How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby Anonymous User » Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:51 pm

Putting aside the possibility of certain long-tail events which would basically eliminate the US legal system as we know it, it's largely going to depend on whether you think an ideal republican administration (control of all three branches) is going to create a booming economy not which will drive M+A and finance activity. Either way, here are two things litigators in biglaw especially need to be concerned about (not trying to argue if these would be good or bad for the country as a whole):

1) This is basically an ideal enviornment to cut the head off the mass tort/securities lit bar. Trump is no stranger to litigation but he mostly either preemptively sues or gets sued and countersues. He's going to be very supportive of Congress's attempts to further gut the litigation bar (especially if it screws over creditors or lenders which a lot of institutional plaintiffs are). This might not really concern your average slip and fall lawyer since they are in state court but firms that primarily practice in fed court will find it harder to move into discovery. That's without considering the judges he will appoint and how they will rule.

2) Government investigations work is a hugely profitable practice in lit right now - I'd estimate half of some major firms. The republicans are likely to work aggressively to scale back the regulatory agencies that oversee the financial sector, and you will see fewer investigations that are being aggressively pursued.

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby Anonymous User » Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:56 pm

How do you think it will effect the bankruptcy/restructuring market?

RaceJudicata

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby RaceJudicata » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:23 pm

Anonymous User wrote:How do you think it will effect the bankruptcy/restructuring market?


Bottom line: No one knows what will happen (if anything). Everything said so far is pure speculation. Yes, there are certain obvious inferences that can be made, but at the end of the day, no one knows what the impact of Trump will be on the legal industry.

At best, saying a certain field will boom is speculation; at worst, saying a sector is going to tank is fear mongering. Until something happens, no one really knows.

Let's not let TLS become facebook and determine that the world is going to come crashing down (or according to my newsfeed, already collapsed) because of Trump.

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby Hikikomorist » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:32 pm

Any geographic regions that might be particularly un/safe?

srtabrawer

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby srtabrawer » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:38 pm

Pomeranian wrote:There tends to be a recession every 8 years or so no matter who is President. The economy has never gone straight up. We're overdue for one IMO.


Rumors are that there will be a recession soon and that it may be almost as bad as 2008. This is why I'm holding on to cash money bling waiting for the right time to invest....

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Wolfie91

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby Wolfie91 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:40 pm

jesus we have to talk about this already

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kalvano

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby kalvano » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:47 pm

Wolfie91 wrote:jesus we have to talk about this already


Anonymously, too!

avatarz

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby avatarz » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:49 pm

So - in his first 100 days Trump promised to freeze federal hiring with few exceptions (see here http://www.npr.org/2016/11/09/501451368 ... ent=202709)

I have no idea what this means for a potential offer at OCC or potential DOJ offer .... are those going to disappear in January?

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby Outis Onoma » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:00 pm

Will trumps hiring freeze apply to clerkships?

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby narfkarta » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:21 pm

I hope it changes this:

https://lawsalaries.blogspot.com/

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby JGMotorsport » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:36 pm

http://www.npr.org/2016/11/09/501451368 ... ent=202709

Here's his plan. . .

Doesn't seem too bad for the legal market outside of a federal hiring freeze. All of these "acts" will require lawyers. I see issues for those lawyers working in regulatory fields, and in torts (because Republicans hate Plaintiff's Side Torts Practice). Perhaps an uptick in Tax work due to an overhaul of the code, provided it doesn't actually simplify it.

Marijuana was just legalized in 4 states, medical was just legalized in 3 additional states. There are jobs there. Maybe not your big law jobs, but outside of this bubble, most of us aren't going to be in big law.

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby nunumaster » Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:36 pm

tag

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby Anonymous User » Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:44 pm

JGMotorsport wrote:http://www.npr.org/2016/11/09/501451368/here-is-what-donald-trump-wants-to-do-in-his-first-100-days?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=202709

Here's his plan. . .

Doesn't seem too bad for the legal market outside of a federal hiring freeze. All of these "acts" will require lawyers. I see issues for those lawyers working in regulatory fields, and in torts (because Republicans hate Plaintiff's Side Torts Practice). Perhaps an uptick in Tax work due to an overhaul of the code, provided it doesn't actually simplify it.

Marijuana was just legalized in 4 states, medical was just legalized in 3 additional states. There are jobs there. Maybe not your big law jobs, but outside of this bubble, most of us aren't going to be in big law.


That "plan" is horrifying.

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby dixiecupdrinking » Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:56 pm

kalvano wrote:I think the people panicking on here are panicking more because they are anti-Trump than anything else. Conservatives panicked when Obama was elected, and not a lot happened because of that.

Trump probably won't single-handedly cause the collapse of the (private sector) legal industry, but you're kidding yourself if you think the magnitude of uncertainty and potential upheaval with a Trump administration is remotely comparable to Obama.

Anyway: the most obviously impacted areas will be those that interface with the government. E.g., for all we know the SEC will cease to do any enforcement in January. If your firm does a lot of SEC investigations, well.

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby PMan99 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:00 pm

Hopefully people follow through on their threats to quit en masse if Trump is elected so it opens up all of the jobs for the rest of us.

Really, though, hard to say right now. Last time the Republicans held all the levers the gov't expanded massively. Things are a bit different now, but we'll see just how different.

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby Anonymous User » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:07 pm

Really regretting taking that Latham offer right about now.

BRB studying hard to maintain grades for 3L OCI.

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zot1

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby zot1 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:21 pm

Anonymous User wrote:Really regretting taking that Latham offer right about now.

BRB studying hard to maintain grades for 3L OCI.


Don't regret anything. The guessing game isn't helpful. This thread is intended for concrete facts. Nothing has come in yet so no need to sweat anything yet.

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby mvp99 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:22 pm

Pomeranian wrote:There tends to be a recession every 8 years or so no matter who is President. The economy has never gone straight up. We're overdue for one IMO.

Its also possible the economic hiccup of early 2016 is the cyclical low point of the economy and we're good for another 5-8 years

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby Anonymous User » Thu Nov 10, 2016 2:37 am

JGMotorsport wrote:http://www.npr.org/2016/11/09/501451368/here-is-what-donald-trump-wants-to-do-in-his-first-100-days?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=202709

Here's his plan. . .

Doesn't seem too bad for the legal market outside of a federal hiring freeze. All of these "acts" will require lawyers. I see issues for those lawyers working in regulatory fields, and in torts (because Republicans hate Plaintiff's Side Torts Practice). Perhaps an uptick in Tax work due to an overhaul of the code, provided it doesn't actually simplify it.

Marijuana was just legalized in 4 states, medical was just legalized in 3 additional states. There are jobs there. Maybe not your big law jobs, but outside of this bubble, most of us aren't going to be in big law.


reforms visa rules to enhance penalties for overstaying and to ensure open jobs are offered to American workers first.


International law students looking for work in the US are gonna take a massive hit

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unicorntamer666

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby unicorntamer666 » Thu Nov 10, 2016 2:37 am

Definitely not an expert on the broader legal market - but one thing I can say with relative certainty is that as more conservative judges are appointed, the tort system will shrink. In other words tort reform will regain momentum, fewer judges will certify class actions, more judges will grant motions to dismiss and for summary judgment, fewer cases will go to trial, resulting in fewer verdicts and smaller settlements. Depending on how far it goes it could be bad for both defense and plaintiffs firms in that area, but will likely hit plaintiffs personal injury firms hardest.

But some of those effects may take a few years to set in, and state courts could be partially immune (though states with judicial elections are already moving in that direction).

Does anyone know the answer to the question of how clerkships will be impacted?

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby A. Nony Mouse » Thu Nov 10, 2016 2:43 am

Anonymous User wrote:
reforms visa rules to enhance penalties for overstaying and to ensure open jobs are offered to American workers first.


International law students looking for work in the US are gonna take a massive hit

Not at all an expert so take this for what it's worth, but I think that job thing is just rhetoric. Open jobs are already supposed to go to domestic workers. Employers who want to hire foreigners have to go through certain hoops to prove that there aren't qualified American candidates (although I can't remember what kind of jobs fall in this category, I suspect it includes anything someone doing a JD at a top law school would realistically be applying for). My really vague understanding is that employers already know the magic words they have to say and what they have to submit to show that they need the foreign worker. If it's worth it to them to go through the process now, I doubt it's going to change much.

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby galeatus » Thu Nov 10, 2016 3:26 am

A. Nony Mouse wrote:
Anonymous User wrote:
reforms visa rules to enhance penalties for overstaying and to ensure open jobs are offered to American workers first.


International law students looking for work in the US are gonna take a massive hit

Not at all an expert so take this for what it's worth, but I think that job thing is just rhetoric. Open jobs are already supposed to go to domestic workers. Employers who want to hire foreigners have to go through certain hoops to prove that there aren't qualified American candidates (although I can't remember what kind of jobs fall in this category, I suspect it includes anything someone doing a JD at a top law school would realistically be applying for). My really vague understanding is that employers already know the magic words they have to say and what they have to submit to show that they need the foreign worker. If it's worth it to them to go through the process now, I doubt it's going to change much.


That's a fair point, but one of the other worries is about the H1B visa (the skilled worker visa) which Trump has been vocal against, with him raising the suggestion of even cancelling it altogether.

Did a little bit more googling into this and it seems that the hit wouldn't be as bad as I thought initially. H1B will likely stay (otherwise the entire Silicon Valley is gonna be up in arms), and the Trump administration can't do much apart from raising the minimum wage required for H1Bs, which will actually benefit foreign JDs going down the BigLaw route (but bad for those looking at PI work), as it will reduce the number of applicants and make it more likely for lawyers to get an H1B. So yeah you're right.

(Also I do apologise for accidentally posting anon..... :oops: )

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby Anonymous User » Thu Nov 10, 2016 8:15 am

Any thoughts on whether his plan to replace estate tax with either carryover basis or realization at death will go through, and if so how it will affect HNW estate planning?

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby Anonymous User » Thu Nov 10, 2016 11:48 am

unicorntamer666 wrote:Definitely not an expert on the broader legal market - but one thing I can say with relative certainty is that as more conservative judges are appointed, the tort system will shrink. In other words tort reform will regain momentum, fewer judges will certify class actions, more judges will grant motions to dismiss and for summary judgment, fewer cases will go to trial, resulting in fewer verdicts and smaller settlements. Depending on how far it goes it could be bad for both defense and plaintiffs firms in that area, but will likely hit plaintiffs personal injury firms hardest.

But some of those effects may take a few years to set in, and state courts could be partially immune (though states with judicial elections are already moving in that direction).

Does anyone know the answer to the question of how clerkships will be impacted?

Most tort work is in state courts. Trump shouldn't really affect that at all.

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby Anonymous User » Thu Nov 10, 2016 10:26 pm

Anonymous User wrote:Any thoughts on whether his plan to replace estate tax with either carryover basis or realization at death will go through, and if so how it will affect HNW estate planning?

As a T&E associate, I wonder about this too. I read an article today talking about all the possible permutations of his plan, and the general conclusion was that work is gonna go down.



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