Old Gregg wrote:
I think johanndumbass is being a little optimistic here:
Also, everyone our age irrationally is going to fear a collapsed economy because we experienced that shit in 2008. The facts are things are going very well right now and law firms have hired conservatively during this period (because of 2008) instead of speculatively like in 2006.
I agree that an economic collapse of the kind we saw in 2008 is truly remarkable and singular, and unlikely to occur again in our careers, but recessions can and do recur on a regular basis. And the intervals between them suggest that we're due for another one.
But doubtful that such a recession will lead to the degree of job loss in the legal sector that the last one lead to. Law, as a field, is typically preferably to banking because of job stability. Our jobs tend to be resilient even in the face of tough economies.
But it is still possible and likely that there will be layoffs in some form in the next recession. And you shouldn't lose touch of the lessons you learned in the previous recessions. A bunch of firms have already been laying off associates left and right, and we're not even technically in a recession right now. I appreciate johanndumbass's estimation that law firms are hiring conservatively, but the results simply haven't been bearing this out. Hiring has definitely decreased, but law firms are still massively leveraged.
-it is mid-2007
-johnn is first year
-four year bull run and S&P500 bouncing around 1500 -- these things last 10-20 years (90s, duh)
-only illiterates pay down debt
-gotta cop dat sweet 12% GUARANTEED cagr equity return
-it is 2009
-johnn taxable brokerage acct is shark week, every week
-loan balance is 95% of mid-2007 balance
-johnn: i've never heard of sharpe ratios but i'm an investment masterman
also, lol at having debt and investing being a "diversification strategy" -- it's called leverage, lil johann breh. also, if an investment lies above the security market line, YOU MAKE THAT INVESTMENT. capm 101. paying down student loans at any rate above 3% is well, well above the sml. qed.