minutes of being topped.

dabigchina
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby dabigchina » Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:56 am

MillllerTime wrote:I'm pretty pessimistic about this kind of crap, but there are too many top firms with revenue up 20% + this year, I think there's a decent chance someone jumps on it.

My prediction is a stagnant bonus on 12/1, 3-5 matches and then a top the next week. Original firms match, but too late, all associates quit within 20 minutes of being topped.

Are revenue/ppp numbers out? I thought Amlaw numbers didn't come out the Amlaw 100 numbers came out next year.

MillllerTime
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby MillllerTime » Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:06 am

dabigchina wrote:
MillllerTime wrote:I'm pretty pessimistic about this kind of crap, but there are too many top firms with revenue up 20% + this year, I think there's a decent chance someone jumps on it.

My prediction is a stagnant bonus on 12/1, 3-5 matches and then a top the next week. Original firms match, but too late, all associates quit within 20 minutes of being topped.

Are revenue/ppp numbers out? I thought Amlaw numbers didn't come out the Amlaw 100 numbers came out next year.


No - certainly nothing official, but I know of multiple firms that have given presentations to associates indicating as much.

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2014
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby 2014 » Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:26 am

Really depends on what kind of a year Cravath is having, but i think the odds of a nominal increase are better than most people think.

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Capitol_Idea
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby Capitol_Idea » Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:39 am

Cravath stands strong with stagnant bonuses. Associate morale plummets, dissent foments in the ranks.

Simpson can't resist. The year has been too good, and they are as ever aggressive on one-upping the old guard market leaders. They raise associate salaries starting at 200K.

Cravath associate resignation threats flood in and the firm quickly caves, raising salaries to match AND putting record bonuses starting at 10K up from last year for the first year bonus.

Cleary, Davis Polk, and others quickly rise to match.

The partners are broken, their days of hoarding the wealth over. Meekly they accede to stronger Associate Committee leadership involvement, 401 matches, and diet Dr. Pepper stocked in every fridge.

A golden new era of the proud, respected associate is upon us. Bask, my children, in the sunlight that is to come!

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Nagster5
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby Nagster5 » Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:06 pm

I for one won't stop until bonuses include a firm equity stake and a promotion to partner.

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2014
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby 2014 » Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:47 pm

Capitol_Idea wrote:Cravath stands strong with stagnant bonuses. Associate morale plummets, dissent foments in the ranks.

Simpson can't resist. The year has been too good, and they are as ever aggressive on one-upping the old guard market leaders. They raise associate salaries starting at 200K.

Cravath associate resignation threats flood in and the firm quickly caves, raising salaries to match AND putting record bonuses starting at 10K up from last year for the first year bonus.

Cleary, Davis Polk, and others quickly rise to match.

The partners are broken, their days of hoarding the wealth over. Meekly they accede to stronger Associate Committee leadership involvement, 401 matches, and diet Dr. Pepper stocked in every fridge.

A golden new era of the proud, respected associate is upon us. Bask, my children, in the sunlight that is to come!

In

PorscheFanatic
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby PorscheFanatic » Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:54 pm

Could we actually see a salary bump this year? I'd prefer a little extra money all year long over a bonus, but both would be real chill.

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rpupkin
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby rpupkin » Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:01 pm

PorscheFanatic wrote:Could we actually see a salary bump this year?

NYC to 190 has been confirmed for awhile.

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SplitMyPants
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby SplitMyPants » Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:19 pm

LaLiLuLeLo wrote:Of course partners care about associate morale. That's why they buy us La Croix in 3 different flavors.


my firm switched to generic sparkling water after my summer... should i worried? :shock:

Anonymous User
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby Anonymous User » Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:20 pm

I wouldn't be so optimistic. If the GOP tax plan passes, NYC law firms/partners may suffer quite a bit (see: https://www.law360.com/articles/981660). Given the likelihood of it passing, I can't see firms jacking up first year (or anyone's) salaries/other expenditures anytime soon.

BigZuck
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby BigZuck » Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:22 pm

Anonymous User wrote:I wouldn't be so optimistic. If the GOP tax plan passes, NYC law firms/partners may suffer quite a bit (see: https://www.law360.com/articles/981660). Given the likelihood of it passing, I can't see firms jacking up first year (or anyone's) salaries/other expenditures anytime soon.

MODS

mvp99
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby mvp99 » Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:30 pm

BigZuck wrote:
Anonymous User wrote:I wouldn't be so optimistic. If the GOP tax plan passes, NYC law firms/partners may suffer quite a bit (see: https://www.law360.com/articles/981660). Given the likelihood of it passing, I can't see firms jacking up first year (or anyone's) salaries/other expenditures anytime soon.

MODS

Wouldn't we also suffer? I think we should expect to pay a couple grand more in fed taxes.

Anonymous User
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby Anonymous User » Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:15 pm

RaceJudicata wrote:
LaLiLuLeLo wrote:What kind of cost cutting? Getting rid of outdated services like the library/librarian is unfortunate but understandable. Getting rid of snacks is not.

Anyway, our hopes really lie with Cravath with dark horse S&C and maybe STB?


Ya interested as to what cost cutting measures are happening places.


The move to high-deductible health plans is probably the biggest one. DPW did it a couple of years ago, STB is transitioning this year, I think a few other very profitable firms (like Paul Weiss) are moving or have moved recently also.

mvp99 wrote:
BigZuck wrote:
Anonymous User wrote:I wouldn't be so optimistic. If the GOP tax plan passes, NYC law firms/partners may suffer quite a bit (see: https://www.law360.com/articles/981660). Given the likelihood of it passing, I can't see firms jacking up first year (or anyone's) salaries/other expenditures anytime soon.

MODS

Wouldn't we also suffer? I think we should expect to pay a couple grand more in fed taxes.


Depends I think on your personal circumstances. If all you were ever deducting was state income tax, and you're a single person with no kids, it should be close to a wash, especially if you're a more senior associate getting into the income range where the personal exemption starts to phase out (around 250k). But your taxes are definitely going up if you have a mortgage or donate a lot to charity (since you're not going to benefit from the standard deduction going up to counterbalance the loss of the state tax deduction) or if you have a bunch of kids.
Last edited by Anonymous User on Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Anonymous User
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby Anonymous User » Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:20 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
RaceJudicata wrote:
LaLiLuLeLo wrote:What kind of cost cutting? Getting rid of outdated services like the library/librarian is unfortunate but understandable. Getting rid of snacks is not.

Anyway, our hopes really lie with Cravath with dark horse S&C and maybe STB?


Ya interested as to what cost cutting measures are happening places.


The move to high-deductible health plans is probably the biggest one. DPW did it a couple of years ago, STB is transitioning this year, I think a few other very profitable firms (like Paul Weiss) are moving or have moved recently also.

Latham also taking away JR associate offices in NY and other smaller markets.

Anonymous User
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby Anonymous User » Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:43 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Anonymous User wrote:
RaceJudicata wrote:
LaLiLuLeLo wrote:What kind of cost cutting? Getting rid of outdated services like the library/librarian is unfortunate but understandable. Getting rid of snacks is not.

Anyway, our hopes really lie with Cravath with dark horse S&C and maybe STB?


Ya interested as to what cost cutting measures are happening places.


The move to high-deductible health plans is probably the biggest one. DPW did it a couple of years ago, STB is transitioning this year, I think a few other very profitable firms (like Paul Weiss) are moving or have moved recently also.

Latham also taking away JR associate offices in NY and other smaller markets.


Interesting, I heard from someone at LW that this was strictly a space issue, not cost-cutting. I think they didn't start renos soon enough, but didn't know it was happening in non-NY offices.

Anonymous User
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby Anonymous User » Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:47 pm

In addition to concerns about partners' taxes going up, their relative after-tax income would plummet if many of their friends are paying 25% on business income. That drives people's decision making more than absolute wealth/income.

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jkpolk
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Re: Bonus Speculation

Postby jkpolk » Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:58 pm

2014 wrote:
Capitol_Idea wrote:Cravath stands strong with stagnant bonuses. Associate morale plummets, dissent foments in the ranks.

Simpson can't resist. The year has been too good, and they are as ever aggressive on one-upping the old guard market leaders. They raise associate salaries starting at 200K.

Cravath associate resignation threats flood in and the firm quickly caves, raising salaries to match AND putting record bonuses starting at 10K up from last year for the first year bonus.

Cleary, Davis Polk, and others quickly rise to match.

The partners are broken, their days of hoarding the wealth over. Meekly they accede to stronger Associate Committee leadership involvement, 401 matches, and diet Dr. Pepper stocked in every fridge.

A golden new era of the proud, respected associate is upon us. Bask, my children, in the sunlight that is to come!

In

associates STRIKE for TWO fridges of DDP




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