Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios

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Anonymous User
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Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios

Postby Anonymous User » Fri Sep 09, 2011 4:55 pm

I went to law school, not math school. So, if the DC cb/offer ratio is about 44%, and I have three callbacks, what is the % chance I get an offer?

IthacaIsWet
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Re: Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios

Postby IthacaIsWet » Fri Sep 09, 2011 4:58 pm

You're guaranteed 1.32 offers. Go celebrate!

In all seriousness, I don't think entire cities have a CB/Offer ratio. It varies by firm, and even then personality makes a huge difference.

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Re: Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios

Postby Anonymous User » Fri Sep 09, 2011 4:59 pm

IthacaIsWet wrote:You're guaranteed 1.32 offers. Go celebrate!

In all seriousness, I don't think entire cities have a CB/Offer ratio. It varies by firm, and even then personality makes a huge difference.


I know I'm just going off NALP aggregate numbers for DC. I'm just curious. 1.32 seems wrong... To be fair, though, that is the same number I came up with.

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Re: Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios

Postby Anonymous User » Fri Sep 09, 2011 5:00 pm

IthacaIsWet wrote:You're guaranteed 1.32 offers. Go celebrate!

In all seriousness, I don't think entire cities have a CB/Offer ratio. It varies by firm, and even then personality makes a huge difference.


+1

And also, there are going to be a larger-than-you-might-think number of people who would get offers from all three of those firms and a larger-than-you-might-think number of people who would get offers from none.

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Re: Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios

Postby Anonymous User » Fri Sep 09, 2011 5:00 pm

Anonymous User wrote:I went to law school, not math school. So, if the DC cb/offer ratio is about 44%, and I have three callbacks, what is the % chance I get an offer?


Chance of an offer is 44%. Chance of no offer is 56%. Chance of three no offers: .56*.56*.56 = 17.6%

Chance of at least 1 offer: 1-.176 = 82.4%

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Bildungsroman
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Re: Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios

Postby Bildungsroman » Fri Sep 09, 2011 5:01 pm

82%.

This meaningless and inaccurate prediction has been brought to you by today's sponsor, A Fundamental Misunderstanding of Both Probability and Hiring™.

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Re: Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios

Postby Anonymous User » Fri Sep 09, 2011 5:03 pm

I did go to math school. My advice to you is to forget anyone ever told you that people kept track of CB to Offer ratios. They are completely useless from an applicant's perspective.

Here's what you need to know: you are in the door. People in other fields would kill to participate in an interview process that netted offers to almost half of the people who came in.

kahechsof
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Re: Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios

Postby kahechsof » Fri Sep 09, 2011 5:07 pm

Anonymous User wrote:People in other fields would kill to participate in an interview process that netted offers to almost half of the people who came in.


And gave you only one chance in your career to get a job.

proverbs120
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Re: Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios

Postby proverbs120 » Fri Sep 09, 2011 5:15 pm

kahechsof wrote:And gave you only one chance in your career to get a job.


This is the anon from above, I don't know why I posted anon.

That is a totally fair point. I just think that's a risky way of thinking going into CBs. It's hard to play scared.

kahechsof
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Re: Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios

Postby kahechsof » Fri Sep 09, 2011 5:16 pm

proverbs120 wrote:
kahechsof wrote:And gave you only one chance in your career to get a job.


This is the anon from above, I don't know why I posted anon.

That is a totally fair point. I just think that's a risky way of thinking going into CBs. It's hard to play scared.


Fair.

whywhywhy
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Re: Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios

Postby whywhywhy » Fri Sep 09, 2011 5:19 pm

The probability that you get an offer from firm A is not independent of the probability that you get an offer from firm B. Therefore, you cannot draw any conclusions about the chance that you get an offer from the aggregate offer/CB ratio.

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AreJay711
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Re: Statistics/Probability question about cb/offer ratios

Postby AreJay711 » Fri Sep 09, 2011 5:19 pm

Bildungsroman wrote:82%.

This meaningless and inaccurate prediction has been brought to you by today's sponsor, A Fundamental Misunderstanding of Both Probability and Hiring™.

Well, actually just probability. The problem is they aren't entirely random or independent variables in play.

Edit: Beat to it.




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