Anonymous User wrote:
itbdvorm wrote:In response to a PM (thought could be useful for others):
Yes, I think Brexit will seriously affect the Magic Circle firms, at least in the near-term (and possibly permanently). With so much of their revenues denominated in pounds, this will really put a hurt on the overseas/US expansion plans. If you're a UK firm trying to make inroads into NYC (as all of them except Slaughters are trying to do), your ability to invest in dollars with a seriously weakened pound is going to be drastically limited. So either you're going to cut back on US investment (leaving the people here out to dry) or stay the course (hurting your profitability and making it more likely that some top folks in the UK pursue other opportunities).
Great opportunity for the US firms with serious UK presences (Latham, Skadden, Cleary, etc.) to poach some of the top talent from the Magic Circle.
Thanks for the really useful insight, and the last line really caught my eye. I assumed that US firms with a serious presence in the UK would be hurt by a post-Brexit business slowdown just as much as the Magic Circle. As a US student heading into recruitment season and now reconsidering a London focus, I assumed any UK office of any nationality was in a bad place. Am I right that you think US firms won't really suffer?
I don't. I actually think those are the ones who may get a boost here (as clients will have loads of questions regarding potential issues, transitioning businesses, opening up new outposts in other parts of Europe, etc.)
I expect the US firms with roughly "self-sufficient" UK branches will be fine, as the hit to the exchange rate of the pound should defray almost any costs of having less work. The firms where the UK branches are really funding the rest of the operation (i.e., Magic Circle) are going to take a big hit, as suddenly the NY outpost is 20% more expensive and still not really sending $$$ back