Recession?

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Recession?

Postby Anonymous User » Mon Oct 10, 2016 12:51 pm

The firm I'm going to for my 2L summer is pretty much 100% offer, but they did have a few no offers during the recession. After talking with recruiting, I came to the understanding that a full-time offer would be pretty much guaranteed, so long as the economy didn't tank or something crazy like that.

My understanding of the economy/stock markets/etc is very limited, so I was just curious how long in advance is it possible to know if a recession is coming? I understand that most answers are just speculation and that none of us are economists, but is the current economy looking good for the next year or so at least?

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Vursz

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Re: Recession?

Postby Vursz » Mon Oct 10, 2016 1:07 pm

I would prioritize doing a good job and being social over worrying about the future state of the economy. You have no control over future recessions; you have control over how you present yourself and the quality of work you produce.

Borhas

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Re: Recession?

Postby Borhas » Mon Oct 10, 2016 1:52 pm

Anonymous User wrote:The firm I'm going to for my 2L summer is pretty much 100% offer, but they did have a few no offers during the recession. After talking with recruiting, I came to the understanding that a full-time offer would be pretty much guaranteed, so long as the economy didn't tank or something crazy like that.

My understanding of the economy/stock markets/etc is very limited, so I was just curious how long in advance is it possible to know if a recession is coming? I understand that most answers are just speculation and that none of us are economists, but is the current economy looking good for the next year or so at least?


No recession in 2017-2018 fiscal year

Only big wild card I see is Chinese economy so keep an eye on that I guess. The Middle East is in turmoil but oil prices won't go back above $60-70 due to Canadian and American oil shale discoveries.
Last edited by Borhas on Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.

mvp99

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Re: Recession?

Postby mvp99 » Mon Oct 10, 2016 2:55 pm

if you can predict a recession then short the market and become a millionaire in a year or two

haus

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Re: Recession?

Postby haus » Mon Oct 10, 2016 3:02 pm

mvp99 wrote:if you can predict a recession then short the market and become a millionaire in a year or two

Although this is a lot easier to pull off if you are sitting a big pile of cash to begin with (not the case for many students).

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Re: Recession?

Postby Nebby » Mon Oct 10, 2016 3:28 pm

Anonymous User wrote:The firm I'm going to for my 2L summer is pretty much 100% offer, but they did have a few no offers during the recession. After talking with recruiting, I came to the understanding that a full-time offer would be pretty much guaranteed, so long as the economy didn't tank or something crazy like that.

My understanding of the economy/stock markets/etc is very limited, so I was just curious how long in advance is it possible to know if a recession is coming? I understand that most answers are just speculation and that none of us are economists, but is the current economy looking good for the next year or so at least?

(no offered for wearing Oxfords on a boat)

Peck.173

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Re: Recession?

Postby Peck.173 » Mon Oct 10, 2016 3:50 pm

Nebby wrote:
Anonymous User wrote:The firm I'm going to for my 2L summer is pretty much 100% offer, but they did have a few no offers during the recession. After talking with recruiting, I came to the understanding that a full-time offer would be pretty much guaranteed, so long as the economy didn't tank or something crazy like that.

My understanding of the economy/stock markets/etc is very limited, so I was just curious how long in advance is it possible to know if a recession is coming? I understand that most answers are just speculation and that none of us are economists, but is the current economy looking good for the next year or so at least?

(no offered for wearing Oxfords on a boat)


Don't believe it's particularly hyperbolic to say that the Wall Street freakout that would coincide w/a Trump election as President could be a bit of an issue.

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Big Red

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Re: Recession?

Postby Big Red » Mon Oct 10, 2016 4:34 pm

call your congresswoman

what exactly is the move if you find out there's a recession incoming? Short everything and buy gold? Break into the fed and raise the interest rate?

mvp99

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Re: Recession?

Postby mvp99 » Mon Oct 10, 2016 4:43 pm

haus wrote:
mvp99 wrote:if you can predict a recession then short the market and become a millionaire in a year or two

Although this is a lot easier to pull off if you are sitting a big pile of cash to begin with (not the case for many students).

I was being a bit sarcastic.. i really dont think many people can predict when the next recession will happen.. what if q1 this year was the cyclical "contraction" and we're good for another 7 years

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BaiAilian2013

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Re: Recession?

Postby BaiAilian2013 » Mon Oct 10, 2016 5:03 pm

There's nothing you can do about it either way. However, what you should try to do is plug yourself into financial current events a little better, just because those are the issues that matter to your clients and it's not good to be ignorant about the world they live in.

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FuturePaulClement

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Re: Recession?

Postby FuturePaulClement » Tue Oct 11, 2016 12:54 am

My wealthy father has connections to Wall Street. He has rented a mountain retreat in Switzerland in preparation for the inevitable student loan crisis and collapse of the U.S. economy. I'll be sure to PM you if I hear anything.

TragicBronson

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Re: Recession?

Postby TragicBronson » Tue Oct 11, 2016 1:12 am

All conjecture obviously but most experts agree one is imminent although the timetable is harder to predict. 1-1.5 years out is what most are saying.

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KMart

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Re: Recession?

Postby KMart » Tue Oct 11, 2016 1:35 am

Peck.173 wrote:Don't believe it's particularly hyperbolic to say that the Wall Street freakout that would coincide w/a Trump election as President could be a bit of an issue.

This is flame: we said this about Brexit and it normalized after a month. The truth is we really don't know what's going to happen in the future and if we did we wouldn't share it because we'd short the market and make a killing.

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bearsfan23

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Re: Recession?

Postby bearsfan23 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 2:37 am

A recession is near.

Invest in bitcoin now

dixiecupdrinking

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Re: Recession?

Postby dixiecupdrinking » Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:31 am

TragicBronson wrote:All conjecture obviously but most experts agree one is imminent although the timetable is harder to predict. 1-1.5 years out is what most are saying.

A recession is always imminent for some value of "imminent."

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Re: Recession?

Postby immalawyer » Tue Oct 11, 2016 10:03 am

I know this doesn't actually answer your question, but what would be the plan if someone could tell you 100% there will be a recession? If there is a recession, I think most firms would have a hiccup in their 100% offer policy - a recession is a recession no matter where you go.

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Re: Recession?

Postby Anonymous User » Tue Oct 11, 2016 10:22 am

TragicBronson wrote:All conjecture obviously but most experts agree one is imminent although the timetable is harder to predict. 1-1.5 years out is what most are saying.

Nope.

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nealric

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Re: Recession?

Postby nealric » Tue Oct 11, 2016 2:35 pm

Anonymous User wrote:The firm I'm going to for my 2L summer is pretty much 100% offer, but they did have a few no offers during the recession. After talking with recruiting, I came to the understanding that a full-time offer would be pretty much guaranteed, so long as the economy didn't tank or something crazy like that.

My understanding of the economy/stock markets/etc is very limited, so I was just curious how long in advance is it possible to know if a recession is coming? I understand that most answers are just speculation and that none of us are economists, but is the current economy looking good for the next year or so at least?


It is not possible to know if a recession has even occurred until the economy has already been in recession for two consecutive quarters. Nobody can predict a recession- not even one day in advance. If you could predict a recession, you could make your fortune on Wall Street and wouldn't need to work as a lawyer.

Of course, that won't stop people from trying. You will hear all kinds of predictions from all corners. Just remember that those predictions are only marginally more scientific than tarot cards. I was in the first summer associate class after the financial crisis hit. Nobody saw it coming in OCI season- there was just minor unease about Bear Stearns. My firm was 50% no-offers after having close to 100% offers for the prior 5 years.

All you can do is put your head down, work hard, and present your best face. Don't be the person who slacks off all summer because everyone receives offers.

cjw564

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Re: Recession?

Postby cjw564 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 3:40 pm

If you can predict economic crisis, you should put all your money in the stock market and wait for the windfall - being a lawyer would be a huge waste of your time. Otherwise, it is pointless to worry about such.

RaceJudicata

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Re: Recession?

Postby RaceJudicata » Tue Oct 11, 2016 4:20 pm

cjw564 wrote:If you can predict economic crisis, you should put all your money in the stock market and wait for the windfall - being a lawyer would be a huge waste of your time. Otherwise, it is pointless to worry about such.


Yup, all the broke 2L's of the world are going to short the market and get rich! (Even if deadly accurate, the 5-10k investments won't exactly reap a life changing windfall).

johndhi

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Re: Recession?

Postby johndhi » Wed Oct 12, 2016 3:55 pm

RaceJudicata wrote:
cjw564 wrote:If you can predict economic crisis, you should put all your money in the stock market and wait for the windfall - being a lawyer would be a huge waste of your time. Otherwise, it is pointless to worry about such.


Yup, all the broke 2L's of the world are going to short the market and get rich! (Even if deadly accurate, the 5-10k investments won't exactly reap a life changing windfall).


I don't even know why I'm arguing about this, but if you really knew what was going to happen, you could certainly invest on leverage and get rich as fuck.



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