Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

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Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby Anonymous User » Mon Jan 30, 2012 8:50 pm

A-, B+, B+, B-, so I think I'm roughly at median or maybe a little below. This especially sucks because the class I got a B- in was my bread and butter heading into finals, but I essentially had a panic attack when taking it (was my first test, didn't sleep the night before), and knew upon leaving that I had bombed.

Pros: I do have over a year of work experience at a V100 firm and strong ties to two insular markets.

Negatives: I am paying sticker and will be over $200,000 in the hole if I stay in. If I bail now, I can probably find another paralegal job and pay off the debt I have. As such, I am BigLaw or bust.

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Doritos
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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby Doritos » Mon Jan 30, 2012 9:15 pm

Does P mean Penn?

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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby Anonymous User » Mon Jan 30, 2012 9:20 pm

Yes

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Doritos
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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby Doritos » Mon Jan 30, 2012 9:24 pm

I think you should stay. You have ties to insular markets, work experience, and median isn't the worst thing in the world. Obviously not ideal but you are far from DQ'ed from biglaw (aka a way to pay off 200k of debt). Figure out what you did wrong/right last semester and do better. It looks like your GPA is the result of an anomalous grade so I vote stay.

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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby Anonymous User » Mon Jan 30, 2012 9:24 pm

I would give it another semester and see if you can get closer to that top third mark. Sounds like there was a good chance you could have ended up with top 20% grades anyway if not for that one exam, and it's not like 1 semester at median is an impossible hill to climb.

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traehekat
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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby traehekat » Mon Jan 30, 2012 9:24 pm

^^^Sorry that should not have been anonymous.

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Grizz
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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby Grizz » Mon Jan 30, 2012 9:31 pm

Median at Penn with WE and ties to insular markets is not a great place to be, but definitely not a terrible place to be. Stick it out for another semester at least for sure.

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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby koalatriste » Mon Jan 30, 2012 9:40 pm

the poster who said "yes" is an absolute idiot.

below approximately top 1/3 at MVP/elsewhere, as has been said numerous times, your grades become less of a factor. will the bottom 2/3's all get biglaw? almost certainly not, but I think that you stand a good chance to be among those in the bottom 2/3 who do get jobs.

provided that you are smart about it (i.e., bid carefully and wisely, mass mail, interview well, network, etc. etc., do everything else TLS says), then you will be in a very promising position to get a biglaw job. i would stand by this assertion even if your GPA fell during the second semester - I know a bunch people who were lower in the class at lower T14s who got V100 offers. conversely, i'm sure there are median students at CCN that struck out (those people are probably at columbia. KIDDING, obviously).

in short: it's a new semester. do your absolute best without freaking yourself out and then think about jobs and whatnot AFTER finals end in May.

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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby r6_philly » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:27 pm

For everyone trumpeting the median is not a good place to be tune, I want to point you to the class of 2010 placement stats:

162 grads at law firms with 100 or more lawyers
49 clerks (I assume mostly/majority AIII)

That's 211 out 276 JDs awarded. (76%)

I am trying to draw the inference that median puts your employment prospects at risk, but I am having some difficulty.

http://www.law.upenn.edu/cpp/prospectiv ... stics.html

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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby koalatriste » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:32 pm

r6_philly wrote:For everyone trumpeting the median is not a good place to be tune, I want to point you to the class of 2010 placement stats:

162 grads at law firms with 100 or more lawyers
49 clerks (I assume mostly/majority AIII)

That's 211 out 276 JDs awarded. (76%)

I am trying to draw the inference that median puts your employment prospects at risk, but I am having some difficulty.


the class of 2010 went through OCI before everything went down and is really not ITE numbers. ITE is better represented by 2011 and 2012 - to the very limited extent that data are available.

with that being said, i don't disagree with your conclusion. see my above post. median is a place where your grades aren't low enough to hurt but not high enough to help. OP stands a good chance at a big law gig if s/he is smart/hustles/everything else.

in short, we may disagree about the exact extent of Penn/OP's job prospects (though I'm not even sure we disagree there), but i think we can agree that it is ridiculously stupid to drop out at this point.

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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby r6_philly » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:32 pm

Also, if people at median with V100 WE and ties to secondary markets don't get something worthwhile to afford loan repayments, there is going to be a huge problem for about 1/3 of the class.

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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby IAFG » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:38 pm

It's so inconceivable to me that someone with a decent statistical shot at market-paying work would want to go back to paralegaling that I have to ask: are you having second thoughts about becoming a lawyer?

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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby koalatriste » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:40 pm

IAFG wrote:It's so inconceivable to me that someone with a decent statistical shot at market-paying work would want to go back to paralegaling that I have to ask: are you having second thoughts about becoming a lawyer?


who isn't . . .

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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby r6_philly » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:40 pm

koalatriste wrote:the class of 2010 went through OCI before everything went down and is really not ITE numbers. ITE is better represented by 2011 and 2012 - to the very limited extent that data are available.


If 1L hiring is any indication, this year is NOT ITE. Maybe not pre ITE, but it certainly is not ITE. Firms are not going to add a bunch of 1Ls to their summer programs for no reason. Usually it means 1) they anticipate expansion for next year, or 2) 2L hiring did not yield full classes. Based on what 2Ls say about their OCI, I believe both factors are at play.

We may never get back to the hay days, but you do realize the stats I quoted means that the middle 60% got biglaw jobs. Clerk numbers are not likely to shrink, so even if biglaw hiring is smaller, we are still talking about 25% - maybe 65%? (that's middle 40% instead of 60%, I think that's conservative) that still extend way below median.

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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby r6_philly » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:40 pm

koalatriste wrote:
IAFG wrote:It's so inconceivable to me that someone with a decent statistical shot at market-paying work would want to go back to paralegaling that I have to ask: are you having second thoughts about becoming a lawyer?


who isn't . . .


I am not. Funny thing is I am probably one of the people who most likely should.

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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby koalatriste » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:43 pm

r6_philly wrote:
koalatriste wrote:the class of 2010 went through OCI before everything went down and is really not ITE numbers. ITE is better represented by 2011 and 2012 - to the very limited extent that data are available.


If 1L hiring is any indication, this year is NOT ITE. Maybe not pre ITE, but it certainly is not ITE. Firms are not going to add a bunch of 1Ls to their summer programs for no reason. Usually it means 1) they anticipate expansion for next year, or 2) 2L hiring did not yield full classes. Based on what 2Ls say about their OCI, I believe both factors are at play.

We may never get back to the hay days, but you do realize the stats I quoted means that the middle 60% got biglaw jobs. Clerk numbers are not likely to shrink, so even if biglaw hiring is smaller, we are still talking about 25% - maybe 65%? (that's middle 40% instead of 60%, I think that's conservative) that still extend way below median.


GRADES ARE COMPLETELY DETERMINATIVE OF HIRING DECISIONS. IF PENN PLACES 65% INTO BIG LAW, YOU HAVE TO BE IN THE TOP 65% TO GET A JOB. OMG YOU ARE SO RIGHT PLEASE ENLIGHTEN ME OH DIVINE 1L.

edit: you really need to re-read my original post. also, there is a separate thread for ITE speculation.
Last edited by koalatriste on Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby bk1 » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:44 pm

If you were okay with sticker at Penn prior to matriculation, getting median grades should not change that calculus.

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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby r6_philly » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:47 pm

koalatriste wrote:
GRADES ARE COMPLETELY DETERMINATIVE OF HIRING DECISIONS. IF PENN PLACES 65% INTO BIG LAW, YOU HAVE TO BE IN THE TOP 65% TO GET A JOB. OMG YOU ARE SO RIGHT PLEASE ENLIGHTEN ME OH DIVINE 1L.


What's the probability of a median graded student land in the middle 1/2 statistically based on a standard distribution of any factor?

OMG BEING A 1L IS COMPLETELY DETERMINATIVE OF THE VALIDITY OF MY OPINION REGARDING GETTING A JOB.

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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby koalatriste » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:53 pm

r6_philly wrote:
koalatriste wrote:
GRADES ARE COMPLETELY DETERMINATIVE OF HIRING DECISIONS. IF PENN PLACES 65% INTO BIG LAW, YOU HAVE TO BE IN THE TOP 65% TO GET A JOB. OMG YOU ARE SO RIGHT PLEASE ENLIGHTEN ME OH DIVINE 1L.


What's the probability of a median graded student land in the middle 1/2 statistically based on a standard distribution of any factor?

OMG BEING A 1L IS COMPLETELY DETERMINATIVE OF THE VALIDITY OF MY OPINION REGARDING GETTING A JOB.


being a 1L might not be determinative, but being uninformed is.

your question, once again, underscores your complete lack of understanding of the hiring process. re-read my initial post. OP may or may not get big law. it's impossible to say. however, s/he does have some good baseline factors that indicate, with hustle, big law is a very likely possibility. strike outs and underperformance happen at every T13, though. conversely, people consistently outperform their numbers at every T13. maybe some median kids at penn got V5/V10 firms - who knows? maybe some of them struck out? both are likely.

if you re-read my initial reply to you, i was attempting to bring the discussion back to OP's actual question. should OP drop out? no way. for me, it's an open and shut case.

r6philly, if you want to continue to flame about random things, i.e., jobs, the economy, Penn, the actual dynamics of firm selection, and placement statistics, you are welcome to start another topic that discusses such. you have posted so prolifically, yet listen so infrequently.

edit: grammar and additions.

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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby kublaikahn » Mon Jan 30, 2012 11:04 pm

One grade in one class should determine your future? Put your head down and work.

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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby r6_philly » Mon Jan 30, 2012 11:26 pm

koalatriste wrote:being a 1L might not be determinative, but being uninformed is.

koalatriste wrote:
GRADES ARE COMPLETELY DETERMINATIVE OF HIRING DECISIONS. IF PENN PLACES 65% INTO BIG LAW, YOU HAVE TO BE IN THE TOP 65% TO GET A JOB. OMG YOU ARE SO RIGHT PLEASE ENLIGHTEN ME OH DIVINE 1L.


if you want to continue to flame about random things....



I missed in your completely unnecessarily capitalized message where you separate being 1L is not determinative and being unformed is.

I hope you stop flaming about random things such as divine 1Ls and such...

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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby sunynp » Mon Jan 30, 2012 11:40 pm

Op: does career services have solid information on how median did last fall? I think you need more I formation. It sounds like a substantial percentage of your class is not getting biglaw- 35% or so from the figures being discussed.

I think you should at least stick it out one more semester with biglaw or bust - will you be able to cover another semester of debt?

The bottom 10-20% might consider cutting their losses now- with the exceptions of wealthy families, no debt or some guaranteed kind of gig. You arent in the definite drop out group, i guess, but i am very debt averse. I'm glad to see you are evaluating your chances at a successful career as you go along.

My guess is that you will stay at least through OCI unless you bomb next semester . But you can't stay if you don't get the biglaw job you need.

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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby r6_philly » Mon Jan 30, 2012 11:49 pm

Career services has grade distributions for students with offers during past OCIs. There is a good amount of firms who accepts a good percent of B/B- grades. The GPA of combined successful grades for firms range from 3.1+. Because it is aggregate GPA (mean of all grades), the distribution of individual GPAs should range from sub 3 and up. They did not give detailed, broken down data on individual grades. I think people with strictly B-/C may have a really hard time getting any bites, but people with middle 1/3 grades should be fine with a couple of bad grades sprinkled in. (I already did all the stats analysis on my own. Career services only give you very simple breakdowns)

Of course grade are not determinative, but it is the only quantitative measure we have, so it's important to keep them in mind. But I'd say for the 40+% straight through students with little work or interview experience, they may be weighed more.

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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby koalatriste » Tue Jan 31, 2012 1:00 am

r6_philly wrote:
koalatriste wrote:being a 1L might not be determinative, but being uninformed is.

koalatriste wrote:
GRADES ARE COMPLETELY DETERMINATIVE OF HIRING DECISIONS. IF PENN PLACES 65% INTO BIG LAW, YOU HAVE TO BE IN THE TOP 65% TO GET A JOB. OMG YOU ARE SO RIGHT PLEASE ENLIGHTEN ME OH DIVINE 1L.


if you want to continue to flame about random things....



I missed in your completely unnecessarily capitalized message where you separate being 1L is not determinative and being unformed is.

I hope you stop flaming about random things such as divine 1Ls and such...


I'm going to be the bigger person and end this. I've added you as a foe, so I won't see any more of your posts.

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Re: Roughly median at P -- Should I drop out?

Postby dabomb75 » Tue Jan 31, 2012 1:18 am

Even without the work experience or ties to two (by insular I'm guessing you mean smaller) markets, it's ridiculous to be at median and even be thinking about dropping out. First off, at median you still have a decent chance of getting hired. You also can't have come in and automatically expected to be in the top 1/3 of the class, and if you did, well that's just idiotic. 3rd, it's only one semester, if you manage to average a 3.5 or 3.6 2nd semester that'll for sure put you in the top ~40%-~35%, which is a seemingly really safe place to be at at Penn.

I would probably only be considering cutting losses at bottom 30% of the class. Anything else has a chance to make it up during 2nd semester, plus like others have pointed out, ~65% of the class can get biglaw status jobs, and with your extra factors you'll stand out more than your average median student




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