manofjustice wrote: r6_philly wrote:
PennBull wrote:Is there generally solid correlation between the sizes of summer classes from year to year? In other words, can we use the #s for the sizes of 2012 summers and just assume they'll be the same or pretty close?
I assume most classes will be similar. Practice groups fluctuate, and some firms are doing better than others. So there may be variations but I expect over all it's about similar.
So, be aware of firms with smaller classes.
Generally there is a correlation, but post-crash, median class sizes fell by about a third, from 12 to 8. So 2011 was 9, IIRC. So, ya know, we are waiting here for a rebound...
Penn 3L here, I lurked on these threads a lot last year but I rarely (if ever) actually post. Thought I would weigh in and give back for current lurkers. FYI currently summering in NYC; had a multitude of offers in NYC and a couple of other markets.
You should definitely rely on past years class sizes when you are creating your bid list. Firms don't necessarily have the same class size every year because class sizes fluctuate a lot (especially in recent years) based on the economy. But firms that had the biggest class sizes for 2012 are very likely to have the biggest class sizes next year as well (regardless of whether all class sizes go up or down). Likewise, firms that have small class sizes this year are also likely to have small class sizes next year (even if all class sizes increase by 10%). You shouldn't be targeting firms with a specific class size anyway; you need to bid on firms with large classes generally. Generally speaking, it is safe for you to assume that firms with the largest classes this year will also be the firms with the largest classes next year, regardless of whether the actual numbers are similar to this year.