Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios Forum
Forum rules
Anonymous Posting
Anonymous posting is only appropriate when you are revealing sensitive employment related information about a firm, job, etc. You may anonymously respond on topic to these threads. Unacceptable uses include: harassing another user, joking around, testing the feature, or other things that are more appropriate in the lounge.
Failure to follow these rules will get you outed, warned, or banned.
Anonymous Posting
Anonymous posting is only appropriate when you are revealing sensitive employment related information about a firm, job, etc. You may anonymously respond on topic to these threads. Unacceptable uses include: harassing another user, joking around, testing the feature, or other things that are more appropriate in the lounge.
Failure to follow these rules will get you outed, warned, or banned.
-
- Posts: 428542
- Joined: Tue Aug 11, 2009 9:32 am
Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios
I went to law school, not math school. So, if the DC cb/offer ratio is about 44%, and I have three callbacks, what is the % chance I get an offer?
-
- Posts: 72
- Joined: Thu Mar 17, 2011 12:56 am
Re: Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios
You're guaranteed 1.32 offers. Go celebrate!
In all seriousness, I don't think entire cities have a CB/Offer ratio. It varies by firm, and even then personality makes a huge difference.
In all seriousness, I don't think entire cities have a CB/Offer ratio. It varies by firm, and even then personality makes a huge difference.
-
- Posts: 428542
- Joined: Tue Aug 11, 2009 9:32 am
Re: Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios
I know I'm just going off NALP aggregate numbers for DC. I'm just curious. 1.32 seems wrong... To be fair, though, that is the same number I came up with.IthacaIsWet wrote:You're guaranteed 1.32 offers. Go celebrate!
In all seriousness, I don't think entire cities have a CB/Offer ratio. It varies by firm, and even then personality makes a huge difference.
-
- Posts: 428542
- Joined: Tue Aug 11, 2009 9:32 am
Re: Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios
+1IthacaIsWet wrote:You're guaranteed 1.32 offers. Go celebrate!
In all seriousness, I don't think entire cities have a CB/Offer ratio. It varies by firm, and even then personality makes a huge difference.
And also, there are going to be a larger-than-you-might-think number of people who would get offers from all three of those firms and a larger-than-you-might-think number of people who would get offers from none.
-
- Posts: 428542
- Joined: Tue Aug 11, 2009 9:32 am
Re: Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios
Chance of an offer is 44%. Chance of no offer is 56%. Chance of three no offers: .56*.56*.56 = 17.6%Anonymous User wrote:I went to law school, not math school. So, if the DC cb/offer ratio is about 44%, and I have three callbacks, what is the % chance I get an offer?
Chance of at least 1 offer: 1-.176 = 82.4%
Want to continue reading?
Register now to search topics and post comments!
Absolutely FREE!
Already a member? Login
- Bildungsroman
- Posts: 5529
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2010 2:42 pm
Re: Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios
82%.
This meaningless and inaccurate prediction has been brought to you by today's sponsor, A Fundamental Misunderstanding of Both Probability and Hiring™.
This meaningless and inaccurate prediction has been brought to you by today's sponsor, A Fundamental Misunderstanding of Both Probability and Hiring™.
-
- Posts: 428542
- Joined: Tue Aug 11, 2009 9:32 am
Re: Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios
I did go to math school. My advice to you is to forget anyone ever told you that people kept track of CB to Offer ratios. They are completely useless from an applicant's perspective.
Here's what you need to know: you are in the door. People in other fields would kill to participate in an interview process that netted offers to almost half of the people who came in.
Here's what you need to know: you are in the door. People in other fields would kill to participate in an interview process that netted offers to almost half of the people who came in.
-
- Posts: 332
- Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2011 7:26 pm
Re: Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios
And gave you only one chance in your career to get a job.Anonymous User wrote:People in other fields would kill to participate in an interview process that netted offers to almost half of the people who came in.
-
- Posts: 7
- Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:52 pm
Re: Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios
This is the anon from above, I don't know why I posted anon.kahechsof wrote:And gave you only one chance in your career to get a job.
That is a totally fair point. I just think that's a risky way of thinking going into CBs. It's hard to play scared.
-
- Posts: 332
- Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2011 7:26 pm
Re: Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios
Fair.proverbs120 wrote:This is the anon from above, I don't know why I posted anon.kahechsof wrote:And gave you only one chance in your career to get a job.
That is a totally fair point. I just think that's a risky way of thinking going into CBs. It's hard to play scared.
-
- Posts: 13
- Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2010 9:09 pm
Re: Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios
The probability that you get an offer from firm A is not independent of the probability that you get an offer from firm B. Therefore, you cannot draw any conclusions about the chance that you get an offer from the aggregate offer/CB ratio.
- AreJay711
- Posts: 3406
- Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2010 8:51 pm
Re: Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios
Well, actually just probability. The problem is they aren't entirely random or independent variables in play.Bildungsroman wrote:82%.
This meaningless and inaccurate prediction has been brought to you by today's sponsor, A Fundamental Misunderstanding of Both Probability and Hiring™.
Edit: Beat to it.
Register now!
Resources to assist law school applicants, students & graduates.
It's still FREE!
Already a member? Login