Biglaw Salaries going up?

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cookiejar1
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby cookiejar1 » Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:19 pm

Anonymous User wrote:In my opinion, associate compensation will rise. It's just a matter of how soon, and which firms will be able to afford to match the first-movers.


NYC TO 190K IN 2016

TTTooKewl
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby TTTooKewl » Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:19 pm

SplitMyPants wrote:
masque du pantsu wrote:I've long been skeptical, but i'm starting to think people might be on to something, maybe even within the next few years. See below:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... -this-year

Whether or not you agree with the article's recommendations, check out the numbers for point #3: at some point the big law firms will face (or feel that they are facing) a talent crunch.


Who the hell chooses a bar chart with a 120-160 scale to show average LSAT scores through time?


lol. That chart is absurdly uninformative in its presentation

capsfan
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby capsfan » Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:19 pm

Is it really true that there's no challenge in keeping Mid-Levels? It seems to me that when you compare the DPW bonus scale to the initial STB scale that Mid-Levels are exactly where the challenge is for firms. The costs of beating STB for first year bonuses would have been minimal for DPW, but DPW chose to focus on increasing mid-level comp. Maybe this purely a lateral competition issue and not really a concern about losing people to in-house.

I'm surprised that no one else (at least that I noticed) has predicted that we might see 3rd year and associate salaries go up with no real change in 1st year salaries, or perhaps an almost nominal bump of 5k. This is relatively blind speculation but seems reasonable based on what we saw with bonuses.

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Big Shrimpin
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby Big Shrimpin » Thu Apr 23, 2015 4:42 pm

capsfan wrote:Is it really true that there's no challenge in keeping Mid-Levels? It seems to me that when you compare the DPW bonus scale to the initial STB scale that Mid-Levels are exactly where the challenge is for firms. The costs of beating STB for first year bonuses would have been minimal for DPW, but DPW chose to focus on increasing mid-level comp. Maybe this purely a lateral competition issue and not really a concern about losing people to in-house.

I'm surprised that no one else (at least that I noticed) has predicted that we might see 3rd year and associate salaries go up with no real change in 1st year salaries, or perhaps an almost nominal bump of 5k. This is relatively blind speculation but seems reasonable based on what we saw with bonuses.


midlevel here

salaries ain't going up

maybe bonuses, but not salaries

salary expansion was an early 2000s arms race that'll never happen again

now competing for talent with bonuses, that's a more plausible and practical scenario for firms, since they can make adjustments up or down each year based upon the market, their peers, their performance, etc

0Ls, erase from your mind the poss of across the board salary increases

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JohannDeMann
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby JohannDeMann » Thu Apr 23, 2015 5:01 pm

would be cool to chart avg billables per year to salary. per hour pay for big lawyers going down?

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Big Shrimpin
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby Big Shrimpin » Thu Apr 23, 2015 5:05 pm

JohannDeMann wrote:would be cool to chart avg billables per year to salary. per hour pay for big lawyers going down?


always going down

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cookiejar1
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby cookiejar1 » Thu Apr 23, 2015 5:06 pm

Big Shrimpin wrote:midlevel here

salaries ain't going up

maybe bonuses, but not salaries


NYC FIRST YEAR BONUSES TO 30K!

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Big Shrimpin
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby Big Shrimpin » Thu Apr 23, 2015 5:12 pm

cookiejar1 wrote:
Big Shrimpin wrote:midlevel here

salaries ain't going up

maybe bonuses, but not salaries


NYC FIRST YEAR BONUSES TO 30K!


i could see this

but more likely that midlevels/seniors see a greater % bump

oh, to have been a part of the boom days in mid 2000s :-(

TTTooKewl
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby TTTooKewl » Thu Apr 23, 2015 5:41 pm

Big Shrimpin wrote:
capsfan wrote:Is it really true that there's no challenge in keeping Mid-Levels? It seems to me that when you compare the DPW bonus scale to the initial STB scale that Mid-Levels are exactly where the challenge is for firms. The costs of beating STB for first year bonuses would have been minimal for DPW, but DPW chose to focus on increasing mid-level comp. Maybe this purely a lateral competition issue and not really a concern about losing people to in-house.

I'm surprised that no one else (at least that I noticed) has predicted that we might see 3rd year and associate salaries go up with no real change in 1st year salaries, or perhaps an almost nominal bump of 5k. This is relatively blind speculation but seems reasonable based on what we saw with bonuses.


midlevel here

salaries ain't going up

maybe bonuses, but not salaries

salary expansion was an early 2000s arms race that'll never happen again

now competing for talent with bonuses, that's a more plausible and practical scenario for firms, since they can make adjustments up or down each year based upon the market, their peers, their performance, etc

0Ls, erase from your mind the poss of across the board salary increases



I mean.. salaries will go up, because that's what salaries do over time. Whether salary increases will fail to keep up with inflation / economic growth is an argument we can have. Right now, associate salaries are not keeping up with inflation / economic growth. Whether they ever keep up again is an argument we can have. But, assuming the economy continues to grow, salaries will go up from their nominal level. Just a matter of when. 8 years is a long time without a bump. It could be another 8 years, though that seems unreasonable.

Edit: By salary, I mean compensation. You are right that increases might come in the form of bonuses.

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FSK
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby FSK » Thu Apr 23, 2015 5:44 pm

Less firms pay market in DC than they did 5 years ago. That should be telling.

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Desert Fox
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby Desert Fox » Thu Apr 23, 2015 5:49 pm

flawschoolkid wrote:Less firms pay market in DC than they did 5 years ago. That should be telling.


including boneus or just salary? which firms dropped belo0w 160

TTTooKewl
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby TTTooKewl » Thu Apr 23, 2015 5:49 pm

flawschoolkid wrote:Less firms pay market in DC than they did 5 years ago. That should be telling.


Less firms, or a lesser % of firms? It's my understanding that the reduction in the percentage of firms paying market in secondary markets is a product of smaller firms getting bigger rather than the market-paying firms reducing salary.

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Big Shrimpin
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby Big Shrimpin » Thu Apr 23, 2015 5:51 pm

PPP putting downward wage pressure on associate comp

seems legit?

ir8 @ boomers

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FSK
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby FSK » Thu Apr 23, 2015 5:56 pm

Desert Fox wrote:
flawschoolkid wrote:Less firms pay market in DC than they did 5 years ago. That should be telling.


including boneus or just salary? which firms dropped belo0w 160

http://abovethelaw.com/2014/10/ny-to-19 ... -the-norm/

whatever this scribbling says.

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Monochromatic Oeuvre
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby Monochromatic Oeuvre » Thu Apr 23, 2015 6:20 pm

TTTooKewl wrote:
flawschoolkid wrote:Less firms pay market in DC than they did 5 years ago. That should be telling.


Less firms, or a lesser % of firms? It's my understanding that the reduction in the percentage of firms paying market in secondary markets is a product of smaller firms getting bigger rather than the market-paying firms reducing salary.


TITCR. No one reduced salaries; shitfirms just grew. The lower percentage of 251+ firms paying market doesn't mean any firm that previously paid market now isn't, it means that the size of a firm is no longer as good an indicator of who's paying market as it once was.

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Monochromatic Oeuvre
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby Monochromatic Oeuvre » Thu Apr 23, 2015 6:53 pm

Also, never forget that in 2000, juniors made $165k total comp when law school tuition was $25k and NYC studios were $1k/month. That's $225k in today's dollars. Juniors will NEVER make that again.

It gets worse the further down the line you go. Partners are shattering profitability records. Senior associates are now doing better than every year before with the exception of 2007. Midlevels aren't breaking records but are doing above-average relative to the past 15 years.

And juniors? In terms of real compensation, the past two years were THE two worst of the previous 15. Real compensation dropped over 20% for first years from 2000 as average student loan debt (which affects juniors disproportionately) doubled.

We're getting to the point where law school is a bad financial decision even for those who would have a near-assured chance of getting Biglaw. And law school enrollment, especially among the high performers, will continue to drop until something gets fixed.

Anonymous User
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby Anonymous User » Thu Apr 23, 2015 6:57 pm

Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:Also, never forget that in 2000, juniors made $165k total comp when law school tuition was $25k and NYC studios were $1k/month. That's $225k in today's dollars. Juniors will NEVER make that again.

It gets worse the further down the line you go. Partners are shattering profitability records. Senior associates are now doing better than every year before with the exception of 2007. Midlevels aren't breaking records but are doing above-average relative to the past 15 years.

And juniors? In terms of real compensation, the past two years were THE two worst of the previous 15. Real compensation dropped over 20% for first years from 2000 as average student loan debt (which affects juniors disproportionately) doubled.

We're getting to the point where law school is a bad financial decision even for those who would have a near-assured chance of getting Biglaw. And law school enrollment, especially among the high performers, will continue to drop until something gets fixed.


Does this potentially indicate that it makes sense to start as a junior in non-NY and then attempt to lateral into NY as a 2nd/3rd year? Put in 2-4 years in NY then leave again assuming partnership isn't in the cards?

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Monochromatic Oeuvre
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby Monochromatic Oeuvre » Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:01 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:Also, never forget that in 2000, juniors made $165k total comp when law school tuition was $25k and NYC studios were $1k/month. That's $225k in today's dollars. Juniors will NEVER make that again.

It gets worse the further down the line you go. Partners are shattering profitability records. Senior associates are now doing better than every year before with the exception of 2007. Midlevels aren't breaking records but are doing above-average relative to the past 15 years.

And juniors? In terms of real compensation, the past two years were THE two worst of the previous 15. Real compensation dropped over 20% for first years from 2000 as average student loan debt (which affects juniors disproportionately) doubled.

We're getting to the point where law school is a bad financial decision even for those who would have a near-assured chance of getting Biglaw. And law school enrollment, especially among the high performers, will continue to drop until something gets fixed.


Does this potentially indicate that it makes sense to start as a junior in non-NY and then attempt to lateral into NY as a 2nd/3rd year? Put in 2-4 years in NY then leave again assuming partnership isn't in the cards?


I don't know why someone would ever bother with NYC if they didn't have to. If you can get non-NYC Biglaw, just stick with that.

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JohannDeMann
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby JohannDeMann » Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:10 pm

Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:
We're getting to the point where law school is a bad financial decision even for those who would have a near-assured chance of getting Biglaw. And law school enrollment, especially among the high performers, will continue to drop until something gets fixed.


I don't know why someone would ever bother with NYC if they didn't have to. If you can get non-NYC Biglaw, just stick with that.


Ya, agree. for people with other options besides law, I wouldn't get into law. For those with other options besides NYC, I wouldn't do NYC.

ArealMitch
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby ArealMitch » Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:16 pm

TTTooKewl wrote:
Big Shrimpin wrote:
capsfan wrote:Is it really true that there's no challenge in keeping Mid-Levels? It seems to me that when you compare the DPW bonus scale to the initial STB scale that Mid-Levels are exactly where the challenge is for firms. The costs of beating STB for first year bonuses would have been minimal for DPW, but DPW chose to focus on increasing mid-level comp. Maybe this purely a lateral competition issue and not really a concern about losing people to in-house.

I'm surprised that no one else (at least that I noticed) has predicted that we might see 3rd year and associate salaries go up with no real change in 1st year salaries, or perhaps an almost nominal bump of 5k. This is relatively blind speculation but seems reasonable based on what we saw with bonuses.


midlevel here

salaries ain't going up

maybe bonuses, but not salaries

salary expansion was an early 2000s arms race that'll never happen again

now competing for talent with bonuses, that's a more plausible and practical scenario for firms, since they can make adjustments up or down each year based upon the market, their peers, their performance, etc

0Ls, erase from your mind the poss of across the board salary increases



I mean.. salaries will go up, because that's what salaries do over time. Whether salary increases will fail to keep up with inflation / economic growth is an argument we can have. Right now, associate salaries are not keeping up with inflation / economic growth. Whether they ever keep up again is an argument we can have. But, assuming the economy continues to grow, salaries will go up from their nominal level. Just a matter of when. 8 years is a long time without a bump. It could be another 8 years, though that seems unreasonable.

Edit: By salary, I mean compensation. You are right that increases might come in the form of bonuses.


Right. It's pretty much like a physical truth that salaries will rise eventually. It's a question of when. To say the salary will never increase again is obviously absurd, but if it will happen in any time frame where it warrants discussion or thinking about is another question. Like the sun going out.

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ExBiglawAssociate
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby ExBiglawAssociate » Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:25 pm

"Salaries will continue to go down in real dollars until morale improves." -Boomer managing partner

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ExBiglawAssociate
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby ExBiglawAssociate » Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:27 pm

Salaries are never going to go up simultaneously across all biglaw firms like they did during the 2000s. From now on, I think the tippy top firms are going to continue distinguishing themselves more and more from the rest of biglaw when it comes to total comp. There will be a sliding scale of salary increases (or lack thereof) with the crappier firms giving only very small or non-existent salary increases.

BigZuck
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby BigZuck » Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:31 pm

Every time this thread gets bumped I think it's because NYC to 190K has finally been confirmed for reals

But then I click on it and it's just another Mono post

:cry:

Mal Reynolds
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby Mal Reynolds » Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:34 pm

I don't really care about salaries I just don't want the economy to tank in the next 2-3 years.

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JohannDeMann
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Re: Biglaw Salaries going up?

Postby JohannDeMann » Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:36 pm

BigZuck wrote:Every time this thread gets bumped I think it's because NYC to 190K has finally been confirmed for reals

But then I click on it and it's just another Mono post

:cry:


we're just preparing you law students for the law firm world. anticipations are never satisfied - there are only lesser degrees of failing to live up to the hype.




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