2013 & 2014 are "years of anxiety" for Biglaw

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wert3813
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Re: 2013 & 2014 are "years of anxiety" for Biglaw

Postby wert3813 » Fri May 24, 2013 4:57 pm

RELIC wrote:
Anonymous User wrote:The firm I am at (energy-related) is hiring like mad. Certain sectors are going to be booming and certain sectors are going to not be booming.

I can't wait till fusion or some other form of renewable energy is invented and places like Houston start to resemble Detroit.

This may have been a part joke but look what were saying is true for every field. At various times in history being in them was a brilliant idea (aerospace engineering in the 60s, but there are a million examples) and at others it mean't disaster. There's some luck involved.

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RELIC
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Re: 2013 & 2014 are "years of anxiety" for Biglaw

Postby RELIC » Fri May 24, 2013 5:00 pm

wert3813 wrote:
RELIC wrote:
Anonymous User wrote:The firm I am at (energy-related) is hiring like mad. Certain sectors are going to be booming and certain sectors are going to not be booming.

I can't wait till fusion or some other form of renewable energy is invented and places like Houston start to resemble Detroit.

This may have been a part joke but look what were saying is true for every field. At various times in history being in them was a brilliant idea (aerospace engineering in the 60s, but there are a million examples) and at others it mean't disaster. There's some luck involved.

It was part joke but I just want people to start taking energy reform seriously. But every time oil gets cheaper or we find more of it here, we stop investing in finding new energy sources.

I really thought 2008 (when oil spiked) was going to be the turning point.

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wert3813
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Re: 2013 & 2014 are "years of anxiety" for Biglaw

Postby wert3813 » Fri May 24, 2013 5:03 pm

RELIC wrote:
wert3813 wrote:
RELIC wrote:
Anonymous User wrote:The firm I am at (energy-related) is hiring like mad. Certain sectors are going to be booming and certain sectors are going to not be booming.

I can't wait till fusion or some other form of renewable energy is invented and places like Houston start to resemble Detroit.

This may have been a part joke but look what were saying is true for every field. At various times in history being in them was a brilliant idea (aerospace engineering in the 60s, but there are a million examples) and at others it mean't disaster. There's some luck involved.

It was part joke but I just want people to start taking energy reform seriously. But every time oil gets cheaper or we find more of it here, we stop investing in finding new energy sources.

I really thought 2008 (when oil spiked) was going to be the turning point.


We this is not officially off topic. I'm not a market fixes all guy but actually think the market will correct some of this in our lifetime. When solar is cheaper than oil solar will be used. I think that will happen.

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androstan
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Re: 2013 & 2014 are "years of anxiety" for Biglaw

Postby androstan » Fri May 24, 2013 6:04 pm

wert3813 wrote:
RELIC wrote:
wert3813 wrote:
RELIC wrote:I can't wait till fusion or some other form of renewable energy is invented and places like Houston start to resemble Detroit.

This may have been a part joke but look what were saying is true for every field. At various times in history being in them was a brilliant idea (aerospace engineering in the 60s, but there are a million examples) and at others it mean't disaster. There's some luck involved.

It was part joke but I just want people to start taking energy reform seriously. But every time oil gets cheaper or we find more of it here, we stop investing in finding new energy sources.

I really thought 2008 (when oil spiked) was going to be the turning point.


Well this is not officially off topic. I'm not a market fixes all guy but actually think the market will correct some of this in our lifetime. When solar is cheaper than oil solar will be used. I think that will happen.

The market fails to accurately assess the cost of fossil fuels. Costs that remain unaccounted for are being externalized onto future generations.

sirpartner82
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Re: 2013 & 2014 are "years of anxiety" for Biglaw

Postby sirpartner82 » Sat May 25, 2013 8:22 am

LOL at this entire thread, and the idea that the "good life" will be enjoyed by being a 90-hour a week, cut n' pasting, paper-pushing drone. Divide the # of hours worked by Biglaw's 160 K and you're not doing any better than skilled tradesmen such as plumbers and electricians, in fact probably a good bit worse when debt service is subtracted from salary. Of course, their jobs actually produce tangible work that has value, unlike law.

The whole economy is going implode soon anyway in this festering, has-been toilet of a country:



--LinkRemoved--

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wert3813
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Re: 2013 & 2014 are "years of anxiety" for Biglaw

Postby wert3813 » Sat May 25, 2013 11:02 am

sirpartner82 wrote:LOL at this entire thread, and the idea that the "good life" will be enjoyed by being a 90-hour a week, cut n' pasting, paper-pushing drone. Divide the # of hours worked by Biglaw's 160 K and you're not doing any better than skilled tradesmen such as plumbers and electricians, in fact probably a good bit worse when debt service is subtracted from salary. Of course, their jobs actually produce tangible work that has value, unlike law.

The whole economy is going implode soon anyway in this festering, has-been toilet of a country:



--LinkRemoved--

Oh wow you are sad situation.

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TTRansfer
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Re: 2013 & 2014 are "years of anxiety" for Biglaw

Postby TTRansfer » Sat May 25, 2013 6:58 pm

sirpartner82 wrote:LOL at this entire thread, and the idea that the "good life" will be enjoyed by being a 90-hour a week, cut n' pasting, paper-pushing drone. Divide the # of hours worked by Biglaw's 160 K and you're not doing any better than skilled tradesmen such as plumbers and electricians, in fact probably a good bit worse when debt service is subtracted from salary. Of course, their jobs actually produce tangible work that has value, unlike law.

The whole economy is going implode soon anyway in this festering, has-been toilet of a country:



--LinkRemoved--


Sorry that your career didn't work out, bro. Perhaps if you didn't act like this you wouldn't have been so bad off.

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TaipeiMort
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Re: 2013 & 2014 are "years of anxiety" for Biglaw

Postby TaipeiMort » Sat May 25, 2013 7:39 pm

I can't speak to litigation jobs, but I think that OP and other doom and gloomers (may) fail to realize that a significant value-add performed by corporate attorneys is really a CYA function for big business. Large companies have already brought in-house the corporate law functions which may not harm market cap (e.g., licensing, compliance, HR/benefits). However, no corporate manager wants to be blamed for problems sourcing from a botched S1, a missing disclosure, missed asset issue on in M&A diligence, or failed series A round. For example, Walmart recently lost 8 billion market cap in a day because of a recent compliance error that they should have outsourced to outside counsel. None of these services are efficient, or optimally priced. However, corporations are going to continue to pay huge premiums so that the C-level execs can tell the board that they paid DLA, so it isn't their fault. Look at management consulting firms. They really perform a CYA function first and foremost, but no one wants to axe them because this CYA function is worth huge amounts to management. Therefore, big business is really just stuck in a huge prisoners dilemma with the legal industry.

Also, a lot of firms have already self-corrected the fat issues. They have cut excess associates, and are hiring a lot more on the basis of need out of the lateral market instead of expectation in the entry-level market. I was having a discussion with a managing partner of a major vault corporate firm. He stated that they have forecasted the elimination of the billable hour, and are purposely staffing leanly on projects so that the younger corporate attorneys are prepared to be paid on a project basis instead of billable hours.

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Old Gregg
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Re: 2013 & 2014 are "years of anxiety" for Biglaw

Postby Old Gregg » Sun May 26, 2013 12:23 am

Literally 99% of the ATL layoff posts have involved just staff, staff attorneys, and other terminations of that ilk. The other layoffs involving actual partner track attorneys (as distinguished from staff attorneys) have been from sinking ships, like Dickstein (though, to be fair, I know they've been stealthing and no-offering since at least 2010).

Any other fear that is out there is just ATL looking for page views.

Mass layoffs a la 08-09 aren't happening if we stay on our current course, which isn't necessarily gangbusters, but isn't exactly financial crisis either.

At this point, the new normal is to accept that you will never make equity at a big law firm, and even if you do that job is no longer nearly as secure as it used to be.

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Old Gregg
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Re: 2013 & 2014 are "years of anxiety" for Biglaw

Postby Old Gregg » Sun May 26, 2013 12:24 am

And OP, please don't cite zerohedge as a source. Yes, they're right sometimes just like people who are predicting the end of the world will be right and the sun turns into a red giant a few billion years from now.

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jrsbaseball5
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Re: 2013 & 2014 are "years of anxiety" for Biglaw

Postby jrsbaseball5 » Sun May 26, 2013 1:23 am

The OP is an alt for the same dude who said everyone can be Wall Street power brokers and that teachers make 80k a year.

Heed at your own risk.

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Blessedassurance
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Re: 2013 & 2014 are "years of anxiety" for Biglaw

Postby Blessedassurance » Sun May 26, 2013 1:36 am

NYstate wrote:Plenty of 0Ls want to think that hiring will stay the same or improve. They don't want to know about data indicating otherwise. And these 0Ls will have more debt than their lathamed predecessors.

They aren't idiots . They just want to make a career. They don't see how precarious biglaw remains.


there are threads floating around where they get together and create elaborate models (built on wild assumptions) where they pay biglaw off in new york in 2 to 3 years. they'll just do hoboken, slide, and let it do what it do.

this scam will go on for at least a decade. you can stuff facts in the face of 0l's and they'll just come up with another way to justify their choice...whistling dixie while heading to the gallows.

of course their plight is compounded by the perennial existence of that one bozo grad that beats the odds...never mind his gazillion peers wandering in the doldrums of killself territory.

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Blessedassurance
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Re: 2013 & 2014 are "years of anxiety" for Biglaw

Postby Blessedassurance » Sun May 26, 2013 1:43 am

Anonymous User wrote:Honest question. If 20 percent of associates go on to become partners and essentially millionaires, is there any other career path with that good of odds? 1 in 5. Especially when you consider a lot of big law associates self select to leave into still manageable 6 figure salaries with good hours?


partners in some secondary markets make like 400 grand a year. law is not an easy path to riches contrary to what a lot of people entering believe. if you are lucky, you can guarantee yourself a solidly middle-to-upper-middle-class lifestyle. a select few make those millions, and they are more likely to be in shitlaw.

read this:

http://abovethelaw.com/2012/09/new-data ... pensation/

or just google "law firm partner salaries"

Pokemon
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Re: 2013 & 2014 are "years of anxiety" for Biglaw

Postby Pokemon » Sun May 26, 2013 5:27 pm

TaipeiMort wrote:I can't speak to litigation jobs, but I think that OP and other doom and gloomers (may) fail to realize that a significant value-add performed by corporate attorneys is really a CYA function for big business. Large companies have already brought in-house the corporate law functions which may not harm market cap (e.g., licensing, compliance, HR/benefits). However, no corporate manager wants to be blamed for problems sourcing from a botched S1, a missing disclosure, missed asset issue on in M&A diligence, or failed series A round. For example, Walmart recently lost 8 billion market cap in a day because of a recent compliance error that they should have outsourced to outside counsel. None of these services are efficient, or optimally priced. However, corporations are going to continue to pay huge premiums so that the C-level execs can tell the board that they paid DLA, so it isn't their fault. Look at management consulting firms. They really perform a CYA function first and foremost, but no one wants to axe them because this CYA function is worth huge amounts to management. Therefore, big business is really just stuck in a huge prisoners dilemma with the legal industry.

Also, a lot of firms have already self-corrected the fat issues. They have cut excess associates, and are hiring a lot more on the basis of need out of the lateral market instead of expectation in the entry-level market. I was having a discussion with a managing partner of a major vault corporate firm. He stated that they have forecasted the elimination of the billable hour, and are purposely staffing leanly on projects so that the younger corporate attorneys are prepared to be paid on a project basis instead of billable hours.


I agree with all of that, but it is also not just that. There was a recent article on the economist about how the consulting industry has been booming. It is not just about the insurance that having an outside firm look at the problem, it is also that in an increasingly complex world, you need specialized knowledge that you cannot afford to keep us staff. You hire McKinsey because a problem has arisen and your staff is not specialized/has experience in solving that type of problem, whereas McKinsey just did that type of work for your competitor.

In the law setting, a firm that goes to the capital markets once every three years is probably not going to keep as staff people that specialize in capital market transactions, because two out of those three years they will be doing nothing and will not be developing any expertise.
Or a firm that completes a merger once every three years will in a similar manner not keep M&A lawyers for three years on their payroll. GE on the other hand, who has to do their taxes every year, does not mind having a huge tax department. Same to an extent applies to insurance firms.

This is really the reason why corporate firms continue to exist as separate entities.

Ps, the elimination of the billable hour seems naive to me. You want your lawyer to advise you of the risks, and generally contingency projects provide for incentives to try to finish the project so you get paid even if not ideal/not fully risk assessed, particularly in transactional context.




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