NALP Report on 2013 Recruiting Season

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Robespierre
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NALP Report on 2013 Recruiting Season

Postby Robespierre » Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:19 am

I'm sure this has been posted somewhere already, but anyway, here's the new NALP report on Fall 2013 recruiting and 2013 summer programs:

http://www.nalp.org/uploads/Perspective ... ec2013.pdf

TopTopham
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Re: NALP Report on 2013 Recruiting Season

Postby TopTopham » Fri Feb 21, 2014 10:37 am

if you look at the mean averages rather than the medians - which i think you should - these figures show a healthy improvement over the previous year

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A. Nony Mouse
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Re: NALP Report on 2013 Recruiting Season

Postby A. Nony Mouse » Fri Feb 21, 2014 10:41 am

TopTopham wrote:if you look at the mean averages rather than the medians - which i think you should - these figures show a healthy improvement over the previous year

Despite the headline that says "Entry-level Law Firm Recruiting Remains Mostly Flat"?

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patogordo
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Re: NALP Report on 2013 Recruiting Season

Postby patogordo » Fri Feb 21, 2014 10:43 am

A. Nony Mouse wrote:
TopTopham wrote:if you look at the mean averages rather than the medians - which i think you should - these figures show a healthy improvement over the previous year

Despite the headline that says "Entry-level Law Firm Recruiting Remains Mostly Flat"?

and the fact that the increase was due to a few firms with large summer classes expanding slightly and not a change in the overall market?

man, some people can see an empty glass as half-full.

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patogordo
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Re: NALP Report on 2013 Recruiting Season

Postby patogordo » Fri Feb 21, 2014 10:46 am

also the overall number of offers dropped by 3.8%. so the increase in average class size might well be caused by firms closing up summer programs entirely. lol.

TopTopham
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Re: NALP Report on 2013 Recruiting Season

Postby TopTopham » Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:39 am

the headline means nothing; that's just spin. it's the data that counts.

i agree that "the increase was due to a few firms with large summer classes expanding slightly and not a change in the overall market". but still, if those few firms have more SA jobs to offer, that's a good thing. in other words, if all the job growth is at Skadden, well, i'll go to Skadden, if that what it takes to make 160K.

where do you see that the number of offers was down 3.8%?

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patogordo
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Re: NALP Report on 2013 Recruiting Season

Postby patogordo » Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:49 am

TopTopham wrote:the headline means nothing; that's just spin. it's the data that counts.

i agree that "the increase was due to a few firms with large summer classes expanding slightly and not a change in the overall market". but still, if those few firms have more SA jobs to offer, that's a good thing. in other words, if all the job growth is at Skadden, well, i'll go to Skadden, if that what it takes to make 160K.

where do you see that the number of offers was down 3.8%?

last page

and lol at "just do skadden bro" top-notch flame.

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A. Nony Mouse
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Re: NALP Report on 2013 Recruiting Season

Postby A. Nony Mouse » Fri Feb 21, 2014 4:08 pm

TopTopham wrote:the headline means nothing; that's just spin. it's the data that counts.

i agree that "the increase was due to a few firms with large summer classes expanding slightly and not a change in the overall market". but still, if those few firms have more SA jobs to offer, that's a good thing. in other words, if all the job growth is at Skadden, well, i'll go to Skadden, if that what it takes to make 160K.

where do you see that the number of offers was down 3.8%?

And you're going to be the only applicant who's going to have this "I'll go to Skadden" strategy? Where do you think everyone else is going to be applying?

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OneMoreLawHopeful
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Re: NALP Report on 2013 Recruiting Season

Postby OneMoreLawHopeful » Fri Feb 21, 2014 4:50 pm

patogordo wrote:
A. Nony Mouse wrote:
TopTopham wrote:if you look at the mean averages rather than the medians - which i think you should - these figures show a healthy improvement over the previous year

Despite the headline that says "Entry-level Law Firm Recruiting Remains Mostly Flat"?

and the fact that the increase was due to a few firms with large summer classes expanding slightly and not a change in the overall market?

man, some people can see an empty glass as half-full.


I don't think the NALP report is cause for rejoicing, but this reply is a total math fail.

The median number of offers stayed at 8, but the mean jumped from 20 to 27. This is a huge increase. Now, the median didn't move, so the entire shift had to take place at above-median firms, hence the report stating "the growth that is happening seems to be happening at some of the firms with larger summer programs."

But in order to get a huge jump like that, you either need (1) a large number of firms increasing offers by a small amount, or (2) a small number of firms increasing offers by a large amount.

This isn't cause for joy, because the overall market remained flat (there weren't across the board gains), but to claim that an increase in the mean of over 33% can be explained by a small increase in a small number of firms is just plain incorrect.

In fact, if you compare firms of 701+ attorneys, we see a HUGE jump in the number of offers between 2012 and 2013:
2012 Median = 54, Mean = 101 (http://www.nalp.org/uploads/Perspective ... uiting.pdf)
2013 Median = 111, Mean = 155 (http://www.nalp.org/uploads/Perspective ... ec2013.pdf)

Now, granted, the 701+ category is comparatively small. According to the NLJ, there could be at most 55 firms in this category (I say "at most" because not all NLJ350 firms are NALP firms, so it's likely the number is smaller than 55).

The total hiring environment is still bad, we're not anything close to 1-opening-per-graduate. But that doesn't mean that the increases in SA size have been small either. The increases have actually been very large, but limited to the largest firms.

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patogordo
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Re: NALP Report on 2013 Recruiting Season

Postby patogordo » Fri Feb 21, 2014 4:54 pm

OneMoreLawHopeful wrote:I don't think the NALP report is cause for rejoicing, but this reply is a total math fail.

The median number of offers stayed at 8, but the mean jumped from 20 to 27. This is a huge increase. Now, the median didn't move, so the entire shift had to take place at above-median firms, hence the report stating "the growth that is happening seems to be happening at some of the firms with larger summer programs."

But in order to get a huge jump like that, you either need (1) a large number of firms increasing offers by a small amount, or (2) a small number of firms increasing offers by a large amount.

This isn't cause for joy, because the overall market remained flat (there weren't across the board gains), but to claim that an increase in the mean of over 33% can be explained by a small increase in a small number of firms is just plain incorrect.

In fact, if you compare firms of 701+ attorneys, we see a HUGE jump in the number of offers between 2012 and 2013:
2012 Median = 54, Mean = 101 (http://www.nalp.org/uploads/Perspective ... uiting.pdf)
2013 Median = 111, Mean = 155 (http://www.nalp.org/uploads/Perspective ... ec2013.pdf)

Now, granted, the 701+ category is comparatively small. According to the NLJ, there could be at most 55 firms in this category (I say "at most" because not all NLJ350 firms are NALP firms, so it's likely the number is smaller than 55).

The total hiring environment is still bad, we're not anything close to 1-opening-per-graduate. But that doesn't mean that the increases in SA size have been small either. The increases have actually been very large, but limited to the largest firms.

except they only report median/mean class sizes for firms that report summer classes to NALP two years in a row, so there's survivorship bias. read the fine print. total SA hiring decreased ~4% last year.

there are also way fewer than 55 firms with 701+ attorneys. nor is the set of 701+ attorney firms static from year to year.

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Re: NALP Report on 2013 Recruiting Season

Postby Anonymous User » Fri Feb 21, 2014 9:09 pm

patogordo wrote:except they only report median/mean class sizes for firms that report summer classes to NALP two years in a row, so there's survivorship bias. read the fine print. total SA hiring decreased ~4% last year.

there are also way fewer than 55 firms with 701+ attorneys. nor is the set of 701+ attorney firms static from year to year.


You are making three separate assumptions here, with no citations to back them up:

(1) That a significant number of firms failed to report summer classes two years in a row. Do you have numbers to back this?

(2) That the 4% decrease in hiring applies to larger firms as well as small, in seeming contravention of NALP's published numbers. Do you have a source to back this up?

(3) That the number of firms with 701+ attorneys is "way fewer" than the 55 reported in the NLJ350. Do you have a source to back this up?

It seems like you like to accuse others of not "reading the fine print" when you haven't read so much of it yourself.

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patogordo
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Re: NALP Report on 2013 Recruiting Season

Postby patogordo » Fri Feb 21, 2014 9:16 pm

average class size went up yet the total number of summers hired decreased by 3.8%. average = total summers / total summer classes. if the average went up and the numerator went down.......

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OneMoreLawHopeful
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Re: NALP Report on 2013 Recruiting Season

Postby OneMoreLawHopeful » Fri Feb 21, 2014 9:30 pm

patogordo wrote:average class size went up yet the total number of summers hired decreased by 3.8%. average = total summers / total summer classes. if the average went up and the numerator went down.......


Right, but that's the total, which is unrelated to your original claim. Your claim was:

patogordo wrote:the increase was due to a few firms with large summer classes expanding slightly and not a change in the overall market


Yet, as demonstrated by the graphs in the NALP report, more than a "few" firms (potentially up to 55 according to the NLJ350) increased their class sizes significantly more than "slighty" (median shift from 54 to 111 according to the NALP report).

Short of you providing some citations, it seems clear that your claim is wrong.

As for the total, I've never disagreed, note that just a few posts above I stated:
OneMoreLawHopeful wrote:The total hiring environment is still bad

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patogordo
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Re: NALP Report on 2013 Recruiting Season

Postby patogordo » Fri Feb 21, 2014 9:33 pm

my first "claim" was paraphrased directly from the report. maybe it's not true, i dunno, it's just NALP's editorialization but then again they do have all the data. but then i read the whole thing and realized it was even worse than that.




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