How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

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zot1

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How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby zot1 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:52 am

Please post as soon as something happens (layoffs, offers revoked, etc.).

This is not for hypothetical situations, but I can't stop you from musing.

RaceJudicata

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby RaceJudicata » Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:05 am

Tagged, unfortunately

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby Anonymous User » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:49 pm

Might be a naive question, but what are some sequences of events that would trigger changes in legal job market under Trump presidency? I certainly understand his impact on government sector, but what about private sector?

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zot1

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby zot1 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:54 pm

Anonymous User wrote:Might be a naive question, but what are some sequences of events that would trigger changes in legal job market under Trump presidency? I certainly understand his impact on government sector, but what about private sector?


The uncertainty of the markets will make law firms nervous. Since you can't really plan, makes more sense to conservative and revoke or not extend offers. If market makes business worse (law firms not bringing in money), layoffs will be imminent. Baby associates are more likely to go first because who cares about them anyway.

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby jingosaur » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:00 pm

For private sector, some groups will do better and others will do worse. A lot of the worse off groups will have a couple years of legal work before things go sour. Law firm economics tend to lag the rest of the economy by a couple years so young associates and 3Ls should be fine for now. Everyone younger will just have to wait and see.

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Toni V

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby Toni V » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:11 pm

The new healthcare program (whatever it turns out to be) will result in an abundance of new work for firms emphasizing healthcare law.

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby Anonymous User » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:15 pm

How worried should 2ls with offers be at this point? (I'm going to a firm that no-offered during the last recession, but almost 100% since then)

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby Anonymous User » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:17 pm

Anonymous User wrote:How worried should 2ls with offers be at this point? (I'm going to a firm that no-offered during the last recession, but almost 100% since then)


Also extremely worried about this. Similar firm situation, 100% offers since recession but a ton of no offers during.

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby Anonymous User » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:21 pm

It is impossible to really tell what will happen. once he actually is president and we see how erratic or not erratic he is, then it will show. it is possible that he will be much more restrained now that he has actually won. Though it is also possible that he won't.

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby Pneumonia » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:23 pm

RaceJudicata wrote:Tagged, unfortunately

Gray

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.

Postby Gray » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:25 pm

.

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buckiguy_sucks

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby buckiguy_sucks » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:30 pm

looking for advice on getting into wall law on the ground floor please pm with advice

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby SeewhathappensLarry » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:35 pm

buckiguy_sucks wrote:looking for advice on getting into wall law on the ground floor please pm with advice


:lol: :lol: :lol: 270

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby RaceJudicata » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:35 pm

zot1 wrote:Please post as soon as something happens (layoffs, offers revoked, etc.).

This is not for hypothetical situations, but I can't stop you from musing.


It was worth a shot, Zot.

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby Blackfish » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:43 pm

.
Last edited by Blackfish on Sun Apr 16, 2017 4:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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A. Nony Mouse

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby A. Nony Mouse » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:44 pm

Blackfish wrote:isn't zot the guy who humblebrag posts about his fed govt. job that he got after striking out in getting biglaw in like almost every biglaw thread?

im sure the schadenfreude must be incredibly thrilling for the OP, but encouraging people to post fear-mongering shit when no one really knows wtf will happen is just helping this dude stroke his dick in front of a car wreck.

No, they didn't strike out, and don't do this.

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby Anonymous User » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:45 pm

In this state, would it be wiser to go straight into firm or take a clerkship position?

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby OMLS48 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:47 pm

Distraught as anyone else, but I'm looking for any silver linings. I'm the last person to pretend I understand and can predict the effect this'll have on the legal market, but it doesn't seem that the fair parallel to make is to assume that firms that are and have been 100% offer firms in recent years will revert back to no offering half their summer classes and/or layoffs. Considering that in 2008, the country (and the world at that) was in a financial crisis independent of the results of an election. I recognize that the subsequent decisions of a Trump administration may very well have egregious effects on the health of the American economy, but those effects ultimately wont have short term impacts that will trickle down to legal hiring, will they?

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zot1

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby zot1 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:51 pm

Blackfish wrote:isn't zot the guy who humblebrag posts about his fed govt. job that he got after striking out in getting biglaw in like almost every biglaw thread?

im sure the schadenfreude must be incredibly thrilling for the OP, but encouraging people to post fear-mongering shit when no one really knows wtf will happen is just helping this dude stroke his dick in front of a car wreck.


Blackfish,

I don't humblebrag about my government job. I have actually said in previous threads that government work isn't the heaven everyone seems to think it is. However, I have actively encouraged people to pursue government work if that's what they want.

I actually have many friends in biglaw and many friends currently in law school. I posted this thread because I am worried about everyone because truly I care about everyone.

if someone comes and posts about offers being withdrawn, it can help others with their decisions.

I have gone to the government threads and warned people about the situation.

If you think this is about fear mongering, that's cool, I can't nor do I want to try and change your mind.

But if news of shifts in the legal sphere will help law students and young attorneys make decisions about their future, then I'm all for it. And if that means I'll be insulted or mocked by you or others, I seriously don't give a shit if there's even a glimmer of hope that it will help someone.

Edit: now that the person I was responding to this read it, I've edited a part that outed me.
Last edited by zot1 on Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby Blackfish » Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:28 pm

zot1 wrote:
The uncertainty of the markets will make law firms nervous. Since you can't really plan, makes more sense to conservative and revoke or not extend offers. If market makes business worse (law firms not bringing in money), layoffs will be imminent. Baby associates are more likely to go first because who cares about them anyway.


this is the kind of pointless fear-mongering you're inciting here because you're just flat out wrong. even at the peak of law firm layoffs during the great recession, layoffs hit mid-level associates the hardest at the vast majority of firms.

Latham and White & Case are infamous today not just because they laid people off. almost every firm did. but none of the firms were so cruel as to layoff HUNDREDS of first-year associates whose biglaw legal careers ended just a few months into their jobs.

so, no, in the aggregate and based on previous history, "baby associates" are not likely the first to go. what you're doing here isn't some great public service offering "glimmer of hope" to 2Ls and 3Ls. you're talking out of your ass and creating unnecessary fear-mongering during a time where im sure most people are already scared to death.

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zot1

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby zot1 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:36 pm

Blackfish wrote:
zot1 wrote:
The uncertainty of the markets will make law firms nervous. Since you can't really plan, makes more sense to conservative and revoke or not extend offers. If market makes business worse (law firms not bringing in money), layoffs will be imminent. Baby associates are more likely to go first because who cares about them anyway.


this is the kind of pointless fear-mongering you're inciting here because you're just flat out wrong. even at the peak of law firm layoffs during the great recession, layoffs hit mid-level associates the hardest at the vast majority of firms.

Latham and White & Case are infamous today not just because they laid people off. almost every firm did. but none of the firms were so cruel as to layoff HUNDREDS of first-year associates whose biglaw legal careers ended just a few months into their jobs.

so, no, in the aggregate and based on previous history, "baby associates" are not likely the first to go. what you're doing here isn't some great public service offering "glimmer of hope" to 2Ls and 3Ls. you're talking out of your ass and creating unnecessary fear-mongering during a time where im sure most people are already scared to death.


Maybe why don't you read things in context? There are a lot of ifs in what I said, which implies, oh well what do you know, that nothing might happen.

I think you're wrong that junior associates are not at risk. In the 2008 recession many juniors were gone. You can likely find threads about that here if you look for it.

But I didn't want hypotheticals for this precise reason. I want people to report real things. But if you really think me this big awful person, there's seriously nothing I can do about it.

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby King Cayuga » Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:41 pm

Haven't firms been more conservative with their hiring since the Recession? My understanding from talking with people at my firm last summer was that there was a major hiring binge in the mid 2000's because firms expected a ton of work in the years that turned out to be terrible due to the recession, which led to major layoffs and offer revocations. I would imagine that there is less fat to trim this time around.

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A. Nony Mouse

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby A. Nony Mouse » Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:44 pm

In the recession there were a lot of offers deferred or rescinded altogether, and that's been felt in the hot market for mid-level laterals, because that class of folks was a lot smaller than usual. So while midlevels got hit too, I don't think you're quite correct, Blackfish.

I'm not saying anyone is about to get laid off or have their offers rescinded - I agree that it will require actually having another recession hit, which we don't know yet. But in the past recession firms absolutely did screw over new associates.

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kalvano

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby kalvano » Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:45 pm

I think the people panicking on here are panicking more because they are anti-Trump than anything else. Conservatives panicked when Obama was elected, and not a lot happened because of that.

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Pomeranian

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Re: How does a Trump Presidency affect legal jobs?

Postby Pomeranian » Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:47 pm

There tends to be a recession every 8 years or so no matter who is President. The economy has never gone straight up. We're overdue for one IMO.



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