LawIdiot86 wrote:Anonymous User wrote:LawIdiot86 wrote:Anonymous User wrote:Incoming SA here. The summer is still on. Let's hope they can stabilize the boat because there are nearly 1000 attorneys still working at the firm.
Despite almost being a lawyer, I am still amazed by the profession's inability to recognize patterns or discern probabilities. From seeing the 10% odds of biglaw as worth it to believing professors who say that judges' opinions are guided by higher principles of neutral interpretation, lawyers will buy nearly any crock of crap concerning their own profession. In this case, the idea that the summer is "still on" is fairly laughable. Before you could say that the summer is still on or that they can stabilize the boat, you need to do some math. Dewey has now had 10% of its partners leave the firm on their own free will (they weren't fired or de-equitized).
To be able to establish that it there is a possibility of the firm surviving, you need to look at other NLJ250 firms that have lost 10% or more of their partners and see what percentage of them have survived. I don't know which have survived a 10%+ hit, but http://lawshucks.com/biglaw-dead-pool/ indicates a large number of peers have failed after passing the 10% point (Heller Ehrman; Howrey; Thelen; Thacher Proffitt Wood; WolfBlock; Brobeck; Coudert Brothers; Jenkens & Gilchrist; Arter & Hadden; and Altheimer & Gray). If you can find more than 10 firms that in the last decade have had 10%+ of their partners leave and have survived, then you can have reasonable hope in Dewey stabilizing the boat. If you can't find more than 10, then having hope would be irrational.
way to flame the fire
Sadly, the NLJ doesn't make things like --LinkRemoved-- as easily available as it used to, but I'm sure someone has a subscription or old spreadsheets and could figure out more recent partner departure rates. If you have a Dewey SA and are scared about a no-offer, it's worth the time to figure out the likelihood of dissolution and build that into your personal risk assessment.
A firm that seems to fit in the "survived" category is Schnader Harrison Segal & Lewis. Apparently in 2003 they lost 44% of their attorneys (they grew from 200 to 350 and fell back to 200) and are still in business today.