How bad is the legal job market?

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FlanAl
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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby FlanAl » Sun Dec 04, 2011 10:54 pm

another thing about the data that i like is that those gov positions are prestigious ones that probably didn't go to kids who simply struck out. considering that the 80% that got firm SA jobs wasn't even the top 80% means that firms were willing to go very deep into that class. heck with 68% at vault ranked firms you could feasibly be just barely above the bottom 25% mark and get vault. now if this was for the actual graduating class this would be a completely different thread. I wish this was that thread

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NinerFan
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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby NinerFan » Sun Dec 04, 2011 11:00 pm

FlanAl wrote:another thing about the data that i like is that those gov positions are prestigious ones that probably didn't go to kids who simply struck out. considering that the 80% that got firm SA jobs wasn't even the top 80% means that firms were willing to go very deep into that class. heck with 68% at vault ranked firms you could feasibly be just barely above the bottom 25% mark and get vault. now if this was for the actual graduating class this would be a completely different thread. I wish this was that thread


Going from my memory of the thread, we have no way of knowing if those gov positions were prestigious or not. It might have been DOJ or SEC or something. It might have been an internship at the USAO, which is not. Correct me if I'm wrong.

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FlanAl
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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby FlanAl » Sun Dec 04, 2011 11:04 pm

in the first part of the thread he said they were hard to get/prestigious pi gigs. he guessed that half the kids probably wanted those spots instead of biglaw. I'm just saying that it wasn't like just the top 68% got vault. That there were probably people below the 70% mark that got vault is probably a good sign.

Eco
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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby Eco » Mon Dec 05, 2011 4:27 pm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQa6BZhPdJs

You're the girl, and that's how optimistic you will be when first looking for jobs.

Guess which one is the job market?

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FlanAl
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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby FlanAl » Mon Dec 05, 2011 6:31 pm

at least I'll be singing before the book hits me, before I'd just be sobbing. In all seriousness though until I saw the chicago numbers this site made me believe that ITE t14 people had to be top 25% to get jobs with the "wait until 2011 numbers come out, everyone is screwed forever!" mentality.

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johansantana21
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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby johansantana21 » Mon Dec 05, 2011 6:36 pm

FlanAl wrote:at least I'll be singing before the book hits me, before I'd just be sobbing. In all seriousness though until I saw the chicago numbers this site made me believe that ITE t14 people had to be top 25% to get jobs with the "wait until 2011 numbers come out, everyone is screwed forever!" mentality.


Chicago isn't Cornell. hth. I got to Cornell also btw.

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FlanAl
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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby FlanAl » Mon Dec 05, 2011 6:48 pm

definitely recognize that and am not trying to say that they are the same thing. I'm sure Cornell is not as good. At the same time all you ever see is woe is me we're all super screwed! I think that most of us came to school this year thinking we had a 1/3 chance at a solid job, its nice to have some evidence that chances are probably a little better than that.

PMan99
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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby PMan99 » Mon Dec 05, 2011 6:52 pm

.
Last edited by PMan99 on Thu Feb 23, 2012 7:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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NinerFan
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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby NinerFan » Mon Dec 05, 2011 8:15 pm

FlanAl wrote:at least I'll be singing before the book hits me, before I'd just be sobbing. In all seriousness though until I saw the chicago numbers this site made me believe that ITE t14 people had to be top 25% to get jobs with the "wait until 2011 numbers come out, everyone is screwed forever!" mentality.


Has it been like that? I thought the general thought has usually been that if you're above median, or even median at a T-14, you'll get looked at by Biglaw. LR, secondary's, moot court, etc all help too. Even below medians aren't screwed if they hustle enough, have connections, network well, etc.

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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby c3pO4 » Mon Dec 05, 2011 8:32 pm

NinerFan wrote:
FlanAl wrote:at least I'll be singing before the book hits me, before I'd just be sobbing. In all seriousness though until I saw the chicago numbers this site made me believe that ITE t14 people had to be top 25% to get jobs with the "wait until 2011 numbers come out, everyone is screwed forever!" mentality.


Has it been like that? I thought the general thought has usually been that if you're above median, or even median at a T-14, you'll get looked at by Biglaw. LR, secondary's, moot court, etc all help too. Even below medians aren't screwed if they hustle enough, have connections, network well, etc.


You are HUGELY underselling interview ability and practice/preparation. You'll see soon enough. Being bad or unlucky at this can doom even those with great grades and creds, and also save those with even poor grades and creds. This is probably the #1 thing 1L's don't realize about 2L OCI.

09042014
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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby 09042014 » Mon Dec 05, 2011 8:36 pm

Bronte wrote:I know this is a troll because no one could be at T14 (potentially with a full ride) and think it's okay to write a post with a single hard return after every sentence. Try harder.


I strongly disagree.

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NinerFan
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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby NinerFan » Mon Dec 05, 2011 10:30 pm

c3pO4 wrote:
NinerFan wrote:
FlanAl wrote:at least I'll be singing before the book hits me, before I'd just be sobbing. In all seriousness though until I saw the chicago numbers this site made me believe that ITE t14 people had to be top 25% to get jobs with the "wait until 2011 numbers come out, everyone is screwed forever!" mentality.


Has it been like that? I thought the general thought has usually been that if you're above median, or even median at a T-14, you'll get looked at by Biglaw. LR, secondary's, moot court, etc all help too. Even below medians aren't screwed if they hustle enough, have connections, network well, etc.


You are HUGELY underselling interview ability and practice/preparation. You'll see soon enough. Being bad or unlucky at this can doom even those with great grades and creds, and also save those with even poor grades and creds. This is probably the #1 thing 1L's don't realize about 2L OCI.


I've already been through 2L interviews, so I've already seen. I was responding to his thought that the consensus on this board was "top 25% for jobs omgzzzz!!!11!" by saying that generally speaking at the T-14 level, if you're median or above, you're competitive for biglaw. Obviously other factors go in too, but having median or above grades should get your foot in the door so to speak with a number of firms so you're not wasting your time during your screener.

I agree with you, interviewing ability is important. I got far fewer callbacks than I probably should have gotten because I had some off-days during my screeners.

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deebs
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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby deebs » Tue Dec 06, 2011 1:02 am

You can't get the picture by looking at all the recent posts about what the fuck else to do with a law degree?

Eco
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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby Eco » Tue Dec 06, 2011 1:48 pm

The other side of the trap are people on TLS who say that it's not all doom and gloom as long as you have awesome interviewing skills. It goes both ways actually. If you are right there in the middle with OK grades and OK interviewing skills you can get the job. But if your grades suck ass, you need amazing interviewing skills. And if your grades are absolutely outstanding, you can have pretty bad interviewing skills and still land a job.

But really, its mostly grades.

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vanwinkle
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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby vanwinkle » Tue Dec 06, 2011 2:24 pm

Eco wrote:The other side of the trap are people on TLS who say that it's not all doom and gloom as long as you have awesome interviewing skills. It goes both ways actually. If you are right there in the middle with OK grades and OK interviewing skills you can get the job. But if your grades suck ass, you need amazing interviewing skills. And if your grades are absolutely outstanding, you can have pretty bad interviewing skills and still land a job.

But really, its mostly grades.

From most schools, it's more like "If you have good grades and just OK interviewing skills, or if your grades are OK and you have amazing interviewing skills". Being just "OK" at both is not going to cut it, and that goes for nearly everywhere.

Also, there are people on this board with top grades from a T14 who are unemployed. If it was just grades like you suggest, they should have jobs by now.

r6_philly
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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby r6_philly » Tue Dec 06, 2011 2:34 pm

vanwinkle wrote:Also, there are people on this board with top grades from a T14 who are unemployed. If it was just grades like you suggest, they should have jobs by now.


Since the market seems to have recovered a bit, why are those still jobless? Why do top grades strike out? Can we really attribute it all to interview skills? It seems to run against the odds for someone with top grades to not get lucky at least once.

BeenDidThat
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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby BeenDidThat » Tue Dec 06, 2011 2:37 pm

r6_philly wrote:
vanwinkle wrote:Also, there are people on this board with top grades from a T14 who are unemployed. If it was just grades like you suggest, they should have jobs by now.


Since the market seems to have recovered a bit, why are those still jobless? Why do top grades strike out? Can we really attribute it all to interview skills? It seems to run against the odds for someone with top grades to not get lucky at least once.


Have you not met some folks with really good grades? Some are awesome, normal people. Others, well, let me just say that I wouldn't be surprised if they had killed children before.

09042014
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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby 09042014 » Tue Dec 06, 2011 2:41 pm

Let me put forth a hypothesis. Law interviews are conducted by weirdos and former law students and, therefore, what is a good interviewing in general might not work well in law firm situations.

Also, I think interviewing ability is hit or miss in the screener stage. A lot of firms merely filter by GPA, other factors, when determining whether to give you a CB.

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Grizz
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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby Grizz » Tue Dec 06, 2011 2:43 pm

r6_philly wrote:
vanwinkle wrote:Also, there are people on this board with top grades from a T14 who are unemployed. If it was just grades like you suggest, they should have jobs by now.


Since the market seems to have recovered a bit, why are those still jobless? Why do top grades strike out? Can we really attribute it all to interview skills? It seems to run against the odds for someone with top grades to not get lucky at least once.

Because grades are neither necessary nor sufficient, something you won't realize until you hit OCI.

09042014
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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby 09042014 » Tue Dec 06, 2011 2:55 pm

r6_philly wrote:
vanwinkle wrote:Also, there are people on this board with top grades from a T14 who are unemployed. If it was just grades like you suggest, they should have jobs by now.


Since the market seems to have recovered a bit, why are those still jobless? Why do top grades strike out? Can we really attribute it all to interview skills? It seems to run against the odds for someone with top grades to not get lucky at least once.


From what little I can gleam, if you have really top grades you are almost set for sure. There are several firms that will just take anyone in the top 10-15% at a T14, no matter how shitty you are. I'd imagine if you are really really awkward or hostile you could strike out, but you probably won't.

Then there are the people in the clearly above median, but not the top of their class (the definition varies from T3 to T6 to T14). They've got a good shot, but you call fall through the cracks. No firm is dying to have them, but most firms end up taking a ton of these people. If you are bad at interviewing, bid really shitty (like bid all DC, or Chicago with poor ties), or get very unlucky, you are screwed.

The people near and below median have to use something other than grades to get a job. The worse the grades the more you have to show. Bidding is super important because in some cities and many firms you aren't getting a jerb no matter what.

Why has the market recovered and there are still jobless? I think there are some structural changes that have occurred. Most firms I talked to see to have outsourced their discovery, which decreased the number of junior associates needed. This though, would change the retention rate. They wouldn't have to shed as many midlevel associates.

In a year or two the midlevel market might get so hot that firms realize they need to start recruiting more law students. But I think right now firms would rather poach laterals than try to recruit so far ahead.

Just my mostly uniformed guessing though.

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Grizz
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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby Grizz » Tue Dec 06, 2011 3:06 pm

Desert Fox wrote:
r6_philly wrote:
vanwinkle wrote:Also, there are people on this board with top grades from a T14 who are unemployed. If it was just grades like you suggest, they should have jobs by now.


Since the market seems to have recovered a bit, why are those still jobless? Why do top grades strike out? Can we really attribute it all to interview skills? It seems to run against the odds for someone with top grades to not get lucky at least once.


From what little I can gleam, if you have really top grades you are almost set for sure. There are several firms that will just take anyone in the top 10-15% at a T14, no matter how shitty you are. I'd imagine if you are really really awkward or hostile you could strike out, but you probably won't.

Then there are the people in the clearly above median, but not the top of their class (the definition varies from T3 to T6 to T14). They've got a good shot, but you call fall through the cracks. No firm is dying to have them, but most firms end up taking a ton of these people. If you are bad at interviewing, bid really shitty (like bid all DC, or Chicago with poor ties), or get very unlucky, you are screwed.

The people near and below median have to use something other than grades to get a job. The worse the grades the more you have to show. Bidding is super important because in some cities and many firms you aren't getting a jerb no matter what.

Why has the market recovered and there are still jobless? I think there are some structural changes that have occurred. Most firms I talked to see to have outsourced their discovery, which decreased the number of junior associates needed. This though, would change the retention rate. They wouldn't have to shed as many midlevel associates.

In a year or two the midlevel market might get so hot that firms realize they need to start recruiting more law students. But I think right now firms would rather poach laterals than try to recruit so far ahead.

Just my mostly uniformed guessing though.

From what I saw, I pretty much agree with this.

A lot of 0L and 1L see "Oh wow, 65% NLJ250 + AIII? Just avoid bottom third!" But after a certain point, your grades can't speak for you, and you really need to have that something extra: IP, URM, WE, strong ties to a small and insular 2ndary mkt, nepotism, etc.

People with good grades can tank themselves by bidding horribly, waiting too late to mass mail, etc. There a ton of ways you can screw up.

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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby Eco » Tue Dec 06, 2011 5:26 pm

Also, there are people on this board with top grades from a T14 who are unemployed. If it was just grades like you suggest, they should have jobs by now.


I didn't say its just grades, just saying its mostly grades.

Anyways, the big lesson IMO is that a lot of people from top schools (including myself) have realized that big law is more and more difficult to attain, and that other career options are now in play. Medium, small firms, they do provide opportunity and a decent starting salary. It's not over. It's horrible but it's not over.

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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby Anonymous User » Tue Dec 06, 2011 7:01 pm

r6_philly wrote:It seems to run against the odds for someone with top grades to not get lucky at least once.


Welcome to the law of large numbers. Yes, it is unlikely for any particular student not to get lucky at least once. However, when you are talking about hundreds or thousands of students, it is almost certain that some will not get lucky at least once. Think about it: the probability of a quarter coming up heads five times in a row is 1/32. However, if 1000 people all toss a quarter five times, approximately 31 of them will get five heads in a row. That any particular tosser will is very unlikely, but it is virtually certain that some tosser will (like 99.999999999998%, if I did the math right).



Grizz wrote:A lot of 0L and 1L see "Oh wow, 65% NLJ250 + AIII? Just avoid bottom third!" But after a certain point, your grades can't speak for you, and you really need to have that something extra: IP, URM, WE, strong ties to a small and insular 2ndary mkt, nepotism, etc.


I think this is one of the most important misinterpretations of valid employment statistics. It is so easy to assume that if x% go into NLJ250 firms, that's the rank cut off that makes you safe. People fail to realize that there are huge numbers of students that have one of the factors - which can be decisive even with shit grades - you mention or some other wild card. If the number is 65%, it may be that if you are otherwise unremarkable, you can be confident in the top third, very uncertain in the middle third, and out of luck in the bottom third.

Anecdotally, I'd say that at Michigan approximately 1/3 of the class had some distinction, such as the ones you mention, that could have gotten them a job even if they were in the bottom third. Going with the 65%, if there were a class of 100, the top 33 students are going to take half of those 65 jobs. We're down to 32. However, there are still, statistically, 22 wildcard students in the population. To be fair, we'll eliminate the 2 who end up in the bottom 10%. So those 20 wild card students take 20 of the jobs. There are now 12 NLJ jobs left for the 45 unremarkable students outside of the top third. Have fun!
Last edited by Anonymous User on Tue Dec 06, 2011 7:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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IAFG
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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby IAFG » Tue Dec 06, 2011 7:07 pm

^^ everything this guy said.

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Grizz
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Re: How bad is the legal job market?

Postby Grizz » Tue Dec 06, 2011 7:20 pm

IAFG wrote:^^ everything this guy said.

Seriously. 100% credited. TLS places a lot of emphasis on grades because that's the only thing you can change one you're in law school (can't get new strong ties, WE, IP, URM, etc.). But 0L and 1L shouldn't take it to mean that it's the only thing, or that a certain level or grades will make you 100% safe. And you should realize this BEFORE OCI hits.




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